Investing 204 – What is the Value of a Short-Term Pick?

Brian Dale

The Dude abides.

I don’t have to take this abuse from you, I have hundreds of people dying to abuse me.

Well, here’s another nice mess you’ve gotten me into.

Congratulations! You have slogged through a sea of numbers to get here. The last couple Investing 200 articles were short but dense. We broke down each of the Brew Crew’s picks in a sterile environment, compared each against the other, and awarded scores. But what is the value of their picks?

Let start by reviewing the headline stats:

Jason’s 30-day average: 27% per trade
Corbin’s 30-day average: 26% per trade
Marcel’s 30-day average:8.4% per trade
Ryan’s 30-day average: 7% per trade

Let’s put this into perspective: if you had purchased all the picks of any of the Brew Crew each week, you would have increased the value of your Magic portfolio. Combined, they offered over 10% average returns per month!

For those of you who are unfamiliar with the power of compounding interest, here is a year-long example of 10% a month:

January $100
February $110
March $121
April $133
May $146
June $161
July $177
August $194
September $214
October $236
November $259
December $285
Next year’s total: $314

According to Kiplinger.com’s investing tools, the top large-company mutual fund in the last 10 years averaged only 12.56% per year!

Before calling a pick, our heroes try to identify whether it has upside or downside at its current value. Correctly identifying the direction a card is heading is actually more important then its target price. So when it come to successfully identifying that trend, here are their 30-day success rates:

Jason 40%
Marcel 37.5%
Ryan 37%
Corbin 35%

While the results are less then 50%, no Crew member experienced a negative return. Consider what that means to you. Let’s say you chose one pick to purse from each given podcast. Even though your odds of a pick going up in the next 30 days were a little under 50%, the amount a pick could go down was significantly limited and your upside potential was tremendous. In many cases, the guys identify a trend or opportunity correctly, but either identify it too late or overestimate the target price.

These results excluded cards that moved less then 20%. Magic cards have been experiencing significant growth over the last couple of years and card values as a whole are rising a little bit each month. Different websites have spreads that can easily top 20%. If we included the moves under 20%, each Crew member’s success rate would rise to over 60%, but we would be including a lot of statistical static. So these rates are above and beyond the normal incremental moves of the market at large.

It’s important to point out that even with these success rates, each Crew member returned positive results overall. Their percentage losers were all overwhelmed by the gains of their winners. This is a form of “return alpha,” where your gains are higher then other returns in the same risk pool.

” But wait!” you say, “I listen every week and I didn’t get anywhere near that return!” This is where the vacuum of results disappears and is replaced by the reality of your returns. Not only is it unlikely that you bought and sold each pick, they don’t want you to.

I asked Jason and Corbin how they would feel if their picks of the week completely sold out on TCGplayer every Friday:

Jason: “I would be disappointed in our listenership if they blindly followed our calls. We’re giving advice. I think if we were seen as having that much pull it would adversely affect the market in a bad way. I hope we never get that many blind adherents. ”

Corbin: “To be honest, I wouldn’t want this to happen if it would mean that people are buying because we told them to. The goal is not for cards that have flat-lined for a year to then sell out the day we mention them. That should never happen. People should take our advice into consideration, but ultimately make up their own mind on what to buy. I don’t consider my advice ‘good’ if it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. I want to help direct people to cards that are showing signs of rising in price in the future, not create hype spikes based on what we say.”

Unless you track every trade and every decision, it’s likely your confirmation bias is causing you to remember only the biggest choices that affected you. It is also likely that you are not giving the Crew credit if they offer an opinion that is the same as your own.

For example, you might say, “I think I should trade these [card]Thragtusk[/card]s away this weekend, but I’m not sure.” Then Corbin says, “I love Merfolk and I cannot lie! Also, sell [card]Thragtusk[/card].” So he confirms your notions and you trade it away. All the while, your memory is biased in a way that you get the credit in your own mind.

Another issue is the card that you avoided because of a sell call. Your card portfolio is better off without it, but you don’t have a line item for “what could have been.”

The next question is how to use the picks. The first thing you need to do is identify your goal (see Sander van der Zee’s Setting Your Goals). Then identify which Brew Crew member’s strength are best aligned with that goal (see Investing 202 and 203). Then have fun. With the raw data put out by these guys, you can run almost any system you want.

For example:

1. If you had bought every pick that Jason and Corbin made, then sold each 30 days later and bought the picks that Ryan and Marcel had made 30 days before, you would have returned over 80% by rotation.

2. Make a list of every card you want a playset of and wait for the buy signal from the Crew.

3. Sell cards you’re not using when the Crew calls a top and buy back in after they drop.

The key principle to remember is that their picks have returned statistically way above average. Your job is to take this information and apply it to your own plans.

So what is the value of short-term pick? On paper, it’s 10%. In real life, it’s somewhere between -40% and 300%. And stories about your triple up, or your unexpected losses…. well, those are priceless.

Casually Infinite – Understanding EV, Part 2

Marc DeArmond

In my last article, I discussed all the parts that play into estimated value (EV). This article is going to have lots of terms and math from the previous article, so if you haven’t read it yet, I’d recommend going back and doing that first.

Picking a Queue

The math behind picking a queue takes a couple of different things into account. First off, there is the real entry fee for the event. For Constructed and phantom events, you only have to take into account the ticket cost for picking a queue, though the cost of building a deck is also a factor. For Limited events, you need to consider both the ticket cost plus the pack spread for each pack you open. This represents the amount you paid for the pack minus the value you can expect to get from opening each pack—which you are essentially “paying” each time you open a pack.

Queue	Pack Price	Pack EV	Pack Spread
Theros	3.10	0.86	2.24
M14	3.48	1.23	2.25
RTR	3.86	1.37	2.49
GTC	3.63	0.89	2.74
DMG	2.10	0.85	1.25

Fortunately, MTGO is kind enough to reward you for opening packs in order to compete in tournaments by increasing the prize support or decreasing the entry fee compared to Constructed queues. The current Constructed 5-3-2-2 queues cost a massive 6‡ to enter. Meanwhile, an 8-4 Theros draft costs you 2‡ plus the pack spread three times (2.24 x 3 = 6.72) for a total entry cost of 8.72‡. The reality is that it is more expensive to enter a Limited queue than it is to enter a Constructed queue.

As an aside, the difference between Limited and Constructed is hidden in deck cost, which is something more difficult to calculate. If you need to build a 400‡ Esper Control deck in Standard to hold your own, the cost of your individual queues will go up significantly. You could possibly sell back the cards you used to build your Esper deck and perhaps even make a profit there. The basic logic stands that if you have a strong Constructed deck, then EV is in favor of you playing Constructed over Limited. I don’t happen to have (or want) a strong Constructed deck so I’ll just be looking at the Limited queues for now.

What to Do With It All?

All of this information makes for a massive math problem. But the simplest way to take it into perspective is to assume that you are an average player rather than a superb player. If you assume yourself to be average, you can calculate out the average prize won from an event. In the case of an eight-man Swiss draft, there are 12 packs paid out, so the average person gets 1.5 packs. Oddly enough, this is the same average as an 8-4 draft. However, a 4-3-2-2 has only 11 prize packs paid out, meaning that the average person gets 1.375 packs. Therefore, you are better off playing Swiss or 8-4s than 4-3-2-2s. Unfortunately, the math doesn’t stop there.

Many Queues = Many Options

When you start looking at EV, you need to look at all your options. Comparing the three draft options is easy because they all have the same cost and require the same number of boosters. Your only question is which format to draft. The answer, according to the math, is always the format with the lowest pack spread. However, other events will occasionally provide a better EV than drafts. For example, a four-booster Sealed event requires an extra pack to play. This means there is an additional pack spread you have to make up from the results. However, there are an additional nine boosters offered as prizes, for a total of 21 booster prizes versus the 12 in 8-4 and Swiss drafts. Considering the pack spread is always less than the value of a pack, playing four-booster Sealed events actually has a better prize structure for the entry cost. Below is a breakdown of some events.

The below is based on the Theros prices of pack cost 3.02‡ and pack value of .82‡. These prices fluctuate all the time, so the fact that these numbers a probably a few days out of date isn’t that significant.

Queue	Packs	Tix	Players	Total Prizes	Average Total EV
4-Booster Sealed	4	2	8	18	-3.925
8-4 Draft	3	2	8	12	-4.01
4-3-2-2 Draft	3	2	8	11	-4.3875
Swiss Draft	3	2	8	12	-4.01
Sealed Daily	6	2	16	53	-5.07625
Premier Sealed(65)	6	2	65	228	4.48676923
Premier Sealed(128)	6	2	128	228	-9.700625

Average Total EV = [ (Total all value of prizes) + (Total value of packs opened) – (all entry costs including pack cost) ] / Number of Players

Average Total EV = [ (Total value of all prizes) – (Number of Packs * Pack Spread) – (Entry Ticket Fee)] / Number of Players

As you’ll notice, playing in the Premier Sealed at 65 players is a much better value than playing against 128 players. This is because the prize structure in Premier events doesn’t change based on the number of participants. If you get into a smaller pool with the same prize results, your chance of winning prizes goes up significantly. By what we have listed here, your prizes in a four-booster Sealed event are actually better than any other options. But this will change as pack spread alters. In formats with a lower pack spread, opening more packs (by playing Sealed over Draft) benefits you more as you get a step up in prizes that exceeds the value. In formats with a high pack spread, opening fewer boosters will lead to a better EV.

What’s the Best Queue?

Overall, premier events with a low turnout are fantastic value. They’re kind of like going to a PTQ with only 16 people. After low-turnout premier events, the next best queues are phantom events that pay out in packs (not phantom points), like when Thursday Night Magic Online and Two Ticket Tuesdays are around. These events provide great value for the cost.

In phantom events, there is no pack spread to make up, entry fees can be pretty low, and prizes are generally pretty solid. Following that, four-booster Sealed remains a solid value format, though many people hate it. Then Sealed daily events or Draft, depending on the pack spread. If the pack spread is under 1.8‡, Sealed Daily is generally better than Draft, based on the prize numbers right now. Please be aware that factors can change quickly, though. Keep an eye on prerelease and release queues, which will sometimes offer even greater prizes. Born of the Gods Sealed release queues pay out one additional pack for 4-0 and three additional packs for 3-1 over Theros Sealed daily event.

Swiss vs. 8-4

There are two more things to cover in this analysis. The first is win percentage. Obviously, if you win more matches, your EV goes up. If you’re “guaranteed” to be in the top 50% of an event, then playing events like premier Sealed become a significantly better value. If you’re winning below 50% of your matches, you want to play anything Swiss.

One of the most common questions is when should you switch from Swiss to 8-4 Drafts. My answer is two-fold. First, you should wait to switch until you can afford to receive no prizes for several events. Breaking even in an 8-4 requires that you win one out of every three queues or place second every other queue. Pulling home no prizes will happen when you play 8-4s. If you can’t afford to do that three or four times in a row without running out of tickets, you should probably play Swiss formats.

Secondly, you should probably wait until you can reliably win over 50% of your games. Remember in Swiss, you can lose your first match and still go on to receive prizes. This is not the case in an 8-4. If you’re rocking a win percentage around 60%, you could get better value from an 8-4 than Swiss. One of the problems with single elimination is that the second-best deck doesn’t necessarily place second. I receive some consolation from watching my opponent from the first round, who fought a hard earned 2-1 victory over me, go on to place first in the draft overall. Even if my deck and skill is second only to him, the fact that we got paired together in the first or second round cuts me from prizes entirely. If you’re the best player with the best deck, you win, but depending on how things fall out in the seeding, second best doesn’t guarantee you anything in an 8-4 draft.

Oh, and you should never play 4-3-2-2s. Every time you do Marshall Sutcliffe main decks a [card]Fog[/card].

Dingus Egg

Final Notes

The final thing that is worth mentioning is that no EV can really substitute for a format you hate. If you think Sealed is the worst thing Magic has designed since [card]Dingus Egg[/card], don’t play it. Even though Dragon’s Maze has one of the best pack spreads you’ll find, if you hate drafting in a heavily multicolor format where you’re forced to grab gates over cards you want to play, don’t draft it. While it does affect your bottom line, you are going to be playing in a non-premier queue for up to four hours. Don’t spend those four hours fuming against MTGO because you entered the format you hate that might save you one ticket. You have to enter a queue that you’ll enjoy. If it’s just work, you’re better offering to mow your neighbor’s lawn because the EV of that is probably $10, and few queues can match that kind of value.

Shifting Metagame

Enmou Gao

Hello, fellow speculators!

Are you all looking forward to the prerelease this weekend? I know I’m not, as Born of the Gods has close to zero implications for Modern. As if it wasn’t bad enough that the prerelease is on Super Bowl weekend.

What everyone does care about is the upcoming Modern banned and restricted list changes that will be announced roughly a week after this article. The general gist among pros is that [card]Wild Nacatl[/card] and [card]Bitterblossom[/card] are the most likely to be unbanned, while [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] is the most likely to be on the chopping block. Keep in mind that this is nothing more than speculation at this point.

Enough talk about talk about the banned list, though, I’ve already covered the topic extensively in my previous article here. Let’s move on to the main topic of today’s discussion: the MTG finance metgame.

Shifting Metagame

I wanted to cover a topic that I’ve brought up on reddit, and it’s the idea that MTG Finance has a metagame.

What metagame, you say?

The current metagame is to bandwagon-buy cards that are being bought out. For example, one might buy when a card like [card]Summoner’s Egg[/card] is debuted in a Travis Woo brew or when the supply of a card dips below 100 vendor listings on TCGplayer.

Let’s look at the past month’s worth of specs that have spiked to make up the current MTG finance metagame.

Splinter Twin

[card]Splinter Twin[/card] is a rare from a set released over three years ago. It is played as a four-of in a tier-one Modern deck. The card doubled over the course of a day from $5 to $10 and has stayed stable since, albeit at low supply of vendor listings. Going into Modern season, the card likely still has more room to grow if there’s yet another shortage on the internet.

Phyrexian Obliterator

[card]Phyrexian Obliterator[/card] is a mythic rare from over two years ago that sees play in a popular Modern mono-black devotion brew as a two- or three-of. It is a casual favorite because making an opponent sacrifice permanents is dirty. The card spiked on two occasions, culminating in a doubling of price from about $14 to $28. Prices are falling overall because Mono-Black Devotion isn’t actually a competitive deck.

Genesis Wave

[card]Genesis Wave[/card] is a rare that is three years old and played in Modern Green Devotion as a four-of win condition. The card also sees a good amount of EDH play according to MetaMox.com. Prices have actually gone up from spike levels of $5 to the current $6, suggesting that the demand for the card is real.

Birthing Pod

[card]Birthing Pod[/card] is very similar to [card]Splinter Twin[/card] in that it’s a rare played in a tier-one Modern decks as a four-of. Likewise, it doubled from $5 to $10 overnight, albeit the price has given a little. I think this is because there is more supply, given that it’s a two-year-old card as opposed to a three-year-old card like [card]Splinter Twin[/card]. Also like [card]Splinter Twin[/card], there is more growth for the card so long as it’s not banned in Modern.

Summoner’s Egg

[card]Summoner’s Egg[/card] is getting to the really shady territory in that it’s just seeing play in Travis Woo’s Modern brew as a four-of. Partly due to the price jump that [card]Disrupting Shoal[/card] saw, speculators didn’t want to miss out on another spike and bought the card out. Egg is now a $4 card, up from its previous $0.60 price. I don’t think the card is done dropping from its current price yet, because the deck isn’t any good.

Wurmcoil Engine

[card]Wurmcoil Engine[/card] is a mythic rare from a set over three years old that is commonly played in Modern Tron as a three- or four-of. It also sees a fair amount of play in EDH. Its price has steadily gone up from under $10 at the beginning of 2013 to the current $23, and the card could go up even further during Modern season.

Coming Out Ahead

I hope that this review has struck a chord. If you want to actually come out ahead in MTG Finance, it’s about the fundamentals, not trying to bandwagon into hype. Just because the card goes up some 600%, like in the case of [card]Summoner’s Egg[/card], doesn’t mean that there’s money to be made. You have to find a buyer for the cards before you can sell.

Based on previous cards, there are some general inferences that can be drawn for future speculating.

If you haven’t read my colleague Brainstorm Brewery writer Anthony Capece’s article, Rare is the New Uncommon, I highly recommend reading it here. Mythic rare is a big deal because it is literally half the supply of rares. Even if there isn’t a great demand for a card, like in the case of [card]Phyrexian Obliterator[/card], it will likely at least maintain its price. If it’s a card that is a multi-format staple, like [card]Wurmcoil Engine[/card], there’s no telling where the price will settle.
On a similar note, supply reigns supreme over demand. Sure, demand might spike due to a new deck or brew, but demand is fickle. The card that everyone wants today is likely not going to be the card that everyone wants tomorrow. [card]Kami of the Crescent Moon[/card]’s price is going down so slowly because where in the world is someone supposed to find an eight-year-old card that never saw any play?
Cards that don’t become staples will go back down, albeit to levels higher than previous price points. [card]Genesis Wave[/card] was a huge deal on the day that it spiked, but how much profit was there to make on a card that sold at $5 at its highest point? Unless you were one of the first onto the card, getting in at the lowest point of $2, there was very little money to be made.
Market algorithms are constantly changing. I’m glad to be one of the first to have written about the number of TCG vendor listings as a way to predict future price spikes here. But nowadays cards are constantly flirting with 50 or fewer vendor listings. It’s time to go back to the fundamentals. Find the next gap in demand and supply. Buy into the next undervalued card that no one’s discovered yet and get it for cheap. When the price finally catches up, not due to hype, but actual demand, you’ll know that you made the right call (credit to Jason Alt for the concept). For me, that card is [card]Phyrexian Metamorph[/card] because of its massive EDH appeal and the tight buylist spread, despite seeing close to zero competitive play.

I hope that this article was informative on the most up-to-date info in the MTG finance world. I continue to be intrigued by the ever evolving nature of the metagame, where to think like the average person is to be behind.

Until next time!

The Spike Feed Episode 22 – To Ban or Not to Ban

The Spike Feed 0:44:28

In this week’s episode we go over Cameron’s recent pursuit of Legacy, discuss some of the new spoiled cards, and speculate wildly about the fate of the banned list for Modern. Thanks for listening!

Your hosts:

Dustin Gore

Cameron McCoy – @Cameron_mccoy

Curtis Nower – @CurtisNow

Music by Micah Jones

C(ube) + C(ommander) Magic Factory #2 – Mind Seize Review

Max Brett

Welcome to the second installment of C+C Magic Factory, where we’ll be reviewing the Mind Seize Commander 2013 deck with regards to its impact on the Cube and Commander formats. So let’s get to it!

Here’s a review of the grading system we’ll be using. The first grade for each card is a Commander grade, the second is a Cube grade.

Commander:

[A+]: Best in Class. These cards are at the top of the list for any deck wanting the effect.

[A]: Excellent card according to two or more of: power level, size-of-effect, card interaction, or politics.

[B]: Excellent card according to one of: power level, size-of-effect, card interaction, or politics.

[C]: Solid role-filler or theme-supporter.

[D]: Playable, but better options exist.

[F]: A knife at a gun fight.

Cube:

[A+]: First-pick card on power level alone or tier-one for associated archetype(s).

[A]: High-powered alone or in the context of two or more archetypes.

[B]: High-powered in the context of one archetype.

[C]: Role-filler in a niche archetype or mid-powered utility card.

[D]: Might see play in large or restricted lists (e.g. peasant)

[F]: Not playable in Cube.

Grixis Deck: Mind Seize

Commanders: [card]Jeleva, Nephalia’s Scourge[/card] [B-]/[F], [card]Nekusar, the Mindrazer[/card] [B+]/[F], [card]Thraximundar[/card] [B]/[D-]

With everyone talking about Mind Seize based on the inclusion of [card]True-Name Nemesis[/card] and [card]Baleful Strix[/card], it’s easy to miss the fact that the deck comes with three sweet commanders. [card]Thraximundar[/card] was the go-to Grixis general for control and acquiring one just got a lot easier. As for the new class, my groups have players building both Jeleva and Nekusar, which speaks to the appeal of their respective strategies. Casting other players’ spells is fun, as is drawing massive amounts of cards, especially when the latter comes with a metric ton of group damage stapled to it. Group card draw is often more aggressively costed than targeted draw, making for interesting and interactive games with Nekusar where everyone gets to see a bunch of cards and cast lots of spells. I am a proponent of [card]Howling Mine[/card] effects in EDH, since it can take a glacial multiplayer game and cut an hour or two off the total. I suspect that Nekusar decks have a corollary of fun for everyone for just that reason. What keeps these commanders from higher grades is that the power level isn’t quite there. Jeleva is quite fragile and will often whiff, even if your own deck is built to optimize her ability. Nekusar is a five-mana 2/4 with no natural defense. Once he has died once, you need to hit seven mana, in a deck without green, to replay him. And this is pretty important, since having him in play is so central to the bear hug game plan. Thrax costs seven to begin with, and realistically, you just want him to clean up after you’ve sewn up the game. That said, all three commanders are great fun, have high ceilings for power level, and are nice inclusions in the deck.

In Cube, they suffer from the same problem that all these commanders do—shard sections are non-existent or have one card each. All three need to compete with [card]Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker[/card] for that slot, and they also need to get in line behind [card]Cruel Ultimatum[/card] before they will see the play in a 40-card deck.

New Cards

[card]Baleful Force[/card] [C+]/[F]

As an overcosted vanilla fatty, this card must be evaluated on its ability to draw a card at the beginning of each upkeep. This gets better the more players you have in your games, and so is naturally at its worst in Cube, where cards at this mana cost get cheated into play and do a lot more to win the game than come with two [card]Phyrexian Arena[/card]s. In EDH, you can expect to have some multiplayer games where even if you don’t get to untap with Force, it will still draw you three or four cards—decent for a worst-case scenario. It’s nice that they finished the cycle of Forces with this release, and of all five, this one is the most exciting to play with—drawing cards is always good and it comes in the color best suited to reanimate it.

[card]Diviner Spirit[/card] [D]/[F]

Perhaps this card was designed to fill the hole left by the [card]Trade Secrets[/card] banning, and in that vein, I could see it creating some fun moments in games with weaker lists. What keeps it out of the big leagues is that for a measly extra blue mana, you can get [card]Consecrated Sphinx[/card]. So this card needs a home where you want your opponent(s) to be drawing extra cards. The only way I see this getting played in cube is if someone decides to construct a backdraft cube, in which case I think this goes from unplayable to auto-include on humor alone.

[card]Hooded Horror[/card] [D-]/[F]

See Power Hungry review.

[card]Terra Ravager[/card] [F]/[F]

Needs more trample. Not even all trample, all the time—a little bit of trample would suffice. A clause that gave [card]Terra Ravager[/card] trample if its power were 10 or greater would actually make this card an exciting way to hate on the ramp player. But as it is, you know it’s just going to get chumped by something [card]Avenger of Zendikar[/card] pooped out the turn before you die. To see play in Cube, it would need trample and haste (and would likely still just barely make the cut).

[card]True-Name Nemesis[/card] [D+]/[A+]

The card that has all the EDH players up in arms over making Mind Seize scarce and overpriced is ironically not very good in the format it was supposedly designed for. Obviously, it’s better in 1v1, but even there, a 3/1 unblockable creature/unkillable wall doesn’t matter nearly as much, given that it’s a 40-life format.

In Cube, this card is the same beating it is in Legacy but with an even greater discrepancy in power level between it and the worst cards in your opponent’s deck. I’ve seen it cast a few times—in those games sometimes the True-Name player would have won anyway and sometimes it died immediately. It does have the power to swing a game, especially against a green deck, but since we play a format where cards like [card]Balance[/card] are legal, we expect games to be swung by powerful cards. What sends True-Name really over the top is that if you see it in your first pack you can build towards it by snarfing all the equipment and blue tempo. If you see it pack three, you take it and settle for it being merely “excellent”. There is some talk in the community about it being too good, but in our group that has yet to be substantiated. Any rare/powered list should be running this.

[card]Curse of Chaos[/card] [D]/[F]

See Power Hungry review.

[card]Curse of Inertia[/card] [D-]/[F]

Like with [card]Curse of Chaos[/card], the effect of [card]Curse of Inertia[/card] is so small that it won’t be warping players’ actions. It can make defense harder for the cursed player or allow someone to cast two spells in a turn, but these best-case-scenarios should not be worth a card in your deck. That this card compares unfavorably to [card]Hidden Strings[/card] in 1v1 does not bode well for its future in Cube or any serious deck.

