Hello, fellow speculators!
It’s the week of Grand Prix Richmond, destined to be the most-attended Constructed tournament ever, and the format is Modern. Registration is already shattering previous records for every past event except Grand Prix Las Vegas, the Modern Masters Limited GP. I don’t know about you, but it seems to me that Modern is getting more hype than ever in recent months.
And the hype translate into higher prices. [card]Scalding Tarn[/card] and [card]Misty Rainforest[/card] hitting $70 on the Star City Games buylist is just the beginning. We can reasonably expect Modern staples to all climb as we draw closer to the Modern PTQ season. Players will need cards, and the demand will keep the prices inflated until the PTQ season is over.
So as players are gearing up their pet decks, their rogue brews, and decks built to the metagame for Grand Prix Richmond, where’s the best place to look for figuring out the new Modern metagame? What better way than to look back to the pro tour that happened just a week ago!
I was really stoked when Wizards of the Coast decided to post the top decklists for the Modern portion of the pro tour at the link here. It’s not something that’s happened for ages for MTGO daily event results, due to WotC fearing that players will use the data to solve the meta.
But now that we do have the data, let’s have some fun with it.
Meta Analysis
Top 50 Most-Played Creatures:
| Rank (PT) | Rank (MTGO) | Deviation | Card Name | # | Dominance |
|
1 |
1 |
0 |
SnapcasterMage |
94 |
21.17% |
|
2 |
3 |
1 |
Tarmogoyf |
88 |
19.82% |
|
3 |
2 |
-1 |
Spellskite |
82 |
18.47% |
|
4 |
4 |
0 |
KitchenFinks |
76 |
17.12% |
|
5 |
6 |
1 |
NobleHierarch |
69 |
15.54% |
|
6 |
7 |
1 |
ScavengingOoze |
61 |
13.74% |
|
7 |
5 |
-2 |
BirdsofParadise |
58 |
13.06% |
|
8 |
45 |
37 |
FulminatorMage |
53 |
11.94% |
|
9 |
16 |
7 |
WildNacatl |
52 |
11.71% |
|
10 |
8 |
-2 |
DeceiverExarch |
50 |
11.26% |
|
11 |
15 |
4 |
VendilionClique |
45 |
10.14% |
|
12 |
22 |
10 |
VoiceofResurgence |
42 |
9.46% |
|
13 |
9 |
-4 |
RestorationAngel |
40 |
9.01% |
|
14 |
36 |
22 |
GoblinGuide |
37 |
8.33% |
|
15 |
50 |
35 |
GladecoverScout |
36 |
8.11% |
|
16 |
50 |
34 |
SlipperyBogle |
36 |
8.11% |
|
17 |
17 |
0 |
Pestermite |
35 |
7.88% |
|
18 |
27 |
9 |
SimianSpiritGuide |
32 |
7.21% |
|
19 |
50 |
31 |
GeistofSaintTraft |
31 |
6.98% |
|
20 |
19 |
-1 |
KirdApe |
30 |
6.76% |
|
21 |
37 |
16 |
DarkConfidant |
28 |
6.31% |
|
22 |
21 |
-1 |
Ghor-ClanRampager |
28 |
6.31% |
|
23 |
50 |
27 |
MonstrousCarabid |
28 |
6.31% |
|
24 |
50 |
26 |
StreetWraith |
28 |
6.31% |
|
25 |
50 |
25 |
WallofRoots |
28 |
6.31% |
|
26 |
50 |
24 |
DeadshotMinotaur |
27 |
6.08% |
|
27 |
50 |
23 |
Shriekmaw |
27 |
6.08% |
|
28 |
40 |
12 |
GoblinElectromancer |
26 |
5.86% |
|
29 |
50 |
21 |
IngotChewer |
26 |
5.86% |
|
30 |
35 |
5 |
MurderousRedcap |
