Author

About the Author
@fyawm     -     Email     -     Articles Tim Enmou Gao is a writer for Brainstorm Brewery and resides in Los Angeles. A Modern-phile at heart, he is currently piloting a RUG Delver. You can reach Tim on Twitter or /u/fyawm on Reddit.

Cards to Keep an Eye on in Anticipation of a Banned List Update

With the banned and restricted list update looming in January, I’m surprised at the lack of discussion about it. Major changes could have a huge impact, especially on Modern.

The last time that the Modern banned list changed was right before Pro Tour Valencia last February. Preceding the unbanning of [card]Bitterblossom[/card] and [card]Wild Nacatl[/card] and ban of [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card], speculation was all over the internet. Whether it was Brian Kibler or Josh Utter-Leyton, everyone had a say in what they thought were the most reasonable unbanning(s) and banning(s), [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] being on the top of the list of potential bannings and [card]Wild Nacatl[/card] dying to be released. But it was to the surprise of everyone when [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] was actually banned and [card]Bitterblossom[/card], a card previously thought to be too powerful for Modern, was unbanned.

There is no good way of accurately predicting what will be banned or unbanned, but that doesn’t mean there weren’t clues along the way. Before the B&R announcements on February 3, prices were well in flux. Although bans do affect the format, the biggest potential money makers will be the unbans. Here are the graphs for the two unbans for the previous announcement.

Bitterblossom
[card]Bitterblossom[/card] showed the most obvious movement, though it was never clear whether the movement was the result of insider buyouts or speculation. [card]Bitterblossm[/card] jumped from about $18 to $31 a week before the announcement, and at the highest point, reached $70 before settling down.

Wild Nacatl
There was plenty of talk about a [card]Wild Nacatl[/card] unban, and I personally bought into the speculation. [card]Wild Nacatl[/card] also saw increases in price leading into its unbanning, most pronounced in the FNM version of the card. The prices also abated after it was discovered Zoo wasn’t really the deck to beat in the format.

Unbans

So the million-dollar question is, what are the potential unbans coming up this year, if any?

I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but here’s the only card that I picked up on my radar.

Bloodbraid Elf
There’s been a good amount of movement on FNM copies of [card]Bloodbraid Elf[/card], a card that has proved to be powerful in the Modern format. There is currently only one copy of FNM [card]Bloodbraid Elf[/card] on TCGPlayer at $9.25, and it’s not even near mint. Last time [card]Bloodbraid Elf[/card] was legal in Modern at Pro Tour Return to Ravnica, Jund was far and away the most popular deck in the format, sporting almost a third of the metagame. I would be shocked if [card]Bloodbraid Elf[/card] was unbanned, but then again, the B&R Announcement has been more about shaking up the format for the Modern Pro Tour rather than equalizing the field.

Ancestral Vision
In a world where [card]Treasure Cruise[/card] exists, [card]Ancestral Vision[/card] for all intents and purposes is safe to come out to the party. While the price has only gone down since its Duel Deck Anthology reprinting, [card]Ancestral Vision[/card] would give blue-based control decks a foothold in the metagame by providing them with a much needed source of card advantage. I don’t think there is a good money to be made speculating on [card]Ancestral Vision[/card], foil copies are already $55 on TCGPlayer, suggesting that speculators have already moved in to the card. While prices will certainly move in the case of an unban, there are plenty of copies available that it would be difficult to make money off the buylist.

Bans

Treasure Cruise
It should come as no surprise to anyone that [card]Treasure Cruise[/card] is on top of the potential banlist. It’s not so much that the card is overly powerful for the format, the Modern meta is quite able to adjust to any card, broken or not. I would attribute the [card]Chalice of the Void[/card]’s 180% growth and [card]Choke[/card]’s 700% growth to this one card. But the fact of the matter is that [card]Treasure Cruise[/card] has sufficiently warped the format such that it’s really come down to either playing [card]Treasure Cruise[/card] or finding the combination of cards to beat [card]Treasure Cruise[/card]. The fact that Burn is running [card]Treasure Cruise[/card] should be alarming, because the last time that Burn splashed a color, [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] was banned. There’s already a precedent for a card being banned in Modern while it’s still in Standard, so that argument is right out the window. If Wizards wanted to shake up the Modern format, banning [card]Treasure Cruise[/card] would be the way to do it.