[card]Curse of Shallow Graves[/card] [C]/[A-]

See Power Hungry review.

[card]Eye of Doom[/card] [B-]/[F]

The grade of B- is totally contingent on the Eye’s use in a multiplayer game with four or more people, since in 1v1 this card basically reads “6,T: Welcome to card disadvantage, population – you.” However, in a large game, this says: “You see that guy who’s winning? Now he’s got some catching up to do.” The fewer players in a game, the worse this card becomes (to the point where it’s actively bad), but I think the upside, fun factor, and ability to swing games will make players find room for it in some decks.

[card]Illusionist’s Gambit[/card] [B-]/[F]

Here we have yet another unplayable card in 1v1 games. If I wanted a four-mana blue [card]Fog[/card], I’d play [card]Sleep[/card]. Like [card]Eye of Doom[/card], the best-case-scenario for this in multiplayer games is attractive: sending one player’s alpha strike crashing into an unwitting opponent, like when, as a child, I would ram my Hot Wheels into each other to see which one would come away most damaged. The difficulty comes in sculpting a board state where you will get to play the Gambit for that effect, as you basically need to keep four mana up at all times. Unlike [card]Eye of Doom[/card], this card is best in three-player games, since casting it removes any form of option from your opponent’s next attack. Even though the overall power level is low, I will be brewing with this because I do play a lot of three- and four-player games and I think I can squeeze a few sweet stories out of this card.

[card]Tempt with Reflections[/card] [D]/[F]

See my Power Hungry review for a detailed discussion of the Tempting Offer mechanic.

[card]Tempt with Reflections[/card] is similar to [card]Tempt with Vengeance[/card], since the outcome of opponents accepting the offer is predictable and not deck-dependent (the target is chosen once cast). Therefore, this tempting offer has the same political implications and should result in no one accepting the offer so long as everyone at the table knows what’s good for them. Sadly, there is no deck (especially a Cube deck) that wants a bad [card]Clone[/card], save for populate shenanigans. Making X hasty elementals is a new effect for Magic, but cloning is not and there are many better clones out there.

Notable Reprints

[card]Baleful Strix[/card] [B]/[A]

As if this deck didn’t have enough value already, we get a stellar reprint here with Strix. Consensus in the Cube community is that this is the top card in the Dimir guild, as it provides beautiful early defense for a control deck and serves as an evasive attacker with rare card advantage for an aggro deck, and all at an incredibly cheap cost of two mana. In EDH, the card turns out to still be quite good, as it deters players from attacking you with pretty much anything but tokens. Also note that drawing a card is fine at any point in the game. Sadly, this card isn’t in the Eternal Bargain deck. I want to jam [card]Master Transmuter[/card] in there and start going off, but I think Wizards intentionally swapped some cards around to give players who buy several decks a puzzle to solve.

[card]Decree of Pain[/card] [B+]/[C]

[card]Decree of Pain[/card] just left my cube to make room for the [card]Pox[/card] package, and up until then did some work. It got drafted and was even maindecked sometimes, but it never over performed. It’s funny to think of a card that wipes the board, draws all the cards, and has a cheap mode as “utility,” but in Cube control decks that’s just what those things are. This is a great reprint for EDH, as players love to call for board wipe once a game is getting unwinnable. This is one of the better ones to rip since it juxtaposes the top threat at the table with the caster instead of just bringing everyone back to square one. That I was able to trade my extras out at $10 apiece before this was released should not be ignored.

[card]Mirari[/card] [B]/[D+]

Mirari is a nice inclusion here as it fits nicely with Jeleva’s mechanic and generally provides an ability EDH players like. Being able to get one easily is nice for those that missed the reprint in Time Spiral. While Mirari could be the sort of artifact cubes could go for (a high-powered repeatable effect), nowadays it is just too slow. Any serious ramp deck wants to draft big things to cast, not small or midrange spells that need you to draw a one-of to provide a big effect.

[card]Propaganda[/card] [A-]/[C+]

As innocuous as it may seem, this effect rules in EDH and is basically a [card]Moat[/card] that also prevents flyers from attacking, at least until the ramp player hits a googol mana. Commander players want, above all, to play their stuff. Accepting any amount of damage at the cost of development is unheard of. What keeps this from being truly bonkers is that often players won’t attack anyway and are content to leave guys back on defense and play for the long game.

I also run this card in my Cube to support control, but understand it is leaving some lists as competition in blue is ultra-tight. Nevertheless, some players may appreciate the new art.

[card]Starstorm[/card] [C]/[F+]

Starstorm is a card I had nearly forgotten about until seeing it reprinted here. It has cycling, is an instant, and is easier to cast than [card]Savage Twister[/card]. This makes it a strict upgrade to the Gruul version and could be a card players look for to make that swap. Cycling is also the only thing keeping this above a straight F for Cube, since red decks want their sweepers to either blow up lands or dome the opponent.

[card]Strategic Planning[/card] [D]/[C-]

This novel P3K reprint is difficult to evaluate. It provides cheap card selection which means it’s neither too good nor too bad, so one must ultimately decide whether the colorless mana is worth putting two random cards off the top in the bin. I found it too weak in testing to be maindecked.

[card]Temple Bell[/card] [C]/[F]

I like this sort of effect in EDH, as it can speed up the game and serve as a balancing act in larger games, since catching up to the winning player is more attainable when everyone gets two cards per turn. Temple Bell also has the benefit of avoiding the scenario where everyone else gets to draw off your [card]Howling Mine[/card] before killing it and denying you the draw. That it combos well with Nekusar makes it a great choice for this precon.

Overall – Value: [A+] / Playability: [D]

Ironically, this deck would get A+ on value if it were True-Name and 99 [card]Island[/card]s, at least until Legacy players get their fill. However, the situation is much better than that since we also get three solid commanders, Strix, and some non-negligible reprints in [card]Decree of Pain[/card], [card]Strategic Planning[/card] and [card]Mirari[/card], not to mention the [card]Sol Ring[/card] and [card]Command Tower[/card].

Despite the handful of really sweet cards, the deck as packaged is pretty bad; only a mill theme connects the two new commanders, yet a mill deck wouldn’t support either. Mind Seize has some excellent cards but also a lot of duds, so expect to pillage this one for parts to get full value.

Next time, we’ll review Eternal Bargain.

Contact:

Email: djkensai at gmail dot com

Twitter: @djkensai

Pitt Imps Podcast – #53 – Oops We Messed Up

Pitt Imps 02:37:02

In this installment of the Pitt Imps we go over the GP in Sacramento as well as the SCG open in Columbus. Lvl 2 Judge Frank Tavern comes in to go over some of the interactions with the new set and mechanics. Will and Ryan had some personal issues so I have Buttercup on to full their shoes for the day. I also apologize for poor choice of words by one of us and me not catching it during the edit of our last show. Amongst other topics.

Your hosts: Angelo, Will, & Ryan

Angelo’s Twitter: @Ganksuou

Will’s Twitter: @will_flacid

Ryan’s Twitter: @brotheryan

Show’s Email: [email protected]

Serum Visions: Brewing Methods 101

Andrew Colman

Welcome back to Serum Visions, everyone!

These last couple of weeks have been spoiler season for us. As far as Cube goes, it’s been fairly slow going. [card]Brimaz, King of Oreskos[/card] is a snap auto-include in a cube of any size. Sadly for the Puzzle Box, it’s a bit out of our price range. [card]Courser of Kruphix[/card] seems pretty good, and after the presale prices have receded to their normal levels, I think it’s got a pretty good shot at getting into the Puzzle Box list.

However, we are not here to talk about Cube, but rather, beer. As I said in the introduction article to this series, I’ll be trying to take inspiration from the community for these articles. There is no spoiler season in the beer world…yet. But what this makes me think of is how excited the brewers of the MTG world get over new cards. These brewers get to look at all 13,000 existing cards in light of the new ones day by day. This led me to the think about how brewers of beer and decks alike have individual methods which they can apply to later brews or new cards.

It was this fundamental method that inspired me. We all have our way of setting things up and getting to the brewing process. It is a lens that we have that we see all things through. Some things will work for one person and not for another because our lenses are all different. For many home brewers, that lens is often our setup, how we actually make the beer, and what kind we like. For instance, if a home brewer has a temperature-regulated freezer, he then looks at ingredients as having the possibility of being a lager. Those without that equipment simply can’t brew that type of beer. A home brewer who makes his beer as strictly a cost-saving method will view a $13 packet of wet yeast as strictly worse than a $2 packet of dry yeast. On the contrary, for someone like myself, who is not really concerned about drinking a lot of beer, but instead enjoys the adventure of tasting and trying new things, that $13 packet of yeast looks pretty damn good.

But where we all need to start is with method. How do we actually make the beer? I’m going to try and help you to figure out, if you don’t already know, which type of brewing method is right for you.

Each process I’m going to describe is a clear level up from the one previous. From can to kit, the quality of the beer increases dramatically. From kit to steep, the variation levels up drastically. From steep to partial mash, the complexity takes a giant leap forward. And from partial mash to all grain, the process, control, and complexity are increased tenfold. With each level, the quality of the beer get better. However, it is necessary to note that it is not unheard of for a partial mash or even a steeped beer to win competitions. It’s not as common (for a multitude of reasons), but it is very possible! Keep that in mind when you are trying to figure out how to start making your own beer.

The Methods

Can

This method is one step forward, two steps back. And since this is step one, you end up in the negative. I would suggest just skipping this step. But for the sake of completion, I will not ignore it. What you do is crack a can of hopped malt extract and add it to a carboy. You then add a few pounds of white sugar to get your desired alcohol content and top up with water and pitch the yeast. The one step forward is that you actually are required to add something extra, other than water, to your carboy before you pitch the yeast. If you choose to go this route, make sure the sugar you add has been boiled for 15 minutes and cooled before you add it to the carboy. There may be some nasties (technical term for bacteria that can cause an infection) in the bag of sugar. The two steps back comes with the fact that this beer is terrible! I could go on a bit of a rant about this, but I’ll contain myself. But if you’re curious, hit me up on Twitter @awcolman and we’ll get this party started!

Kit

This is the most simple of all methods of making beer. It is basically the same as making wine. You buy a large box full of highly concentrated wert, put it into a carboy, and top the carboy off with water. Add your yeast, which will be provided with the kit, and let it ferment. Bottle it up, wait a few weeks, and consume.

This is a really great way to get started. You get pretty good beer at the end of the process and you get to learn the flow of how fermentation and bottling works. If you have never made your own wine or beer I recommend you start here.

Steep

Here we have arrived to what I would call home brewing. Up until this point, we have been making beer at home. As I said, I think you should start with a kit, so my intent is not to demean that method. But with the steep method, you actually get to start adjusting what your beer is going to taste like, thus making it your own.

This is also the first time we get to talk about setup. Up until now, we have only needed a funnel, carboy, and a separate vessel from which to bottle.

Using the steep method, you are going to need a pot and a heat source, probably a stove element, but there are other options. Armed with this pot and heat source, you are game to start making some really awesome beer!

How this method works: take your specialty grains (refer to my article Grain to Glass if you need some help with the jargon) and you add them to a pot that is full of cold water. You can either have them in a mesh bag or add them straight to the water and strain them out later. You then turn on the heat and remove the grains when the heat reaches 170 degrees Fahrenheit. Let the pot get up to a boil, then start your timer for 60 minutes. During this time, add your hops according to your hop schedule. At the 15-minute mark, add your malt extract after you have taken the pot off of the element (so you don’t scorch the extract). Bring the pot back up to a boil for another fifteen minutes. Once this is done, you need to cool the beer off as fast as possible. This may take up to an hour. Once the beer has cooled to the right temperature, add the wert to the carboy and top it up with water. Pitch the yeast and proceed as normal.

You will most likely be making a five-gallon batch of beer but if you are using this method you probably do not have a five-gallon boil kettle. When we are talking about pots, size matters. You are going to want the biggest one your stove can accommodate. I live in an apartment with an apartment-sized stove, but luckily for me, the large element is pretty powerful. It takes about forty-five minutes for my three-gallon pot to come to a boil. This is a decent sized pot for doing stove-top brewing. If you need to go smaller, I would not go below two gallons because you’re going to be adding around two liters of malt extract at the end of the boil. It will boil over and make a huge mess if you don’t have ample head space in the pot. Also, the high concentration of sugar at the end of the boil will inhibit the hops from imparting their full character.

Until Next Time

In the next installment of Serum Visions, I’ll cover partial mash, which will include both the cooler and the brew in a bag (BIAB) method. I’ll also discuss all grain brewing in its many forms. Also, we’ll look at a new invention that functions kind of like the Keugrig or Tassimo of the beer world.

I would say that if you want to start brewing, you are now armed with enough information to get started. Pick one of these two methods—the can doesn’t count—and find your Local Home Brew Shop (LHBS) and tell them what kind of beer you want to make and the method you want to use—they will take it from there! You may also want to pick up Charlie Papazian’s book The Complete Joy of Home Brewing to get a more detailed look at what is going on. Start with one of these methods. Don’t wait for the next article, just go do it now! If you choose the right style and plan properly, you can even be ready to bottle by the time the next Serum Visions is published.
As always everyone, thanks for hangin’. And go make your own beer!

Andrew

Brainstorm Brewery #84 – The Greatest Fool of All

Brainstorm Brewery 01:03:10

We don’t mean to spend so much time talking about Reddit even though so much happened this week that we really feel like we have to. We’ve got spoilers, spoilers, spoilers! The gang talks about more than three cards, but I didn’t want to keep writing “spoilers”. Here’s another spoiler – you only have one week to enter our photoshop contest before it’s all over. Corbin embraces the suck and does an IAMA on Reddit, answering questions about finance for three hours and trying to set the record straight. Finance subreddit subscriptions near 4,000 – is this influx of enthusiasts affecting the market adversely? How do they feel about counterfeits? How do you? These questions are addressed and all things finance are discussed in one of the strongest episodes yet. Are these new fakes out of China a lethal threat to the game? Is Reddit? Is there any stopping the game at this point? Find out the answers to all these questions and more on a no-holds-barred episode of your favorite podcast that will leave you asking “What holds could you reasonably bar anyway? Holding Mutavaults? I thought you said to sell those”. This is Brainstorm Brewery.

Jason wrote a critical piece that wasn’t received as badly as we thought it might.
Ryan has some knowledge that gives the Chinese fake scandal some much needed perspective
Picks of the Week is super sized as always as the gang adds a new category
Is Reddit really changing the face of speculation?
How do you identify when you should buy during a spike?
Spoilers are here- who’s excited and who isn’t?
Wow, they reprinted Dark Confidant! Or did they?
Will the new demigods impact play?
How cool is this?
You have one more week to enter the photoshop contest. Winners announced next week.

Cabe Riseau produced the intro and outro music for Brainstorm Brewery.

Contact Us

Brainstorm Brewery – website – email – twitter – facebook

Ryan Bushard – email – twitter – facebook – gatheringmagic.com

Corbin Hosler – email – twitter – facebook – quitespeculation.com

Jason E Alt – email – twitter – facebook – gatheringmagic.com – quitespeculation.com

Marcel – email – twitter – facebook

All Magic Has a Price #4 – The Big Winner at the Prerelease

J. Graves

True Cost:
The lowest amount of real cash needed to acquire a card.

All Magic Has a Price

J. Graves

Tampa, FL

face Logo

Let me know your thoughts at [email protected]
Follow @jwgravesFL

About AMHaP

All Magic Has a Price focuses on Magic: The Gathering finance from the player’s point of view. AMHaP discusses the true cost of playing Magic: The Gathering by reviewing strategies to acquire a playable collection of cards for Standard as a returning player, a new player, or a continuing player, and by discussing potential investment opportunities in older formats. AMHaP targets those of us that play casually and competitively on a local level, and AMHaP is written for casually-competitive players by a casually-competitive player. If one would like further explanation of the viewpoint and scope, please read: All Magic Has a Price Issue #1.

If you would like more information on determining true-cost value, please read: All Magic Has a Price Issue #3 – Accounting for MTG.

The Big Winner at the Prerelease

I walked into a room the size of a coliseum. White tables where lined across the floor. I felt at home.
Logo
The prerelease structure is different now—I am not saying better, but different. Supporting the local card shop does feel like the right way to do it, but let me say, prereleases in the old days were big events.

Prereleases are a fantastic way to add true-cost value to one’s collection. The big winners at the prerelease will be those that prepare to win in all phases of the weekend.

Winning is by far the most important phase of a prerelease. How does one give himself or herself an advantage? The answer is simple: study.

Usually, the full set will be released a week before the prerelease on Saturday at 12 a.m. We’ll refer to this week as the “pre-week.” The pre-week gives one approximately 168 hours in which to prepare to dominate.

First and foremost, one has to know the cards. Several sites post the revealed cards from the new set. My personal favorites are Mythic Spoiler and the mothership itself, Daily MTG. As of this writing, 21 cards have been spoiled. Being aware of spoiled cards as they are revealed will give one additional time to prepare during the pre-week. The Monday of the week of the prerelease, the entire set will be spoiled. Take time to read through every card. Evaluate the value of each card in the context of playing it in Sealed. While evaluating, keep mindful of current archetypes in Standard. Is the card Standard-playable? Does it have a possible home in current Standard? What is the prerelease true-cost value?

The Friday of prerelease weekend, the Limited Resources podcast will have a commons and uncommons set overview. These reviews are up to four hours long, but find time to listen to the entire podcast while sitting in front of the computer. This way, you can follow along with the spoiler and do some expanded evaluation. Listen closely to what Marshall and Brian have to say. These two a very good at what they do. Study the new keyword abilities, look for interaction between cards, and evaluate the strength of each—this will add the most value to your limited study time.

After one has read every card, other practice options exist. Several websites offer virtual packs in order to practice building decks in the new Limited format. Drafts.in is currently my favorite. Tappedout.com is another good one. Continue reading the cards to make sure you fully understand them all. Look further for card interactions or specific deck archetypes.

Logo

Other phases of the prerelease can be as lucrative as winning. When Gatecrash came out, I studied the cards and noticed a very fun-looking one: [card]Boros Reckoner[/card]. Three mana for a 3/3 that can be given first strike seemed really good to me. Reckoner also did damage to a player or a creature for the damage Reckoner took. Wow, a great card. I looked up the price of the card, and found it was less than five dollars. I knew this was going to be a playable card in Standard, so I decided I was going to target it at the prerelease. I ended up winning the event and trading into six [card]Boros Reckoner[/card]s. As you might know, this worked out well for me.

Logo

An example of the reverse is [card]Aurelia’s Fury[/card]. The hype around this card was intense. An instant-speed fireball that could be split just made everyone happy. I personally didn’t understand how a [card]Fireball[/card], even at instant speed, was any better than a [card]Fireball[/card] ever had been. When is the last time a [card]Fireball[/card] finished a Standard game? For that matter, when had a [card]Fireball[/card] finished any game? Not since [card]Channel[/card]/[card]Fireball[/card] have I won a game with a [card]Fireball[/card]. I decided this was a flop. I pulled two of them prerelease weekend. When I got home, I immediately put them on eBay, and the Furies sold for approximately $22 each. Again, as you might know, this worked out well for me.

Being the big winner at your prerelease does not require winning the event, although that certainly helps. Other phases exist in order to recoup losses from a bad draw or a lucky opponent. Look at the current Standard to determine what cards might fit into current archetypes and evaluate the potential of new archetypes. This will give you an advantage when looking to build value in your collection during prerelease weekend. Properly evaluating over-hyped cards is another way to add true-cost value to one’s collection. But remember, in order to consistently be the big winner in all phases of prerelease weekend, one must study.

Mailbag #3

Twitter chimed in this week on the mailbag question. Awesome Twitter, thanks for the feedback. @sushihipster talked about eBay and PayPal fees versus selling to card shops—what is the time value of money? The time value of money is a fantastic concept, and one that very much fits into the conversation. I am going to do a future article on the time value of money versus MTG historical prices. Thanks for the input @sushihipster.

@nikvenar said, “I like to use the option in eBay where you can get eBay credit and pay no fees.” @nikvenar, this does sound like an awesome option. However, I was unable to locate it! @nikvenar, if you read this, please leave a link in the comments below so that we can look at this. I would really enjoy reading about this. This is exactly why I write these articles. I want to learn stuff.

Awesome questions, @shushihipster and @nikvenar!

In the comments of my last article, Nick talked about the mailbag questions. Nick said in regards to last week’s article, “This one (Accounting for MTG) seems to go against the previous one (Supporting the Local Card Shop) of what value using the store and giving up a few pennies or dollars can really add to you long term”.

Nick, this is a fantastic point, and is the main reason I wrote Supporting the Local Card Shop. Unfortunately, in order to minimize the actual cash needed to acquire a card, one must sometime go outside of his or her local community. Of course, if one can find good reasons to stay in the community, there will be additional value. When discussing true-cost value, it is important to be honest with oneself. One cannot always do what is best for the community; most times, it is prudent to focus on one’s own personal interests. I hope that the concept of opportunity costs was understood by most readers. If not, please send me questions.

Reddit, notice how I spelled it right, ty kihashi, was not as active this week. Come on guys, give me some feedback. vVvtime did have interesting thoughts. Be sure to check out the reddit.com forum for other members of the community’s feedback, and get in there and give me some feedback!

Mailbag #4

I have taken the time to discuss my preparation for the prerelease. Now it is your turn to repay the favor.

How do you study for the prerelease exist?

Feel free to respond on Reddit.com, or follow me on the Twitter machine @jwgravesFL, or if you have a name and an email address, you can leave a comment below. I need you, get in there.

Size Matters

Anthony Capece

Magic specs are like steaks – the rarer the better. The fewer copies of a card on the market, the bigger payoff if a spec hits. Simple enough.

Sometimes, though, the color of the expansion symbol doesn’t tell you everything you need to know about supply. Sometimes you have to consider other factors. A few months ago, in Rare is the New Uncommon, I talked about how the year a card was printed is very relevant when estimating supply. Today I’m going to talk about how the supply of two rares printed in the same year can also vary greatly. It is commonly known as the “small set” or “third set” effect.

The conventional wisdom is that a small set (or third set) will be opened less than the first set in a block because it will be drafted less and just generally available for a shorter period of time. This means fewer cards in circulation, which means higher prices for the cards that do hit from those sets. [card]Jace, the Mind Sculptor[/card], we’re looking at you.

While everyone agrees that the small set phenomenon is real, we need to understand the magnitude. If we can’t figure it out, we can’t separate the small set factor from the other factors that drive card prices. Are eldrazi so expensive because they are in short supply or because they are awesome? They were in a third set, but it was a big set. Would they cost much less if they were in Zendikar? Or much more if they were in Worldwake?

Traditional is the New Novelty

Wizards hasn’t done many traditional block structures in recent years, which only complicates things. The last actual big-small-small structure (before Theros this year) was Scars of Mirrodin, and we’ve only seen the “traditional” block structure two of the last five years.

This analysis is going to focus mostly on drafting, though later on I’ll talk briefly about other considerations. To get started, we need to make a few assumptions. A quick note on assumptions: any time you are lacking full information, you will need to make them. They are never perfect, but that’s fine as long as they are directionally correct. We are trying to understand the magnitude of the small set effect, not peg an exact number of cards in circulation. If you are not comfortable making assumptions, you are resigned to know exactly nothing instead of knowing something valuable within a margin of error.

We’re going to assume that people draft uniformly throughout the year and that they always draft the newest format. I think these are fair. By doing this, we can boil drafting down to two key factors. The first is the amount of time a format is current, and the second is the ratio of packs in a given format.

An example will make this easier to understand.

Starting with Theros:

Triple Theros will have been the format for 19 weeks by the time it is done. Obviously, it consists of three packs of Theros.
Born of the Gods (BNG/THS/THS) will be the format for 12 weeks. That’s seven weeks shorter than the triple Theros format, and we’ll actually still be opening two packs of Theros for every Born of the Gods pack during this time.
Journey Into Nyx (JOU/BNG/THS) will be the format for 11 weeks.

Clearly, Theros is going to be opened a whole lot more than Born of the Gods or Journey Into Nyx. Now let’s do the math.