23 |
5.18% |
|
31 |
25 |
-6 |
AvenMindcensor |
22 |
4.95% |
|
32 |
30 |
-2 |
ExperimentOne |
22 |
4.95% |
|
33 |
50 |
17 |
Thrun,theLastTroll |
21 |
4.73% |
|
34 |
13 |
-21 |
ArcboundRavager |
20 |
4.50% |
|
35 |
44 |
9 |
Kiki-Jiki,MirrorBreaker |
20 |
4.50% |
|
36 |
10 |
-26 |
Ornithopter |
20 |
4.50% |
|
37 |
11 |
-26 |
SignalPest |
20 |
4.50% |
|
38 |
12 |
-26 |
VaultSkirge |
20 |
4.50% |
|
39 |
20 |
-19 |
EtchedChampion |
19 |
4.28% |
|
40 |
50 |
10 |
KorSpiritdancer |
19 |
4.28% |
|
41 |
26 |
-15 |
LoamLion |
19 |
4.28% |
|
42 |
14 |
-28 |
SteelOverseer |
18 |
4.05% |
|
43 |
32 |
-11 |
QasaliPridemage |
17 |
3.83% |
|
44 |
50 |
6 |
FaerieMacabre |
16 |
3.60% |
|
45 |
49 |
4 |
Linvala,KeeperofSilence |
16 |
3.60% |
|
46 |
41 |
-5 |
PrimevalTitan |
16 |
3.60% |
|
47 |
24 |
-23 |
Sakura-TribeElder |
16 |
3.60% |
|
48 |
42 |
-6 |
GrimLavamancer |
15 |
3.38% |
|
49 |
29 |
-20 |
Memnite |
15 |
3.38% |
|
50 |
50 |
0 |
PaleRecluse |
15 |
3.38% |
Above you can see the top 50 most-played creatures among Modern pro tour decks that earned six wins or better. I compared these stats with the equivalent chart for MTGO events, which can be found on MTGGoldfish.com. The deviation calculates the difference between the rank for MTGGoldfish and the Pro Tour, calculated as the MTGGoldfish ranking number subtracted by the pro tour ranking number. To me, the higher the number, the better it is, because while the number for the pro tour is a static number, the same number on MTGGoldfish is a moving average, meaning that the MTGGoldfish data hasn’t had the time to fully adjust to the new meta.
Here are some interesting tidbits:
- Due to the success of [card]Living End[/card] at the pro tour (and also at the recent ChannelFireball 5K Modern event, where two Living Ends decks reached top 8), [card]Fulminator Mage[/card] got a bump from the 45th-most-played card in Modern to the 8th at the pro tour. That’s the biggest jump on the chart. The card is also played in variations of BGx, which also performed well at the pro tour.
- [card]Goblin Electromancer[/card] in Storm, [card]Goblin Guide[/card] in Burn, and [card]Gladecover Scout[/card] plus [card]Slippery Bogle[/card] in Bogles alll received a bump from being well-positioned in the meta. [card]Geist of Saint-Traft[/card] was played in a wide variety of successful decks, including but not limited to UWR, Tribal Zoo, and sideboard for Infect(!).
- [card]Shriekmaw[/card] saw widespread adoption in BGx, Melira Pod, and Living End. Noteworthy is that [card]Thrun, the Last Troll[/card] also placed in the top 50.
- Affinity underperformed compared to previous events, likely due to splash damage that [card]Anger of the Gods[/card] caused. [card]Sakura-Tribe Elder[/card] is the only card related to Scapeshift that made it onto the top 50 chart, and it placed much worse than expected.
