«

»

Size Matters

Share Button

Magic specs are like steaks – the rarer the better. The fewer copies of a card on the market, the bigger payoff if a spec hits. Simple enough.

Sometimes, though, the color of the expansion symbol doesn’t tell you everything you need to know about supply. Sometimes you have to consider other factors. A few months ago, in Rare is the New Uncommon, I talked about how the year a card was printed is very relevant when estimating supply. Today I’m going to talk about how the supply of two rares printed in the same year can also vary greatly. It is commonly known as the “small set” or “third set” effect.

The conventional wisdom is that a small set (or third set) will be opened less than the first set in a block because it will be drafted less and just generally available for a shorter period of time. This means fewer cards in circulation, which means higher prices for the cards that do hit from those sets. Jace, the Mind Sculptor, we’re looking at you.

While everyone agrees that the small set phenomenon is real, we need to understand the magnitude. If we can’t figure it out, we can’t separate the small set factor from the other factors that drive card prices. Are eldrazi so expensive because they are in short supply or because they are awesome? They were in a third set, but it was a big set. Would they cost much less if they were in Zendikar? Or much more if they were in Worldwake?

Traditional is the New Novelty

Wizards hasn’t done many traditional block structures in recent years, which only complicates things. The last actual big-small-small structure (before Theros this year) was Scars of Mirrodin, and we’ve only seen the “traditional” block structure two of the last five years.

This analysis is going to focus mostly on drafting, though later on I’ll talk briefly about other considerations. To get started, we need to make a few assumptions. A quick note on assumptions: any time you are lacking full information, you will need to make them. They are never perfect, but that’s fine as long as they are directionally correct. We are trying to understand the magnitude of the small set effect, not peg an exact number of cards in circulation. If you are not comfortable making assumptions, you are resigned to know exactly nothing instead of knowing something valuable within a margin of error.

We’re going to assume that people draft uniformly throughout the year and that they always draft the newest format. I think these are fair. By doing this, we can boil drafting down to two key factors. The first is the amount of time a format is current, and the second is the ratio of packs in a given format.

An example will make this easier to understand.

Starting with Theros:

  • Triple Theros will have been the format for 19 weeks by the time it is done. Obviously, it consists of three packs of Theros.

  • Born of the Gods (BNG/THS/THS) will be the format for 12 weeks. That’s seven weeks shorter than the triple Theros format, and we’ll actually still be opening two packs of Theros for every Born of the Gods pack during this time.

  • Journey Into Nyx (JOU/BNG/THS) will be the format for 11 weeks.

Clearly, Theros is going to be opened a whole lot more than Born of the Gods or Journey Into Nyx. Now let’s do the math.

Since all we care about is the ratio of sets here (like I said, we’re not trying to estimate the actual number of cards or packs opened), the units don’t matter. I’m going to multiply the number of packs in the format by the number of weeks it is current to get pack*weeks, which is a nonsensical unit that is just going to drop out later. It gets us where we need to go. Using the numbers above:

THS: (19 wks * 3 packs) + (12 wks * 2 packs) + (11 wks * 1 pack) = 92 pack*weeks

BNG: (12 wks * 1 pack) + (11 wks * 1 pack) = 23 pack*weeks

JOU: (11 wks * 1 pack) = 11 pack*weeks

So if you are wondering how much Journey Into Nyx will be drafted in comparison to Theros, just take the ratio of their pack*weeks.:

JOU / THS = 11 pack*weeks / 92 pack*weeks = 12%

This means our estimate is that 12 packs of JOU will be drafted for every 100 packs of THS. For BNG that number is 25 (23 pack*weeks / 92 pack*weeks = 25%), or one for every four packs of THS. It means that about two packs of BNG will be drafted for each pack of JOU.

The numbers are pretty dramatic, in my opinion. They are especially interesting for the MTGO market. I am of the understanding that the vast majority of digital cards find their way into the economy through drafts, although we can’t know this for sure. If that is true, rares and mythics from Theros will be in huge supply compared to the rest of the block. Think of how that affects a cycle like the Temples. There could be four R/G Temples for each B/R and there could be almost ten for each U/R (when it is release in JOU)! Ten to one!

Keep in mind that this doesn’t tell us how many packs are being opened in an absolute sense, just in comparison to Theros. We’re fine with that, it still gives us the information we need as financiers.

Okay, but Can We Go Deeper?