Since all we care about is the ratio of sets here (like I said, we’re not trying to estimate the actual number of cards or packs opened), the units don’t matter. I’m going to multiply the number of packs in the format by the number of weeks it is current to get pack*weeks, which is a nonsensical unit that is just going to drop out later. It gets us where we need to go. Using the numbers above:

THS: (19 wks * 3 packs) + (12 wks * 2 packs) + (11 wks * 1 pack) = 92 pack*weeks

BNG: (12 wks * 1 pack) + (11 wks * 1 pack) = 23 pack*weeks

JOU: (11 wks * 1 pack) = 11 pack*weeks

So if you are wondering how much Journey Into Nyx will be drafted in comparison to Theros, just take the ratio of their pack*weeks.:

JOU / THS = 11 pack*weeks / 92 pack*weeks = 12%

This means our estimate is that 12 packs of JOU will be drafted for every 100 packs of THS. For BNG that number is 25 (23 pack*weeks / 92 pack*weeks = 25%), or one for every four packs of THS. It means that about two packs of BNG will be drafted for each pack of JOU.

The numbers are pretty dramatic, in my opinion. They are especially interesting for the MTGO market. I am of the understanding that the vast majority of digital cards find their way into the economy through drafts, although we can’t know this for sure. If that is true, rares and mythics from Theros will be in huge supply compared to the rest of the block. Think of how that affects a cycle like the Temples. There could be four R/G Temples for each B/R and there could be almost ten for each U/R (when it is release in JOU)! Ten to one!

Keep in mind that this doesn’t tell us how many packs are being opened in an absolute sense, just in comparison to Theros. We’re fine with that, it still gives us the information we need as financiers.

Okay, but Can We Go Deeper?

Now let’s have some fun and expand the analysis to older sets. Since we’re working in ratios here, we need to do everything in relative terms and pick a baseline set. Theros is perfect. We set Theros equal to one, so every other set on this chart is in terms of Theros packs.

I’m also going to add a growth factor of 25% per year to represent the growing player base. So Theros is going to get drafted 25% more than Return to Ravnica, which is going to be drafted 25% more than Innistrad, etc.

Here is our chart:

Let’s make sure we know what we are looking at. According to this model, three packs of Theros will be drafted for every one pack of M14 (33%). Even though that format was triple M14, it was drafted for a much shorter time.

About two packs of Theros will be drafted for every one Innistrad pack (56%). The difference is caused by two years of player growth along with the fact that Innistrad was benched when Avacyn Restored came out.

Return to Ravnica was drafted less than Innistrad according to this analysis. Even with 25% growth in the player base, sitting out for Gatecrash held RTR’s numbers down.

Simple enough? Modern Masters was intentionally left out because of the limited supply.

Some things that jump out to me:

Nothing comes even close to being drafted as heavily as Theros will be. When you combine the fact that both Innistrad block and Return to Ravnica block had unconventional draft formats with the player base growth over the last couple years, Theros is getting drafted twice as much as the previous leader. I’m talking in the history of the game.
Dragon’s Maze was really, absurdly, painfully underdrafted. For real. Four packs to every 100 Theros.
Actually, it’s not just Dragon’s Maze. Small sets really are small. They weren’t lying. Look at Worldwake (5% of Theros), New Phyrexia (5%) and Dark Ascension (9%).
Large sets other than the first set in a block are comparable to the core sets from the corresponding year. For example, ROE was drafted about the same as M10 or M11. That’s good to know.

Even though all sets are in terms of Theros, you can compare non-Theros sets. It’s correct to say that, by this estimate, Avacyn Restored (21%) was drafted a bit more than half as much as Gatecrash (38%).

As always, use this as a starting point and tweak as you see fit. Innistrad was an incredibly popular draft format, so you might want to adjust that number up somewhat. It’s probably not going to change your conclusions, though.

Accounting for Non-Drafted Packs

I’ve already said I think you can use this model as-is for MTGO. In paper, you have to account for all the packs that get cracked by stores and casual players outside of drafts. I have no information on this, so it’s going to be a guessing game. I will explain how I think of it, although it is certainly up for debate.

I would start by adding a “base load” of paper cards. My thinking is that stores and casual players are going to buy up a certain amount of each new set, and that won’t really depend on the draft format or the size of the set. If I own a store, I probably need to bust X boxes of each new set to get the singles to support my Constructed players. I’d still need to get those [card]Voice of Resurgence[/card]s in my case whether or not anyone was going to draft the set.

We have to do everything in terms of Theros, so let’s just guess that two-thirds of Theros cards are being opened in drafts, leaving one-third to be cracked by stores. We’ll carry this fixed amount over for all sets. Your guess is as good as mine on the number. Here’s how it would look:

The red bar is the draft portion, the blue is non-draft product being opened.

Again, it’s all guesswork, but it should show you that the drafting differential is still relevant in a scenario like this, even if the effects are minimized somewhat. Now Innistrad reads at 70% instead of 56%. As you continue to increase the fixed portion (blue bars) and minimize the Draft portion, that gap will close even more. If Draft was responsible for only a very small portion of cards coming into the market (and I don’t think it is), then it wouldn’t matter much what was getting drafted and for how long.

In reality, the blue bars will vary as well. I’m sure stores sold way more Innistrad to casuals than Dragon’s Maze. This is just a starting point, but it’s more information than we had before. Almost any way you cut it, small sets are opened far less than first sets. And Theros…well, we are swimming in it, what else can you say?

That’s quite a bit for this week. Thanks for reading.

Standard Commander: Return to Ravnica Analysis

Kirsin Koch

This article is a continued exploration of what a Return to Ravnica/Gatecrash/Dragon’s Maze/M14/Theros Commander format might look like. Previous articles in this series covered basic deck design principles available in the format and what each of the mono-colored decks might contain. When [card]Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord[/card] was spoiled as a set preview in the Izzet vs. Golgari Duel Deck, many Golgari fans anticipated using this extremely strong guild leader. When Return to Ravnica was fully spoiled, all the guild leaders seemed to be strong contenders for Commander. Later, Dragon’s Maze and Theros would add further options. Despite having a Standard-only card pool, these legendary creatures still represent some interesting deck construction possibilities.

Azorius

A white-blue Standard Commander appears to best be served by adhering to its stereotypical control archetype by playing a singular, but effective, threat and protecting it with removal, counterspells, and board wipes. The best generals for this strategy are [card]Medomai the Ageless[/card] and [card]Isperia, Supreme Judge[/card]. [card]Lavinia of the Tenth[/card] is a weak choice because there are no flicker effects in the environment with which to repeatedly detain the lower-costed permanents on the board.

With control and card draw in mind, the deck build below runs no fewer than four [card]Ophidian[/card]-type creatures in addition to [card]Bident of Thassa[/card]. If possible, play an [card]Ophidian[/card] creature early and hit an undefended opponent repeatedly to draw into counter magic. Counterspells should be used to stop gods, primordials, board wipes that negatively impact your board state, and any other game-changing spells. An [card]Elite Arcanist[/card] imprinted with a counterspell that sticks will be a powerful play that only [card]Supreme Verdict[/card] can easily handle. [card]Dismiss into Dream[/card] with [card]Elite Arcanist[/card] imprinted with any spell will similarly be a very strong synergy if opponents are unable to remove either half.

[deck title=Azorius Standard Commander]

[Creatures]
*1 Celestial Archon
*1 Clone
*1 AEtherling
*1 Stolen Identity
*1 Medomai the Ageless
[/Creatures]

[Creature Token Generators]
*1 Heliod, God of the Sun
*1 Elspeth, Sun’s Champion
*1 Master of Waves
[/Creature Token Generators]

[Card Draw]
*1 Scroll Thief
*1 Stealer of Secrets
*1 Thassa, God of the Sea
*1 Thassa’s Emissary
*1 Prognostic Sphinx
*1 Bident of Thassa
*1 Opportunity
*1 Jace, Memory Adept
*1 Daxos of Meletis
*1 Isperia, Supreme Judge
*1 Righteous Authority
*1 Sphinx’s Revelation
[/card draw]

[Counterspells]
*1 Annul
*1 Swan Song
*1 Essence Scatter
*1 Negate
*1 Cancel
*1 Dissolve
*1 Scatter Arc
*1 Render Silent
*1 Fall of the Gavel
[/counterspells]

[Creature Removal]
*1 Banisher Priest
*1 Spear of Heliod
*1 Angelic Edict
*1 Voidwielder
*1 Dismiss into Dream
*1 New Prahv Guildmage
*1 Azorius Charm
[/creature removal]

[Board Wipes]
*1 Angel of Serenity
*1 Luminate Primordial
*1 Planar Cleansing
*1 Cyclonic Rift
*1 AEtherize
*1 Restore the Peace
*1 Supreme Verdict
[/Board Wipes]

[Noncreature Removal]
*1 Solemn Offering
[/noncreature removal]

[General Removal]
*1 Detention Sphere
[/general removal]

[Control]
*1 Blind Obedience
*1 Council of the Absolute
[/control]

[Recursion]
*1 ArchAEomancer
*1 Elite Arcanist
*1 Mnemonic Wall
*1 Diluvian Primordial
[/recursion]

[Life Gain]
*1 Congregate

[/life gain]

[Mana Acceleration]
*1 Burnished Hart
*1 Azorious Cluestone
*1 Azorious Keyrune
*1 Chromatic Lantern
*1 Darksteel Ingot
[/mana acceleration]

[Lands]
*1 Azorious Guildgate
*1 Encroaching Wastes
*1 Hallowed Fountain
*21 Island
*1 Mutavault
*1 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
*12 Plains
*1 Rogue’s Passage
[/lands]
[/deck]

Alternatively, a [card]Daxos of Meletis[/card] voltron deck is possible, but it loses a lot of power with the large amount of creature token generation in a Standard Commander environment. The lack of extremely strong equipment to significantly boost attack power discourages this route as well. [card]Daxos of Meletis[/card] is much stronger in an Eternal Commander card pool. A player looking for an unusual alternate win condition should consider [card]Azor’s Elocutors[/card]. Unfortunately, the current Standard environment is missing the proliferate mechanic to really break the card.

Selesnya

Unfortunately, Selesnya only has one real choice for its commander, but it’s not an awful one: [card]Trostani, Selesnya’s Voice[/card]. Trostani really encourages going all-in on a token creature theme, but risks being severely hampered by every black deck playing [card]Erebos, God of the Dead[/card]. A Selesnya deck is going to have to rely on [card]Angelic Edict[/card], [card]Trostani’s Judgment[/card], [card]Selesnya Charm[/card], and [card]Fade into Antiquity[/card] to stop an Erebos. Sadly, Selesnya decks have some of the weakest card draw available in a Standard Commander format. With this in mind, a Selesnya deck might look like this:

[deck title=Trostani Standard Commander]

[Creatures]
*1 Voracious Wurm
*1 Miming Slime
*1 Armada Wurm
*1 Advent of the Wurm
[/Creatures]

[Creature Token Generators]
*1 Heliod, God of the Sun
*1 Scion of Vitu-Ghazi
*1 Angelic Accord
*1 Elspeth, Sun’s Champion
*1 Devout Invocation
*1 Sporemound
*1 Giant Adephage
*1 Primeval Bounty
*1 Vitu-Ghazi Guildmage
*1 Voice of Resurgence
*1 Wayfaring Temple
*1 Trostani, Selesnya’s Voice
*1 Trostani’s Summoner
[/Creature Token Generators]

[Creature Buffs]
*1 Frontline Medic
*1 Phantom General
*1 Archangel of Thune
*1 Angelic Skirmisher
*1 Path of Bravery
*1 Spear of Heliod
*1 Rootborn Defenses
*1 Oak Street Innkeeper
*1 Bow of Nylea
*1 Emmara Tandris
*1 Collective Blessing
[/Creature Buffs]

[Card Draw]
*1 Nylea’s Presence
*1 Warriors’ Lesson
[/Card Draw]

[Creature Removal]
*1 Banisher Priest
*1 Trostani’s Judgment
*1 Angelic Edict
*1 Selesnya Charm
[/Creature Removal]

[Noncreature Removal]
*1 Solemn Offering
*1 Fade into Antiquity
*1 Sundering Growth
[/Noncreature Removal]

[Board Wipe]
*1 Angel of Serenity
*1 Luminate Primordial
*1 Planar Cleansing
[/Board Wipe]

[Graveyard Hate]
*1 Scavenging Ooze
[/Graveyard Hate]

[Combat Tricks]
*1 Druid’s Deliverance
[/Combat Tricks]

[Life Gain]
*1 Blind Obedience
*1 Riot Control
[/Life Gain]

[Mana Acceleration]
*1 Elvish Mystic
*1 Gyre Sage
*1 Manaweft Sliver
*1 Sylvan Caryatid
*1 Voyaging Satyr
*1 Karametra’s Acolyte
*1 Into the Wilds
*1 Ordeal of Nylea
*1 Chromatic Lantern
*1 Darksteel Ingot
*1 Selesnya Cluestone
*1 Selesnya Keyrune
*1 Burnished Hart
[/Mana Acceleration]

[Recursion]
*1 Codex Shredder
*1 Illusionist’s Bracers
[/Recursion]

[Lands]
*1 Encroaching Wastes
*19 Forest
*1 Grove of the Guardian
*1 Mutavault
*1 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
*18 Plains
*1 Rogue’s Passage
*1 Selesnya Guildgate
*1 Temple Garden
[/Lands]
[/deck]

It’s true that this deck is running a significant amount of lands coupled with mana acceleration. However, the populate mechanic is going to be key in shoring up Selesnya’s lack of card draw. Unfortunately, there’s a finite amount of room in the deck and hoping to add the [card]Trading Post[/card] / [card]Prophetic Prism[/card] combo without any ability to tutor is a waste of two slots. Additionally, the Selesnya player is going to want to have plenty of mana to cast end-of-turn spells in addition to the expected “end of turn, populate target token” activation.

Izzet

An Izzet deck will be lead by either [card]Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius[/card] or [card]Melek, Izzet Paragon[/card]. The deck concept below intends for either legendary creature to serve as the commander. There’s a wealth of instants and sorceries combined with cards that allow for synergies with these card types. In both cases, the intends to play few or no early threats, but instead concentrate on building mana and dealing reactively with threats. When there’s enough mana to successfully play and protect [card]Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius[/card] or [card]Melek, Izzet Paragon[/card], then this Izzet deck can begin either drawing cards or doubling instant and sorcery spells. This deck build may be familiar to “pillow fort” players.

[deck title=Izzet Standard Commander]

[Creatures]
*1 Stolen Identity
*1 Young Pyromancer
*1 Guttersnipe
*1 Lobber Crew
*1 Stormbreath Dragon
*1 Act of Treason
*1 Goblin Rally
*1 Nivmagus Elemental
*1 Nivix Guildmage
*1 Spellheart Chimera
*1 Hypersonic Dragon
[/Creatures]

[Card draw]
*1 Thassa, God of the Sea
*1 Prescient Chimera
*1 Opportunity
*1 Jace, Memory Adept
*1 Divination
*1 Mercurial Chemister
*1 Melek, Izzet Paragon
*1 Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius
*1 Steam Augury
*1 Thoughtflare
*1 Blast of Genius
[/Card draw]

[Counterspells]
*1 Annul
*1 Mizzium Skin
*1 Swan Song
*1 Essence Scatter
*1 Negate
*1 Dissolve
*1 Scatter Arc
*1 Izzet Charm
*1 Counterflux
*1 Essence Backlash
[/Counterspells]

[Creature removal]
*1 Inaction Injunction
*1 Voyage’s End
*1 Volcanic Geyser
*1 Izzet Staticaster
*1 Turn – Burn
*1 Ral Zarek
[/Creature removal]

[Board wipes]
*1 Blustersquall
*1 Cyclonic Rift
*1 AEtherize
*1 Curse of the Swine
*1 Street Spasm
*1 Homing Lightning
*1 Mizzium Mortars
*1 Anger of the Gods
[/Board wipes]

[Noncreature removal]
*1 Disperse
*1 Vandalblast
[/Noncreature removal]

[Mana acceleration]
*1 Goblin Electromancer
*1 Chromatic Lantern
*1 Darksteel Ingot
*1 Izzet Cluestone
*1 Izzet Keyrune
*1 Burnished Hart
[/Mana acceleration]

[Recursion]
*1 Meletis Charlatan
*1 Archaeomancer
*1 Elite Arcanist
*1 Mnemonic Wall
*1 Diluvian Primordial
[/Recursion]

[Tutors]
*1 Firemind’s Foresight
[/Tutors]

[Lands]
*1 Encroaching Wastes
*21 Island
*1 Izzet Guildgate
*13 Mountain
*1 Mutavault
*1 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
*1 Rogue’s Passage
*1 Steam Vents
[/Lands]
[/deck]

Some readers may note that [card]Epic Experiment[/card] is absent from this list as well as [card]Dragonshift[/card]. Unfortunately, [card]Epic Experiment[/card] is best when cast for 8 or higher, but Standard just does not have the artifact mana to power that level of spell or the tutors to seek it out. Also, this build focuses on having many counterspells, making Experiment much more likely to have no effect. The creature base is inherently too varied for [card]Dragonshift[/card] to be an effective win condition. A [card]Young Pyromancer[/card] is just not likely to stay a threat long enough to successfully build an army worthy of becoming dragons for a turn.

Rakdos

Rakdos colors have three different available commanders, two of which have definite possibility. [card]Rakdos, Lord of Riots[/card] can be a very speedy general to build around with large creatures being nearly free after a successful turn-five attack. [card]Exava, Rakdos Blood Witch[/card] is really designed to be an efficient beater in regular Standard and the unleash mechanic does not do enough to unleashed creatures to make them viable even in a Standard Commander format. Most interestingly though, with [card]Tymaret, the Murder King[/card] as commander, a Rakdos deck can run a semi-combo deck built around [card]Shadowborn Apostle[/card] to tutor out must-answer threats such as [card]Lord of the Void[/card], [card]Master of Cruelties[/card], [card]Rakdos, Lord of Riots[/card], and [card]Sire of Insanity[/card]. This presents a very fun engine to build around as every sixth [card]Shadowborn Apostle[/card] in play can search out a serious threat at instant speed.

[deck title=Standard Demons and Apostles]

[Creatures]
*38 Shadowborn Apostle
*1 Shadowborn Demon
*1 Abhorrent Overlord
*1 Lord of the Void
*1 Rakdos, Lord of Riots
*1 Master of Cruelties
*1 Sire of Insanity
[/Creatures]

[Sacrifice Engine]
*1 Tymaret, the Murder King
[/Sacrifice Engine]

[Token Creature Generation]
*1 Xathrid Necromancer
*1 Ogre Slumlord
[/Token Creature Generation]

[Creature Buff]
*1 Whip of Erebos
*1 Titan of Eternal Fire
*1 Hammer of Purphoros
*1 Door of Destinies
[/Creature Buff]

[Card Draw]
*1 Erebos, God of the Dead
*1 Dark Prophecy
[/Card Draw]

[Creature Removal]
*1 Doom Blade
*1 Ultimate Price
*1 Hero’s Downfall
*1 Launch Party
*1 Dreadbore
[/Creature Removal]

[Board Wipes]
*1 Mizzium Mortars
[/Board Wipes]

[Mana Acceleration]
*1 Crypt Ghast
*1 Chromatic Lantern
[/Mana Acceleration]

[Recursion]
*1 Rise of the Dark Realms
*1 Underworld Cerberus
[/Recursion]

[Tutors]
*1 Diabolic Tutor
[/Tutors]

[Lands]
*1 Blood Crypt
*1 Encroaching Wastes
*7 Mountain
*1 Mutavault
*1 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
*1 Rakdos Guildgate
*1 Rogue’s Passage
*23 Swamp
[/Lands]
[/deck]

The [card]Shadowborn Apostle[/card]s should most often first search out [card]Sire of Insanity[/card] to put each opponent into topdeck mode, followed by [card]Lord of the Void[/card] or [card]Shadowborn Demon[/card] depending on the board state. The token generation from [card]Ogre Slumlord[/card] and [card]Xathrid Necromancer[/card], as well as the tribal synergies of the [card]Shadowborn Apostle[/card]s with [card]Titan of Eternal Fire[/card] and [card]Door of Destinies[/card] may help with this. [card]Underworld Cerberus[/card] and [card]Rise of the Dark Realms[/card] both recycle the [card]Shadowborn Apostle[/card]s to repeat searching out a demon. Alternatively, once can just win with an army of clerics buffed by [card]Door of Destinies[/card]. [card]Diabolic Tutor[/card] will be key for getting [card]Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx[/card] in order to power [card]Titan of Eternal Fire[/card]’s ability. In the later game or when stuck in topdeck mode, unnecessary [card]Shadowborn Apostle[/card]s function as fodder for Tymaret’s ability.

This approach is somewhat akin to a [card]Kaalia of the Vast[/card] deck, meaning that it’s very much a glass cannon-style deck and may lack resiliency without more [card]Shadowborn Apostle[/card]s and [card]Thrumming Stone[/card]s. The appropriate number of [card]Shadowborn Apostle[/card]s in this deck needs to be tested as well. Cards such as [card]Elixir of Immortality[/card], [card]Darksteel Ingot[/card], [card]Rakdos Cluestone[/card], and [card]Rakdos Keyrune[/card] have been cut to add seven more [card]Shadowborn Apostle[/card] to the list, giving an average of 2.68 [card]Shadowborn Apostle[/card]s in each opening hand, with a 38% chance of drawing another on turn one. That chance naturally increases incrementally with each draw. The weakest part of this deck concept is going to be the potential for useless late-game draws if you lose your big threats, which is only minorly assisted with [card]Tymaret, the Murder King[/card]’s sacrifice ability. However this deck does it, when it wins, the deck will win spectacularly off the back of working-class clerics.

Golgari

Golgari has two possible commanders in [card]Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord[/card] and [card]Varolz the Scar-Striped[/card]. As with Eternal Commander, a Golgari Standard Commander deck is a potent color combination focusing on quickly assembling a strong, creature-based board presence. When those creatures die, there are recursive elements to bring them back for minimal mana cost. With Jarad, there are some obvious and very strong synergies making him the go-to general for a Golgari Standard Commander deck. The deck is even able to run a possible repeatable removal, life gain, and opponent life loss engine.

[deck title=Standard Jarad]

[Creatures]
*1 Wight of Precinct Six
*1 Nighthowler
*1 Lord of the Void
*1 Nemesis of Mortals
[/Creatures]

[Token creature generation]
*1 Ogre Slumlord
*1 Primeval Bounty
[/Token creature generation]

[Sacrifice outlet]
*1 Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord
[/Sacrifice outlet]

[Card draw]
*1 Blood Scrivener
*1 Erebos, God of the Dead
*1 Dark Prophecy
*1 Liliana of the Dark Realms
*1 Read the Bones
*1 Garruk, Caller of Beasts
*1 Reaper of the Wilds
[/Card draw]

[Creature removal engine]
*1 Festering Newt
*1 Bogbrew Witch
*1 Bow of Nylea
*1 Bubbling Cauldron
[/Creature removal engine]

[Creature removal]
*1 Slum Reaper
*1 Shadowborn Demon
*1 Doom Blade
*1 Ultimate Price
*1 Hero’s Downfall
*1 Launch Party
*1 Liturgy of Blood
*1 Putrefy
[/Creature removal]

[Noncreature removal]
*1 Sylvan Primordial
*1 Fade into Antiquity
[/Noncreature removal]

[General removal]
*1 Vraska the Unseen
[/General removal]

[Discard/milling effects]
*1 Pack Rat
*1 Grisly Spectacle
*1 Commune with the Gods
*1 Rot Farm Skeleton
*1 Grisly Salvage
*1 Codex Shredder
[/Discard/milling effects]

[Recursion]
*1 Corpse Hauler
*1 Tenacious Dead
*1 Sepulchral Primordial
*1 Whip of Erebos
*1 Grave Betrayal
*1 Rescue from the Underworld
*1 Rise of the Dark Realms
*1 Pharika’s Mender
*1 Deadbridge Chant
*1 Down – Dirty
*1 Illusionist’s Bracers
[/Recursion]

[Board wipe]
*1 Hythonia the Cruel
*1 Gaze of the Gorgon
*1 Volatile Rig
[/Board wipe]

[Graveyard hate]
*1 Scavenging Ooze
*1 Deathrite Shaman
[/Graveyard hate]

[Mana acceleration]
*1 Crypt Ghast
*1 Elvish Mystic
*1 Manaweft Sliver
*1 Sylvan Caryatid
*1 Axebane Guardian
*1 Karametra’s Acolyte
*1 Into the Wilds
*1 Darksteel Ingot
*1 Golgari Cluestone
*1 Golgari Keyrune
*1 Burnished Hart
[/Mana acceleration]

[Tutors]
*1 Diabolic Tutor
*1 Jarad’s Orders
[/Tutors]

[Lands]
*14 Forest
*1 Golgari Guildgate
*1 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
*1 Overgrown Tomb
*21 Swamp
[/Lands]
[/deck]

With a light deck-milling theme, [card]Nighthowler[/card], [card]Wight of Precinct Six[/card], and Jarad can become very credible combat threats. At some point in the final stages of the game, it may be possible to cast [card]Nighthowler[/card] or [card]Erebos’s Emissary[/card] with bestow, sacrifice the enchanted creature with Jarad and then sacrifice the [card]Nighthowler[/card] to finish off the entire table. [card]Nemesis of Mortals[/card] fills a similar role by being a possibly cheap, large creature to sacrifice to Jarad, but it could be replaced by [card]Gyre Sage[/card] if necessary. [card]Garruk, Caller of Beasts[/card] may be sub-optimal for his -3 ability, but drawing additional threats is still very relevant.

