Investing 206: Jason vs Corbin

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Last time, we outlined the environment that these picks were made, so if you haven’t read that article, please do so here. With that out of the way, today we can start digging deeper into how each host’s choices panned out. This time around, rather than compare opposite styles, we are putting the two more aggressive Crew members head-to-head.

But first, here’s a recap of our conclusions from season one:

Jason and Corbin are almost single-handedly building the Gordon psychographic (see Investing 201) from scratch.

 Mtgfinance fights need better battle music

MTG finance fights need better battle music

Corbin’s picks tend to be more high-risk and high-reward. Timing was less important than the huge potential for a swing in value. If you prefer to flip short-term specs, however, Jason seems to have this down. His picks turned fast and furious, as he is looking at trends and requests from his customers.

Corbin’s base stats:
30-day call rate: 18 percent
Season-ending call rate: 54.5 percent
30-day average returns: 3.5 percent
Season-ending average returns: 19.9 percent

Jason’s base stats:
30-day call rate: 62.5 percent
Season-ending call rate: 56.25 percent
30-day average returns:19.3 percent
Season-ending average returns:14 percent

Jason Today

Jason starts this season with returns that are similar to his previous results. With two-thirds of his picks going up in the first 30 days, he has constantly been able to predict what cards are going to be hot in the minds of buyers. His picks then drift down through the next six months. Below are a few examples that illustrate some picks that are quintessential Jason.

Ex.
Advent of the Wurm: 30 day, +25 percent; end of season, -57 percent

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Desecration Demon: 30 day, +25 percent; end of season, -52 percent

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Boon Satyr: 30 day, +122 percent; end of season, -44 percent

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After viewing these picks, it’s a wonder Jason isn’t accused more often of manipulating the market. A counterargument could be made here too: when Jason picks a card, you should be looking for an exit within two to three weeks. Think of him as the proverbial canary in the MTG finance coal mine.

Corbin Today

Now on to Corbin. Corbin’s numbers start small and move up over the next six months. This is very similar to his past performance, but as before, the devil is in the details.

Here are a few examples of what makes Corbin’s numbers so wild:

Deadbridge Chant: -77 perecent

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Underworld Connections: +258 percent

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Dark Depths: -83 percent (this was a sell call)
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Corbin’s track record of swinging for the fences is intact. What’s interesting is that more than half of his picks didn’t move in the first 30 days. That’s something like predicting which S&P companies are going to have surprise news next quarter—it’s just that he doesn’t know whether the news is good or bad.

Again, a counterargument can be made here. Such large movements tend to be sustained. Waiting a few weeks may confirm the trend direction that he has called, but it would mean leaving a few dollars on the table in order to reduce your risk. His picks in general have such large swings that missing the first 20% doesn’t hurt you as much as the downswing might.

Conclusions

Corbin’s picks during this round continue to be more high-risk, high-reward. An investor (Alex profile) who fears risk more than he desires gains will jettison Corbin’s picks too quickly to realize maximum profit.

If you want to flip short-term specs, Jason seems to have it down. He continues to focus on short-term “hot” picks. Remember, his picks turn fast, so “leave the last 10% for the next guy.”

Until next time, folks!

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Brian Dale

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Brian Dale is a financial advisor at Edward Jones.
Brian Dale

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  1. […] we previously pitted the two more aggressive crew members against each other, that means we can now see what […]

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