It’s anyone’s guess what would happen if [card]Treasure Cruise[/card] were to go, but I would say that Pod would displace UR Delver as the deck to beat, which has already been the case on Magic Online. As is the case for decks that become public enemy number one, hate cards will invariably come around. I liked [card]Grafdigger’s Cage[/card] at below $2, and I still like [card]Grafdigger’s Cage[/card] at $3.50 especially in the case that [card]Treasure Cruise[/card] is banned and [card]Birthing Pod[/card] remains untouched. Will [card]Birthing Pod[/card] be banned? Eventually, but who knows when?

Dig Through Time
The next card is a lot less uncertain because an argument can be made for and against its banning. [card]Dig Through Time[/card] gives blue combo decks a fighting chance against [card]Thoughtseize[/card], [card]Inquisition of Kozilek[/card], and [card]Liliana of the Veil[/card]. It’s also not as degenerate as [card]Treasure Cruise[/card] as a draw engine, though arguably a much more powerful effect even at twice the mana cost. In the scenario that both draw engines are banned, [card]Steam Vents[/card] decks would once again be left to the whims of [card]Overgrown Tomb[/card] decks, and will presumably go back to the [card]Grim Lavamancer[/card] plan. In the case that [card]Treasure Cruise[/card] is the only ban, UR Delver will likely step back to its previous spot as a tier-two deck. Combo decks will definitely benefit from this shift in the metagame, particularly [card]Splinter Twin[/card] and [card]Scapeshift[/card], which have hugely benefited from the addition of [card]Dig Through Time[/card]. Because of this uneven exchange, if [card]Treasure Cruise[/card] is banned, I would expect [card]Dig Through Time[/card] to also go as it would otherwise pigeonhole blue decks to play the midrange, control, or combo game without elements of aggro or tempo.

Jeskai Ascendancy
There have been discussions on a [card]Jeskai Ascendancy[/card] ban, but I just don’t see it, especially in the case of a [card]Treasure Cruise[/card] and/or a [card]Dig Through Time[/card] ban, and I’ll leave it at that.

Whatever the B&R Announcement brings, I hope that the Modern metagame will become as engaging as it was when [card]Treasure Cruise[/card] and [card]Dig Through Time[/card] were first released into the format. Khans of Tarkir has done much to shake up the Modern format, and here’s to hoping that more goodies for eternal formats will come out of this block!

What’s in Your Spec Folder?

The MTG finance market is ever shifting.

If nothing else, it is one where you need to evaluate and re-evaluate cards in an ever-changing environment. It’s also one where no one really knows what they’re talking about, myself included.

An example straight from Reddit a month ago here:

Geist

Sometimes the experts make the wrong calls and everyone follows along. Corbin liked [card]Geist of Saint Traft[/card], and I suggested [card]Vengevine[/card] as an aside. And we were both wrong. [card]Geist of Saint Traft[/card] had a lot going for it at a time when the new Modern meta was still developing, but now it’s not even in the top 50 most played creatures in Modern. Are the prices going to climb back up? Eventually. It’s a mythic rare with hexproof. But for the time being, there’s some space for it to settle before casual demand picks it right back up.

Sometimes even with the best information, you can’t know where the prices will go. That’s why I thought it would be good to track my own buys and see how I did.

Accountability

Because the market is unstable, it’s important to keep track of the cards that you’ve bought and the prices you bought them at. I figured I would write an article to look at all my speculative purchases for MTG starting from January of this year on TCGplayer. It’s easy to call out others because it’s easy to remember the mistakes of others, but much harder to call out yourself.

I don’t speculate heavily, and for the cards I do go in on, I usually don’t go much more than $100. I hope to also provide some analysis on why I picked up each specific card, as well my future plans with them all. All prices listed include shipping. I chose to use TCG low prices to more accurately reflect prices copies can be sold.

So How Did I Do?