The removal engine consists of assembling an active [card]Bogbrew Witch[/card] and [card]Bow of Nylea[/card] on the battlefield. Once this is accomplished, spending 4G at instant speed results in -4/-4 to target creature until end of turn, each opponent losing four life, the Jarad player gaining life equal to the total life lost in this way, and up to four cards being shuffled from the Jarad player’s graveyard back into his library.

Golgari also still has [card]Varolz, the Scar-Striped[/card] with which to build a voltron strategy based around +1/+1 counters. This idea has too much possibility not to explore in this article, so here is a second bonus Golgari deck list. This deck almost built itself:

[deck title=Standard Varolz]

[Creatures]
*1 Lifebane Zombie
*1 Liliana’s Reaver
*1 Lord of the Void
*1 Arbor Colossus
*1 Boon Satyr
*1 Brush Strider
*1 Kalonian Hydra
*1 Kalonian Tusker
*1 Mistcutter Hydra
*1 Ooze Flux
*1 Vastwood Hydra
*1 Witchstalker
*1 Dreg Mangler
*1 Varolz, the Scar-Striped
[/Creatures]

[Creature buff]
*1 Necropolis Regent
*1 Bow of Nylea
*1 Crowned Ceratok
*1 Death’s Presence
*1 Nylea, God of the Hunt
*1 Primeval Bounty
*1 Slaughterhorn
*1 Corpsejack Menace
[/Creature buff]

[Sacrifice outlet]
*1 Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord
*1 Korozda Guildmage
[/Sacrifice outlet]

[Card draw]
*1 Blood Scrivener
*1 Erebos, God of the Dead
*1 Liliana of the Dark Realms
*1 Garruk, Caller of Beasts
*1 Reaper of the Wilds
[/Card draw]

[Creature removal]
*1 Desecration Demon
*1 Doom Blade
*1 Grisly Spectacle
*1 Hero’s Downfall
*1 Launch Party
*1 Liturgy of Blood
*1 Shadowborn Demon
*1 Slum Reaper
*1 Ultimate Price
*1 Hunt the Weak
*1 Polukranos, World Eater
*1 Putrefy
[/Creature removal]

[Board wipe]
*1 Hythonia the Cruel
*1 Gaze of Granite
[/Board wipe]

[Noncreature removal]
*1 Fade into Antiquity
*1 Bramblecrush
*1 Sylvan Primordial
[/Noncreature removal]

[General removal]
*1 Vraska the Unseen
[/General removal]

[Graveyard Hate]
*1 Scavenging Ooze
[/Graveyard Hate]

[Mana acceleration]
*1 Crypt Ghast
*1 Elvish Mystic
*1 Gyre Sage
*1 Manaweft Sliver
*1 Ordeal of Nylea
*1 Burnished Hart
*1 Darksteel Ingot
*1 Golgari Cluestone
*1 Golgari Keyrune
[/Mana acceleration]

[Recursion]
*1 Grave Betrayal
*1 Sepulchral Primordial
*1 Deadbridge Chant
*1 Down – Dirty
*1 Rot Farm Skeleton
[/Recursion]

[Tutors]
*1 Diabolic Tutor
*1 Jarad’s Orders
[/Tutors]

[Lands]
*16 Forest
*1 Golgari Guildgate
*1 Mutavault
*1 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
*1 Overgrown Tomb
*1 Rogue’s Passage
*16 Swamp
[/Lands]
[/deck]

[card]Death’s Presence[/card], [card]Primeval Bounty[/card], [card]Corpsejack Menace[/card], [card]Korozda Guildmage[/card], and [card]Rot Farm Skeleton[/card] make a potentially solid basis for repeatedly large threats. Additionally, the deck runs almost every creature in black and green with power equal to or greater than its converted mana cost, allowing the pilot to utilize scavenge to maximum effect. [card]Witchstalker[/card] and [card]Reaper of the Wilds[/card] are going to be possibly the most effective threats to scavenge onto due to hexproof. [card]Gladecover Scout[/card] is the only other green creature with hexproof available in Standard currently and may fit in this deck. However, making space for [card]Gladecover Scout[/card] is difficult without cutting a land. [card]Mutavault[/card] is another prime scavenge target because the counters stay even when the land is not a creature.

Notably, [card]Abrupt Decay[/card] is absent from both of these Golgari lists. This may be a mistake, but with so many of the major threats in a Standard Commander format being indestructible gods or having a converted mana cost of four or greater, [card]Abrupt Decay[/card] does not seem to be an optimal choice, even in a Golgari deck. If a Golgari deck pilot determines his environment has enough targets to warrant including [card]Abrupt Decay[/card], [card]Liturgy of Blood[/card] is possibly the card to cut from either deck list.

Of all the Return to Ravnica guilds, the Azorius and Izzet decks will likely be the strongest thanks to the blue card draw component. Golgari is most likely a tier-1.5 archetype due to black shoring up a lack of reactivity. The rest of the guilds are definitely tier-two decks. Rakdos will satisfy the Johnny player while Selesnya satisfies the Timmy player.

Next time, we’ll cover the Gatecrash guilds. Please comment below!

A Defense of Star City Games

Justin Waller

Hello, and welcome to my very first article here on Brainstorm Brewery. I’d like to start by thanking the staff here and especially Jason for pushing me to finish this article. It’s my goal to write articles that make you think critically about how you are currently conducting your business, and more importantly, to engage you in conversations that benefit our community.

With the nature of this being a new site with a great group of new writers, I feel it’s a little old hat to introduce myself other than to say I am where a lot of you are: looking to move out of casual trading and into serious Magic finance. While I am not as established as my contemporaries, I feel I can offer a lot of great lessons that have helped me get to the point where I am at now.

For starters, please stop the aversion to trading at Star City Games (SCG) pricing. It seems every financial writer has been on a recent kick bemoaning trade partners insisting on SCG pricing. SCG is the gold standard in the market for a reason: they literally set the bar and provide consistent pricing. Blah blah blah, but how does that help us? SCG being overpriced in comparison to eBay and TCGplayer is great if you want to get serious about making money with Magic.

The eBay/TCGplayer model represents the cash value of a card, where SCG is widely considered the retail value of a card. This means that trading at eBay/TCGplayer prices, if you trade for a card at $10, you should expect to get $10 in hard cash for your card (not counting shipping or fees). Now the complaints of many writers is that why would oneuse SCG to trade at an inflated value and then cash out at a much lower amount? Using that model, you eventually lose everything in the transaction.

This is very true, but the TCGplayer model is more appropriate for writers like Ryan Bushard and Corbin Hosler, who either operate as stores or work closely enough with stores that using the eBay/TCGplayer pricing for transactions is more profitable. If you are like me, you don’t run the counter at a store or have the clout to have players freely buy and sell to you on a regular basis. Without that authority, you can’t always buy cards at buylist values. Let’s be honest—collections are a great way to make money, but most of us compete with Craigslist or our local games store (LGS), and thus can’t rely on regularly obtaining collections. So if you aren’t buying collections or have players coming to you on a regular basis, how do you ever get ahead? You can either adopt the shark mentality, deceiving your trade partners about values, or you can do what I do.

My Trading Strategy

I have been very successful sniping auctions on eBay for Standard staples, usually paying 50% or less of SCG prices. In other words, I’m buying for close to buylist. Then I trade those cards to players in my area for cards that have a much smaller margin. For example, sold listings on eBay for [card]Elspeth, Sun’s Champion[/card] range around $50 for a playset, or $12.50 a copy. SCG is sold out at $20 and might not drop any further. Hypothetically, we are up $7.50 a copy at this point. I then take an Elspeth to Friday Night Magic (FNM) and trade it away for five copies of [card]Thalia, Guardian of Thraben[/card]. The SCG price on Thalia is $3.99, but completed eBay auctions for Thalia close around $3 per copy. From a financial perspective, you just “made” $2.50. While not a lot, it starts to add up if you think about all the nickel and dimes we pull out of bulk.

Thalia, Guardian of Thraben The example of Thalia can be applied to every spec you make. You should be trading for cards that are not as profitable to pay cash for but also have the potential to rise further. Using Thalia as a sleeper, how does that trade look if Thalia starts selling for $5 or $6 each? The key to this concept isn’t trading overpriced Standard cards into eternal staples. Instead, we use any overpriced to find cards that have a cash value closer to retail.

If you trade at TCGplayer levels, how do you come ahead? Do you buy at TCG low and trade at TCG mid? The margins aren’t that high. Going back to earlier example with Elspeth, say you buy the cheapest copy at $15 and then sell for $20. After fees, that $5 really starts to shrink to nothing. As sellers, we want cash handy and TCG low is really where we can expect to sell quickly, getting our cash back in hand soonest. If you have success trading at TCGplayer prices, I would love to hear what has worked for you and what you think about my method.

If two things are certain in life, they’re death and taxes. Likewise, the one constant in Magic is that once cards rotate, it takes a long time to reach their peaks again, if at all. This leads to another benefit of using SCG prices: moving Standard cards into Modern, Legacy or EDH. SCG has to be the worst at repricing cards, which is the absolute nuts if you are trading with the SCG-only guy or gal. One of the most glaring examples I can point to was during last Modern season, when [card]Celestial Colonnade[/card] was selling for $3.99 on SCG but playsets were closing on eBay for $20.00. Even after fees, trading at $16 and selling for $20 was a no-brainer. Even better, [card]Celestial Colonnade[/card] was sold out for literally months while it was selling for $6 to $8 elsewhere. But history is history, and if we all had a time machine we’d all buy [card]Black Lotus[/card]es, but how about currently? Foil [card]Steel Overseers[/card] are sold out on SCG but you can’t buy them cheaper than $12. See where I am going here? Do you want to trade on a site that trends with the market or one that lags at times?

Please allow me to address critics of the approach I propose. How do you trade for high-cash-value cards if they are not in binders? It’s very fair, but my practice isn’t for the trader who shows up once a month to trade. You need to be extremely active in your community. I personally have four stores in my area with four separate play styles. This gives me opportunities to pick up cards from players with very different priorities. It does mean increasing my knowledge of different formats, but that’s not a negative.

I think its very important to research and honestly think about the cards we choose to spend cash on. How does that purchase make us the most money? More importantly, how do we expect to come ahead in the end? Look at opportunities like the Elspeth example. What card is in high demand right now that you can pick up for half its retail value in cash and trade for cards with cash value 90% of retail? The system always works for cheaper cards too. If your group is out of [card]Chained to the Rocks[/card], you can buy at $1.50 on TCGplayer and then trade to locals at $2.50—you just come ahead every time. Look for opportunities, do the research, know what cards local players are looking for, and fill that niche.

If you’re playing with an SCG-centric crowd, you can make money by picking up cards at eBay/TCGplayer low and selling directly to the players that are willing to pay cash. If you offer to sell your Elpseth for $15, you just made the $2 without having Chained to the Rocks to pay fees. At the same time, you made money and your trade partner feels like he got a deal. This practice won’t make you millions, but will provide just enough incremental value to make it worthwhile. It creates the opportunity to have a steady cash flow and cards that are in high demand no matter the season.

One final distinction I want to make is an ethical tickle I feel when discussing this practice. This is exploitation, but it is not one that takes advantage of your trade partners like deceptive pricing does. You are offering the service of putting down your cash when they are not willing to.

Thanks again for your time and I hope you will read my next article, too. Please feel free to reach me on Facebook at Justin Waller, on Twitter @SpellBombFTW, or in the comments below.

P.S. I do like to think of myself as financially-minded, so here’s a tip: buy or trade into Innistrad block Modern staples right now. Not counting [card]Liliana of the Veili[/card], [card]Geist of Saint Traft[/card], and [card]Snapcaster Mage[/card], cards like [card]Huntmaster of the Fells[/card], [card]Bonfire of the Damned[/card], and [card]Olivia Voldaren[/card] are selling on eBay very close to SCG prices. Pay attention to the market! When SCG is at or lower than everyone else, they will course correct soon, and you want to be in before they do.

PucaPrimer, Part One

Jazon

So you want to become a PucaTrader.

The first and most obvious step in this process is simply registering with the site. Instead of assuming that you, the reader, has registered on a website at some point in the past, I’m going to be very patronizing and walk you through it. After you put “https://pucatrade.com/” into the address bar on the browser of your choice, you’re going to click that big blue button in the top right corner that reads “Register.” Or scroll to the bottom of the page and click “Sign Up Now.” Either way, you will reach the registration page, which prompts you for your full name, email address, and your password. Check the box marked “Agree to Terms of Use” without reading them and click the “Sign Up” button.

Incredible. You have done it.

Wait, they made a video of how to use PucaTrade? Why are you reading this?

Signing in will bring you to your Dashboard, which is pretty evocative of a customizable front page but at the moment is pretty non-customizable. A feature for another day, perhaps? There’s a basic video tutorial of PucaTrade here, a series of articles written by PucaTrade staff, and various stats. If you’re anything like me, you’re a huge sucker for statistics. There’s a log of recent (completed) trade activity, broad statistics such as total cards offered and total completed trades, as well as the Top Traders list.

I found out to put images in the article! Happy day!

Up at the top right corner of the page will be your personal menu, your current PucaPoint total, and the big blue “Send a Card” button. We’ll worry about sending cards later—for now, let’s make sure you’re actually capable of sending them. Opening the personal menu gives you a bunch of options, but let’s just go to “My Account” so you can enter your address. This address is required to send and receive cards—back in the Beta days, you could only know the address of the person to whom you were sending cards. This obviously made it hard to figure out who sent you which of four separate [card]Celestial Colonnade[/card]s without trade numbers written on them. Fortunately, PucaTrade Revised allows you to check the address of the person sending you the cards, making the whole process much less frustrating for both parties.

Story Time

I joined PucaTrade in late August of 2012 after a Chas Andres article suggested it as a trading tool. I’d recently gotten back into Magic after an ill-advised and fortunately short-lived hiatus from the game. I’d sold pretty much all of my high-value Standard and Modern cards, minus a Melira Pod deck and a few assorted shocks. The idea of an online trading community interested me greatly, though for some reason I’d always been a bit daunted by Deckbox or the MTG Salvation trading forums.

I signed up and immediately began to send out EDH cards—[card]Balefire Liege[/card], [card]Fauna Shaman[/card], [card]Scapeshift[/card] (before Valakut received the unbanhammer). Later that evening, I signed up for the PucaTrade forums and found that one user was simply requesting that people send him [card]Snow-Covered Mountain[/card]s. Coldsnap or Ice Age, he didn’t seem to care which or how many. It happened that I had a number of snow-covered lands, picked up as bulk commons along with a number of other non-bulk commons from a local seller. I sent him thirty-three [card]Snow-Covered Mountain[/card]s, along with a couple of [card]Stonecloaker[/card]s, totaling just under the 2,150 points I needed for my first [card]Cavern of Souls[/card].

Back to Priming

Now that your address has been listed, let’s get down to the first Herculean task you must complete: listing your cards! This is another aspect of PucaTrade which has been made significantly easier with the advent of Revised. While in Beta, if you wanted any hope of being able to send significant quantities of cards, you had to put every single one of your cards onto your Haves list—obviously this was crazy infeasible and inefficient and very few people actually bothered to list all the cards they had available to send.

With Revised, however, all Want lists are entirely public (so long as you have the points necessary to receive your cards), which means that if you really want to grind out points by sending out piles of low-value cards to work your way up to duals, a lot of the grunt work is already taken care of for you. Thanks to Revised, the extent of your work boils down to listing your high-value cards and other cards that you’d like to see move as quickly as possible. These cards will show up on your “Auto-Matching” send list, which only shows cards on your Haves List that people actively want and have the points for.

Unless you are blessed with a significant inventory of highly-desired Legacy and EDH staples, your auto-matching list is going to be relatively small a lot of the time. There are a lot of Standard staples (and commons and uncommons) sitting on my Haves list, and yet all that is presently on my auto-matching send list is a [card]Liliana of the Veil[/card], some [card]Inkmoth Nexus[/card]es, and a pair of [card]Rubblebelt Raiders[/card]. Yet, in the past week I’ve sent out a [card]Griselbrand[/card], a [card]Spellskite[/card], and a set of [card]Karn Liberated[/card], and I check PucaTrade only once or twice a day.

The auto-matching send list is a very interesting bit of tech, but I’m of the firm belief that Revised’s new “universal” send list is directly responsible for a rate of sent cards much higher than anything PucaTrade could have anticipated when the site first started. In the first day of Revised alone, the new list allowed me to send nearly $200 of cards out, solely by virtue that I’d forgotten to put them onto my haves list and just assumed that no one ever wanted them. It’s a grinder’s paradise, and even for the omnipresent high-value wants, savvy traders will keep in mind that foil Lorwyn [card]Cryptic Command[/card] or Beta [card]Hypnotic Specter[/card] when they’re making their rounds at local game stores.

The send list itself is broken up into four ascending/descending lists: the card’s value in PucaPoints, the user requesting, the points that the user requesting has available, and the name of the card itself. I prefer to show the list with card value descending; it gives me a good idea of what high-value cards people are presently pursuing, in addition to alerting me to sudden and obvious spikes in the values of certain cards.

Mana Drain is apparently the card of the day

I also knew immediately when one user saved up enough points to request Beta Moxes. That was an exciting moment.

Being able to see a user’s available points is an incredibly important resource. I’ve made a number of trades that (at first) I probably wouldn’t have agreed to, but a quick sift through their public want list allowed me to pad the 300 point trade with various 10 to 25 point commons and uncommons (and bulk rares). An individual’s want list can be accessed through the send a card list by clicking on their name—but it’s much easier to sort the send list by “user points, descending,” which gives you a pretty clear look at what people with a lot of points are hoping to be sent. Being able to move otherwise bulk cards is on the same level of efficiency as bulking out commons to Cool Stuff, Inc. or adventuresON. For a lot of folks, the grind isn’t worth the investment, but if you know your collection pretty well, then the additional effort is negligible.

Weekend of January 17-19 Review

Michael Cuevas

This weekend I was fortunate enough to attend a Star City Invitational Qualifier event at a local game shop, Spanky’s Card Shop in Kansas City, Missouri. There were upward of 60 players in attendance and there was a fairly diverse meta-game represented despite the continued success of the mono-colored decks. One deck in particular put up very impressive results at this particular tournament. Designed by Team Como, this unique build of RUG devotion put 2 decks into the top 4 of the IQ, both going undefeated through the swiss portion of the tournament.

[deck title= RUG Devotion Eric Schreiber 3rd place Star City Invitational Qualifier Spanky’s Card Shop 1/19/2014]

[Creatures]

*4 Elvish Mystic

*3 Voyaging Satyr

*4 Sylvan Caryatid

*4 Burning Tree Emissary

*3 Nylea’s Disciple

*2 Polukranos, World Eater

*2 Nylea, God of the Hunt

*3 Prophet of Kruphix

*1 Prime Speaker Zegana

*2 Sylvan Primordial

*2 Progenitor Mimic

[/Creatures]
[Spells]

*3 Jace, Architect of Thought

*4 Garruk, Caller of Beasts

[/Spells]
[Land]

*4 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx

*4 Temple of Mystery

*4 Temple of Abandon

*4 Breeding Pool

*4 Stomping Ground

*2 Steam Vents

*1 Forest

[/Land]

[Sideboard]

*2 Sylvan Primordial

*3 Mistcutter Hydra

*1 Bident of Thassa

*1 Nylea’s Disciple

*1 Polukranos, World Eater

*2 Xenagos, the Reveler

*3 Mizzum Mortars

*2 Cyclonic Rift
[/Sideboard]
[/deck]

Granted a tournament of roughly 60 players is a small sample size, I really think that there is some excellent potential from this and similar builds. This deck capitalizes on the explosiveness of [card]Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx[/card]. This deck also demonstrated the power of [card]Prophet of Kruphix[/card]. A similar list was showcased this week on the Star City “Deck tech.” That deck did not run Prophet, and I think by doing so missed out on some of the most explosive potential that the deck can have. Prophet is kill on sight, and with [card]Garruk, Caller of Beasts[/card] as well as [card]Jace, Architect of Thought[/card] providing plenty of ammunition, you frequently have threats to dump into play with all the extra mana. Prophet may never be a huge role player in standard, but even so, I recommend picking up an extra play set or two in trades if you have the opportunity. At $2 on TCG right now, its a low risk. With foil copies going for four times that much, its obvious that casual players have found ways to abuse this card already. The power level of the card is there and with the right environment, and/or shell this card could be a real role player.

Standard:

SCG Open Columbus Standard Decks

I had to double and triple check. Not a single copy of Mono-black in the top 8 of the Open this week! Unfortunately, I don’t think this is a sign that the deck is going away. Perhaps just evolving. We did see two copies of Black/White Midrange in the top 8, which is basically the same shell, with [card]Blood Baron of Vizkopa[/card] and this week featuring [card]Elspeth, Sun’s Champion.[/card] I think main deck [card]Ratchet Bomb[/card] is a pretty effective way to win the [card]Pack Rat[/card] war as well and something many decks of this ilk are moving toward.

A new champion was crowned this week in Big Boros. While the deck is quite impressive in it’s own right, holy cow Batman! Is Star City seriously asking $40.00 for [card]Mutavault[/card] right now? What is the ceiling on this card? When is the madness going to stop? In my opinion, very soon. I believe that we are nearing the top of this wild ride for [card]Mutavault[/card] at least during its run in standard. Right now there are many one color, and two color mana bases. When that ends, and people start playing more colors than one, Mutavault should see a decline in the number of copies decks can get away with playing. Furthermore, M14 is still in print, and if this card goes any higher, the amount of the set that gets opened and redeemed on magic online should begin to drive the price point back down.

Big Boros clearly has some very effective tools and combos, [card]Assemble the Legion[/card] plus [card]Purphoros, God of the Forge[/card] for example seems like a good place to start. While the deck runs two copies of the aforementioned [card]Mutavault[/card] it doesn’t run a single copy of [card]Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx[/card]. Coincidentally, the second place deck this weekend also had access to multiple copies of both Purphoros and [card]Assemble the Legion[/card] in its 75. Both decks have access to four copies of [card]Stormbreath Dragon[/card]. Some are selecting to play Stormbreath in place of [card]Thundermaw Hellkite[/card] in Modern. It is unclear at this point which is a better choice, the protection from white Stormbreath has being quite relevant in the format, but both are viable options. Nonetheless, Thundermaw is climbing in price as are most modern played cards right now. [card]Stormbreath Dragon[/card] likely has room to grow in price. Last year at this time [card]Thundermaw Hellkite[/card] was valued at $40. Different format, different card, but there is definitely room for [card]Stormbreath Dragon[/card] to move up in value.

SCG Open Columbus Legacy Decklists

Legacy for the last few weeks has been a showcase of ways to go over, through, or completely ignore [card]True-Name Nemesis[/card]. This weekend was no different in that regard. Reanimator is an excellent way to ignore the existence of [card]True-Name Nemesis[/card]. One card to note from the list, as well as the second place Sneak and Show list is the addition of [card]Ashen Rider[/card]. Although this card is still going for $1.50 at TCG, one retailer is already asking double that. Foil copies are $11.00 on TCG and I anticipate that long term this card will experience a steady increase in value.

My condolences to Joe Bernal following the epic top deck in the semifinals. But check out the decklist. [card]Engineered Explosives[/card] on three kills [card]True-Name Nemesis[/card], EE is Modern legal, and its still selling for $5. The From the Vault Twenty [card]Jace, the Mind Sculptor[/card] can still be picked up for $85. I do not anticipate that this will continue for very much longer. The entire FTV 20 can currently be purchased on ebay for roughly $125. This is criminally low and seems like an excellent long term investment.