Next, moving on to the top 50 most played spells:
Top 50 Most-Played Spells
| Rank (PT) | Rank (MTGO) | Deviation | Card Name | # | Dominance |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | LightningBolt | 217 | 48.87% |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | PathtoExile | 144 | 32.43% |
| 3 | 7 | 4 | LightningHelix | 97 | 21.85% |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | Thoughtseize | 95 | 21.40% |
| 5 | 3 | -2 | SerumVisions | 92 | 20.72% |
| 6 | 13 | 7 | AngeroftheGods | 87 | 19.59% |
| 7 | 5 | -2 | Remand | 61 | 13.74% |
| 8 | 6 | -2 | CrypticCommand | 56 | 12.61% |
| 9 | 8 | -1 | AncientGrudge | 56 | 12.61% |
| 10 | 21 | 11 | Grafdigger’sCage | 56 | 12.61% |
| 11 | 14 | 3 | SplinterTwin | 55 | 12.39% |
| 12 | 12 | 0 | StonySilence | 55 | 12.39% |
| 13 | 15 | 2 | BirthingPod | 52 | 11.71% |
| 14 | 25 | 11 | SleightofHand | 52 | 11.71% |
| 15 | 23 | 8 | AbruptDecay | 49 | 11.04% |
| 16 | 20 | 4 | Dismember | 49 | 11.04% |
| 17 | 10 | -7 | ManaLeak | 49 | 11.04% |
| 18 | 27 | 9 | InquisitionofKozilek | 39 | 8.78% |
| 19 | 26 | 7 | Nature’sClaim | 38 | 8.56% |
| 20 | 50 | 30 | DaybreakCoronet | 36 | 8.11% |
| 21 | 50 | 29 | EtherealArmor | 36 | 8.11% |
| 22 | 50 | 28 | Rancor | 36 | 8.11% |
| 23 | 11 | -12 | SpellSnare | 36 | 8.11% |
| 24 | 50 | 26 | SwanSong | 36 | 8.11% |
| 25 | 30 | 5 | ChordofCalling | 35 | 7.88% |
| 26 | 34 | 8 | RestinPeace | 35 | 7.88% |
| 27 | 50 | 23 | HyenaUmbra | 34 | 7.66% |
| 28 | 50 | 22 | SpiderUmbra | 34 | 7.66% |
| 29 | 32 | 3 | LeylineofSanctity | 33 | 7.43% |
| 30 | 40 | 10 | LilianaoftheVeil | 32 | 7.21% |
| 31 | 50 | 19 | ViolentOutburst | 32 | 7.21% |
| 32 | 24 | -8 | BloodMoon | 31 | 6.98% |
| 33 | 29 | -4 | GitaxianProbe | 31 | 6.98% |
| 34 | 9 | -25 | RelicofProgenitus | 30 | 6.76% |
| 35 | 50 | 15 | Batterskull | 29 | 6.53% |
| 36 | 47 | 11 | Dispel | 29 | 6.53% |
| 37 | 16 | -21 | Electrolyze | 29 | 6.53% |
| 38 | 50 | 12 | DemonicDread | 28 | 6.31% |
| 39 | 50 | 11 | Manamorphose | 28 | 6.31% |
| 40 | 50 | 10 | PyreticRitual | 28 | 6.31% |
| 41 | 50 | 9 | PyromancerAscension | 28 | 6.31% |
| 42 | 50 | 8 | Negate | 27 | 6.08% |
| 43 | 50 | 7 | BorosCharm | 26 | 5.86% |
| 44 | 36 | -8 | EngineeredExplosives | 26 | 5.86% |
| 45 | 50 | 5 | DesperateRitual | 25 | 5.63% |
| 46 | 46 | 0 | LingeringSouls | 25 | 5.63% |
| 47 | 50 | 3 | Shatterstorm | 25 | 5.63% |
| 48 | 50 | 2 | BeastWithin | 24 | 5.41% |
| 49 | 22 | -27 | Combust | 24 | 5.41% |
| 50 | 19 | -31 | MoxOpal | 24 | 5.41% |
- The biggest winners here are the spells belonging to Bogles, including but not limited to [card]Daybreak Coronet[/card], [card]Ethereal Armor[/card], and [card]Rancor[/card].
