Weekend Magic: 2/6-2/8 (PT Fate Reforged Edition)

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Hey, guys, I’ve got some sweet Modern action to cover this week based on the results that have come in from Pro Tour Fate Reforged. Let’s take a look at the standings, what cards were featured in some of the best-performing decks, and if there are any undervalued pieces left after all the spikes and card buy outs that happened in real time as players saw cards being used on screen.

Pro Tour Fate Reforged (Washington, DC)

Format – Modern

Decklists

Top 8 By the Numbers

Mythic Rare (25) Rare (238) Uncommon (90)
8x Tarmogoyf 16x Scalding Tarn 12x Lingering Souls
7x Liliana of the Veil 12x Verdant Catacombs 9x Path to Exile
4x Voice of Resurgence 12x Siege Rhino 8x Monastery Swiftspear
4x Primeval Titan 9x Windswept Heath 8x Deceiver Exarch
1x Vesuva 9x Thoughtseize 8x Boros Charm
1x Batterskull 8x Wooded Foothills 7x Remand
8x Splinter Twin 6x Skullcrack
8x Goblin Guide 6x Inquisition of Kozilek
8x Eidolon of the Great Revel 5x Lightning Helix
7x Snapcaster Mage 4x Summer Bloom
7x Noble Hierarch 4x Spell Snare
7x Marsh Flats 3x Tolaria West
7x Abrupt Decay 3x Kitchen Finks
6x Steam Vents 3x Electrolyze
6x Sacred Foundry 2x Dismember
6x Misty Rainforest 1x Tectonic Edge
5x Overgrown Tomb 1x Sunhome, Fortress of the Legion
5x Gavony Township
5x Cryptic Command
5x Bloodstained Mire
5x Arid Mesa
4x Tasigur, the Golden Fang
4x Summoner’s Pact
4x Sulfur Falls
4x Scavenging Ooze
4x Gemstone Mine
4x Birds of Paradise
4x Amulet of Vigor
3x Wilt-Leaf Liege
3x Twilight Mire
3x Temple Garden
3x Stomping Ground
3x Razorverge Thicket
3x Loxodon Smiter
3x Hive Mind
3x Grim Lavamancer
3x Godless Shrine
2x Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
2x Stirring Wildwood
2x Pact of Negation
2x Flooded Strand
2x Cavern of Souls
2x Blood Moon
2x Azusa, Lost but Seeking
1x Vault of the Archangel
1x Tendo Ice Bridge
1x Slayers’ Stronghold
1x Slaughter Pact
1x Mana Confluence
1x Maelstrom Pulse
1x Desolate Lighthouse
1x Breeding Pool

 

 

Common (89) Sideboard (120)
16x Lightning Bolt 7x Destructive Revelry
12x Serum Visions 6x Stony Silence
8x Rift Bolt 6x Molten Rain
8x Lava Spike 6x Leyline of Sanctity
7x Searing Blaze 6x Kor Firewalker
4x Treetop Village 6x Fulminator Mage
4x Simic Growth Chamber 4x Batterskull
4x Shard Volley 4x Ancient Grudge
4x Pestermite 3x Zealous Persecution
4x Ancient Stirrings 3x Smash to Smithereens
3x Gruul Turf 3x Path to Exile
2x Sleight of Hand 3x Dispel
2x Qasali Pridemage 3x Blood Moon
2x Mana Leak 3x Aven Mindcensor
1x Simian Spirit Guide 3x Anger of the Gods
1x Selesnya Sanctuary 2x Wurmcoil Engine
1x Radiant Fountain 2x Thragtusk
1x Peek 2x Thoughtseize
1x Khalni Garden 2x Sword of War and Peace
1x Golgari Rot Farm 2x Spellskite
1x Flame Slash 2x Skullcrack
1x Dispel 2x Pyroclasm
1x Boros Garrison 2x Nature’s Claim
2x Keranos, God of Storms
2x Fracturing Gust
2x Firespout
2x Deflecting Palm
2x Damnation
2x Chalice of the Void
1x Vendilion Clique
1x Vedalken Shackles
1x Timely Reinforcements
1x Threads of Disloyalty
1x Swan Song
1x Sorin, Solemn Visitor
1x Slaughter Pact
1x Sigarda, Host of Herons
1x Shatterstorm
1x Searing Blaze
1x Seal of Primordium
1x Scavenging Ooze
1x Rule of Law
1x Relic of Progenitus
1x Negate
1x Liliana of the Veil
1x Lightning Helix
1x Jace, Architect of Thought
1x Hornet Queen
1x Ghost Quarter
1x Flame Slash
1x Feed the Clan
1x Engineered Explosives
1x Creeping Corrosion
1x Choke
1x Ajani, Mentor of Heroes