Jund Depths cracked into the top 8 again this week, and although the deck itself is somewhat a fringe strategy, Jund is not. Jund leans heavily on [card]Liliana of the Veil[/card] and the card is gradually climbing in value due to its play in both Legacy and Modern. Grab copies now because unless [card]Liliana of the Veil[/card] sees a reprint, it will continue to climb in cost.

With Modern season still months away, several cards are spiking rapidly in cost. If there is a deck you want to build for the season, do so early. Like last month. Modern cards across the board are only going to continue to climb with [card]Grove of the Burnwillows[/card] and [card]Wurmcoil Engine[/card] being the latest examples. There will be more. Enjoy the Born of the Gods spoilers!

Follow me on Twitter! Have thoughts on this weekend’s events or my picks here? Please share in the comments below!

C(ube)+C(ommander) Magic Factory #1 – Power Hungry Review

Max Brett

Welcome to the first installment of C(ube)+C(ommander) Magic Factory, a series specific to these two popular casual formats. The focus of C+C will be on card selection, strategy, and budgeting. For the casual player, you will find lists, strategy, and a theme of optimizing on a budget. For the non-casual player or financier, this series will serve as a window to casual tables and the cards that are getting played there, which I hope can help the community get a better sense of card evaluation and demand for casual markets.

This column will examine recent Magic releases and assess their impact on the Cube and Commander formats. For the next several weeks, we’ll be looking at the Commander 2013 decks. C2013 has been hugely relevant for casual players, contributing to overhauls in my cube and many new commanders popping up at tables. Coincidentally, the first iteration of my cube was built from MODO set redemption, leftovers from my early paper days, and the Commander 2011 decks, with the latter providing some low-cost reprints and cube-worthy unique cards. Commander 2013, in my opinion, is even better for cubes and EDH players, so let’s get into the analysis!

The grading system I will use is outlined below and is an attempt at reflecting the way cards are played in and chosen for Cube and Commander; cubes generally want cards which are extremely powerful or support at least one archetype. Commander decks want their cards to shape the play experience. The first grade for each card is a Commander grade, the second a Cube grade.

The Grading System

Commander:

[A+]: Best in Class. These cards are at the top of the list for any deck wanting the effect.

[A]: Excellent card according to two or more of: power level, size-of-effect, card interaction, or politics.

[B]: Excellent card according to one of: power level, size-of-effect, card interaction, or politics.

[C]: Solid role-filler or theme-supporter.

[D]: Playable, but better options exist.

[F]: A knife at a gun fight.

Cube:

[A+]: First-pick card on power level alone or tier-one for associated archetype(s).

[A]: High-powered alone or in the context of two or more archetypes.

[B]: High-powered in the context of one archetype.

[C]: Role-filler in a niche archetype or mid-powered utility card.

[D]: Might see play in large or restricted lists (e.g. peasant)

[F]: Not playable in Cube.

Jund Deck: Power Hungry

Commanders: [card]Prossh, Skyraider of Kher[/card] [A+]/[D], [card]Shattergang Brothers[/card][C-]/[F] and [card]Sek’kuar, Deathkeeper[/card] [D+]/[F].

While I have only seen one Shattergang deck, I have seen several players build Prossh and the dragon looks to be very pushed in terms of power level and potential for card interaction. Prossh is the perfect general for any deck running a sacrifice theme and will continue to become more powerful as more cards are printed. Prossh does three things very well: threaten large amounts of commander damage, provide sacrificial food, and act as a zero-mana sacrifice outlet. In my opinion, Prossh is this set’s [card]Kaalia of the Vast[/card] and players will be brewing Prossh decks for a long time. Sek’kuar is similar to Prossh, but even if the tokens dealt commander damage, it would still be worse in every way except mana cost. Shattergang is deceptively fair, as sacrificing one of your permanents for one of each of your opponents’ merely brings you to parity. To really have fun and abuse them you need to cheat on both mana and food which is difficult in a game where players will disrupt you once they see your plan.

None of the cards can be considered for cube, since for the few cubes that do have a shard section there are better options in Jund like [card]Hellkite Overlord[/card] ([card]Reanimate[/card]/[card]Natural Order[/card] target) and [card]Broodmate Dragon[/card] (value), though Prossh may synergize better with a list supporting a sacrifice theme.

New Cards:

[card]Fell Shepherd[/card] [D]/[F]

While way too clunky and underpowered for cube, this card could find a home in weak EDH lists until he gets unfavorably compared to [card]Sheoldred, Whispering One[/card]. Either bringing dudes back into play or not having the “this turn” clause would be enough to get him some love but as is he’s too little value for too much mana.

[card]Ophiomancer[/card] [B-]/[B+]

Literally and figuratively a rattlesnake card, Ophiomancer functions much like a black [card]Ghostly Prison[/card] in the early game and as a combo enabler in sacrifice decks. The card is much worse if you don’t want both applications as the effect is not always big enough. In cube, Ophiomancer is being adopted in lists supporting [card]Pox[/card]/[card]Braids, Cabal Minion[/card] strategies, though it can also be slotted into control or equipment-based aggro decks as three power spread across twp guys. As a black three-drop that comes with value and synergy, expect him to stay in lists for quite a while.

[card]Primal Vigor[/card] [A]/[D]

This card is getting played in EDH and some players want it in multiple decks, indicating strong demand for the card even if it compares poorly to [card]Doubling Season[/card]. The symmetrical nature of the card, as well as limiting it to tokens and +1/+1 counters, may make Primal Vigor seem more innocuous than it’s older brother. But the fact is, it enables most of the combos Doubling Season does while making you less of a target. This, [card]Marath, Will of the Wild[/card], and all ramp seems like a good deck, which demonstrates the scope of applications outside the Jund deck it comes in.

In Cube, this could find its way into lists that really want to support tokens, though the symmetry comes with additional risks. I run Doubling Season on power level and synergy with planeswalkers, two ways in which Primal Vigor fails.

[card]Widespread Panic[/card] [D]/[F]

Some players are down on this card because you don’t shuffle in the card that goes on the library, but this shouldn’t really influence whether or not this card is good since losing the worst card in your hand versus drawing it again but losing a random card from your library aren’t very different outcomes. This is decent disruption against a ramp deck, but does so little so late without furthering your game plan, so it’s not seeing play. This card is even worse in cube as there aren’t enough shuffle effects to make it good.

[card]Tempt with Vengeance[/card] [C]/[A]

Tempting offer is an interesting political mechanic in that it models a turn-based prisoner’s dilemma. Usually the correct choice is to never take the offer, though for a table there has to be some implicit trust since to be the only opponent to take an offer gains that player an advantage over everyone but the offering player. If the first player takes the offer then everyone who follows is pressured to take the offer to keep up, but if the first players decline the offer then the player in the final seat has an opportunity to take that advantage at no risk. What neuters the mechanic somewhat is that the boost gained by being even the only player at a large table to take the offer is negated by the greater advantage gained by the offerer, an advantage gap which widens the more people take the offer. I am looking forward to seeing these cards played, but with the exception of [card]Tempt with Discovery[/card], they have not yet caught on in my groups. The value and enjoyment to be had from these can vary widely depending on how your group solves the subgame and if there can ever be any expectation of accepted offers.

All of this basically asks the question: “Do you want this card even if no one ever takes the offer?” For [card]Tempt with Vengeance[/card], this is a yes if you are playing a token theme or especially a Purphoros deck. There are opportunities for abuse, making this is one of the better tempting offer cards in my book.

In Cube, this card is excellent. In one-on-one duels, there is almost no consequence as to whether the offer is taken or not so the card becomes predictable yet still excellent, functioning as a burn spell that has the potential to do more than X damage over multiple turns while synergizing with many tier one red cards like [card]Purphoros, God of the Forge[/card], [card]Hellrider[/card], and [card]Hero of Oxid Ridge[/card]. I cut [card]Red Sun’s Zenith[/card] for it and have been very happy, since X-burn spells feel like a necessary evil but are underpowered compared to [card]Lightning Bolt[/card] variants at almost every point in the game.

[card]Endless Cockroaches[/card] [C-]/[D-]

This recursive effect is something that both graveyard-centric EDH decks and cube lists would want, but this card compares so unfavourably on mana cost with the available options that I don’t see it being run for very long once those options are discovered. Interestingly, if this card cost 1B, it would get included right alongside [card]Reassembling Skeleton[/card], as coming into play untapped offsets only returning on death.

[card]Hooded Horror[/card] [D-]/[F]

As a pseudo-unblockable creature, this card could represent four damage a turn to a player who has the board gummed up. This, however, is the best case scenario and the other scenarios are pretty bad. In cube, the mana cost is too high for the effect, even though the clause is more controllable and many decks would want an unblockable 4/4.

[card]Curse of Predation[/card] [C]/[A]

In Commander, these curses really want four or more players at the table to do their thing. l think they will slowly make their way out of players’ decks unless large games are routine. This curse is good enough in a weenie/token deck that it can be taken advantage of without the political angle, though the incentive is significant.

Curse of Predation is excellent in Cube as it’s a superior anthem effect to the alternatives and in a colour that loves to get use out of its mana dorks once they’re off ramp duty. Green aggro is becoming an unsupported archetype and what makes this card so great is that it enables that strategy all by itself by giving all the mana dorks legitimate P/T. That it’s uncommon is nice since now C/Ubes have access to an anthem.

[card]Curse of Shallow Graves[/card] [C]/[A-]

Politically, this curse is probably worse than Curse of Predation since most decks can leverage larger creatures more than they can a random 2/2. But both cards should play similarly since the incentive is tangible and the deck running the curse can be built to best use the token.

In Cube, this curse is another great inclusion since it supports both aggro and sacrifice themes. It’s sweet in B/R or B/W all-sideways, all-the-time decks since your dudes are all the same size and the token just replaces whatever gets blocked. This card also shines in graveyard strategies, allowing you to grind value off [card]Bloodghast[/card] and [card]Gravecrawler[/card].

[card]Curse of Chaos[/card] [D]/[F]

Unlike the previous two curses, where the incentive is worth approximately a card, looting is not worth a card. This may be useful in a Grixis reanimator deck but will generally be tough to leverage. It will incentivize your opponents only when they have dead cards to get rid of. In cube, this effect needs to be on a two-mana creature to compete.

[card]Restore[/card] [C+]/[F]

In a multiplayer game, this can reliably get you a [card]Terramorphic Expanse[/card] or panorama and should be thought of as another [card]Rampant Growth[/card]. In a higher-powered meta, you can expect to get fetches and [card]Strip Mine[/card]s. In Cube, there just aren’t enough reliable ways to get lands into the graveyard by turn two, or enough ways take advantage of them once they get there.

Notable Reprints

[card]Mass Mutiny[/card] [B]/[F]

Fixed [card]Insurrection[/card] is still great against most decks and won’t lose you the friends needed to make this card good. Instead of killing the whole table, you get to take out one person, actually have the chance to play with their toys and benefit from attack and damage triggers, making this a more fun card. In one-on-one duels, including Cube matches, this is a bad [card]Threaten[/card], and Threaten doesn’t make the cut.

[card]Hua Tuo, Honored Physician[/card] [C]/[F]

Since Hua Tuo doesn’t cheat on mana or cards, what you’re recurring with him has to be so good that you don’t care. While [card]Genesis[/card] is better at grinding value, Hua Tuo is better at protecting a game plan revolving around oppressive and expensive creatures. However, being fragile, expect him to die once it’s clear that his next activation will be the broken one. Since the Cube deck that might want this effect is black, the 1GG casting cost hurts him too much to give him a real chance.

[card]Goblin Sharpshooter[/card] [A]/[C]

Goblin Sharpshooter plays so many ways for a little 2R 1/1. He shuts down token strategies, can combo the table, acts as a rattlesnake card, and can clear out a large swath of creatures with surprisingly few death triggers. Suit him up with a [card]Basilisk Collar[/card] and watch the carnage. This is a super reprint that will likely climb in value as more people get the chance to play with him and want additional copies, potentially even preferring the C2013 version for the sweet art.

Most Cube lists have one or two pingers, but this guy is usually beat out by [card]Grim Lavamancer[/card] and [card]Cunning Sparkmage[/card]. The non-untapping clause hurts him more in Cube, as you can’t always draft a way for him to go off, but I could see him being the second pinger with proper support, like [card]Goblin Bombardment[/card].

[card]Goblin Bombardment[/card] [C]/[C+]

This card is bad if you’re playing fair and will win the game if you’re cheating with it. Zero mana for the sacrifice is what makes Bombardment tick, and if you have ways to load up on tokens or recur cheap creatures, this becomes a great addition.

Many cubes run [card]Mortarpod[/card] and/or graveyard recursion so there is clearly a demand for this type of effect. Being black would make it more desirable, as a straight red deck would have a tough time taking advantage of the card beyond [card]Squee, Goblin Nabob[/card] or a token theme.

[card]Endrek Sahr, Master Breeder[/card] [B]/[D-]

Though Endrek’s body is fragile, his ability has lots of potential as can be seen from its inclusion here. Endrek Sahr into Prossh threatens at least 18 commander damage. Being legendary is also nice, as he can act as a commander, though needing to untap for value makes him weaker. This together with the mana cost hurts this card for Cube. Playing it alongside [card]Braids, Cabal Minion[/card] or [card]Smokestack[/card] seems great, but coming out after those prison cards could be bad.

[card]Fecundity[/card] [C+]/[D]

Sharing this effect with the table is fine if you’re set up to draw the most, a task made easier with the new commanders. [card]Howling Mine[/card] sees significant play in EDH, and this card is lots better when you want it to be. Be careful not to run it out blind, since if an opponent can abuse it then remove it, he will likely be much further ahead than the one card doled out by the Mine. For Cube, we see another card with a desirable effect for a black recursion deck but in a color that doesn’t fit the theme. If you can get this card to support a second archetype, it may be worth the slot in a larger list. After all, it is splashable and drawing lots of cards is fun.

[card]Inferno Titan[/card] [B+]/[B]

Titans are the defacto value creatures in EDH games and this one comes in a color that doesn’t usually get card advantage. Inferno Titan doesn’t synergize with what most red decks are trying to do, but it can get a spot on power level alone. Titan would probably be an A if it had “Creature Type – Dragon” printed on the card. All the titans have been included in rare cubes since their printing and a reprint here makes obtaining one even easier for a cube builder. Inferno Titan can be the top of a midrange/aggro deck that can get to six mana and is also a high pick for [card]Wildfire[/card] decks. Again, it is sad that the best (and often only) red six-drop in cube isn’t a dragon.

Overall – Value: [B+] / Playability: [A]

Power Hungry comes with a tier-one Commander, the best P3K reprint, the best tempting offer card, [card]Restore[/card], [card]Goblin Sharpshooter[/card] (with sick new art), a casual staple in [card]Primal Vigor[/card], and the two best curses. It also has a Cube staple in [card]Ophiomancer[/card] and is said to be the deck that plays the best right out the box. Of all five precons, I believe this to be the one with the most casual appeal. It could be the slow gainer once all the hype surrounding [card]True-Name Nemesis[/card] and Mind Seize has died down.

Join me next time when I review Mind Seize!

Contact:

email: djkensai at gmail dot com

twitter: @djkensai

Getting L.U.C.K.Y: Mixing Personal and Magic Finances

Caleb Gothberg

What do you do for a living that pays your bills?

The answer to that is probably not Magic finance. If it is, great job, dude. For the rest of us out here, we have to work at something else to pay our bills. So make sure that you do that.

One of the biggest keys I have found to staying on top of my Magic finance is keeping money separated strictly for Magic purchases. I have X in my Magic account, which is only to be used for Magic and nothing else. I also have Y coming in every month from my real job. That money pays bills and buys fun stuff. By keeping my two revenue streams separate, I maintain a ton of walk-away power when it comes to Magic. I don’t need any of my Magic money for anything but Magic.

Before you make a decision to pull money from one category and throw it at the other, think long and hard. I find that things become way more clear when it’s laid out on paper in front of my face.

Write things down!

Putting things on paper is an often neglected tool that can help you tremendously in every aspect of life, but especially in Magic. It makes you commit to things more than just thinking them would. Before you go and just take money from your PayPal account and throw it at something, write down specifics. It will usually clarify everything and give you a little better perspective on whatever it is that you are doing.

If you borrow money from yourself, you will almost never pay yourself back.

There is something about not having that responsibility to someone else. Even if you do “pay yourself back,” you still don’t.

For example, let’s say that you have $1,000 for Magic. By making solid investments and speculations, you are able to make $100 every two months, or 10%. That means that after a year, you would have $1771.56. If you decided after two months to borrow $300 and didn’t pay it back, at the end of that same year you would only have $1288.41. That’s almost a $500 difference. Even if you pay yourself back in four months, that still only gives you $1687.71. That’s a $100 difference! That might not seem like much to you, but think of if you had put that money into [card]Nightveil Specter[/card]. That could be $900!

Before you were into MTG finance, you paid your bills, right?

So just keep doing it the same way that you did. You figured it out before, just keep doing it until you get to the point where you can pull money from your finance money without affecting your card flow.

Most of us just can’t do that. I look at my money made by and for Magic as totally separate from the rest of my money. If you are unsure if you can mix them, a good rule of thumb says you shouldn’t. I know that there are exceptions to everything, I get that. But I have met the guy who was the exception, which means that the rest of us aren’t. The rest of us have to grind out on the daily to get where we need to be.

So how do you figure it out?

For me personally, never. I can always find more buying opportunities so I never have stagnate capital in Magic. I’ve heard the number for most people is between $20-30,000 in inventory before one can make a wage for oneself. But I always think, “Okay, I could get a nicer car… or I could put the money back in and make even more.” I will always be a numbers guy, so I will always pick option B.

Most people can justify spending some money outside of Magic, but at what point are you comfortable doing that? Each person has their number, where is yours at? This will depend on a few different things, but it mostly has to do with your goals.

Make goals!

There is a tremendous amount of research that all says the same thing about goals: make them! Without goals, you will consistently find yourself in spots you don’t want to be. I plan on doing a whole article specifically on goals, but in the meantime just make some. If nothing else, it will make you aware of where you are and what direction you should be going. Without them, you won’t find yourself Getting L.U.C.K.Y very often. So eliminate the luck and try making some goals this week.

This week’s questions: How do you keep your “Magic budget” intact? What goals do you have as a financier? Please share in the comments!

Pitt Imps Podcast #52 – One Year In…

Pitt Imps 2:06:54

In this weeks episode of the Pitt Imps we announce a new sponsorship on our 1 year mark as well as some things that are coming down the pipe in the future. We don’t forget to talk a bunch of Modern and quickly go over the SCG event. There was also a ton of news that got released since our last cast and even had Dr. Jeebus come on to go over some of it.

@dr_jeebus – guest

Your hosts: Angelo, Will, & Ryan

Angelo’s Twitter: @Ganksuou

Will’s Twitter: @will_flacid

Ryan’s Twitter: @brotheryan
Show’s Email: [email protected]

Puzzle Box – The Final Golden Reveal

Andrew Colman

Hello everyone, and welcome to the Puzzle Box!

Here we are. This is it! This is the mutli-colored section of the cube, and it’s the last section to be posted. After today, anyone can come to this website and find a powerful and balanced cube for under $200. This is exciting! I’m just going to dig right in because there’s lot’s to be said this week.

General Notes on the Gold Section of the Puzzle Box

In this cube, the largest and most detrimental omission due to the financial constraints is the mana base. That being said, just because you don’t have all of the very expensive lands does not mean you won’t have a lot of fun playing this list. When I started building my own cube, I had only a few of the M10 check lands and ten [Card]Terramorphic Expanse[/Card]s as fixing—and it was an absolute blast to play. Why is that? Because you are going to build the best decks you can, they will be at balanced power levels, blowouts won’t happen, and games will just be fun. I would, however, recommend that the mana base is the first place you put any real money into this list. If you don’t already have the ten shocks, you can start by getting the M10 check lands as they are quite inexpensive. However you feel like acquiring the lands for cube is up to you. One thing I would suggest, though, is that you add them in cycles to keep things balanced.

Regarding the dual lands, and mana rocks for that matter, in our list I chose the best lands and mana artifacts within our price restrictions. Each archetype got one dual land and one mana rock—which one depended on the focus of the archetype.

Control and midrange decks such as Dimir, Azorius, Selesnya, Orzhov, Golgari, Simic, and Izzet got the Ravnica bounce land and its signet. Rakdos was the only guild to get its pain land and Mirrodin talisman. Gruul and Boros each got its corresponding pain land and signet. These two guilds are good for aggro but also for [card]Wildfire[/card] deck. The pain land gives each deck the option for a turn-one [Card]Goblin Guide[/Card] and a mana rock aids in breaking the symmetry of [Card]Wildfire[/Card] and [Card]Armageddon[/Card].

I think it’s interesting how things ended up balancing out. You’ll find that the signets will be very high picks in this cube because of the general lack of fixing. What this might mean is that aggro decks will be happy to main deck a [Card]Pillage[/Card] or [Card]Disenchant[/Card], because it could very well blow out an opponent that is relying on signets for fixing. I walked in late at my LGS one night and there was a six-man team cube draft going on. Two team members were looking at a decks and a comment was made that the deck just died to a [Card]Stone Rain[/Card] because the mana base was so greedy. In our case, we don’t run [Card]Stone Rain[/card], as there aren’t that many targets for it (compared to a normal cube). For this list, where the concentration of mana-fixing artifacts is very high, that comment translates rather well to [Card]Disenchant[/Card].

Lets look at the lists.

Azorius

These colors are firmly rooted in control. There won’t be much opportunity for a U/W tempo deck because we’re missing cards like [Card]Geist of Saint Traft[/Card], [Card]Delver of Secrets[/Card], [Card]True-Name Nemesis[/Card], and [Card]Master of Waves[/Card]. If you have these and would like to push blue tempo rather than control, that’s a good place to start.

[deck title=Azorius]
[Cards]
Azorius Chancery
Judge’s Familiar
Azorius Signet
Azorius Charm
Plumeveil
[/Cards]
[/deck]

Dimir

Dimir’s cards are a little more flexible. [Card]Psychatog[/Card] and [Card]Shadowmage Infiltrator[/Card] are good cards to have in both U/B tempo or U/B control decks. This is a better color combination for tempo than U/W, mainly because there is so much instant-speed removal and more removal attached to creatures.

[deck title=Dimir]
[Cards]
Dimir Aqueduct
Dimir Signet
Far // Away
Psychatog
Shadowmage Infiltrator
[/Cards]
[/deck]

Rakdos

Rakdos in this list is pure aggro, mainly made up of above-curve one- and two-drops and unconditional removal. Fixing that is immediate and causes yourself damage: what more could you want? An obvious exclusion is [Card]Murderous Redcap[/Card]. Add it if you’d like, but I wanted to keep this section as focused on aggro as possible due to the fixing that we have available to us.

[deck title=Rakdos]
[Cards]
Sulfurous Springs
Rakdos Cackler
Spike Jester
Talisman of Indulgence
Terminate
[/Cards]
[/deck]

Gruul

Gruul is a bit of a mashup in this list. It has two one-drops and a [card]Bloodbraid Elf[/card]. I included the two one-drops to help out aggro decks and [Card]Bloodbraid Elf[/Card] because it’s a card I am extremely happy to have in my deck all the time! If you don’t like this section, there is certainly room for innovation here. Have at it!

[deck title=Gruul]
[Cards]
Kird Ape
Tattermunge Maniac
Bloodbraid Elf
Gruul Signet
Karplusan Forest
[/Cards]
[/deck]

Selesnya

Selesnya is by far the deepest guild as far as the quantity of quality cards. Luckily for us, [Card]Kitchen Finks[/Card] was just reprinted and can be found fairly inexpensively. However, when Modern season hits, this may need to be adjusted as it could break our budget depending on if Reddit decides to buy it out.

[deck title=Selesnya]
[Cards]
Selesnya Sanctuary
Dryad Militant
Qasali Pridemage
Selesnya Signet
Kitchen Finks
[/Cards]
[/deck]

Orzhov

I really like this selection of cards. [Card]Lingering Souls[/Card] is very powerful and has thankfully been reprinted enough times to allow for its inclusion. I find [Card]Tidehollow Sculler[/Card] to be a very fun and powerful card to play. [Card]Mortify[/Card] is awesome removal with a sometimes-relevant second option. If I know that my opponent has a [Card]Curse of the Shallow Graves[/Card], I’m going to be happy this kills it!