- A few surprising cards: [card]Grafdigger’s Cage[/card] is now one of the top 10 most-played cards in Modern and 22nd on the Legacy list. [card]Sleight of Hand[/card] saw a surprising amount of play due to Storm, [card]Ad Nauseam[/card], and variations of [card]Splinter Twin[/card] and UR Delver. Theros cards [card]Swan Song[/card] and [card]Anger of the Gods[/card] also made appearances here.
- Affinity seem to have underformed once again, with [card]Mox Opal[/card] taking a nose dive in its ranking. The number of [card]Electrolyze[/card] also took a beating due to its weakness against Zoo.
- [card]Batterskull[/card] makes its first Modern appearance here. I would expect it to be more prevalent in the future, as lifelink on a 4/4 vigilant body is very relevant in Modern, even if it can’t be cheated out like in Legacy.
Lastly, here are the top 50 most-played lands:
Top 50 Most-Played Lands
| Rank (PT) | Rank (MTGO) | Deviation | Card Name | # | Dominance |
|
1 |
2 |
1 |
MistyRainforest |
207 |
46.62% |
|
2 |
3 |
1 |
ScaldingTarn |
197 |
44.37% |
|
3 |
1 |
-2 |
Island |
183 |
41.22% |
|
4 |
7 |
3 |
VerdantCatacombs |
177 |
39.86% |
|
5 |
8 |
3 |
AridMesa |
133 |
29.95% |
|
6 |
5 |
-1 |
SteamVents |
97 |
21.85% |
|
7 |
6 |
-1 |
Forest |
91 |
20.50% |
|
8 |
4 |
-4 |
Mountain |
82 |
18.47% |
|
9 |
15 |
6 |
RazorvergeThicket |
71 |
15.99% |
|
10 |
12 |
2 |
TempleGarden |
71 |
15.99% |
|
11 |
11 |
0 |
StompingGround |
63 |
14.19% |
|
12 |
30 |
18 |
BlackcleaveCliffs |
60 |
13.51% |
|
13 |
22 |
9 |
OvergrownTomb |
52 |
11.71% |
|
14 |
27 |
13 |
SacredFoundry |
50 |
11.26% |
|
15 |
23 |
8 |
MarshFlats |
49 |
11.04% |
|
16 |
14 |
-2 |
CelestialColonnade |
47 |
10.59% |
|
17 |
13 |
-4 |
SulfurFalls |
47 |
10.59% |
|
18 |
28 |
10 |
HorizonCanopy |
43 |
9.68% |
|
19 |
16 |
-3 |
Swamp |
43 |
9.68% |
|
20 |
10 |
-10 |
TectonicEdge |
42 |
9.46% |
|
21 |
9 |
-12 |
Plains |
37 |
8.33% |
|
22 |
31 |
9 |
BloodCrypt |
35 |
7.88% |
|
23 |
21 |
-2 |
HallowedFountain |
35 |
7.88% |
|
24 |
20 |
-4 |
GavonyTownship |
33 |
7.43% |
|
25 |
42 |
17 |
GroveoftheBurnwillows |
29 |
6.53% |
|
26 |
17 |
-9 |
InkmothNexus |
28 |
6.31% |
|
27 |
18 |
-9 |
DarksteelCitadel |
23 |
5.18% |
|
28 |
36 |
8 |
GodlessShrine |
23 |
5.18% |
|
29 |
41 |
12 |
ShivanReef |
22 |
4.95% |
|
30 |
19 |
-11 |
BlinkmothNexus |
20 |
4.50% |
|
31 |
26 |
-5 |
Mutavault |
20 |
4.50% |
|
32 |
24 |
-8 |
Glimmervoid |
18 |
4.05% |
|
33 |
50 |
17 |
RagingRavine |
18 |
4.05% |
|
34 |
50 |
16 |
DryadArbor |
17 |
3.83% |
|
35 |
29 |
-6 |
BreedingPool |
16 |
3.60% |
|
36 |
35 |
-1 |
Valakut,theMoltenPinnacle |
14 |
3.15% |
|
37 |
25 |
-12 |
GhostQuarter |