Now let’s have some fun and expand the analysis to older sets. Since we’re working in ratios here, we need to do everything in relative terms and pick a baseline set. Theros is perfect. We set Theros equal to one, so every other set on this chart is in terms of Theros packs.

I’m also going to add a growth factor of 25% per year to represent the growing player base. So Theros is going to get drafted 25% more than Return to Ravnica, which is going to be drafted 25% more than Innistrad, etc.

Here is our chart:

Let’s make sure we know what we are looking at. According to this model, three packs of Theros will be drafted for every one pack of M14 (33%). Even though that format was triple M14, it was drafted for a much shorter time.

About two packs of Theros will be drafted for every one Innistrad pack (56%). The difference is caused by two years of player growth along with the fact that Innistrad was benched when Avacyn Restored came out.

Return to Ravnica was drafted less than Innistrad according to this analysis. Even with 25% growth in the player base, sitting out for Gatecrash held RTR’s numbers down.

Simple enough? Modern Masters was intentionally left out because of the limited supply.

Some things that jump out to me:

  • Nothing comes even close to being drafted as heavily as Theros will be. When you combine the fact that both Innistrad block and Return to Ravnica block had unconventional draft formats with the player base growth over the last couple years, Theros is getting drafted twice as much as the previous leader. I’m talking in the history of the game.

  • Dragon’s Maze was really, absurdly, painfully underdrafted. For real. Four packs to every 100 Theros.

  • Actually, it’s not just Dragon’s Maze. Small sets really are small. They weren’t lying. Look at Worldwake (5% of Theros), New Phyrexia (5%) and Dark Ascension (9%).

  • Large sets other than the first set in a block are comparable to the core sets from the corresponding year. For example, ROE was drafted about the same as M10 or M11. That’s good to know.

Even though all sets are in terms of Theros, you can compare non-Theros sets. It’s correct to say that, by this estimate, Avacyn Restored (21%) was drafted a bit more than half as much as Gatecrash (38%).

As always, use this as a starting point and tweak as you see fit. Innistrad was an incredibly popular draft format, so you might want to adjust that number up somewhat. It’s probably not going to change your conclusions, though.

Accounting for Non-Drafted Packs

I’ve already said I think you can use this model as-is for MTGO. In paper, you have to account for all the packs that get cracked by stores and casual players outside of drafts. I have no information on this, so it’s going to be a guessing game. I will explain how I think of it, although it is certainly up for debate.

I would start by adding a “base load” of paper cards. My thinking is that stores and casual players are going to buy up a certain amount of each new set, and that won’t really depend on the draft format or the size of the set. If I own a store, I probably need to bust X boxes of each new set to get the singles to support my Constructed players. I’d still need to get those Voice of Resurgences in my case whether or not anyone was going to draft the set.

We have to do everything in terms of Theros, so let’s just guess that two-thirds of Theros cards are being opened in drafts, leaving one-third to be cracked by stores. We’ll carry this fixed amount over for all sets. Your guess is as good as mine on the number. Here’s how it would look:

The red bar is the draft portion, the blue is non-draft product being opened.

Again, it’s all guesswork, but it should show you that the drafting differential is still relevant in a scenario like this, even if the effects are minimized somewhat. Now Innistrad reads at 70% instead of 56%. As you continue to increase the fixed portion (blue bars) and minimize the Draft portion, that gap will close even more. If Draft was responsible for only a very small portion of cards coming into the market (and I don’t think it is), then it wouldn’t matter much what was getting drafted and for how long.

In reality, the blue bars will vary as well. I’m sure stores sold way more Innistrad to casuals than Dragon’s Maze. This is just a starting point, but it’s more information than we had before. Almost any way you cut it, small sets are opened far less than first sets. And Theros…well, we are swimming in it, what else can you say?

That’s quite a bit for this week. Thanks for reading.

 

Share Button
Anthony Capece

Anthony Capece

@acmtg   -    Articles
Anthony is your typical started-during-Revised-then-quit-then-came-back-years-later Magic player.He enjoys the financial aspect of the game the most, mainly because it lets him use his analytical side but also because it makes up for the money he hemorrhages drafting on MTGO.
Anthony Capece

Latest posts by Anthony Capece (see all)

About the author

Anthony Capece

@acmtg   -    Articles
Anthony is your typical started-during-Revised-then-quit-then-came-back-years-later Magic player. He enjoys the financial aspect of the game the most, mainly because it lets him use his analytical side but also because it makes up for the money he hemorrhages drafting on MTGO.