[deck title=Orzhov]
[Cards]
Orzhov Basilica
Tidehollow Sculler
Orzhov Signet
Mortify
Lingering Souls
[/Cards]
[/deck]

Golgari

This is an interesting section. In most lists, it includes removal spells and more removal spells, such as [Card]Abrupt Decay[/Card], [Card]Pernicious Deed[/Card], [Card]Putrefy[/Card], [Card]Maelstrom Pulse[/Card], and [Card]Vraska the Unseen[/Card]. We can afford none of these, so we get to include all the fun creatures that other cubes don’t get to include! As Mark Rosewater always says, “Restriction breeds creativity,” and being creative is always more fun.

[deck title=Golgari]
[Cards]
Golgari Rot Farm
Lotleth Troll
Putrid Leech
Golgari Signet
Dreg Mangler
[/Cards]
[/deck]

Simic

Simic is great because it lends us one of the very few combat tricks in the cube: [Card]Snakeform[/Card]! Again, because of our monetary restrictions, we are going to need to include some cards that are not as good, but may end up being more fun. So are they truly not as good, even when more fun? Only you can say.

[deck title=Simic]
[Cards]
Simic Growth Chamber
Simic Signet
Trygon Predator
Snakeform
Mystic Snake
[/Cards]
[/deck]

Izzet

Izzet is the most shallow of our guilds. The one staple that we have in this guild is [Card]Ral Zarek[/Card], but he doesn’t make or break the section. Again, here we have room for innovation. If you would like to push U/x tempo you could add [Card]Frostburn Weird[/Card] here. Use your imagination and see if you can come up with some fun things to include.

[deck title=Izzet]
[Cards]
Izzet Boilerworks
Izzet Signet
Fire // Ice
Izzet Charm
Prophetic Bolt[/Cards]
[/deck]

Boros

Here we have the home of aggro: one-drops and some burn spells. I would have included the Mirrodin talisman had it existed to help out aggro further. But I’m not sad to include the signet instead, because we have [Card]Wildfire[/Card] in the red section. Not much else to be said here other than if you have an [Card]Ajani Vengent[/Card], you should get that guy in here because he is a pack one, pick one all day long!

[deck title=Boros]
[Cards]
Battlefield Forge
Figure of Destiny
Boros Signet
Boros Charm
Lightning Helix
[/Cards]
[/deck]

And So It Has All Come Together

Everything about cube can be debated. I invite that debate in the comment section. Considering that I have $8 left from the $200 budget, you could easily call me out for not including cards like [Card]Murderous Redcap[/Card]. However, I made sure each section got at least one or two of its non-budget inclusions and kept things at their lowest cost which I felt was in the spirit of this list.

Here I have included the link to this list on cube tutor so you can see it in its fullness.

I will be back next week to wrap up and reflect on this project and talk about some plans going forward. If you have any ideas of what you would like to see, please share them in the comment section. Or if you’ve been building this list as we have been going along, (and I know there is at least one or two of you), I would love to hear about it in the comment section. Or you can hit me up on Twitter @awcolman.

As always everyone, thanks for hangin’.

Andrew

A Modern Merfolk Primer from Fish’s Biggest Fan

Corbin Hosler

It’s not a secret to anyone who knows me that I love Merfolk. Or that anyone who may have heard me say anything in passing knows that I love Merfolk. Or that anyone who has ever had a single limited interaction with me knows I love Merfolk.

I have a good reason, after all. I’ve won several thousands dollars with the deck, from splitting the finals of an SCG Open at my first-ever Legacy tournament and an SCG Invitational after that.

Most people know me as a finance guy, and while that’s true, I like to think I also have some playing chops. The last major tournament I played in was Grand Prix Las Vegas, where I finished in the top 32 of a 4,500-person tournament in which I had zero byes. I’ve made top eight of a few PTQs and had a rating that earned me two byes (back when the system used an ELO score and I played competitively).

I’ve also played Merfolk since the day Modern was announced, so I like to think I know a thing or two about the deck. So for the rest of the article, at least pretend that I’m not a complete idiot.

Merfolk in Modern

Since Modern was created, I’ve been telling people that Merfolk was the best deck, and even though I knew it was a lie, I kept working to improve it. Thanks to the bannings and the new tools we’ve gotten for Fish, it’s actually a little less of a lie these days. Don’t believe me? A Merfolk deck made top 16 of Grand Prix Prague, just missing top eight in the last round.

There’s more. Every week, it seems a new “big name” is talking about it, and the results of this recent Premier Event on Magic Online also lend credence to the deck.

Merfolk also happens to be one of the more budget-friendly decks in the format, which doesn’t hurt it. Yes, [card]Mutavault[/card] is expensive, but most players have it in their Standard decks already, and even if they don’t, it is at least available for trade in many binders. Any deck that doesn’t need [card]Misty Rainforest[/card], [card]Scalding Tarn[/card], or [card]Verdant Catacombs[/card] to play will typically qualify as “budget” in Modern, and that’s not a bad thing at all.

So Why Would Someone Play Merfolk?

Several reasons. First of all, the deck is pretty flexible. You can adapt it based on the matchup: for aggro, add [card]Vapor Snag[/card]s; for Pod/Jund, add [card]Tidebinder Mage[/card]; and for combo, play more copies of [card]Spell Pierce[/card]. There’s also [card]Dismember[/card], which helps against most creature-based decks.

But why is Merfolk just now making a splash? The biggest reason has to be [card]Master of Waves[/card]. I wasn’t a fan of it on paper when it was spoiled, but it happens to do something extremely important for Merfolk that no card has done before: it beats Jund.

It’s not a stretch to say that the card can actually “solo” Jund. I’ve had unimpressive board states, like a single [card]Cursecather[/card] and [card]Spreading Seas[/card], and then slammed this guy and pretty much won on the spot.

The reason it’s so good is because it’s really just in the sweet spot. Making tokens means it can’t really be killed by [card]Liliana of the Veil[/card], a converted mana cost of four means it can’t be [card]Abrupt Decay[/card]ed, and protection from red means nothing in the typical Jund deck (outside of [card]Maelstrom Pulse[/card]) can touch it. Throw in the [card]Bloodbraid Elf[/card] banning from a while back, and suddenly what was your worst matchup is completely winnable.

It’s basically impossible to say that your Modern deck is good these days if it can’t handle Jund or just [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card]. Well, Merfolk can. It also presents a fast enough clock with just enough disruption to handle value decks like Pod or RWU.

You also have the distinct advantage of being an aggro deck that happens to be blue. This means you get access to counterspells that other aggro decks don’t. There’s also that whole islandwalk thing that is relevant in every single game thanks to [card]Spreading Seas[/card], a quirky card that happens to do everything you want it to while also serving as maindeckable hate for the Tron decks.

If you ask somebody who’s not familiar with Merfolk what the best card in the deck is, you’ll stump them for a few minutes before they eventually decide the right answer has to be [card]Aether Vial[/card].

But that’s wrong. The best card, by a mile, is [card]Silvergill Adept[/card]. It does everything you could possibly want to do. It costs two mana for your Vial, doesn’t take double blue to cast, is a Merfolk, and draws you a card. As we know, that last part is one of the most important things any Magic card can have on it, and every time your opponent has to trade a card for your Adept, you’re winning. I feel confident in saying that if Adept wasn’t a card, Merfolk wouldn’t be a deck. Of course, this is coming from the guy with this playmat:

The final piece of the puzzle to Merfolk’s new place in the world is [card]Thassa, God of the Sea[/card]. Another advantage Merfolk has over the other “turn dudes sideways” decks (besides the obvious [card]Aether Vial[/card] benefits) is that Thassa really helps you control your draws in the late game and prevent you from running out of gas.

The List

Before we go any further, here’s my current list:

[deck title=Modern Merfolk]

[creatures]

*4 Cursecatcher

*4 Master of the Pearl Trident

*4 Lord of Atlantis

*4 Silvergill Adept

*1 Sygg, River Cutthroat

*2 Phantasmal Image

*2 Master of Waves

*4 Merrow Reejery

*2 Thassa, God of the Sea

*1 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner

[/creatures]

[Spells]

*2 Spreading Seas

*4 Aether Vial

*4 Vapor Snag

*2 Spell Pierce

[/spells]

[Lands]

*3 Mutavault

*3 Cavern of Souls

*14 Island

[/lands]

[Sideboard]

*2 Spreading Seas

*1 Master of Waves

*1 Spell Pierce

*2 Hurkyl’s Recall

*2 Annul

*2 Threads of Disloyalty

*2 Relic of Progenitus

*1 Tidebinder Mage

*1 Unified Will

*1 Grafdigger’s Cage

[/sideboard]

[/deck]

The sideboard is obviously dependent on the metagame you’re facing, and mine varies regularly. I don’t play Magic Online, but I’ve tested extensively with this list in paper. For the last three weeks, I’ve taken first or second in a local weekly Modern tournament that averages 15 to 20 players.

Okay, let’s talk some specifics to my list, and I’ll touch on the sideboard at the end.

3 [card]Mutavault[/card]s

I’ll start with what’s probably the biggest head scratcher: the fact I only run three [card]Mutavault[/card]s right now.

Early in playtesting, I found that I would lose way too many games to simply not having access to double blue on turn two. [card]Mutavault[/card] is sweet, but if you can’t cast a lord on turn two, you’re just going to lose the game. I’ve gone up to 20 land from 19 since those games, so it’s possible the fourth would be okay, but I think the theory still holds. Over the course of a long tournament like a Grand Prix, you can’t really afford to lose any games to color screw in your one-color deck.

Here’s another way to look at it: there is a certain percentage of games you’re going to win by having a fourth [card]Mutavault[/card] in the deck; I just think that number is smaller than the games you’re going to lose because you don’t have access to two blue mana on turn two.

3 [card]Cavern of Souls[/card]/0 [card]Ghost Quarter[/card]/0 [card]Tectonic Edge[/card]

This is a metagame call for me. I get that you want a bunch of land destruction if Tron is rampant, but if it’s not, you get a ton more value out of Cavern.

There was one Tron deck in the top eight of GP Prague. There were 21 counterspells in that same top eight, and the winning deck ran eight of them. Extend that down to the top 16 and things become even more skewed toward counterspells.

I’ve tested the RWU matchup extensively, and having access to Cavern means there’s seven cards in your deck that can almost completely blank their counters. If you open on an [card]Aether Vial[/card] or a [card]Cavern of Souls[/card], a lot of the time you’ve effectively made them mulligan to six or even five cards. When their counterspells can’t stop you from developing your board, their point removal just doesn’t go far enough. Add in the fact that [card]Vapor Snag[/card] can allow you to save a lord from a removal spell or the fact that you can sometimes blow them out with a [card]Spell Pierce[/card], and suddenly the matchup is not all that scary.

And it’s not just RWU that runs counters. A lot of the combo decks rely on slowing you down for a turn with them, and the ability to fearlessly cast guys goes a long way toward accomplishing what Merfolk wants to do, which is overload the board quickly and throw in a timely piece of disruption.

1 [card]Sygg, River Cutthroat[/card]

Lists doing well seem to be split 50/50 on this right now, but I’ve been running it for around 18 months and will never cut it. It checks every major checkbox for Merfolk: it’s a two-drop, it has double blue for devotion, and it draws you cards. Since I can’t ignore the financial aspect, I’ll tell you that this could easily be the next Merfolk card to spike, especially since it’s from Shadowmoor.

I’ve heard the argument that Merfolk just wants to be as streamlined as possible and this card doesn’t help with that. I don’t buy it, though, because the point of streamlining your deck is to draw your best cards every game. Well, were I given the option, I would draw Sygg every single game. The problem is that you never, ever want to draw two of them, because it only has one power and is legendary. But I promise you will never be sad to draw this card. It punishes opponents for bolting themselves with lands, it makes their blocking awkward, it blocks plenty of relevant creatures early, and like Silvergill Adept, it keeps the gas coming.

2 [card]Spell Pierce[/card]

Spell Pierce is another one of those cards you don’t really want to see more than one of in a game. It’s great in the right situations or against the right decks, but it’s completely dead against others and can also be really clunky. I’m happy running two along with [card]Cursecatcher[/card] as a disruption suite against combo and control decks.

4 [card]Merrow Reejery[/card]

I include this card just so I can address all the tricks it enables. Remember, its ability triggers on casting, not on entering. So you can cast a Merfolk and get the trigger before it resolves, but you won’t get one from Vialing in a guy. If you have multiple copies on the field, you can actually generate mana with this by stacking the triggers to untap the same land and then tapping it for mana in between the resolution of the triggers. It also allows you to untap Vial or tap down one of your opponent’s blockers.

1 [card]Kira, Great Glass-Spinner[/card]

As the deck tech at the GP talked about, ticking your Vial up to four mana for [card]Master of Waves[/card] can sometimes leave you with a turn where it’s on three mana and it doesn’t do anything. The singleton Kira is a concession to that. With this card, we have seven three-drops that we can drop into play.

2 [card]Master of Waves[/card]

I don’t understand lists that play this as a four-of. It’s a good card, but there are a bunch of matchups where it’s completely irrelevant. You are happy drawing one Master in most matchups to close out the game, but you definitely don’t want to put yourself in a position where you see two of these in the first three turns of the game. How miserable is it to play against [card]Splinter Twin[/card] and see a Master in your first draw step? Two in the main and another in the board for Jund or other midrange decks is where I want to be.

2 [card]Spreading Seas[/card]

I know a lot of people run this as a four-of, and I can’t blame them. If Tron were more prevalent in my area, I could see myself doing that. But to me, this is another card you’re happy seeing one of in a game but don’t always need. It’s too good to not play, but most of the time I’d rather play more dudes in the place of Seas.

0 Two-Mana Counters

I’ve been saying since day one of Modern that [card]Remand[/card] is not where you want to be with Merfolk, and it’s nice to see that people are finally coming around.

Cards like [card]Remand[/card] or [card]Mana Leak[/card] are awesome in Magical Christmasland where you have a turn-one [card]Aether Vial[/card] every game and then just sit back on counterspells, but that’s not how it works in the real world. A lot of the time you have to play hands without Vials, and two-mana counters are about the worst thing imaginable. You’re faced with the decision on turn two of playing a lord or holding up a counterspell, and I’m sure we’d all agree that playing the guy there is correct almost every time.

The problem is turn three. What are you going to do then? You’re either tapping out for a three-drop or playing another two-drop. That’s when Spell Pierce and Vapor Snag are at their best, because that’s the turn where you pull ahead of your opponent by stopping their play while advancing your board. [card]Remand[/card] doesn’t let you do that. You just end up sitting there with an open Island and nothing to do.

Turn four is when your [card]Remand[/card]s would theoretically become good, except that we’re playing a 20- to 21-land deck and hitting four lands by turn four is by no means guaranteed. There’s a huge number of games where you’ll still be staring at a two-drop, a [card]Remand[/card] and three lands on turn four, and you’re going to hate yourself.

So, please, save yourself the trouble and just play [card]Vapor Snag[/card] and [card]Spell Pierce[/card] instead. The one time we actually want two-mana counters is when we need a hard counter against combo decks, and that’s what a sideboard is for.

Sideboarding

As I said, this varies quite a bit, and my sideboard is by no means as tight as it could be. I love the [card]Tidebinder Mage[/card], but I used to have more and it’s probably on the way to being cut. It’s a nice card against mono-red or Pod or sometimes Jund, but it’s not really a maindeckable card and a lot of the time you have plenty of other stuff to bring in anyway. I think I’ll end up cutting it for another [card]Unified Will[/card] or [card]Spellskite[/card] or something.

I’m not going to detail every matchup, but I will note that Affinity is very difficult. You can’t really have too much hate for it. [card]Hurkyl’s Recall[/card] is obviously the best, but it can eat up a lot of slots. I started last year with [card]Steel Sabotage[/card], which a lot of people are going back to, but I’ve moved recently to [card]Annul[/card] because you can also bring it in against Splinter Twin to give yourself another one-mana counterspell. Just know that no matter what you do, Affinity is going to be tough.

[card]Relic of Progenitus[/card] is your all-star here, and I’d like to find room for a third, probably by cutting the Cage. Relic is insane against Jund, RWU, Living End, Pod, and probably several other decks I’m forgetting right now. It’s a must-include. Spreading Seas is obviously there for your Tron matchup. The rest should be pretty obvious as well.

Fear the Fish

So there you go, the long-overdue Merfolk primer by the world’s biggest fan of Fish. The deck is powerful, adaptable, affordable, and fun to play. In Modern, that’s all you can ask for, and more than you can say about most decks. It’s a great deck for anyone looking to get into the format, and it scales with the skill of the player playing the deck, since there’s way more thought than just the “turn dudes sideways” approach you may see at first glance.

Any questions, or anything I missed? Let me know!

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

P.S. [card]Cosi’s Trickster[/card] is not a real card, nor is [card]Mothdust Changeling[/card] or [card]Aquitect’s Will[/card]. Of these, the most common one people ask about is Trickster. Tell me this: if you open with a hand of [card]Aether Vial[/card] and Trickster, which one are you playing first? I don’t think there’s any way the answer isn’t Vial, but Trickster on turn two is about the most miserable thing you can do. Stick with [card]Cursecatcher[/card] and disruption at one mana and you won’t regret it.

Brainstorm Brewery #83 – Gathering of Magi

Brainstorm Brewery 0:57:31

he cast is celebrating an actual milestone—this marks this point when more episodes were recorded on GatheringMagic than not. To help celebrate, the usual gang of miscreants is joined by GatheringMagic’s Con-tent Manager and Head Honcho Adam Styborski (@the_stybs). With price spikes and new card borders to discuss, the gang gets down to business and ships you all the content you can handle in an hour without having to contact poison control about a value overdose. Whose Pick of the Week is the boldest proclamation? Whose is the most controver-sial? Who actually likes the new card border? How many awkward silences are possible? Find out the answer to all these questions and more on an episode of your favorite podcast that will have you asking, “When did Standard become fun again?” Join us for Brainstorm Brewery.

How does Adam Styborski feel about the Commander decks?
Someone likes the new card borders. Can you guess who?
Are the new card borders necessary? Perhaps so, with convincing Chinese counterfeits spotted.
Is the Magic Online community toxic? How have other games fixed their toxic communities?
Pick of the Week is contentious this week. Find out how.
What do we have to look forward to from Born of the Gods?
Stybs talks a bit about himself and his Magic career so far.
What was the deal with Genesis Wave?
If you are artistically inclined, the best Photoshop or alteration of either the video of Corbin hitting the light pole or a still frame from it wins a prize. Send entries to brainstormbrew at gmail dot com. We will extend the contest a little bit longer. Please enter.
Want to be part of the Brainstorm Brewery Team? If you can write, stream, or Photoshop, or if you have a keen eye for design, contact altjason17 at gmail dot com to find out how you can join the fastest-growing brand in Magic.

Cabe Riseau produced the intro and outro music for Brainstorm Brewery.

Contact Us

Brainstorm Brewery – website – email – twitter – facebook

Ryan Bushard – email – twitter – facebook – gatheringmagic.com

Corbin Hosler – email – twitter – facebook – quitespeculation.com

Jason E Alt – email – twitter – facebook – gatheringmagic.com – quitespeculation.com

Marcel – email – twitter – facebook

Investing 203: Marcel vs. Jason, Round 1

Jason Alt

“William has already made us $15k. Cool, you want me to break something else?”

“Do you think it will work? It would take a miracle.”

“When will then be now? Soon!”

Timing is everything in investing. The difference between making 100% and losing 50% can be as little as 24 hours. Being in the right place at the right time can mean selling an Elspeth for $40 because the tournament is starting in 20 minutes.

Marcel is involved in MTG finance mainly on MTGO. This gives him some extra benefits because he can buy and sell quickly. However, he is also limited because he can’t click over to TCGplayer and buy 30 copies of a near-mint mythic. Jason is able to flip his wares quickly, too, but because he buys and sell at events. Jason also runs his MTG business so that he can be in tune with what his potential clients will want. This is necessary in order to not be sitting on a stack of worthless cardboard at rotation. Profit per trade means more trades (or volume) is key.

This first round, we will compare Marcel and Jason from the period starting November 1, 2012, going through April 30th, 2012. During this time, each individual made a different number of calls. As before, we are going to pretend like you went out and spent $100 on each and every card they said buy, and by coincidence you sold exactly $100 worth of every card they said to sell (if you are spazzing about the math here please read Investing 201). Then we’ll divide the profits by the number of trades.

Let’s start with the short-term results:

Marcel’s average return 30 days after his calls:
8.4% profit per trade

Jason’s average return 30 days after his calls:
27.6% profit per trade

Based on these short-term results, you might think that Marcel should stick to smooth jazz radio stations. But don’t turn on the Kenny G just yet. Marcel’s picks are meant for longer terms and are low-risk specs. This way, he doesn’t have to micromanage his portfolio. Jason, on the other hand, pays the bills on turning cards quickly. Making 27.6% on one’s investments per month will pay a lot of bills.

Despite a large variance in returns, they actually have similar prediction ratios:

Marcel correctly called the direction of a cards price 37.5% of the time.

Jason correctly predicted the direction of a card price 40% of the time.

Some Examples

Here are some examples of buy recommendations to show why the returns are so different (all price changes are the prices 30 days after the call):

Marcel:

[card]Birthing Pod[/card] (MTGO): $2 –> $4. (100% profit)
[card]Underworld Connections[/card] (MTGO): $0.40 –> $0.40 (0% profit)
[card]Lilliana of the Veil[/card] (MTGO): $35 –> $40. (14% profit)

Jason:

[card]Invisible Stalker[/card]: price $1.50 –> $3.50 (133% profit)
[card]Spellskite[/card]: $3.50 –> $10.00 (185.71% profits)
[card]Obzedat, Ghost Council[/card]: $25.00 –> $15.00 (-40% losses)

So far, Jason’s short-term business approach for his calls is beating Marcel’s slow-and-steady approach. Lets take at look at the percentages at rotation. Remember that we are looking at a period starting in November 2012 to April 2013, so all picks were at least six months old upon the release of Theros.

Marcel’s returns on picks through rotation:
79% profit per trade.
Correct buy/sell calls: 56.25% of the time

Jason’s returns on picks through rotation:
1.6% profit per trade
Correct buy/sell calls: 36% of the time

Wait, what? What happened?

A very high 78% of Jason’s picks peaked shortly after he called them, but they all dropped by rotation. Marcel’s picks, on the other hand, rose steadily. He did hit 500% profit on his [card]Counterflux[/card] call (starting price of $0.05), but even if we remove that one, he still earned an average of 48.7% per trade.

Here are some examples of cards Marcel and Jason called, their prices 30 days later, and their prices at rotation.

Marcel:

[card]Craterhoof Behemoth[/card] (sell recommendation): price, $18 –> 30 days later, $12 (33% value preserved) –> price at rotation, $5 (72% value saved).

[card]Liliana of the Veil[/card] (buy recommendation): price, $35 –> price at rotation, $55 (57% profit).

[card]Mutilate [/card] (buy recommendation): price, $2 –> 30 days later, $3 –> price at rotation, $4 (100% profit).

Jason:

[card]Invisible Stalker[/card] (buy recommendation): price, $1.50 –> 30 days later, $3.50 (133% profit) –> at rotation, $1 (-33% loss).

[card]Rhox Faithmender[/card] (buy recommendation): price, $1 –> 30 days later, $3.50 (250% profit) –> at rotation, $0.50 (50% loss).

[card]Chalice of the Void[/card] (buy recommendation): price, $9 –> 30 days later, $10 (11% profits) –> at rotation, $4 (-55% loss).

Conclusion

Marcel is a classic Alex-profile investor. His picks seem to favor low-risk, long-term growth. Though he makes fewer sell calls, he’s a buy-and-hold investor, not a buy-and-forget guy. Jason, on he other hand, is almost single-handedly building the Gordon psychographic from scratch. If you want to flip short-term specs, Jason seems to have it down. His picks turn fast, so “leave the last 10% for the next guy.” While an Alex type will advise you with less risk and more upside, a Gordon will get bored waiting for results.

Join me next time when we watch two more Brew Crew members face off!

-Brian Dale

Debunking Foils

Jeff Greenberg

That’s right, I’m that guy.