January 10: 28 copies at $2.81 each, 5 foil copies at $6.49 each ($3.00/$5.80 TCGplayer low)

Image

I bought this card because of the tight spread of 18% and because it was one of the top 20 most played cards in EDH at the time. Prices have gone up steadily since then, although it hasn’t doubled like some Modern and Legacy cards have during the same time period. Interestingly enough, foil prices have barely moved since then, despite it being a casual/EDH card. The opportunity cost is quite high for going into casual cards over Modern cards, but since buylist prices are now higher than my buy price, I can’t complain either. I plan on buylisting for profit sometime next year before Modern Masters 2, where the card might potentially be reprinted.

 

 January 14: 28 copies at $1.01 each ($5.42 TCG low)

WildNacatl

This spec more than quintupled immediately after [card]Wild Nacatl[/card] was unbanned. I don’t have much to say here other than sometimes you just get lucky. I sold each playset between $5 and $10 per copy and traded away the last playset to a Zoo player.

 

January 21: 3 foil copies at $16.80 each ($34.00 TCG low)

ThaliaGuardianOfThraben

I originally bought this card when [card]Spirit of the Labyrinth[/card] was spoiled for Legacy, but the card went up because GW Hate Bears in is now the fifth most-played archetype in Modern. Sometimes you’re totally wrong and get rewarded anyway. [card]Thalia, Guardian of Thraben[/card], is a long-term hold because of her Modern and Legacy applicability.

 

February 7 – 11: 4 foil copies at $27.71 each ($42.99 TCG low)

AbruptDecay

Have you caught on that I like foils and promos yet? [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] was banned in Modern, and its foils were still more than twice the price of [card]Abrupt Decay[/card] at the time. That just seemed wrong to me. [card]Abrupt Decay[/card] is one of the top 10 most played cards in Legacy, so I figured that the foil prices have more room to grow. This card is a long-term hold.

 

February 18: 34 copies at $2.46 each ($4.39 TCG low)

Image (1)

I liked [card]Past in Flames[/card] a lot going into Pro Tour Valencia, but I don’t like having to hold the card right now. Although the price has more than doubled since I bought them, copies are near impossible to move. I’m glad that I buylisted 20 copies for $4.15 when I did, but I’m still holding onto extra copies until GP Minneapolis gains traction. The 166 vendor listings on TCGplayer suggest that I’ll likely be holding these copies for a while, at least until buylist prices go back up again.

 

March 1 – 3: 38 copies at $1.72 each ($1.55 TCG low)

Image (2)

I liked [card]Grafdigger’s Cage[/card] a lot after going through my analysis here. The card saw lots of play at Pro Tour Valencia, and it’s one of the top 25 most played cards in Legacy. [card]Grafdigger’s Cage[/card] is narrow enough that it doesn’t need to be reprinted, yet powerful enough that it stops multiple strategies, including the best creature in Modern, [card]Snapcaster Mage[/card]. I can see it being double digits by next year if there are no major changes in the Modern or Legacy metagame, despite it being just a sideboard card. I see it as a hold it until that time.

 

March 5: 8 copies at $8.49 each ($7.99 TCG low)

Image (4)

[card]Thrun, the Last Troll[/card] is a house in Modern against control decks, which have no real way to interact with it outside of [card]Wrath of God[/card] and [card]Hallowed Burial[/card]. Because two of the top decks in Modern, Melira Pod and RUG Twin, both employed a copy in the sideboard, and it’s a mythic rare from a small set that has seen higher prices before, I figured it was a no-brainer, especially with the spread at the time under 20%. I plan on holding these copies until Modern PTQ season and selling into buylist, for loss or profit, to free up capital.

 

March 19: 23 copies at $0.44 each ($0.19 TCG low)

Image (3)

In my defense, the buylist price was $0.40 per card at the time I bought it! I remember seeing it at closer to $1 last time I checked months prior, so spending $10 on a purely casual card seemed like a good call. The fact that it wasn’t banned at announcements was a good sign to me, even though it’s the culprit of a great deal of mischief and infinite combos. It’s cheap, and I don’t mind holding it for the time being.

Final Thoughts

With the entire Modern market up 38% and the Legacy market up 42% since the beginning of the year, it’s not hard to pick a card and double up with it. It helps to look up buylist prices and know what cards are being played in which formats, but a lot of the changes in price can be attributed to luck if nothing else. The important lesson I’ve learned is to avoid Standard like the plague. Not only is the metagame more difficult to read, but rotation puts a time limit on how long you can hold your specs. I look to be holding my Modern specs into Modern season and sell them at peak hype if at all possible. As for the Legacy staples, I plan on holding them until next year and re-evaluating then.