8 comments

2 pings

Skip to comment form

  1. fmammal

    You can definitely take this analysis much further. For example by determining the relative counts of a particular rare or mythic, depending on set size. Also I think assuming draft volume is constant week by week probably isn’t right, as formats get stale over time, or are more or less popular. But overall yes I’m surprised how little people understand about this topic and the relative number opened.

    In fact, I’m kind of boggled why wizards allows such a disparity in format length. I’m sure they’ve done lots of research on it.

  2. Caleb Gothberg

    Love all the math that goes into this. I get behind can certainly get behind using numbers to try to take guesswork out. The more of this we can do, the better we can speculate. I’m all about being in total control of the cash flow.

    Are we assuming that there were just as many stores and players during the Zendikar block as there are during Theros? I do realize that rough guestimation is being used here. Wouldn’t it be safe to assume that though sets will vary in packs opened (like you said Dragon’s Maze to Innistrad), but as a whole we can count on a general upward movement in our base over the past four years? I know it would be next to impossible to figure out, but I’m open to a guestimation on that too.

    I’m very interested to hear your thoughts on this. Super amazing article and I can’t wait till your next one.

    1. Anthony Capece

      Thanks for the feedback! I did include a 25% increase each year in the draft portion. That shows up best in the core sets, you can see how each M set is opened more than the last even though they are opened for the same amount of time. I didn’t include a growth factor in the non draft portion because I wanted to clearly show how non draft packs minimize the differences in draft. Still lots to be done with this kind of analysis, I would encourage anyone interested to dive deeper and let me know what they come up with!

  3. James Chillcott

    The biggest issue I see here so far is the assumption of 1/3 non-draft vs 2/3 draft. That’s gotta be way, way off. As dedicated MTG players we often vastly overestimate the product flow through gamer stores vs. big box/mass retail. I believe for instance that Walmart and Target sell many multiples of the flow through at small retail. There are always far, far more casual players than tournament players as evidenced by the fact that a “huge” tournament is 2500 players but the game is selling the tens of millions per annum now. As such, I’m thinking that it’s more like 60/40 casual/draft.

    1. Jason

      You are probably right, but in terms of MTG finance, how many cards are just never in the market from the casual players? There have to be more than a few JMTS that will never be traded or sold, or at least not until someone undergoes a major life event. Anecdotal but I have a coworker that has a collection that is possibly beta-4th edition timeframe. I can’t even get him to bring it in, he doesn’t care. Its just one of those things in his closet from college. Until something sufficiently motivates him, and the prospect of a $1500 Lotus wasn’t enough, those cards just aren’t in the market. His numbers may be closer to the mark if you are talking about non-drafted cards in active circulation.

  4. Anthony Capece

    I’m sure you are right, I picked that number to illustrate my thinking. Going with a much higher number would have made the bar chart harder to read. We are truly just guessing at the non draft component.

    Thanks for reading!

  5. Nate Walker

    Any thoughts on taking into account PTQ formats? Last season was Theros sealed, meaning even more packs cracked. During constructed PTQ seasons there isn’t as much product opened. Are the number and size of PTQ events on a scale that would make an impact or are they negligible?

  6. LeAnn McDonald

    ….”Captain Kutchie” Never Makes Up Stories But If He Did It Would Probably Be About As Good As The One That You Are About To Read Next!…..You Believe That?….

    ….Add “Captain Kutchie Pelaez” To Make This The All-Time Greatest Film Ever Made!….

    …Could. “Clint” Eastwood. Possibly Be Competing With “Captain Kutchie
    Pelaez” For The Position Of “The World’s Most Interesting Man”..
    Perhaps?…But Then Again Perhaps He Is Just Waiting For “Kutchie Pelaez and Frankie Valli” To “Make His Day”!…Ha, Go Figure!….

    ….We Heard A Few Years Back That Megyn Kelly Of Fox News, Really Loved Her Some Of Captain Kutchie’s And Anita Pelaez’s Famous Key Lime Pies! Could That Make Megyn “The Most Interesting Lady In The World?….I Guess “NO” On That One, That One Would Have To Be “The Lovely –Mrs. Anita Pelaez” The Queen Of The Key Lime Pie World!