Every Magic community has at least one. We generally lurk in your local game shop a few nights a week, poring over the same binders as weeks go by, hoping to glean just one glance of blinding salvation to make up for the piles and piles of nonsense we flip through for hours. We’re the first in line at midnight as soon as the singles are sorted, counting down the hours until we can hand our hard-earned cash over. We want first dibs.

We want the foils. And we’ll do whatever it takes to get them.

My name is Jeff Greenberg and I was born and raised in Toronto, Canada. When I was eight years old, I walked into my local Blockbuster Video and bought an Urza’s Saga pack for $2.50. The rare? A [card]Gaea’s Cradle[/card], which I promptly sold to my LGS about a year later for $18 without regret. My game has gone in many different directions since that moment. Like many others, I found myself annoyed by the persistence of Affinity and stopped playing during Fifth Dawn, where I picked up another TCG briefly before returning to Magic in my university years. Ever since that first booster, I have wandered the great white north in search of binders to peruse and cards to acquire. I constantly listen to podcasts (especially Brainstorm Brewery), read articles, and follow the trends of the Magic secondary market. I spend countless hours at GPs and PTQs where, instead of playing in the main or side events, I scurry to and fro across the venue to try and acquire every single thing that sparks my interest, either for myself or a trading partner. As a community builder in my professional life, I constantly work to make people happy and comfortable, and trading is no different – if both parties leave unhappy and unappeased, I haven’t appropriately done my job as a Magic financier.

In this article series, I’d like to open your eyes to a different side of Magic finance: foil (AKA premium) cards.

Foils have always occupied an interesting position in the Magic secondary market. Since their first printing in Urza’s Destiny, foils have been printed in parallel with every expansion set release. While much discussion and debate exists internet-wide, foils seem to, on average, be opened in around 18-20% of Magic packs (source: WotC discussion forums). This means that, in a booster box, one can expect to open between six and eight total foils.

Contrary to urban Magic myth, however, foil cards have a print run that can be determined in the same fashion (mapping) that some Magicians use to cheat the system. Personally, I have never needed to rely on mapping to find success and make solid investments. If you are the kind of person that would prefer to randomly crack packs looking for secrets according to the foil print run, my articles are not for you. I much prefer to focus on the person rather than the printer, and that will be emphasized in further writings.

Thankfully, it is herein where we find the most interesting aspect of the foils market: valuation. For those that are less than financially literate, valuation can be defined as an estimation of the the approximate value of an asset as carried out by a professional appraiser. While we are not professionals, accurate and honest valuation of assets can make or break you as an investor in the eyes of your potential trading partners. This takes knowledge of some simple economic terms and, more importantly, knowledge of the tools available to get you and your partner the information you need to both leave your trade happy.

In the future, I hope to cover all of these different concepts in enough detail to allow you to use your resources most effectively in the foil market. For now, let’s take a look at a real-world example where some typical trends in the foil market can be seen. For this, we need a staple card that has been around for a long time. I’ll pick one of my favorites: [card]Pernicious Deed[/card].

Here is the current MTG Report for the non-foil copy:

As we can see from the longview graph above, the non-foil version of this card has not been this low at any point during the last two years. Let’s take a look at the current prices from the online dealers with foil stock available:

StarCityGames.com – NM sold out at $69.99, four copies at LP-HP, between $59.99-64.99.

eBay.com – Last three sales between $66.00-69.00. Current auctions for EX/LP copies range between $42.00-60.00.

StrikeZone Online – sold out weeks ago (Dec. 1) at $60.99.

As with many other legacy gems, Deed has been immortalized in foil as a (notably hideous) judge promotional foil)—this adds to the supply and the price of the judge foil must be considered in this discussion:

StarCityGames.com – NM sold out at $59.99, one MP copy in stock at $49.99.

eBay.com – Last three sales between $45.00-70.00, current auctions for NM copies list for between $60.00-72.00.

ChannelFireball.com – one NM copy available at $56.99.

Looking at this information, people may be tempted to keep things simple—an old foil with low distribution without a true reprint is obviously going to be worth a pretty penny, but why invest now? Mostly, the problem here isn’t the investment, it’s that the majority of traders cannot understand or manipulate the foil market. Many traders will look through a binder and naturally dismiss foils as being too expensive, while others cannot see themselves able to ship their foils at good value without dealing with a vendor and taking a hit. Either way, both traders are missing opportunities.

So why is any foil Deed worth the investment? This query brings us to another myth that needs debunking—foil cards are analogous to their non-foil counterparts. While this seems blatantly obvious, with older cards like Deed, it isn’t so easy to see and many people disregard this. The foil here sits at nearly five times the value of the non-foil, mostly due to its rarity, as well as a lack of further distribution after the judge foil in 2006. However, this doesn’t mean it wouldn’t see a further spike if it were deemed playable in a higher-tier deck. Such a situation would allow for some real profit (> $100).

Thus, it is reasonable to see the foil as a fairly safe investment for the time being, and even a strong buy if people start jumping on non-foil versions. Despite the deep preference of most players for the original art, this trend would follow for both foil versions. Promotional foils, however, often have their own distribution issues to deal with, making them some of the more interesting foil investments—but that is a discussion for a different day.

Thanks for reading, and I hope you’ve learned something!

Jeff Greenberg
@Cassarek
[email protected]

La Choix de la Semaine – Jan. 16, 2014
(Pick of the Week, for the upper class)

Don’t laugh, but it’s [card]Pernicious Deed[/card], but the non-foil version. At an internet average of just over $13.00, it is at its lowest price at any point in the last 105 weeks. I predict a jump in Legacy play as people discover how effective it can be at beating the eponymous two-card combo of [card]True-Name Nemesis[/card] and [card]Umezawa’s Jitte[/card], as well as [card]Stoneforge Mystic[/card] and [card]Delver of Secrets[/card] decks. While it is less effective against [card]Show and Tell[/card] and other combo decks, it is certainly worth more than what I would pay for a [card]Boros Reckoner[/card] online today. Strong buy.

Casually Infinite – Understanding EV, Part 1

Marc DeArmond

My editor says that articles are best at around 1500 words. My problem is that I’m a teacher. I teach sixth through twelfth grade students. In teaching we use something called the Zone of Proximal Development (ZPD) dictates what students are and are not able to learn based on what they currently know. I want to make sure that I don’t start off talking about things that are out of another person’s ZPD because they don’t have the groundwork laid to begin in a new direction. As such, many of my articles are likely to be in series of multiples, like this one.

Basic Business

Understanding estimated value (EV) is vital to pinching pennies or tickets (‡) on Magic Online. It is the most common catch-all term for Return On Investment (ROI) in MTGO. ROI is a business term that indicates how much money is made by one investment over another. If you were to stick money into a bank account, your expected ROI would be <1% per year. If you were to instead purchase a five-year CD, you could expect around 3% per year. It may be even better to spend the money than save it—something like replacing the windows in your home with higher quality windows might save you $30 per month in heating costs. When you have something that you are looking at in business terms, you have to consider what your expected ROI is for various ways to spend it. In Magic, calculating EV is how you do this.

Let’s assume you have six boosters and 4‡ (tickets) in your account. You have a number of options for what you can do. First off, you can sell the six boosters and have more tickets. This isn’t a very exciting option, since the way you probably got the boosters was by paying tickets for them in the first place. So you decide you’re going to enter a queue. But which queue you enter can drastically alter your expected results. For the sake of this article series, I’m going to assume you are likely to have average results regardless of the queue you enter. While there is a documented difference in the quality of players in 8-4 versus Swiss Drafts, and there tend to be better players in large premier events, I’m going to work under the assumption that you are in the middle of the pack for every queue you join. The reason for this is that if you’re better, most of the same advice still stands, and if you’re worse than average, you are going to lose money regardless. In this case, you should only play Swiss queues in order to minimize your losses.

I also can’t take into account the possibility that you happen to crush triple RTR drafts but happen to be really bad at M14 sealed. I’ll note that the differences from one queue to another is small enough that if there is a format you specifically don’t enjoy playing (triple DGM anyone?), it is probably not worth the advantages of playing it over a format you enjoy. Generally, as humans, we dislike things we’re bad at and enjoy things we’re good at. But three hours of your time to play Sealed over Draft when you really just want to draft isn’t worth the .32‡ it might save you. But it is important to understand how the choices you are making affect you.

The Math

If you don’t have strong math fundamentals, this may be a difficult article series for you to understand. I’d say you need a decent grasp on algebra to work through all the numbers. Unfortunately, I don’t have time to explain these fundamentals to you. If you’re having trouble grasping the math, just skip the confusing parts and move along to the results. We’ll be calculating a lot in the next article, so bear with me. If you want to skip the math, that’s okay, but today’s article is about the math specifically.

Terms

Queue EV = (What you pay to enter an event) – (what the average person gets from an event)

How exactly people calculate EV on queues varies slightly but it stands to reason you want to play the queue with the best EV and avoid those with the worst. Your EV is heavily affected by your win percentage. If you’re winning less than 50% of your matches, then a prize structure for winning a queue matters less to you and the prize structure for winning some matches will matter more. Regardless of where you stand, high EV basically means the queue is better for you, low EV means worse. However, queue EV is frequently negative. This means the average player will walk away with fewer ticets in card- and pack-value after playing a queue than they had before playing the queue. The key here is to pick the queues where you lose as little as possible, or if available, play in queues with a positive EV. Increasing your win percentage will increase your EV significantly.

Pack Cost – The market price to buy a booster pack of a given set.

The cost of purchasing a pack of a given set from a bot. Following Rule #2 (never buy packs from the store) from my article 10 Rules for Profit, we learn that the cost per pack is not $3.99 and playing a draft doesn’t cost you 14‡. Pack cost fluctuates wildly over the course of a set’s run and is even less predictable when dealing with flashback Draft formats (drafts where out-of-print formats return on MTGO). During prereleases, prices fall as people want to jump back into another queue and are more than willing to unload their draft winnings to do so. As release events finish up, prices tend to stabilize unless there ends up being a number of expensive rares in the set. Core set pack cost drops very quickly once the queues stop and the next core set comes out. The third set of a block often has a lower pack price because it is main set given as prizes but is primarily being used in block drafts, meaning more are being won than are being opened. The first set in a block will often rise in price later in the block as people go back to needing it to play full block drafts. Overall, packs can range as low as 1.25‡ all the way up to over 4‡.

Also note that there is a buy and sell pack price. You can generally sell packs for about 5% less than you can buy them. I generally use only the buy price because I rarely sell packs that I can still use to get into another queue.

Pack EV = (The value of each card in the set) / (How likely that card is to be in a single booster)

When you open a pack of Return to Ravnica, you have a chance to pull a [card]Sphinx’s Revelation[/card] worth 30‡ or a [card]Volatile Rig[/card] worth .03‡. Before the pack was opened, it had a potential value that included both of these cards. Once the pack is opened, there’s no more guessing.

The pack value can be calculated by adding up the value of all the cards in the set, adjusting for rarity, and dividing by the potential you’d see in each pack. Individual high-priced cards heavily impacts pack EV, but a number of other factors play a role as well. Currently, M14 has a very high pack EV due to [card]Mutavault[/card] being a rare instead of a set with a similarly-priced mythic like [card]Voice of Resurgence[/card] out of Dragon’s Maze. Cards like [card]Wasteland[/card] (an uncommon worth somewhere around 60‡) or even [card]Ancestral Mask[/card] (a 6‡ common) will increase the Pack EV way more than a 60‡ mythic. After all, there are 80 commons opened for every mythic.

There’s a few Excel spreadsheets with this already calculated out and all you have to do is punch in the totals for the set. If you want to know the current pack value, take a look at MagicEV, which calculates it for you (down on the bottom right). Pack EV generally ranges from about .75‡ to 1.5‡ for sets in Standard.
An example that makes a clear point about how pack value works is an unopened booster of Beta costing about $2000. There’s only one card you could open out of 117 rares that would provide you with a value that would be more than your initial cost. You could open a $5000+ [card]Black Lotus[/card] or a $6 [card]Warp Artifact[/card]. With so many rares and only 30 or so worth over $100, your pack EV is probably in the $500 range.

Pack Spread = Pack Cost – Pack EV

The difference between the pack cost and the pack EV is the pack spread. The greater the spread, the more packs you need to win to make up for your loss in opening up packs. If the spread is small enough or negative, then you can almost make a profit just by ripping packs open and selling the contents. For almost all packs on MTGO, you’ll find the pack cost is significantly above the pack value. The price for a pack doesn’t generally drop below 2‡ while there are active queues for it. In general, a 2-3‡ pack spread is common in MTGO. This means that you have to win about two packs for each three packs you open in the tournament to come out even after you pay entry fees. As I’m writing this, the pack spread on Theros is 2.23‡, M14 is 2.09‡, Modern Masters is 3.99‡, and Mercadian Masques is 1.10‡. While the high value of cards in Modern Masters makes it inviting and it has a significantly above average pack value, the pack spread is so high due to the cost of purchasing the packs. Thus, Modern Masters is one of the least profitable packs to open. You’re actually better off playing M14 or Theros.

Prize Structure

There are a number of different rewards for playing in various tournaments and queues. Sometimes the names of the event speak about the prize structure, such as 8-4 and 4-3-2-2 events, which indicate the number of packs given to each place. The reward for taking first place is significantly affected not only by the prize structure, but also the pack cost of the packs you are winning. If you win an 8-4 Draft at a 3.8‡ pack cost, you pick-up about 30.4‡ in prizes. Meanwhile, an 8-4 with a 2.8‡ pack cost will only give you about 22.4‡ in prizes.

Some events have a prize structure that rewards the players that did well significantly more than others in the tournament. Other events seek to reward everyone who performs decently, and still others reward everyone that plays and manages a win. Larger events will reward the top eight, 16, 32, or 64 players, regardless of how many enter. This could provide either a fantastic chance to a very mediocre chance of winning prizes based on the number of players. Prize structures based on number of wins are often much better than prize structures based on place, because the number of players doesn’t change your chances of winning. In an event that rewards the top 32 players, your chances of making it with 65 players is much better than with 256. On MTGO, premier events frequently have the same prize structure regardless of number of players.

Entry Fee = (Tickets) + (Pack Spread * Number of Packs)

Various events—from Draft queues, to dailies, to premier events—have entry fees. Entry fees for most events can be paid in tickets (bad idea) or a combination of some small number of tickets and product (good idea). The posted entry fee in MTGO isn’t the real entry fee you end up paying. When calculating potential winnings, you need to understand the portion of entry fees that you’re essentially paying to get into the prize structure as well as the fees you’re paying in pack spread. You end up paying the tickets, but you still get the value from the cards in the packs you open. If I have to open six packs to play in a Sealed event, I lose my pack spread six times instead of the three times I’d lose opening a draft. This means the prizes in a Sealed event would have to be almost twice as good as in a draft to have the same EV.

Next Time

Since I’ve probably already given my editor a heart attack, I’ll stop here and pick it up in part two where we’ll discuss what to do with all these numbers. This article gave you the basics regardingthe terms I’ll be using and we’ll get into the gritty details in my next article. I’ll break down each queue as well as some historic prize structures and explain why they good or bad value so you can be on the lookout for changes in the future that provide you with good opportunities.

Standard Commander: Mono-Colored Analysis

Kirsin Koch

Previously, this article series has covered the basic considerations for a Standard-only Commander card pool consisting of Return to Ravnica, Gatecrash, Dragon’s Maze, Magic 2014, and Theros. This second part will cover the eight mono-colored legendary creatures provided by Theros and their possible inclusion in mono-colored decks. These legendary creatures are a good start for exploring a Standard-only Commander format by exemplifying the best resources available to each singular color. By combining typical deck building concepts such as card advantage, mana acceleration, tutoring, and removal, interactive decks are still very possible even with a narrower card pool. All the example decks below will attempt to maximize the key themes Wizards of the Coast has implemented in each color under the New World Order design philosophy. In a Standard Commander format, do not automatically discount a mono-colored deck pilot despite his lack of color flexibility. Instead, these decks will capitalize on their steady mana bases to bring their strength to the fore.

Mono-White

[card]Heliod, God of the Sun[/card] naturally has white gravitating towards a vigilant token creature theme, but doesn’t have much in the way of cheap, non-narrow creature removal. What white does have are ways to wipe the board of creatures and start over with Heliod: [card]Angel of Serenity[/card], [card]Elspeth, Sun’s Champion[/card], [card]Luminate Primordial[/card], and [card]Planar Cleansing[/card]. A deck built around Heliod might work to get board states consisting of a populated token army with pump effects or protected by [card]Rootborn Defenses[/card] followed by a board wipe. Alternatively, [card]Gideon, Champion of Justice[/card] is a semi-indestructible threat that continually gets larger. White also has access to an inordinate amount of life gain. By buffing the player’s life total, a [card]Heliod, God of the Sun[/card] deck can recover from an opponent’s board wipe and have enough life buffer to rebuild its army. Such a deck might look like this:

[deck title=Heliod Commander]
[Creature token generators:]
*1 Precinct Captain
*1 Heliod, God of the Sun
*1 Evangel of Heliod
*1 Scion of Vitu-Ghazi
*1 Urbis Protector
*1 Angelic Accord
*1 Murder Investigation
*1 Rootborn Defenses
*1 Elspeth, Sun’s Champion
*1 Devout Invocation
*1 Strionic Resonator
*1 Trading Post
*1 Akroan Horse
[/Creature token generators:]

[Creature buffs:]
*1 Frontline Medic
*1 Phantom General
*1 Archangel of Thune
*1 Angelic Skirmisher
*1 Path of Bravery
*1 Spear of Heliod
*1 Fortify
*1 Ajani, Caller of the Pride
*1 Righteous Charge
*1 Haunted Plate Mail
[/Creature buffs:]

[Creature removal:]
*1 Banisher Priest
*1 Court Street Denizen
*1 Haazda Snare Squad
*1 Master of Diversion
*1 Heliod’s Emissary
*1 Martial Law
*1 Pacifism
*1 Divine Verdict
*1 Trostani’s Judgment
*1 Gideon, Champion of Justice
*1 Angelic Edict
*1 Vanquish the Foul
[/Creature removal:]

[Board wipes:]
*1 Angel of Serenity
*1 Luminate Primordial
*1 Planar Cleansing
*1 Ratchet Bomb
*1 Volatile Rig
[/Board wipes:]

[General removal:]
*1 Soul Tithe
*1 Renounce the Guilds
[/General removal:]

[Enchantment removal:]
*1 Keening Apparition
*1 Ray of Dissolution
*1 Solemn Offering
[/Enchantment removal:]

[Graveyard hate:]
*1 Rest in Peace
[/Graveyard hate:]

[Control:]
*1 Pithing Needle
[/Control:]

[Life gain:]
*1 Soldier of the Pantheon
*1 Dawnstrike Paladin
*1 Riot Control
*1 Congregate
*1 Elixir of Immortality
*1 Bubbling Cauldron
*1 Staff of the Sun Magus
[/Life gain:]

[Recursion:]
*1 Codex Shredder
*1 Illusionist’s Bracers
[/Recursion:]

[Tutor:]
*1 Traveler’s Amulet
*1 Ring of Three Wishes
[/Tutor:]

[Mana acceleration:]
*1 Chromatic Lantern
*1 Darksteel Ingot
*1 Burnished Hart
[/Mana acceleration:]

[Lands:]
*1 Encroaching Wastes
*1 Mutavault
*1 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
36 Plains
*1 Rogue’s Passage
[/Lands:]
[/deck]

This deck may also want [card]Fiendslayer Paladin[/card] as an early threat with life gain and semi-protection. However, it can be a dead draw later in the game given a lack of synergy with the token theme and without a variety of efficient equipment normally available to white to increase its combat survivability. [card]Riot Gear[/card] may also be something that a Heliod player might want to consider because it pumps a creature out of first strike damage range and can be moved around after combat. +1/+2 on any key creature may be enough to keep it on the table and be a continued threat in many scenarios. Lastly, [card]Vial of Poison[/card] has potential to combo with [card]Trading Post[/card] and the token theme of the deck.

Mono-Blue

[card]Thassa, God of the Sea[/card] easily fills the expected classic blue control, draw-go build despite the focus of the color in Standard on milling a single opponent. A blue Thassa deck will be able to draw into more answers consistently than other mono-colored decks and lay down singular threats while simultaneously protecting them. The downside of blue is going to be lack of multiple large threats to quickly eliminate opponents. The blue player will possibly need to lean heavily on the social contract and deal-making to avoid being stereotypically eliminated first before attempting to take control and win the game. Playing a kingmaker role to remain in second place and waiting to bounce the entire board with a well-timed [card]Ætherize[/card] or [card]Cyclonic Rift[/card] may be a heavily-treaded strategy used by this deck’s pilot.

[deck title=Thassa Commander]
[Creatures:]
*1 Clone
*1 Master of Waves
*1 AEtherling
*1 Stolen Identity
*1 Trading Post
*1 Haunted Plate Mail
[/Creatures:]

[Card draw:]
*1 Scroll Thief
*1 Stealer of Secrets
*1 Thassa, God of the Sea
*1 Thassa’s Emissary
*1 Messenger Drake
*1 Prescient Chimera
*1 Prognostic Sphinx
*1 Horizon Scholar
*1 Windreader Sphinx
*1 Bident of Thassa
*1 Divination
*1 Inspiration
*1 Opportunity
*1 Jace, Architect of Thought
*1 Jace, Memory Adept
*1 Thassa’s Bounty
[/Card draw:]

[Counterspells:]
*1 Annul
*1 Mizzium Skin
*1 Spell Blast
*1 Swan Song
*1 Essence Scatter
*1 Negate
*1 Cancel
*1 Dissolve
*1 Scatter Arc
[/Counterspells:]

[Board wipe:]
*1 Shipbreaker Kraken
*1 Cyclonic Rift
*1 AEtherize
*1 Curse of Swine
*1 Ratchet Bomb
[/Board wipe:]

[Creature removal/bounce:]
*1 Tidebinder Mage
*1 Voidwielder
*1 Colossal Whale
*1 Blustersquall
*1 Gridlock
*1 Rapid Hybridization
*1 Griptide
*1 Voyage’s End
*1 Inaction Injunction
*1 Vial of Poison
[/Creature removal/bounce:]

[Bounce permanent:]
*1 Disperse
*1 Totally Lost
[/Bounce permanent:]

[Recursion:]
*1 Meletis Charlatan
*1 Archaeomancer
*1 Elite Arcanist
*1 Mnemonic Wall
*1 Jace’s Mindseeker
*1 Diluvian Primordial
*1 Strionic Resonator
[/Recursion:]

[Tutors:]
*1 Traveler’s Amulet
*1 Ring of Three Wishes
[/Tutors:]

[Mana acceleration:]
*1 Chromatic Lantern
*1 Darksteel Ingot
*1 Burnished Hart
[/Mana acceleration:]

[Lands:]
*1 Encroaching Wastes
36 Island
*1 Mutavault
*1 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
*1 Rogue’s Passage
[/Lands:]
[/deck]

[card]Annul[/card] may seem an odd counterspell inclusion, but it has real strength as one of the singular ways to preemptively deal with the Theros Gods. [card]Clone[/card] is a card that will have tremendous power in this type of environment given it’s flexibility and very reasonable casting cost. For Johnny-type players, [card]Conjured Currency[/card] may be a card to consider. It’s a very slow [card]Switcheroo[/card] that can create some unexpected, possibly advantageous board states as it makes its way around the table. Additionally, the possibility of taking control of key god creatures is one of blue’s limited ways to deal with the troublesome permanents.

Mono-Black

A mono-black Commander deck has two options for its general, but a deck lead by [card]Erebos, God of the Dead[/card] has a strong draw engine that will compare with Standard Commander [card]Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius[/card] or [card]Prime Speaker Zegana[/card] decks with the added benefit of a low casting cost and indestructibility. Despite black’s inability to deal with non-creature permanents, black has some strong synergies and has potential to hold its own against the dual-colored decks possible in a current Standard card pool. Black also has a Johnny player’s type of deck when combining [card]Shadowborn Apostle[/card] with [card]Abhorrent Overlord[/card], [card]Desecration Demon[/card], [card]Lord of the Void[/card], and [card]Shadowborn Demon[/card].

