PT Fate Reforged: 18 Match Points (6-4) or Better, By the Numbers

Share Button

Based on comments from my previous article, I would like to take a more in-depth approach to Pro Tour Fate Reforged. Covering only the top eight leaves out many of other archetypes that were present over the weekend. This time, I’m going to look at all the players who earned at least 18 match points (a 6-4 record equivalent) and see if there are any deeper trends that the top eight did not show. First we’ll look at the data, then note the trends that are present, and finally see if there are any undervalued cards that haven’t caught up with the pro tour hype.

Decklists

A-E, F-L, M-R, S-Z

18 Match Points or Better, By the Numbers

Mythic Rare Uncommon
136 Tarmogoyf 197 Verdant Catacombs 116 Lingering Souls
107 Liliana of the Veil 124 Windswept Heath 115 Path to Exile
32 Mox Opal 123 Siege Rhino 102 Inquisition of Kozilek
25 Grove of the Burnwillows 123 Thoughtseize 73 Boros Charm
22 Dark Confidant 121 Abrupt Decay 72 Monastery Swiftspear
21 Voice of Resurgence 108 Marsh Flats 59 Might of Old Krosa
20 Primeval Titan 102 Scalding Tarn 58 Skullcrack
16 AEther Vial 97 Noble Hierarch 55 Become Immense
16 Karn Liberated 92 Inkmoth Nexus 48 Tectonic Edge
12 Windbrisk Heights 88 Wooded Foothills 45 Remand
11 Wurmcoil Engine 83 Scavenging Ooze 39 Lightning Helix
10 Doran, the Siege Tower 80 Misty Rainforest 33 Dismember
9 Master of Waves 76 Goblin Guide 32 Darksteel Citadel
8 Geist of Saint Traft 72 Overgrown Tomb 32 Springleaf Drum
8 Sorin, Solemn Visitor 68 Eidolon of the Great Revel 28 Deceiver Exarch
6 Dryad Arbor 62 Arid Mesa
5 Batterskull 55 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
5 Vesuva 54 Sacred Foundry
4 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn 51 Bloodstained Mire
4 Eye of Ugin 51 Godless Shrine
4 Sphinx’s Revelation 47 Breeding Pool
4 Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas 47 Snapcaster Mage
4 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon 45 Steam Vents
4 Vengevine 45 Stomping Ground
3 Past in Flames 42 Stirring Wildwood
2 Archangel of Thune 39 Temple Garden
2 Chandra, Pyromaster 37 Cryptic Command
2 Murmuring Bosk 37 Twilight Mire
1 Anafenza, the Foremost 32 Arcbound Ravager
1 Gideon Jura 32 Blinkmoth Nexus
1 Linvala, Keeper of Silence 31 Grim Lavamancer
1 Sigarda, Host of Herons 31 Splinter Twin
1 Sorin, Lord of Innistrad 30 Pendelhaven
1 Sundering Titan 30 Wild Defiance
1 Sword of Feast and Famine 29 Glimmervoid
1 Sword of Fire and Ice 29 Spellskite
1 Sword of Light and Shadow 26 Flooded Strand
1 Thrun, the Last Troll 24 Steel Overseer
23 Birds of Paradise
22 Maelstrom Pulse
21 Sulfur Falls
20 Amulet of Vigor
20 Gemstone Mine
20 Summoner’s Pact
18 Gavony Township
16 Fulminator Mage
16 Oblivion Stone
16 Scapeshift
15 Loxodon Smiter
14 Blackcleave Cliffs
14 Etched Champion
14 Hive Mind
13 Master of Etherium
13 Razorverge Thicket
13 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
12 Blood Moon
12 Cavern of Souls
12 Celestial Colonnade
12 Lord of Atlantis
12 Master of the Pearl Trident
12 Mutavault
12 Wilt-Leaf Liege
11 Azusa, Lost but Seeking
10 Blood Crypt
10 Hallowed Fountain
10 Pact of Negation
10 Polluted Delta
10 Vault of the Archangel
9 Courser of Kruphi
9 Desolate Lighthouse
9 Living End
9 Restoration Angel
9 Seachrome Coast
9 Slaughter Pact
8 Bloodghast
8 Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle
8 Wanderwine Hub
7 Auriok Champion
6 Isolated Chapel
6 Tidebinder Mage
5 Honor of the Pure
5 Slayers’ Stronghold
5 Supreme Verdict
4 Bitterblossom
4 Clifftop Retreat
4 Fetid Heath
4 Flagstones of Trokair
4 Flooded Grove
4 Gravecrawler
4 Horizon Canopy
4 Leonin Arbiter
4 Life from the Loam
4 Lotleth Troll
4 Mana Confluence
4 Phantasmal Image
4 Pyromancer Ascension
4 Ranger of Eos
4 Serra Ascendant
4 Tempered Steel
4 Tendo Ice Bridge
4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Watery Grave
3 Copperline Gorge
3 Engineered Explosives
3 Golgari Grave-Troll
3 Leyline of Sanctity
3 Woodland Cemetery
2 Glacial Fortress
2 Hinterland Harbor
2 Mirran Crusader
2 Mystic Gate
2 Raging Ravine
2 Shivan Reef
2 Squee, Goblin Nabob
2 Swan Song
2 Sygg, River Guide
2 Temple of Mystery
1 Cascade Bluffs
1 Chord of Calling
1 City of Brass
1 Dragonskull Summit
1 Fire-Lit Thicket
1 Ghostfire Blade
1 Llanowar Wastes
1 Minamo, School at Water’s Edge
1 Oboro, Palace in the Clouds
1 Profane Command
1 Ruric Thar, the Unbowed
1 Slaughter Games
1 Underground River
1 Vengeful Pharaoh
1 Yavimaya Coast