    ….I sure hope that this will be a great opportunity for everyone to see some of “Don Rickle’s Scenes” from his productions of his classic hits “The Tales From Kutcharitaville”. You Do know that Don Rickles and Johnny Carson together produced those comedy hits about their friend “Mr. Kutchie Pelaez” and their wild and crazy exploits of Kutchie’s Key West and The World of Key Lime Pies from the perspective of (Johnny Carson, Don Rickles, Kutchie Pelaez and Steve Martins Eyes!) What a Hoot Those Classic Hits Surely Were. Don’t miss them, be sure to tune-in next month. We Laughed Until We Cried Watching Those Funny Movies. “The Tales From Kutcharitaville”, I Think That They May Still Be Available In A Boxed Set. Maybe Try Amazon. Good Luck.

    You Know, It’s No Wonder That Everyone Calls “Captain Kutchie
    Pelaez”..The Most Interesting Man In The World! Did You Know That
    Kutchie Drinks Those Wonderful Mixed Drinks Named In His Honor Called “Kutcharitas”.?. There A Hell Of A Lot Better Than Any Mexican Beers. And Much Stronger To Boot!

    ….That Sunken Ship In The News These Days,

    ….It’s Been Resting Down On The Bottom Of The Sea Since Way Back In
    1857, “Mel Fisher” Even Overlooked That One!… “Yankee Jack” and “Micheal
    McCloud” Now Have Reason To Write Another Song…(Hint-Hint-Hint) “Jack” Listen-Up Here!

    ….Hell, We Can’t Find A Boeing 777 That’s Been Lost Only A Little Over
    A Few Months Now! Could It Be Because The Jet Had No Silver and Gold Aboard, Just People?….Go Figure……

    ….Good Thing That All The ….(“Anita And Kutchie Pelaez’s Key West Key Lime Pie Shops”)..Are All Showing Increasing Pie Sales Throughout All They’re Areas Of Distribution. Consumers Just Never Seem To Reach They’re Fill Of Those “Yummy Key Lime Pies” That The “Peleaz’s Working Partner Team” Continues To Produce. They Have Been Called “Love At First Bite”. Everyone Agrees, That The Loving Couple Have Been Baking They’re Culinary Delectables Over 40-Years Now!….

    Isn’t She Wonderful?….”AAAHHHH”, The Magic Of The Gorgeous “Mrs. Anita Pelaez” Well She Is Something Else!…She’s The Real Thing Baby!….

    ….Who The Hell Does That “Kutchie Pelaez” Think That He Is?….”Frankie Valli” Or Some Big-Shot Like That?

    ….It’s No Wonder That People Are All Calling Him “The Most Interesting Man In The World”,…Big Girls Don’t Cry…Do They?….

    ….Don’t Cha Just Love Em!?….We Sure Do!….It is A Well Known Fact
    That “Captain Kutchie Pelaez” Knows Who Put The Bomp In The Bomp Shoo Bomp Shoo Bomp And The Rama In The Rama Lama Ding Dong!.

    He Even Knows Who Put The Dip In The Dip Da Dip Da Dip!…How Cool Is That?….

    ….a-good-1-4-u-2-n-joy-ok!..

    .”Very Interesting”!….

    ….”Frankie Valli and Kutchie Pelaez”..Did Make-It As Big As “Frank Sanatra”.

    ….”Yeah” A Few Wise Guys They Certainly Were “Frankie Valli, Kutchie Pelaez and Joe Pesci”!….Together “The Gang That Couldn’t Shoot Straight”!…..

    ….Mafiosi Wanna-Bee’s. The Key Lime Pie “Wild Bunch”. They’ve Got Everyone Shaking In They’re Flip-Flops!….”Even “Jimmy Buffet” Doesn’t Know Where It’s Safe To Hide-Out”!….Especially Since Everyone Found-Out That “Captain Kutchie” Was The One Who First Came-Up With “The Original Cheese Burgers In Paradise” And Kutchie’s Buddy “Levi Stubbs” Of The “Four Tops” Helped Him Name Them Way Back In The Early 70’s.

    ….Eli Wallach, Be Careful, Don’t Eat The “Cannoli’s”!…They’re Killer Man!….

    ….They Lived!…They Really Did!…Just Ask “Levi”!….