[deck title=Erebos Commander]
[Creatures:]
*1 Tenacious Dead
*1 Thrull Parasite
*1 Pack Rat
*1 Wight of Precinct Six
*1 Lifebane Zombie
*1 Mogis’s Marauder
*1 Nighthowler
*1 Desecration Demon
*1 Returned Centaur
*1 Necropolis Regent
*1 Nightmare
*1 Pontiff of Blight
*1 Lord of the Void
[/Creatures:]

[Creature token generation:]
*1 Xathrid Necromancer
*1 Liliana’s Reaver
*1 Ogre Slumlord
[/Creature token generation:]

[Card draw:]
*1 Blood Scrivener
*1 Erebos, God of the Dead
*1 Dark Prophecy
*1 Underworld Connections
*1 Liliana of the Dark Realms
*1 Read the Bones
*1 March of the Returned
[/Card draw:]

[Sacrifice outlet:]
*1 Gnawing Zombie
*1 Vampire Warlord
*1 Abhorrent Overlord
*1 Altar’s Reap
*1 Rescue from the Underworld
*1 Bubbling Cauldron
[/Sacrifice outlet:]

[Creature removal:]
*1 Festering Newt
*1 Slum Reaper
*1 Keepsake Gorgon
*1 Shadowborn Demon
*1 Quag Sickness
*1 Devour Flesh
*1 Doom Blade
*1 Ultimate Price
*1 Hero’s Downfall
*1 Grisly Spectacle
*1 Launch Party
*1 Liturgy of Blood
*1 Corrupt
[/Creature removal:]

[Board wipe:]
*1 Hythonia the Cruel
*1 Ratchet Bomb
[/Board wipe:]

[Recursion:]
*1 Corpse Hauler
*1 Sepulchral Primordial
*1 Whip of Erebos
*1 Grave Betrayal
*1 Grim Return
*1 Rise of the Dark Realms
[/Recursion:]

[Graveyard hate:]
*1 Cremate
*1 Vile Rebirth
*1 Crypt Incursion
[/Graveyard hate:]

[Life gain:]
*1 Gray Merchant of Asphodel
[/Life gain:]

[Mana acceleration:]
*1 Crypt Ghast
*1 Darksteel Ingot
*1 Burnished Hart
[/Mana acceleration:]

[Tutors:]
*1 Diabolic Tutor
*1 Traveler’s Amulet
*1 Ring of Three Wishes
[/Tutors:]

[Lands:]
*1 Encroaching Wastes
*1 Mutavault
*1 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
*1 Rogue’s Passage
36 Swamp
[/Lands:]
[/deck]

Mono-Red

[card]Purphoros, God of the Forge[/card] obviously needs to have multiple creatures come into play as often as possible to utilize its trigger. Unfortunately, a Standard Commander deck has limited options to make tokens repeatedly or en masse: [card]Goblin Rally[/card], [card]Hammer of Purphoros[/card], [card]Molten Birth[/card], [card]Utvara Hellkite[/card], [card]Young Pyromancer[/card], [card]Akroan Horse[/card], and [card]Trading Post[/card]. Given the small amount of feasible red instants and sorceries in Standard for Commander, [card]Young Pyromancer[/card] and [card]Molten Birth[/card] really fail to fit in this deck.

An idea to work with this limitation is to explore additional themes unexpectedly found in red Standard Commander: Cheating large creatures into play and playing all the dragons available with [card]Utvara Hellkite[/card]. Red has the ability to cheat creatures into play with [card]Guild Feud[/card] and [card]Possibility Storm[/card]. The important detail about Guild Feud is, “If no creatures or only one creature is put onto the battlefield this way, no fight happens.” Unfortunately, with only 25 creatures in the deck, this is a risky deckbuilding strategy, but will appeal to Johnny-type Magic players. (There is a finite number of red or artifact creatures in Standard currently with both high power and toughness with which to utilize with [card]Guild Feud[/card].) Accelerating straight into a [card]Furnace Whelp[/card] from a [card]Dragon Egg[/card] is fun too. [card]Possibility Storm[/card] acts as a secondary and even perhaps better alternative to [card]Guild Feud[/card]. The difference between the two is that [card]Guild Feud[/card] allows you to consider trying minor group politics while [card]Possibility Storm[/card] risks accelerating your opponents far beyond your own board state.

Second, if a Purphoros player can land an unanswered [card]Utvara Hellkite[/card], it can quickly take over a battlefield within a few turns. [card]Hellkite Tyrant[/card] offers another way to cheat large threats onto the table by stealing key artifact acceleration with the side benefit of taking away opponents’ Theros artifact enchantments. [card]Hellkite Tyrant[/card] will probably never win Purphoros the game, but has potential for serious card advantage with permanent theft of opponent’s resources.

Humorously, [card]Guild Feud[/card] works on a very Vorthos level to demonstrate red’s attempt at politics: “You’re in the lead and you want a put a creature into play? Fine, I’ll try to kill it and you’ve milled three cards. Hey, look! My guy is meaner than yours too!” This is also aided by [card]Akroan Horse[/card]: “Give that weaker player over there a blocker. I get an army for doing so? Imagine that…” Just don’t attack the [card]Akroan Horse[/card]’s controller with a [card]Hellkite Tyrant[/card].

[deck title=Purphoros Commander]
[Creatures:]
*1 Fanatic of Mogis
*1 Ill-Tempered Cyclops
*1 Stoneshock Giant
*1 Wrecking Ogre
*1 Chaos Imps
*1 Ripscale Predator
*1 Guardian of the Ages
*1 Colossus of Akros
[/Creatures:]

[Dragons:]
*1 Dragon Egg
*1 Scourge of Valkas
*1 Stormbreath Dragon
*1 Hellkite Tyrant
*1 Shivan Dragon
*1 Utvara Hellkite
[/Dragons:]

[Token creature generation:]
*1 Goblin Rally
*1 Trading Post
*1 Akroan Horse
[/Token creature generation:]

[Creature buff:]
*1 Legion Loyalist
*1 Pyrewild Shaman
*1 Purphoros, God of the Forge
*1 Ogre Battledriver
*1 Hammer of Purphoros
*1 Skyblinder Staff
*1 Fireshrieker
*1 Fleetfeather Sandals
*1 Prowler’s Helm
*1 Riot Gear
[/Creature buff :]

[Sacrifice outlet:]
*1 Barrage of Expendables
*1 Bubbling Cauldron
[/Sacrifice outlet:]

[Card draw:]
*1 Dragon Mantle
*1 Chandra, Pyromaster
*1 Wild Guess
[/Card draw:]

[Creature removal:]
*1 Fleshpulper Giant
*1 Molten Primordial
*1 Five-Alarm Fire
*1 Ordeal of Purphoros
*1 Volcanic Geyser
*1 Vial of Poison
*1 Rod of Ruin
[/Creature removal:]

[Land destruction:]
*1 Ember Swallower
[/Land destruction:]

[Artifact removal:]
*1 Batterhorn
*1 Wild Celebrants
*1 Vandalblast
[/Artifact removal:]

[Board wipe:]
*1 Street Spasm
*1 Homing Lightning
*1 Mizzium Mortars
*1 Anger of the Gods
*1 Ratchet Bomb
*1 Volatile Rig
[/Board wipe:]

[Recursion:]
*1 Codex Shredder
*1 Strionic Resonator
*1 Trading Post
[/Recursion:]

[Control:]
*1 Pithing Needle
[/Control:]

[Mana acceleration:]
*1 Guild Feud
*1 Chromatic Lantern
*1 Darksteel Ingot
*1 Burnished Hart
*1 Opaline Unicorn
[/Mana acceleration:]

[Tutor:]
*1 Traveler’s Amulet
*1 Ring of Three Wishes
[/Tutor:]

[Lands:]
*1 Encroaching Wastes
36 Mountain
*1 Mutavault
*1 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
*1 Rogue’s Passage
[/Lands:]
[/deck]

Mono-Green

[card]Anthousa, Setessan Hero[/card], [card]Nylea, God of the Hunt[/card], or [card]Polukranos, World Eater[/card], despite having access to almost all of the mana acceleration available in Standard, will all have a very difficult time facing off against other Commander decks. The color has extremely limited and narrow card draw, few board wipes with limited effectiveness, and minimal fight-based creature removal. Additionally, Anthousa requires a deck built around the Heroic mechanic, but without recursive spells. This makes her a poor choice. Nylea herself does not have trample and is considered by eternal Commander players to be a less effective [card]Kamahl, Fist of Krosa[/card]. Polukranos provides some effective removal with its cheap cost, but that benefit will dwindle over time as its command zone cost continually rises with multiple deaths. Timmy-type Magic players could possibly be interested in this archetype for a while due to its potentially large creatures, but it lacks resiliency and will frequently get stuck in topdeck mode. Eternal mono-green players may find this color to be a little frustrating to play.

[deck title=Nylea Commander]
[Creatures:]
*1 Arbor Colossus
*1 Giant Adephage
*1 Howl of the Night Pack
*1 Kalonian Hydra
*1 Miming Slime
*1 Mistcutter Hydra
*1 Nemesis of Mortals
*1 Sporemound
*1 Colossus of Akros
*1 Haunted Plate Mail
[/Creatures:]

[Creature buff:]
*1 Boon Satyr
*1 Bow of Nylea
*1 Crowned Ceratok
*1 Death’s Presence
*1 Ivy Lane Denizen
*1 Nylea, God of the Hunt
*1 Oak Street Innkeeper
*1 Primeval Bounty
*1 Wild Beastmaster
*1 Fireshrieker
[/Creature buff:]

[Card draw:]
*1 Garruk’s Horde
*1 Nylea’s Presence
*1 Warriors’ Lesson
*1 Garruk, Caller of Beasts
*1 Witches’ Eye
[/Card draw:]

[Creature removal:]
*1 Deadly Recluse
*1 Polukranos, World Eater
*1 Time to Feed
*1 Hunt the Weak
*1 Vial of Poison
[/Creature removal:]

[Noncreature removal:]
*1 Rust Scarab
*1 Sylvan Primordial
*1 Naturalize
*1 Artisan’s Sorrow
*1 Fade into Antiquity
*1 Bramblecrush
[/Noncreature removal:]

[Board wipe:]
*1 Windstorm
*1 Ratchet Bomb
*1 Volatile Rig
[/Board wipe:]

[Graveyard hate:]
*1 Scavenging Ooze
*1 Serene Remembrance
[/Graveyard hate:]

[Control:]
*1 Pithing Needle
[/Control:]

[Life gain:]
*1 Nylea’s Disciple
*1 Bubbling Cauldron
*1 Staff of the Wild Magus
[/Life gain:]

[Mana acceleration:]
*1 Elvish Mystic
*1 Gyre Sage
*1 Voyaging Satyr
*1 Karametra’s Acolyte
*1 Into the Wilds
*1 Ordeal of Nylea
*1 Burnished Hart
[/Mana acceleration:]

[Recursion:]
*1 Wildwood Rebirth
*1 Codex Shredder
*1 Elixir of Immortality
*1 Strionic Resonator
*1 Illusionist’s Bracers
[/Recursion:]

[Tutors:]
*1 Gatecreeper Vine
*1 Lay of the Land
*1 Seek the Horizon
*1 Traveler’s Amulet
*1 Ring of Three Wishes
[/Tutors:]

[Lands:]
*1 Encroaching Wastes
34 Forest
*1 Mutavault
*1 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
*1 Rogue’s Passage
[/Lands:]
[/deck]

With this deck, Nylea is the optimal commander and the cards work together to capitalize on making large creatures with trample. The Nylea player should be careful about overextending into removal and may want to help the table keep the focus on another threat by actually holding back attacking frequently. When the opportunity arises to hit the player that everyone fears the most, the green player will swing with an impressive force. As always, the green player will need to hold removal spells to remove key flyers found in blue and enable trample as frequently as possible to deal with tokens and pump effects.

Mono-Colored Summary

With a single commander (except for black) and a limited card pool available for mono-colored decks, a Standard Commander deck may appear obvious for optimized builds when compared to guild-colored decks. Mono-colored deck builders will have to trade a set of color weaknesses for a consistent mana base and a potentially more dedicated theme.

This format will no doubt be exciting. Each color on its own appears to have deckbuilding highlights that can be fresh, interactive, and interesting to play in a multiplayer game with red players possibly having the most fun. The red players trying the build found in this article are going to be most likely to understand the Joker metaphor presented in one of Adam Styborski’s articles: “Just shooting Batman holds no appeal for the Joker. He must die by a laser mounted on the moon instead.” Those specific games will be memorable long after the Return to Ravnica/Gatecrash/Dragon’s Maze/Magic 2014/Theros Standard Commander card pool has rotated out and faded away.

Post Modern

Enmou Gao

I love Modern because of all the value.

Even though Modern is a format where everything is subject to reprint, in addition to the likely release of more Modern Masters sets, the prices of staples are still low. In the year 2013, [card]Splinter Twin[/card] doubled in the U.S. shortly after doubling in Europe; [card]Chord of Calling[/card], [card]Fulminator Mage[/card], and [card]Horizon Canopy[/card] all more than doubled due not being reprinted; and novel new competitors like [card]Disrupting Shoal[/card] quintupled overnight.

Even fringe cards like [card]Threads of Disloyalty[/card] and [card]Restore Balance[/card] saw a bump just because it’s Modern and it’ll see more and more players as the format becomes more popular. [card]Threads of Disloyalty[/card] jumped 50% just because it was seeing play in two tier-one decks, and [card]Restore Balance[/card] is up 200% since six months ago, even though it sees close to zero competitive play outside of popping up in dailies every now and then.

For Magic financiers, it’s a good idea to play Modern, just like it is to play EDH, another eternal format that has a lot of room for speculation. The value proposition for playing the format is there. If a card has already been hit by a reprint in Modern Masters, you can only expect the value to go up from here. While Legacy has more stability, Modern has more spikes in value due to price corrections. Staying up to date about the Modern meta-game will give you a huge leg up to get to the spikes before the news goes around.

Modern tournaments are also heating up. Grand Prix Antswerp marked the biggest Modern Grand Prix to date with 1601 players, a respectable number even compared to other formats. Being that Modern is an eternal format with cards that don’t rotate, we can only expect the growth rate to accelerate going forward. As players jump on the bandwagon, more and more players will want in on the ride. And unlike Legacy, Modern is a pro tour format, which means that even if Star City Games can ignore the format for the time being, it can’t ignore it forever.

Post Modern: Banned List

Being that we’re getting closer to banned list announcements, I thought I’d take a minute to talk about the topic. It seems to always create controversy no matter what circle I’m in. Wizards of the Coast has more or less consistently banned/unbanned a card in Modern every six months or so, and we’re due for another change in the format.

Originally, I intended to list all the cards that will stay on the banned list no matter what, but the list is so long that it would likely take up the whole article. The banned list is unnecessarily long so that Modern would be protected as a new format, but that gives it space for cards to be unbanned (see [card]Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle[/card]). Let’s talk about other cards that can (and should?) be unbanned.

[card]Ancestral Vision[/card]

Modern doesn’t have any good cascade cards now that [card]Bloodbraid Elf[/card] is banned. The [card]Shardless Agent[/card] following a [card]Brainstorm[/card] into [card]Ancestral Vision[/card] wombo combo doesn’t exist in Modern. Control in Modern is severely lacking, and UWR Control is currently on its knees due to having bad matchups against all of the tier-one Modern decks except Affinity. Recently, UWR has turned into more of a midrange deck. It runs a variety of creatures because there aren’t enough good cards to make a pure control strategy viable. [card]Ancestral Vision[/card] may be a powerful card, but it doesn’t win the game on its own and it tends to be a dead draw later in the game. It’s also quite slow, because that the earliest it can go off is turn five, while Modern is a turn-four format.

[card]Dread Return[/card]

Call me crazy, but I can see the argument for [card]Dread Return[/card] being unbanned to really shake up the format. Dredge is non-existent in Modern, in part because [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] is one of the most-played creatures in the format. Three creatures is a lot to sacrifice, and without [card]Narcomoeba[/card] and [card]Bridge from Below[/card], it’s just not happening on a regular basis. I would love to see more variety in Modern, even if it means playing against broken decks.

[card]Golgari Grave-Troll[/card]

Speaking of Dredge, why not unban the best Dredge creature? While [card]Dread Return[/card] would be a risky unban since it enables more trippy plays, [card]Golgari Grave-Troll[/card] is the safer unban because it’s just an upgrade over the Dredge 5 alternative [card]Stinkweed Imp[/card]. I don’t see this and [card]Dread Return[/card] being unbanned at the same time, but rather one or the other. Because graveyard hate is readily available in Modern now that [card]Rest in Peace[/card], [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card], and [card]Scavenging Ooze[/card] have been introduced to the format, there are plenty of cards to keep graveyard strategies in check.

[card]Wild Nacatl[/card]

The card that I’m most stoked about the possibility of being unbanned is [card]Wild Nacatl[/card]. It would introduce a Naya Zoo archetype into Modern, an exciting alternative to the only other existing aggro deck in Modern, Affinity. [card]Wild Nacatl[/card] is a card that is strong but not broken, because like all fair creatures, it dies to [card]Lightning Bolt[/card]. The reason that it’s on the banned list is because it limits variety in aggro decks, but being that aggro in Modern is as limited as it already is, I don’t see the reason for it to stay on the banned list.

So says the man who shook up MTGO and nearly caused an apocalypse. Could this be another shift of public opinion in the making? Love or hate the guy, apparently Brian Kibler’s opinions are the only ones that matter in the realm of Magic: The Gathering.

Seriously though, it’s not the end of the world if [card]Wild Nacatl[/card] is unbanned. [card]Delver of Secrets[/card] is already a flying [card]Wild Nacatl[/card] once it flips. Are players really in danger of dying to a vanilla 3/3 when [card]Tarmogoyf[/card] is legal in the format?

On the other hand, if none of the graveyard strategies are unbanned in Modern, I can see [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] being banned. On his stream, Craig Wescoe happened to mention the possibility even though he was using [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] for his Naya Burn deck.

[card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] wrecks deck diversity in Modern. From forcing midrange to go down the BGx route to denying graveyard shenanigans in Modern, [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] is a public enemy. Let’s also not talk about the strange stalemate interaction of having [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] on both sides of the table. Not many decks in Modern can answer a turn-two [card]Liliana of the Veil[/card] or [card]Birthing Pod[/card], which is unfair since Modern lacks a good [card]Force of Will[/card] substitute. [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] is the second-most played creature in Legacy, only recently being dethroned by [card]Stoneforge Mystic[/card].

Once again at GP Prague, [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] led the BGx decks to dominate in 50% of the top 8 finishes. While t’s hard to argue that [card]Deathrite Shamanp[/card] makes BGx an overpowered strategy, it does make for Modern a stale format. On the other hand, banning [card]Deathrite SHaman[/card] would open the door for other midrange strategies like Naya, Bant, or RUG decks like Eternal Command. Because [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] demands a turn-one answer, a ban would give decks more space to have cards other than turn-one removals spells. [card]Path to Exile[/card] would get a significant bump if [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] is not in the format.

Post Modern: Disrupting Shoal

While the hype has died down on [card]Disrupting Shoal[/card], the TCGplayer mid price has stayed at $10.30 despite having zero copies in Day 2 of GP Prague. What gives?

Simply put, the Mono-Blue Ninja Bear deck is a fun deck. Here is a decklist in case you’ve missed it.

[Deck Title= Ninja Bear Delver] [Creatures] 4 Delver of Secrets 4 Phantasmal Bear 4 Snapcaster Mage 4 Ninja of the Deep Hours [/Creatures] [Spells] 4 Cryptic Command 4 Vapor Snag 4 Remand 4 Disrupting Shoal 4 Serum Visions 4 Gitaxian Probe [/Spells] [Land] 18 Island 2 Mutavault [/Land] [Sideboard] *4 Vedalken Shackles *4 Hibernation *3 Vendilion Clique *2 Hurkyl’s Recall *1 Wurmcoil Engine *1 Echoing Truth [/Sideboard] [/Deck]

How good? I think that after playtesting it for a week, I think it would be fair to say that it has the potential to be a tier-1.5 deck with more tweaking, including a splash for Red.

The deck is consistent in the sense that literally half of the deck’s draws net cards in the form of [card]Remand[/card], [card]Serum Visions[/card], [card]Gitaxian Probe[/card], [card]Ninja of the Deep Hours[/card], [card]Cryptic Command[/card], and [card]Snapcaster Mage[/card]. Promo and foil [card]Gitaxian Probes[/card] are looking good if the deck places well in upcoming GP Prague.

What about [card]Disrupting Shoal[/card]? I don’t think it’s anywhere near the power of [card]Force of Will[/card] because it’s easier to play around, but it does have a place in Modern where a simple play like turn-one [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] or turn-one [card]Expedition Map[/card] can determine the course of a game. In a format where going first is a huge deal, [card]Disrupting Shoal[/card] helps to offset the balance of the tempo gained by going first versus the card advantage by going second. If you’re still holding onto the card, I would advise you try to trade it away, but nevertheless, it’s a fun card to play.

I personally still think that the UR Delver deck that Jeff Hoogland popularized is better than the mono-blue version because it plays [card]Lightning Bolt[/card], the best card in Modern, as opposed to [card]Vapor Snag[/card], a temporary solution to permanent problems. [card]Spellstutter Sprite[/card] has really proven itself to be one of the premier cards in Modern due to its versatility in playing defensive as a control card and aggro as a threat on the table. While all the UR Delver decks that Day 2’d GP Prague were of the [card]Young Pyromancer[/card] variety, I believe that the [card]Spellstutter Sprite[/card] style has the most consistency because of the ability to counter most spells and also flash in threats.

For more talk about Modern, you can follow me on Twitter @fyawm or the MTGFinance subreddit where I post under the same name. Until then, please feel free to discuss the contents of this article in the comments below or on Reddit!

Episode Archives

Picking a Queue

What to Do With It All?

What’s the Best Queue?

Swiss vs. 8-4

Final Notes

Shifting Metagame

Splinter Twin

Phyrexian Obliterator

Genesis Wave

Birthing Pod

Summoner’s Egg

Wurmcoil Engine

Coming Out Ahead

Grixis Deck: Mind Seize

New Cards

[card]Baleful Force[/card] [C+]/[F]

[card]Diviner Spirit[/card] [D]/[F]

[card]Hooded Horror[/card] [D-]/[F]

[card]Terra Ravager[/card] [F]/[F]

[card]True-Name Nemesis[/card] [D+]/[A+]

[card]Curse of Chaos[/card] [D]/[F]

[card]Curse of Inertia[/card] [D-]/[F]

[card]Curse of Shallow Graves[/card] [C]/[A-]

[card]Eye of Doom[/card] [B-]/[F]

[card]Illusionist’s Gambit[/card] [B-]/[F]

[card]Tempt with Reflections[/card] [D]/[F]

Notable Reprints

[card]Baleful Strix[/card] [B]/[A]

[card]Decree of Pain[/card] [B+]/[C]

[card]Mirari[/card] [B]/[D+]

[card]Propaganda[/card] [A-]/[C+]

[card]Starstorm[/card] [C]/[F+]

[card]Strategic Planning[/card] [D]/[C-]

[card]Temple Bell[/card] [C]/[F]

Overall – Value: [A+] / Playability: [D]

The Methods

Can

Kit

Steep

Until Next Time

The Big Winner at the Prerelease

Mailbag #3

Mailbag #4

Traditional is the New Novelty

Okay, but Can We Go Deeper?

Accounting for Non-Drafted Packs

Azorius

Selesnya

Izzet

Rakdos

Golgari

My Trading Strategy

Story Time

Back to Priming

More Stories

The Grading System

Jund Deck: Power Hungry

New Cards:

[card]Fell Shepherd[/card] [D]/[F]

[card]Ophiomancer[/card] [B-]/[B+]

[card]Primal Vigor[/card] [A]/[D]

[card]Widespread Panic[/card] [D]/[F]

[card]Tempt with Vengeance[/card] [C]/[A]

[card]Endless Cockroaches[/card] [C-]/[D-]

[card]Hooded Horror[/card] [D-]/[F]

[card]Curse of Predation[/card] [C]/[A]

[card]Curse of Shallow Graves[/card] [C]/[A-]

[card]Curse of Chaos[/card] [D]/[F]

[card]Restore[/card] [C+]/[F]

Notable Reprints

[card]Mass Mutiny[/card] [B]/[F]

[card]Hua Tuo, Honored Physician[/card] [C]/[F]

[card]Goblin Sharpshooter[/card] [A]/[C]

[card]Goblin Bombardment[/card] [C]/[C+]

[card]Endrek Sahr, Master Breeder[/card] [B]/[D-]

[card]Fecundity[/card] [C+]/[D]

[card]Inferno Titan[/card] [B+]/[B]

Overall – Value: [B+] / Playability: [A]

What do you do for a living that pays your bills?