tarmogoyf

Common Sideboard
131 Lightning Bolt 93 Stony Silence
68 Lava Spike 90 Fulminator Mage
68 Rift Bolt 78 Spellskite
63 Serum Visions 65 Nature’s Claim
63 Treetop Village 59 Destructive Revelry
61 Gitaxian Probe 52 Molten Rain
61 Searing Blaze 48 Timely Reinforcements
60 Blighted Agent 47 Ancient Grudge
60 Glistener Elf 38 Kor Firewalker
59 Mutagenic Growth 36 Twisted Image
56 Vines of Vastwood 35 Dispel
32 Apostle’s Blessing 35 Spell Pierce
32 Cranial Plating 31 Leyline of Sanctity
32 Ornithopter 27 Creeping Corrosion
32 Vault Skirge 26 Path to Exile
31 Ancient Stirrings 26 Thoughtseize
31 Shard Volley 24 Engineered Explosives
26 Distortion Strike 23 Lightning Heli
24 Sleight of Hand 21 Negate
20 Simic Growth Chamber 21 Smash to Smithereens
18 Mana Leak 20 Dismember
16 Chromatic Sphere 19 Combust
16 Expedition Map 18 Batterskull
16 Pestermite 18 Blood Moon
16 Sakura-Tribe Elder 18 Obstinate Baloth
16 Search for Tomorrow 16 Duress
15 Gruul Turf 16 Swan Song
14 Groundswell 15 Chalice of the Void
14 Spreading Seas 14 Anger of the Gods
12 Deadshot Minotaur 14 Etched Champion
12 Demonic Dread 14 Slaughter Games
12 Monstrous Carabid 14 Sower of Temptation
12 Street Wraith 14 Wild Defiance
12 Violent Outburst 12 Pyroclasm
12 Wild Nacatl 12 Wear / Tear
9 Galvanic Blast 11 Boil
9 Jungle Weaver 11 Rest in Peace
9 Qasali Pridemage 11 Seal of Primordium
9 Thoughtcast 11 Zealous Persecution
9 Welding Jar 10 Carrion Call
8 Faithless Looting 10 Choke
8 Ichorclaw Myr 10 Damnation
8 Thought Scour 10 Firespout
7 Peer Through Depths 10 Lingering Souls
6 Architects of Will 10 Relic of Progenitus
6 Terminate 10 Skullcrack
5 Boros Garrison 9 Dryad Arbor
5 Golgari Rot Farm 9 Rule of Law
5 Khalni Garden 9 Thrun, the Last Troll
5 Selesnya Sanctuary 8 Celestial Purge
5 Simian Spirit Guide 8 Maelstrom Pulse
5 Victim of Night 8 Mirran Crusader
4 Flame Slash 8 Nyx-Fleece Ram
4 Goblin Electromancer 8 Sigarda, Host of Herons
4 Grisly Salvage 8 Thragtusk
4 Pale Recluse 7 Burrenton Forge-Tender
4 Plague Stinger 7 Deathmark
4 Pyretic Ritual 7 Drown in Sorrow
4 Radiant Fountain 7 Fracturing Gust
4 Raise the Alarm 7 Illness in the Ranks
4 Repeal 7 Searing Blaze
4 Soul Warden 7 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Soul’s Attendant 7 Vendilion Clique
4 Squadron Hawk 7 Wurmcoil Engine
3 Farseek 6 Aven Mindcensor
3 Gurmag Angler 6 Deflecting Palm
3 Peek 6 Gaddock Teeg
3 Satyr Wayfinder 6 Golgari Charm
3 Seal of Primordium 6 Ingot Chewer
3 Spell Pierce 6 Kataki, War’s Wage
2 Gather the Townsfolk 6 Shatterstorm
2 Grapeshot 6 Slaughter Pact
2 Nature’s Claim 6 Sorin, Solemn Visitor
1 Compulsive Research 6 Sword of War and Peace
1 Dispel 5 Feed the Clan
1 Duress 5 Flames of the Blood Hand
1 Flame Jab 5 Gnaw to the Bone
1 Giant Growth 5 Keranos, God of Storms
1 Golgari Brownscale 5 Kitchen Finks
1 Igneous Pouncer 5 Ricochet Trap
1 Kabira Crossroads 5 Shriekmaw
1 Raven’s Crime 5 Sword of Light and Shadow
1 Temur Battle Rage 5 Tectonic Edge
1 Twisted Abomination 4 Abrupt Decay
1 Vapor Snag 4 Counterflu
4 Dark Confidant
4 Elspeth, Knight-Errant
4 Grim Lavamancer
4 Liliana of the Veil
4 Memoricide
4 Nihil Spellbomb
4 Piracy Charm
4 Scavenging Ooze
4 Stain the Mind
4 Surgical Extraction