mprlightningbolt

From the data, we see that:

The question here becomes: where is the value? Plenty of cards are already expensive and others are poised for a price drop once Modern Masters 2 rolls around.

In my humble opinion, value lies in foils more than non-foils at this point. For example, foil commons or uncommons that aren’t completely overpriced should be good good pickups. Good examples here include Lingering Souls, Path to Exile, Boros Charm, and Searing Blaze (the Player Rewards textless version is also a good pickup at $2.50). Other foils that are pricier but are still undervalued are Eidolon of the Great Revel, foil Khans fetchlands, and even foil Abrupt Decays, which still have a chance of growing since they will not be present in MM2.

eidolon

Looking at the sideboards, we see that Destructive Revelry was the most-played card but only saw action in Burn sideboards. Regardless, foils at $1.50 or less seem like a great pickup to me. Destructive Revelry also sees Legacy play and will derive foil demand from that format as well. Kor Firewalker is also a nice target, due to the popularity of Burn in the format. I like foils and non-foils if you can get them on the cheap.

Which cards didn’t spike from the weekend? Cards in this category include Primeval Titan, Splinter Twin, Goblin Guide, and Summoner’s Pact. Land cards also didn’t really see an uptick in price, even though lands such as Stirring Wildwood, Razorverge Thicket, Gemstone Mine, and Gavony Township all saw play, their prices didn’t increase from the weekend. Tolaria West has actually been trending downward in price recently from its highs of $7 retail at one point.

Potentially undervalued cards that saw some play in the Top 8, and probably more throughout the other decks at the Pro Tour, include Scavenging Ooze, Skullcrack, Inquisition of Kozilek, Lightning Helix, Kitchen Finks, Dismember, Grim Lavamancer, Loxodon Smiter, Birds of Paradise, and Voice of Resurgence. All of these cards are great in the new format and should be watched for price movements and any potential future reprints.

smiter

What cards didn’t see play this weekend that were really hyped up? Geist of Saint Traft has to be on the top of list, along with Restoration Angel, Vengevine, Bloodghast, Grove of the Burnwillows, Chord of Calling, Golgari Grave-Troll, and Ghostway (which was bought out for some reason, I guess as a Birthing Pod replacement maybe?). Not that you should liquidate any of these cards right away, but they aren’t increasing in price in the near future. Some of them could even see a significant downward trend in price if their play continues to be suppressed.

In Summary

That’s it for Pro Tour action. We’ll have to keep our ears to the ground to see if more innovations in Modern are discovered. Some decks that didn’t make the Top 8 but were featured in camera matches include Infect, Merfolk, Living End, Affinity, and B/W Tokens. Abzan was about one third of the field even though Birthing Pod is banned, which speaks volumes. The plethora of decks featured at the Pro Tour shows that Modern is healthy and diverse format despite all the shakeups from bannings and unbannings. I look forward to see where Modern is going to go next.

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Jared Yost

Jared is a longtime Magic player who has been slinging cardboard since Odyssey block (back when creatures came into play). He was introduced to the financial side of Magic during Return to Ravnica block and hasn't looked back since. He is a resident of the VA area located just outside of DC. His favorite MTG formats include Limited, Legacy, and Commander. Regardless of format, he prefers making creature tokens. You can follow him on Twitter: @gildedgoblin.

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