I highly encourage all readers to take the time to write down your specs and see how you did. Which specs did well? Which specs performed well? Which specs didn’t? Every spec that you buy is a learning experience.

Do look at the announcements at PAX East that happened last weekend to see if there are any news about MTG Conspiracy, M15, or the fall set (this was written before PAX). Any information announced here, especially about potential fetch land or other reprints, will be valuable going forward.

Spoilers for Journey into Nyx have been more exciting than Born of the Gods, as there are already a couple cards that look to be relevant in eternal formats. I am a fan of [card]Dakra Mystic[/card], and [card]Eidolon of the Great Revel[/card] looks to be an eternal RDW staple.

Grand Prix Minneapolis is less than a month away, and the format is Modern. If you are looking to pick up any Modern staples that you’re missing, I would highly advise you to do so before the Grand Prix (but after the PAX announcement), given what happened to card prices leading up to Grand Prix Richmond. Prices have stabilized near the bottom, but it’s only a matter of time before Modern PTQ season pick the prices right back up.

Feel free to share your best and worst specs in the discussion below!

Legacy vs. Modern

Hello, fellow speculators!

After the biggest Constructed grand prix ever, GP Richmond, we’ve been a whole lot of winding down from card spikes. The market seems to be returning to the regular world of value investing. It sure has quieted down around here in the MTG finance world.

But the slower pace really gives us a time to examine some of the more recent events.

I still like all three of my calls from my last article: [card]Grafdigger’s Cage[/card], [card]Thrun, the Last Troll[/card], and [card]Phyrexian Unlife[/card]. [card]Grafdigger’s Cage[/card] and [card]Thrun, the Last Troll[/card] are cards you want to hold going into the Modern PTQ season, but [card]Phyrexian Unlife[/card] is an easy pump and dump.

But aside from all the self-promotion, I also wanted to more closely examine a question that has recently split the MTG finance community.

What is the Effect of Legacy on Current Card Prices?

To argue that Legacy is going to die is pointless. John Maynard is famously quoted saying, “In the long run, we are all dead.” It’s easy to say that the same is true for Legacy, but it will likely be the same for Modern ten years from now. Or maybe even Standard sometime in the future.

What we want to examine is what effect Legacy has on current card prices, not the future a year from now. Which format Star City Games will choose to support next year—Modern or Legacy—is anyone’s guess at this point, much less how Saturday and Sunday will be structured to support those formats. I like speculating, but I don’t speculate on baseless predictions.

Enough ink has been spilled over this. Let’s jump into some data.

Data

Match(Cuts)

Card Name Cut Reason
Abrupt Decay Standard
Aether Vial
Arid Mesa
Aven Mindcensor Uncommon
Batterskull
Blood Moon
Cavern of Souls
Creeping Tar Pit
Dark Confidant
Delver of Secrets Common
Ethersworn Canonist
Flickerwisp Uncommon
Forest Basic
Gemstone Mine Common
Gitaxian Probe Common
Goblin Guide
Grafdigger’s Cage Recent
Horizon Canopy
Inkmoth Nexus
Island Basic
Lightning Bolt Common
Liliana of the Veil
Marsh Flats
Misty Rainforest
Mountain Basic
Mutavault Standard
Noble Hierarch
Plains Basic
Relic of Progenitus Uncommon
Scalding Tarn
Simian Spirit Guide Common
Snapcaster Mage
Spell Pierce Common
Stomping Ground Standard
Swamp Basic
Tarmogoyf
Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
Thoughtseize Standard
Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle
Vendilion Clique
Verdant Catacombs

Above is a list of 40 cards that are commonly played in both Modern and Legacy accordingly to MTG Goldfish. The chart above is based on a comparison between the top 50 spells, top 50 creatures, and top 50 lands in both formats. Cards were chosen across the two formats to control for the differences in supply and prices of the cards. Based on the list, a few of the cards have been taken out due to availability (common) or influence from other formats (Standard). I’ve also chosen to take out [card]Grafdigger’s Cage[/card] because its prices doesn’t reflect its playability due to it being a recent printing and the myth that sideboard cards should be worth less (see [card]Spellskite[/card] and [card]Threads of Disloyalty[/card]).