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Tidebinder Mage
4 Torpor Orb
4 Whipflare
3 Ajani, Mentor of Heroes
3 All Is Dust
3 Baneslayer Angel
3 Damping Matri
3 Eidolon of the Great Revel
3 Empty the Warrens
3 Geist of Saint Traft
3 Gideon Jura
3 Gifts Ungiven
3 Gigadrowse
3 Inferno Titan
3 Lightning Bolt
3 Pithing Needle
3 Sowing Salt
3 Sylvan Scrying
3 Tormod’s Crypt
2 Abzan Charm
2 Back to Nature
2 Bojuka Bog
2 Chained to the Rocks
2 Crackling Doom
2 Creeping Tar Pit
2 Crucible of Worlds
2 Darkblast
2 Dispatch
2 Eidolon of Rhetoric
2 Ghost Quarter
2 Golgari Brownscale
2 Hero of Bladehold
2 Hornet Queen
2 Hurkyl’s Recall
2 Keranos, God of Storms
2 Kiora, the Crashing Wave
2 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner
2 Living End
2 Murderous Cut
2 Olivia Voldaren
2 Phyrexian Unlife
2 Pyrite Spellbomb
2 Raven’s Crime
2 Ray of Revelation
2 Remand
2 Stubborn Denial
2 Sundering Titan
2 Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas
2 Threads of Disloyalty
2 Thundermaw Hellkite
2 Unflinching Courage
2 Unified Will
2 Unravel the Aether
2 Vengeful Pharaoh
2 Vines of Vastwood
2 Viridian Corrupter
1 Annul
1 Aura of Silence
1 Blood Baron of Vizkopa
1 Boseiju, Who Shelters All
1 Brindle Boar
1 Courser of Kruphi
1 Cranial Extraction
1 Defense Grid
1 Deglamer
1 Detention Sphere
1 Disenchant
1 Distortion Strike
1 Dragon’s Claw
1 Echoing Truth
1 Elspeth, Sun’s Champion
1 Ethersworn Canonist
1 Faerie Macabre
1 Flame Slash
1 Galvanic Blast
1 Ghostly Prison
1 Go for the Throat
1 Grave Titan
1 Harmonize
1 Jace, Architect of Thought
1 Karn Liberated
1 Krosan Grip
1 Master of Etherium
1 Mindslaver
1 Orzhov Pontiff
1 Primeval Titan
1 Ratchet Bomb
1 Read the Bones
1 Reclamation Sage
1 Ruric Thar, the Unbowed
1 Siege Rhino
1 Sunlance
1 Surrak Dragonclaw
1 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
1 Valorous Stance
1 Vandalblast
1 Vedalken Shackles
1 Wall of Roots
1 Zombie Infestation

lightningboltrevised

Trends

Top 10 Mythics Top 10 Rares Top 10 Uncommons Top 10 Commons Top 10 Sideboard
Tarmogoyf* Verdant Catacombs Lingering Souls Lightning Bolt Stony Silence
Liliana of the Veil Windswept Heath Path to Exile Lava Spike Fulminator Mage
Mox Opal Siege Rhino Inquisition of Kozilek Rift Bolt Spellskite
Grove of the Burnwillows* Thoughtseize Boros Charm Serum Visions Nature’s Claim
Dark Confidant Abrupt Decay Monastery Swiftspear Treetop Village* Destructive Revelry
Voice of Resurgence Marsh Flats Might of Old Krosa Gitaxian Probe Molten Rain
Primeval Titan Scalding Tarn Skullcrack Searing Blaze Timely Reinforcements
Aether Vial* Noble Hierarch Become Immense Blighted Agent Ancient Grudge
Karn Liberated Inkmoth Nexus Tectonic Edge Glistener Elf Kor Firewalker
Windbrisk Heights* Wooded Foothills Remand Mutagenic Growth Twisted Image
Top 10 Mythics (Printed as Mythic only) Vines of Vastwood
Liliana of the Veil
Mox Opal
Dark Confidant
Voice of Resurgence
Primeval Titan
Karn Liberated
Wurmcoil Engine
Doran, the Siege Tower
Master of Waves
Geist of Saint Traft
Sorin, Solemn Visitor
(each had 8 copies)

*Printed at lower rarity, but should be considered as appropriate for the purposes of this analysis. Thus I listed the true mythic rare counts below and added the next runner up common Vines of Vastwood.

