There are some great bargains on MTGO right now.
I usually write articles about strategy or trends because I think they are most valuable and because there are a lot of writers who do a better job picking cards than I can. Still, every now and then I see enough opportunity somewhere to make me want to write a card-picking article. So here you go.
MTGO prices are depressed right now. I think there are a few things at play.
- The MTGO PTQ season, which was supposed to be Modern, was canceled.
- Standard is moving toward rotation, so you have that normal downward trend.
- There may be some lingering effects from the last round of flashback drafts.
- People may be raising cash in anticipation of Conspiracy in paper and Vintage Masters on MTGO.
- The Beta Spotlight was not well received from what I saw. Fear may be a factor:
Whatever nasty mixture of the above factors is causing it, the situation is a good buying opportunity.
We’re looking for low-risk cards that will allow us to double our money or better. Here are the two main criteria:
- Established cards. We’re not speculating in the sense of buying cards that haven’t yet broken out or might be good next Standard. We don’t need to do that because there are enough good deals on already established cards. We’re looking for cards that are already Constructed playable and preferably have homes in real decks. Prognostic Sphinx might be a good speculation target, but it’s not what I’m after here because we don’t know for sure that it will impact Standard.
- Undervalued cards. We’re looking for cards that have come down substantially from their highs without good reason. This doesn’t mean cards with “room to run” in the sense that they can go even higher than they are now (Courser of Kruphix, for example). There’s not enough upside there. It also doesn’t mean cards that have dropped for good reason, like Force of Will (upcoming Vintage Masters reprint). I don’t know what the bottom on MTGO Force is and I have no interest in being anywhere near it when it becomes clear.
We’re looking for cards that will turn us a tidy profit just for getting back to their previous price and carry very little risk.
We’re looking for graphs like this:
Darkslick Shores has lost over half its value in the last month. It’s been at 1.5 tix recently and above it previously. This is exactly the kind of card I want to be buying. It’s virtually a guaranteed double-up with very little risk and it shouldn’t take that long, either. Check the other fast lands, as well. All of them but Razorverge Thicket are buys, in my opinion. In fact, Seachrome Coast is 0.37 tix right now.
That’s one. I’ll give you handful, but you should be able to find plenty more yourself. In general, you are looking for rares or uncommons because mythics tend to hold their value better. Also keep in mind that prices bounce quite a bit on MTGO. By the time you read this, the prices will have all changed at least a little. Maybe that works in your favor, maybe some of these cards run away before you have a chance to buy.
Next, Gavony Township is played in Pod and has lost about 75% of it’s value in two months. It’s getting pretty close to bulk and there is no way it stays there.
While we’re on this card, let me give you a tip. When you are buying very inexpensive cards like this, you run into the “less than a ticket” issue. It pays to use bot chains here because you can share credit across them, picking up a set of Townships from each of the bots in the chain (until they cap you).
When selling, don’t get greedy. As you can see from these charts, prices bounce up and down like crazy on cards like this. There are no transaction costs and you will surely have another chance to buy, so you don’t need to hold on for the absolute highest price. Any time you can package cards for an even number of tickets and make a decent return it’s a fine idea to go ahead and do so. If you buy at 0.16 tix and sell them 3-for-1-tix, you’ve still doubled up and walk away with full tickets.
Tectonic Edge is a card I always keep my eye on. I’ve ridden the peaks and valleys on it more than once, buying as low as 0.25 tix and selling for a buck. It is holding at 0.61 tix right now.
It’s not only Modern cards, either. Temple of Abandon is about at an all-time low. The Temples will either be the best or second best set of duals in the new Standard, and either one of those things means it is too cheap. The UG, BW, and RB (Born of the Gods) Temples are also under one ticket right now.
Scavenging Ooze is closing in on its all-time low. No need to get greedy with this Modern powerhouse and wait for a bottom, in my opinion. It’s already a great buy. Same with Deathrite Shaman. They might drop a bit more as rotation gets closer, but they might not. Getting Ooze at 4.5 tix is just great.
Last one. Chandra, Pyromaster, is at an all-time-low-since-we-knew-it-was-good. This card showed up in the finals of the Modern Grand Prix less than two weeks ago, guys. Is it getting reprinted in M15? Almost certainly. Garruk, Primal Hunter hit 20 tix in its second printing, and Jace, Memory Adept hit 15 in its second run.
No big takeaways from this week’s article other than this one: there is a ton of value to be had on MTGO right now. You will find plenty of great buys other than the ones I’ve listed if you look around. Good luck!
Thanks for reading. Find me on Twitter, @acmtg, or leave a comment below.