13 |
2.93% |
|
38 |
45 |
7 |
TreetopVillage |
13 |
2.93% |
|
39 |
44 |
5 |
WoodlandCemetery |
13 |
2.93% |
|
40 |
50 |
10 |
TwilightMire |
12 |
2.70% |
|
41 |
33 |
-8 |
Urza’sMine |
12 |
2.70% |
|
42 |
32 |
-10 |
Urza’sPowerPlant |
12 |
2.70% |
|
43 |
34 |
-9 |
Urza’sTower |
12 |
2.70% |
|
44 |
50 |
6 |
CopperlineGorge |
11 |
2.48% |
|
45 |
38 |
-7 |
DarkslickShores |
10 |
2.25% |
|
46 |
50 |
4 |
CityofBrass |
8 |
1.80% |
|
47 |
37 |
-10 |
CreepingTarPit |
8 |
1.80% |
|
48 |
39 |
-9 |
GemstoneMine |
8 |
1.80% |
|
49 |
49 |
0 |
RiverofTears |
8 |
1.80% |
|
50 |
43 |
-7 |
SecludedGlen |
8 |
1.80% |
- Living End takes the spotlight here with [card]Dryad Arbor[/card], [card]Blackcleave Cliffs[/card], and [card]Blood Crypt[/card]. The surprising card here is [card]Raging Ravine[/card], which dropped out of the meta on MTGO but made an appearance here because of [card]Courser of Kruphix[/card] Jund.
- [card]Island[/card] is played more than twice as much as the next basic land, [card]Forest[/card]. Unsurprisingly, [card]Arid Mesa[/card] makes a jump here, but it is still far behind [card]Verdant Catacombs[/card].
- [card]Razorverge Thicket[/card] is ahead of [card]Blackcleave Cliffs[/card] now that Jund is less good, but if there’s anything that the Pro Tour tells us, it’s that Jund and BGx will still be top-level contenders.
The Decks
Let’s take a look at how the cards being played translated into the winning decks.
Day 1 to Day 2 Field
| Archetype | Day One | %Field | Day Two | %Field | %Change |
| Affinity |
22 |
6.18% |
12 |
5.24% |
-15.20% |
| Amulet |
5 |
1.40% |
4 |
1.75% |
24.37% |
| Blue Moon |
8 |
2.25% |
7 |
3.06% |
36.03% |
| Bogle |
24 |
6.74% |
18 |
7.86% |
16.59% |
| Burn |
15 |
4.21% |
6 |
2.62% |
-37.82% |
| Faerie |
6 |
1.69% |
3 |
1.31% |
-22.27% |
| Infect |
7 |
1.97% |
6 |
2.62% |
33.25% |
| Jund |
27 |
7.58% |
10 |
4.37% |
-42.42% |
| Kiki Pod |
10 |
2.81% |
7 |
3.06% |
8.82% |
| Living End |
14 |
3.93% |
12 |
5.24% |
33.25% |
| Melira Pod |
33 |
9.27% |
21 |
9.17% |
-1.07% |
| Merfolk |
8 |
2.25% |
7 |
3.06% |
36.03% |
| Scapeshift |
14 |
3.93% |
13 |
5.68% |
44.35% |
| Storm |
12 |
3.37% |
9 |
3.93% |
16.59% |
| Tron |
8 |
2.25% |
5 |
2.18% |
-2.84% |
| Twin |
45 |
12.64% |
23 |
10.04% |
-20.54% |
| UW Control |
5 |
1.40% |
3 |
1.31% |
-6.72% |
| UWR |
29 |
8.15% |
19 |
8.30% |
1.85% |
| Zoo |
64 |
17.98% |
44 |
19.21% |
6.88% |
| Other |
30 |
8.43% |
22 |
9.61% |
14.00% |
| Total |
356 |
100.00% |
229 |
100.00% |
0.00% |
From day one to day two, the decks that did well against the field are Blue Moon, Living End, Merfolk, and Scapeshift. Let’s dig further.
