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Paul’s Pre-GP Rundown

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You have less than a month to sell your Mutavaults or trade them away for something insane five minutes before a PTQ starts. This card should be in an event deck soon, and even if it’s not, demand can’t get much higher. There’s no upside left in the card, and it’s time to turn your copies into something else if you haven’t already.

Jan van der Vegt is apparently on the Goryo’s Vengeance/Through the Breach deck for GP Prague, but with a five-color manabase to support Fist of Suns as a third way to cheat in Emrakul, the Aeons Torn and Griselbrand. I have no idea if this version of the deck is good, but you can get Fist for under $2 and its casual appeal will help mitigate the risk (it has a 27% spread, though some of this is likely due to potential hype about the deck). I think this is close to a free roll if you’re paying attention this weekend and can cash out before stores update their buy prices should the deck flop.

Primeval Titan has a 15% spread and is 20 tickets on MTGO. These are both giant signs pointing towards the card going up fairly dramatically in the near future. It’s in some versions of Scapeshift as well as the fringe Amulet of Vigor deck. It’s also in the Green Devotion deck everyone has been secretly brewing at 3:00 a.m. I’ll admit I bought in pretty hard on these last week and I still like the price they’re at—between GP Prague and Pro Tour Born of the Gods in the short term, as well as Modern PTQ season coming in a few months, this bet feels hard to lose.

Gemstone Mine is another interesting pickup. It’s in the Fist of SunsGriselbrand deck I mentioned earlier as well as the Amulet of VigorPrimeval Titan deck. Normally being in two fringe strategies wouldn’t be very interesting, but it also has a 30% spread and lots of demand outside of Modern. I don’t think Mine is an outright buy so much as a trade target, but it’s something to keep an eye out for during the next few weeks when you’re at events.

I cannot keep copies of Cabal Therapy for more than a day or two. There are 32 total listings on TCGplayer right now and the internet is slowly drying up (Star City Games is completely sold out, for instance). I think this card could hit $20 or more over the course of a day and is a fantastic pick up.

Avacyn Restored is in the middle of a price adjustment. Avacyn, Angel of Hope, Craterhoof Behemoth, and Griselbrand have seen significant increases over the past few months and I don’t think the set is done experiencing these kind of jumps. I love Cavern of Souls as a pickup right now—this has real long-term potential to hit $20 or more in a few years with no competitive results, a la Vampire Nocturnus before the reprint. However, the card also has real legs in Modern and Legacy Merfolk decks, which makes it even more appealing. Cavern isn’t a cash buy right now, but it’s a very solid trade target that I don’t think you can lose on in the long term.

Andrew Shrout continues to show us that green-white is not completely dead in Standard. His results combined with the upcoming G/W temple in Born of the Gods would normally lead me to believe that buying into Standard G/W staples this month is an easy way to turn a profit, but I’m not sold in this case. Take a look at his list:

That’s 34 rares and mythics. Granted, eight of them are Mistcutter Hydras and Skylashers, but they could just as easily be Ajani, Caller of the Pride, Loxodon Smiter, or Witchstalker.

With around half the deck being made up of rares and mythics, I think any type of price increase will be spread out among too many cards for anyone to make any money. The lone exception is Advent of the Wurm because everyone hated Dragon’s Maze, so the relative supply will be much lower. It’s also entirely possible that Lifebane Zombie is actually the best pickup if we think G/W is going to be good, but it’s almost three times as expensive as Advent, so it has less upside. We can probably wait a bit longer before picking it up.

I invested in Scavenging Ooze instead of Mutavault this September. Oops. I like Ooze as a trade acquisition this month, if not an outright buy, while it’s price is so significantly depressed. I don’t think there’s much more time than that to get in because the temples coming in Born of the Gods should help make midrange strategies relevant in Standard again, which is where Ooze is at its best. Don’t get me wrong, Sylvan Caryatid is the main reason to play Green in midrange strategies and Ooze will probably be riding its coattails, but I don’t think that matters. The promo hurts the ceiling somewhat, but I still think Ooze can hit $12 with broad demand once the format evens out a little.

It’s very interesting that Standard prices haven’t really moved much despite PTQs starting a month ago. At the same time, various older cards have doubled. We all have to learn the pricing patterns of the new PTQ schedule and how the different block structures fit within it. For instance, I’m staying away from all Theros cards until June (right before M15 and during Modern season). We haven’t had a big-small-small block since Scars of Mirrodin, when the playerbase was significantly smaller, and while I don’t know what drafting a set for nine months is going to do with this large a player base, I have a hunch.

Have comments? Please share below.

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Paul Feudo

Paul Feudo

@plfeudo     -     Email     -     Articles
Paul Feudo has been playing magic since Urza's Destiny. After gloriously scrubbing out of GP Anaheim in 2012, he changed his focus from competitive play to the financial aspects of the game.
Paul Feudo

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Paul Feudo

@plfeudo     -     Email     -     Articles
Paul Feudo has been playing magic since Urza's Destiny. After gloriously scrubbing out of GP Anaheim in 2012, he changed his focus from competitive play to the financial aspects of the game.

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  1. Jason Alt

    Everyone make sure and welcome Paul to the Brainstorm Brewery team.

  2. Vale Tech Industries

    Great to see your column again!

  3. Aregand

    Hi Paul , Good advise on these cards. I would like to add that the Gemstone Mine reprint was Timeshifted so it still has the original frame. The Judge Promo is the only Modern frame version and seeing prices on the other Judge Promos from that time are higher they could disappear quickly.

    1. Paul Feudo

      That’s a good point. As Modern pimping becomes more accepted the Judge Gemstone Mines may be an interesting pick up, however, I’m not sure where they will be in the hierarchy of ‘pimpness’ compared to foreign foil Time Spiral ones.

      1. Aregand

        Well that is the case for most cards – I’m sure a foil Japanese Polluted Delta is more desired than the Judge Promo version but that didn’t keep the Judge Promo from going up.

        1. Paul Feudo

          That’s much more true of higher end legacy cards. We don’t know how the market will end up for modern or whether non-English cards hold as significant a premium as they do in legacy.

  4. Aaron

    Advent of the Wurm was in an event deck; the supply is pretty high.

    1. Jason Alt

      Stoneforge mystic, verdant catacombs and birthing pod are in event decks.

  5. Anonymous

    Good article. Cabal Therapy has moved to 17 USD today and is still available for around 8 USD in Europe.

  6. Andrew

    Welcome to the team! I’ve been following you on twitter for some time now. It’s nice to see some stretched out thoughts!

    Thanks much

    Andrew

  1. Jason’s Alticle: Sheep Get Slaughtered | Quiet Speculation - Learn. Trade. Profit.

    […] watch during normally unproductive hours of the day. Fist of the Suns spiked very hard. Paul Feudo wrote about the deck on Friday Morning and $2 was a good buy-in point, but by Saturday these were $10. This may be the new face of […]

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