    ….I’d Give My Left “Nut” To Set Down With “Captain Kutchie Pelaez,
    Frankie Valli, Terry Levi, Joe Pesci, Bob Gaudio, Bob Crewe, Paul Shaffer, Bob De Niro, Tommy DeVito, Martin Scorsese And Clint East Wood And Yankee Jack”!
    Rub Elbows And Shoot The Shit With That Whole Crew Of “Good Fellows” Or “Wise Guys” Or Whatever The Hell You Want To Call Them!….”Who Wouldn’t”?….

    ….I Believe That “Kutchie” First Sang “My Eyes Adored You” And “Can’t
    Take My Eyes Off Of You” To His Lovely Bride “Anita” Way Back In The
    Seventies! ….Sounds Like A Love Story To Us!…A Very Good Yarn! “You”

    “You’re Good You”….

    ….That “Captain Kutchie” Always Lands Back On His Feet. No Matter How Tough The Situation Is He Always Comes Back Up On The Top Of The Heap, King Of The Hill! Everyone Knows That! Never Count The Captain Out No Matter How Down The Chips May Appear!….

    …Remember That He Is Not Only “The World Famous Captain Kutchie
    Pelaez” But Please Keep In Mind That “Captain Kutchie” Is Also
    Considered “The Most Interesting Man In The World”!….Why Else Would Everyone Be Talking About Him And His Wild And Crazy Exploits?…

    ….His Drop Dead Gorgeous Wife “Anita” And They’re Famous Key Lime Pies!….They’re World Famous Historic Key West Kutcharitaville Key Lime Pie Factory and Grill, Home Of The Famous “Goody Goody” Cheese Burgers In Paradise!….All Conveniently Located In NC Near The Famous “Biltmore House And Estate!….

    ….Yeah, You’re Good You. No You’re “DAMN GOOD YOU”….

    ….Also Add “The Two Yutes”….”What’s A Yute”? You Might Ask. Just Ask “Yankee Jack”.

    ….Marriage Lasts Forever and Ever, Two People Become One!
    A Covenant Between A Husband, His Wife And The Lord “Jesus” The Christ!
    Marriage, The Same Yesterday Today Tomorrow And Forever More! True Love Never Changes!

    Just Ask “Captain Kutchie Pelaez” He Knows!….That What The Lord Puts Together Can Never Be Broken!….That “Captain Kutchie” Really Knows His Stuff. He’s Mind Blowing To Say The Least!…

    ….”Captain Kutchie” Never Kisses Ass But If He Did Kiss An Ass It Would Probably Be His Beautiful Wife’s Ass!….You Go “Captain Kutchie”!….

    ….”Captain Kutchie” Always Said That To Him That “James Garner” Was To Him One Of The World’s Most Interesting Persons. So I Guess That This Key Lime Pie Should Be For You This Month “ROCKFISH”…(RIP)!….

    ….Only “Jim Rockford” Could Have Came Close To “Fred Thompson” In “Persecuted”, Fred Really Nailed It In This Flick!….

    ….”Captain Kutchie”, You Put You’re Cloth’s Back On, “You”!….

    ….Who Dat, Dat Say “Who Dat” Every Time Dat I Say Who Dat, “Who Dat”?….

    ….Nobody Be Done Does It Better Than The “Captain Kutchie” Be Done Did!….

    ….At A Time Like This, I Can’t Help But Think, What Would “Captain Kutchie” Say?….

    ….Yeah, With They’re Olive Oil Voice And Guinea Charm, The Damn Dago Wop Grease-Ball Goombahs Are Out To Steal Everyone’s Grease! The Scumbags!…. That’s Probably What Captain Kutchie Might Say!…

    ….Looks Like That Scary Snow Snake!….”Albino Cobra”…..Wasting My Time….

    ….Anita and Captain Kutchie Pelaez’s Key Lime Pies Are Really As Good As Everyone Says They Are. The Proof Is In The Pudding, They’re That Damn Good!….

  1. Rotation: How Soon is Now? » Brainstorm Brewery

    […] the usual first set and more Gatecrash out there than the usual second set.  Check out my article here for more info on draft ratios. This is interesting because most of the good Modern cards in this […]

  2. UNLOCKED: The ABCs of MTG Finance | Blog.MTGPrice.com

    […] Incidentally, Anthony Capece drew heavily on Hasbro shareholders reports for his research in two of my all-time favorite MTG finance articles: “Rare is the New Uncommon” and “Size Matters.” […]

Leave a Reply to Jason Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published.