Day 2 to 18+ Field
| Archetype | 18+ Points | % Field | %Change |
| Affinity |
5 |
4.50% |
-5.78% |
| Amulet |
1 |
0.90% |
-43.47% |
| Blue Moon |
2 |
1.80% |
-35.39% |
| Bogle |
9 |
8.11% |
13.06% |
| Burn |
4 |
3.60% |
50.75% |
| Faerie |
2 |
1.80% |
50.75% |
| Infect |
2 |
1.80% |
-24.62% |
| Jund |
5 |
4.50% |
13.06% |
| Kiki Pod |
1 |
0.90% |
-67.70% |
| Living End |
7 |
6.31% |
31.91% |
| Melira Pod |
12 |
10.81% |
29.21% |
| Merfolk |
3 |
2.70% |
-3.09% |
| Scapeshift |
4 |
3.60% |
-30.42% |
| Storm |
7 |
6.31% |
75.88% |
| Tron |
2 |
1.80% |
-9.55% |
| Twin |
15 |
13.51% |
47.47% |
| UW Control |
1 |
0.90% |
-24.62% |
| UWR |
8 |
7.21% |
-4.79% |
| Zoo |
12 |
10.81% |
-38.33% |
| Other |
9 |
8.11% |
-7.49% |
| Total |
111 |
100.00% |
0.00% |
By the time we see the 18+-point decks, those with six or more wins in the Modern portion, the field dramatically shifts. Storm, Burn, Faeries, and Twin pull ahead as the clear winners.
Day 2 to 20+ Field
| Archetype | 20+ Points | % Field | %Change |
| Affinity |
4 |
6.56% |
37.16% |
| Amulet |
0 |
0.00% |
-100.00% |
| Blue Moon |
2 |
3.28% |
17.56% |
| Bogle |
5 |
8.20% |
14.30% |
| Burn |
2 |
3.28% |
37.16% |
| Faerie |
1 |
1.64% |
37.16% |
| Infect |
0 |
0.00% |
-100.00% |
| Jund |
2 |
3.28% |
-17.70% |
| Kiki Pod |
1 |
1.64% |
-41.22% |
| Living End |
2 |
3.28% |
-31.42% |
| Melira Pod |
3 |
4.92% |
-41.22% |
| Merfolk |
1 |
1.64% |
-41.22% |
| Scapeshift |
1 |
1.64% |
-68.35% |
| Storm |
4 |
6.56% |
82.88% |
| Tron |
1 |
1.64% |
-17.70% |
| Twin |
10 |
16.39% |
78.90% |
| UW Control |
1 |
1.64% |
37.16% |
| UWR |
7 |
11.48% |
51.60% |
| Zoo |
8 |
13.11% |
-25.19% |
| Other |
6 |
9.84% |
12.22% |
| Total |
61 |
100.00% |
0.00% |
Going beyond that, Storm and Twin remain solid. It’s not until you get near top of the field that UWR begin to gain dominance over the field.
Day 2 to 22+ Field
| Archetype | 22+ Points | % Field | %Change |
| Affinity |
1 |
2.86% |
-40.24% |
| Amulet |
0 |
0.00% |
-100.00% |
| Blue Moon |
1 |
2.86% |
2.45% |
| Bogle |
3 |
8.57% |
19.52% |
| Burn |
2 |
5.71% |
139.05% |
| Faerie |
0 |
0.00% |
-100.00% |
| Infect |
0 |
0.00% |
-100.00% |
| Jund |
1 |
2.86% |
-28.29% |
| Kiki Pod |
1 |
2.86% |
2.45% |
| Living End |
1 |
2.86% |
-40.24% |
| Melira Pod |
3 |
8.57% |
2.45% |
| Merfolk |
1 |
2.86% |
2.45% |
| Scapeshift |
0 |
0.00% |
-100.00% |
| Storm |
3 |
8.57% |
139.05% |
| Tron |
0 |
0.00% |
-100.00% |
| Twin |
6 |
17.14% |
87.08% |
| UW Control |
0 |
0.00% |
-100.00% |
| UWR |
2 |
5.71% |
-24.51% |
| Zoo |
4 |
11.43% |
-34.81% |
| Other |
6 |
17.14% |
95.58% |
| Total |
35 |
100.00% |
0.00% |
Last but not least, at the 22+ point mark, Storm and Twin have both absolutely outperformed the field. Burn also makes an appearance here, as expected in a field without [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] for incidental life gain.
