Hey, guys, I’ve got some sweet Modern action to cover this week based on the results that have come in from Pro Tour Fate Reforged. Let’s take a look at the standings, what cards were featured in some of the best-performing decks, and if there are any undervalued pieces left after all the spikes and card buy outs that happened in real time as players saw cards being used on screen.
Pro Tour Fate Reforged (Washington, DC)
Format – Modern
Top 8 By the Numbers
From the data, we see that:
- The largest number of main deck cards from the Top 8 were:
- Sixteen copies each – Scalding Tarn and Lightning Bolt
- Twelve copies each – Verdant Catacombs, Lingering Souls, Siege Rhino, Serum Visions
- Nine copies each – Windswept Heath, Thoughtseize, Path to Exile
- Eight copies each – Tarmogoyf, Wooded Foothills, Splinter Twin, Goblin Guide, Eidolon of the Great Revel, Monastery Swiftspear, Deceiver Exarch, Boros Charm, Rift Bolt, Lava Spike
- Seven copies each – Liliana of the Veil, Snapcaster Mage, Noble Hierarch, Marsh Flats, Abrupt Decay, Remand, Searing Blaze
- The largest number of sideboard cards from the Top 8 were:
The question here becomes: where is the value? Plenty of cards are already expensive and others are poised for a price drop once Modern Masters 2 rolls around.
In my humble opinion, value lies in foils more than non-foils at this point. For example, foil commons or uncommons that aren’t completely overpriced should be good good pickups. Good examples here include Lingering Souls, Path to Exile, Boros Charm, and Searing Blaze (the Player Rewards textless version is also a good pickup at $2.50). Other foils that are pricier but are still undervalued are Eidolon of the Great Revel, foil Khans fetchlands, and even foil Abrupt Decays, which still have a chance of growing since they will not be present in MM2.
Looking at the sideboards, we see that Destructive Revelry was the most-played card but only saw action in Burn sideboards. Regardless, foils at $1.50 or less seem like a great pickup to me. Destructive Revelry also sees Legacy play and will derive foil demand from that format as well. Kor Firewalker is also a nice target, due to the popularity of Burn in the format. I like foils and non-foils if you can get them on the cheap.
Which cards didn’t spike from the weekend? Cards in this category include Primeval Titan, Splinter Twin, Goblin Guide, and Summoner’s Pact. Land cards also didn’t really see an uptick in price, even though lands such as Stirring Wildwood, Razorverge Thicket, Gemstone Mine, and Gavony Township all saw play, their prices didn’t increase from the weekend. Tolaria West has actually been trending downward in price recently from its highs of $7 retail at one point.
Potentially undervalued cards that saw some play in the Top 8, and probably more throughout the other decks at the Pro Tour, include Scavenging Ooze, Skullcrack, Inquisition of Kozilek, Lightning Helix, Kitchen Finks, Dismember, Grim Lavamancer, Loxodon Smiter, Birds of Paradise, and Voice of Resurgence. All of these cards are great in the new format and should be watched for price movements and any potential future reprints.
What cards didn’t see play this weekend that were really hyped up? Geist of Saint Traft has to be on the top of list, along with Restoration Angel, Vengevine, Bloodghast, Grove of the Burnwillows, Chord of Calling, Golgari Grave-Troll, and Ghostway (which was bought out for some reason, I guess as a Birthing Pod replacement maybe?). Not that you should liquidate any of these cards right away, but they aren’t increasing in price in the near future. Some of them could even see a significant downward trend in price if their play continues to be suppressed.
That’s it for Pro Tour action. We’ll have to keep our ears to the ground to see if more innovations in Modern are discovered. Some decks that didn’t make the Top 8 but were featured in camera matches include Infect, Merfolk, Living End, Affinity, and B/W Tokens. Abzan was about one third of the field even though Birthing Pod is banned, which speaks volumes. The plethora of decks featured at the Pro Tour shows that Modern is healthy and diverse format despite all the shakeups from bannings and unbannings. I look forward to see where Modern is going to go next.