Liliana of the Veil

Looking at the trends for the top tens of each category, there are several undervalued cards that are seen. From mythics, we have Voice of Resurgence, Primeval Titan, Doran, the Siege Tower, and Master of Waves. I especially like Voice and Master here, as we aren’t expected to see them in MM2 and Master is currently very cheap for a mythic at around $3 each.

Inkmoth Nexus is undervalued at rare and is in the best position to increase in price, at least in the short term. Khans fetchlands Windswept Heath and Wooded Foothills are very close to their bottoms as well—since they are in Standard, they are poised to increase in price next year due to the Standard season cycle in addition to the Modern demand they are seeing.

Lingering Souls is very cheap right now at $0.30. However, it does have several printings which is going to suppress the nonfoil price. Foils still look good to me right now if you can get them on the cheap. Boros Charm, Skullcrack, and Become Immense non-foils could also be good targets. I believe that they also have casual demand to back up their tournament demand, so stocking up on these uncommons on the cheap could be a good play. In terms of foils, I like Boros Charm the most as it has a ton of cube potential.

Looking at commons, I’m not sure if there is anything I want to pick up that I already mentioned on Tuesday. Each has a decent chance of being included in Modern Masters 2015 and foils of all the noted commons are all pretty pricey already.

Sideboards of the wider field tell a completely different story. Stony Silence was the number-one sideboard card, and I really like foils and non-foils of this card. Destructive Revelry still saw a ton of play, but other notables are Timely Reinforcements and Twisted Image. Picking up extra copies of these cards, in both foil and non-foil, could see decent returns if the metagame from this point out reflects the decks seen at the top tables of the pro tour.

Other Notables

Scavenging Ooze – 83 copies is pretty huge, so I expect the Ooze to maintain value and then go up if not included in MM2.

Eidolon of the Great Revel – Tons of copies of this guy, and I will be looking to pick them up when Theros rotates from Standard.

Tasigur, the Golden Fang – Tasigur is the real deal in Modern, and with his Standard demand already cemented, he seems like he is going places. I’m going to keep a close eye on this card moving forward.

Grim Lavamancer – Lavamancer is back in action, so watch for any copies floating around that you can trade for.

Wild Defiance – Foils of this card already spiked, but non-foils at $2 or less seem appealing to me. Infect is a great deck in the new Modern format and I think players are going to want to try this card out in their decks.

Maelstrom Pulse – If not included in MM2, I feel that Pulse has nowhere to go but up in price. Pick up your copies if you like playing one of the new Abzan decks in the format.

Leyline of Sanctity – Though Wizards would be remiss to keep this Leyline out of MM2, if they do, I would expect a significant price bump.

Combust – Though not talked about that much, this sideboard card showed up pretty significantly and I would expect it to rise from the current $0.20 that it sits at if it remains a popular sideboard choice.

Obstinate Baloth – Another cheap sideboard card that is good in the format, the Baloth seems like a good pickup to me if you can get copies for $2 or less.

scavengingooze

Data!!!

The people have spoken and I have provided. Hopefully this presents a better picture to you all of what types of cards the pros were slinging at Pro Tour Fate Reforged.

Share Button

Jared Yost

Jared is a longtime Magic player who has been slinging cardboard since Odyssey block (back when creatures came into play). He was introduced to the financial side of Magic during Return to Ravnica block and hasn't looked back since. He is a resident of the VA area located just outside of DC. His favorite MTG formats include Limited, Legacy, and Commander. Regardless of format, he prefers making creature tokens. You can follow him on Twitter: @gildedgoblin.

Latest posts by Jared Yost (see all)

1 comment

1 ping

    • Sean on February 18, 2015 at 12:03 pm
    • Reply

    Great article, i really like the detailed analysis. The only comment is that scavenging ooze is not going to be in MM2 I belive because MM2 only goes up to New Phyrexia

  1. […] & #MtgoTinyLeaders"}]); was a Modern sideboard staple when Birthing Pod was legal, but has dipped in popularity_kmq.push(["trackClickOnOutboundLink","link_54ed37a947cfe","Article link clicked",{"Title":"dipped […]

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.