At the very top levels, Affinity underperformed, as did Living End, partially due to the decks’ inconsistencies. I would expect future Affinity builds to be more of the burn variant played by Mary Jacobson at the Channel FireBall 5K.
Interestingly enough, at the top of the field, the section “Other” actually performed very well. The decks under the section that achieved 22+ points are: two Ad Nauseam, two BG Obliterator, one Gifts, and one Jund. BGx variants definitely have a say in the new meta, and if combo becomes more of a factor going forward, which seems likely given the strength of Splinter Twin and Storm, then BGx will establish a strong foothold in the new meta to keep all the combo and shenanigans in check. Faeries will likely fill a similar role, given that it’s strong against combo and control yet weak to aggro.
Ad Nauseam is a rogue deck that is largely not acknowledged on paper, but it’s definitely near or at tier one based on results on MTGO, where it has secured as many daily event spots as the likes of Jund and Scapeshift. The deck can go off at instant speed with [card]Pact of Negation[/card] backup, which a good number of decks just can’t interact with.
Speculation Corner
What’s the point of all the data if it doesn’t point us toward anything?
[card]Grafdigger’s Cage[/card] look to be a strong pickup despite being a sideboard-only card. You can pick it up for less than $2, and it’s already over $3 on MTGO. It’s in the top 10 most-played spells in Modern, which is absolutely insane for a sideboard card. The current spread is only 22%.
I would speculate on the Ad Nauseam deck. [card]Ad Nauseam[/card] is heavily targeted already and foil copies are mostly out of stock, so I wouldn’t touch those. [card]Lotus Bloom[/card] and [card]Angel’s Grace[/card] have both had reprints, but [card]Phyrexian Unlife[/card] is largely untouched. If someone were to speculate on the deck, I would start there.
As powerful as Storm is in the format, I wouldn’t speculate on it at the moment. Everyone points to it as the most powerful deck, ignoring the fact that the successful pilots of Storm, Jon Finkel, Kai Budde, Ari Lax, Tom Martell, and Andrew Shrout, among others, are some of the best at the game and playing the deck. It’s also a deck that’s easy to hate out with sideboard cards like [card]Rest in Peace[/card] or mainboard cards like [card]Thalia, Guardian of Thraben[/card]. The results are reflected at the Channel Fireball Modern 5K: despite the strong showings, Storm did not top eight at the event.
[card]Fulminator Mage[/card] is likely to see a reprint in FTV: Annihilation, but until then, the prices will continue to trend upward. It’s one of the top 10 most-played creatures in Modern, and its strength is backed by Jund, BGx, and Living End, all of which are decks that are still top dogs. I wouldn’t recommend buying into the card, but trading for it seems like a solid option.
[card]Vendilion Clique[/card] and [card]Liliana of the Veil[/card] seem underpriced right now. They both have low spreads, 23% and 26% respectively, and the opportunity to go up. Everyone wants to trade for them on Deckbox, but no one wants to trade them away. A buyout for [card]Vendilion Clique[/card] seem imminent. TCGplayer now has only 59 vendor listings despite the card having three different printings.
[card]Thrun, the Last Troll[/card], is also an option now that Zoo will be less of a factor going forward. Equip any sword to it and go to town! It’s a mythic from a small set, and it’s been at $16 before. The spread is only 18%. It’s rare to ever find spreads that low.
Do you see anything in all the data that I missed? What are your picks from the Pro Tour? Share your specs!
See below for the download links to the excel sheets.
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