Match(Final)

Card Name Modern Legacy Price
Aether Vial

7.53%

12.32%

$18.49

Arid Mesa

10.78%

5.25%

$46.84

Batterskull

4.91%

6.34%

$21.49

Blood Moon

8.28%

6.16%

$10.84

Cavern of Souls

3.25%

5.25%

$14.96

Creeping Tar Pit

1.98%

4.53%

$8.75

Dark Confidant

6.66%

8.70%

$65.00

Ethersworn Canonist

4.79%

6.70%

$2.96

Goblin Guide

3.65%

3.26%

$10.00

Horizon Canopy

3.76%

2.36%

$28.49

Inkmoth Nexus

11.09%

1.45%

$9.00

Liliana of the Veil

7.77%

17.30%

$61.64

Marsh Flats

8.04%

10.87%

$40.24

Misty Rainforest

43.34%

23.28%

$74.90

Noble Hierarch

12.24%

1.81%

$36.95

Scalding Tarn

32.96%

27.99%

$76.00

Snapcaster Mage

27.30%

6.88%

$27.25

Tarmogoyf

17.59%

18.12%

$165.00

Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

3.88%

9.42%

$5.49

Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle

3.25%

1.09%

$1.37

Vendilion Clique

8.24%

12.05%

$53.14

Verdant Catacombs

23.02%

22.37%

$47.99

Above is the final list of cards that play in both Legacy and Modern, the respective amount of play in each format, and the lowest listed TCGplayer prices based on data from MetaMox.

Next, I did a regression on Excel comparing each format’s playability as a predictor of price. Feel free to skip to the conclusion section if you’re not interested in the numbers.

Result(Both)

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.649513678

R Square

0.421868018

Adjusted R Square

0.36101202

Standard Error

29.63703948

Observations

22

 

ANOVA

 

df

SS

MS

F

Significance F

Regression

2

12177.91239

6088.956195

6.932233974

0.005486008

Residual

19

16688.72807

878.3541089

Total

21

28866.64046

 

 

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Intercept

6.696302336

10.45167841

0.640691579

0.529375415

X Variable 1

27.64720683

85.57048402

0.323092795

0.750153757

X Variable 2

285.3216566

121.4092381

2.35008193

0.029726643

Something amazing just happened. Allow me to explain.

The equation that the Excel equation calculated for the price of a card is as follows:

Price = $27.647X%Modern + $285.322X%Legacy + $6.70

What does this mean? It means that from a purely price point of view, for every 1% more play that a card sees in Modern, it translates to a $0.28 higher price, while for every 1%  more play that a card sees in Legacy, it translates to a $2.85 higher price.

That is insane! Legacy playability has more than 10 times the effect on price!

Let’s make sure the other statistical variable checks out. The R-square value of 0.422 means that about 42% of the variance in price can be explained by the variance in the playability in the two formats. While 42% isn’t a very high number, it’s not bad either.

What if we isolate the X-variable by format?

Result(Modern):

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.503803211

R Square

0.253817676

Adjusted R Square

0.21650856

Standard Error

32.81750819

Observations

22

 

ANOVA

 

df

SS

MS

F

Regression

1

7326.863589

7326.863589

6.803100732

Residual

20

21539.77687

1076.988843

Total

21

28866.64046

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat P-value
Intercept

17.69553437

10.34801366

1.710041652 0.102728117
X Variable 1

172.0295088

65.9552694

2.608275433 0.016822964

 

Result(Legacy):

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.647063885

R Square

0.418691671

Adjusted R Square

0.389626254

Standard Error

28.96585795

Observations

22

 

ANOVA

 

df

SS

MS

F

Significance F

Regression

1

12086.22192

12086.22192

14.40514955

0.001134606

Residual

20

16780.41854

839.0209268

Total

21

28866.64046

 

 

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Intercept

7.159058199

10.11861304

0.707513784

0.487410668

X Variable 1

313.4851146

82.5958141

3.795411644

0.001134606

Legacy is still a much better fit based on the R-squared value, .254 compared to .419. The fact the R squared value only a hair less than the multiple regression of Modern playability and Legacy playability suggest that adding Modern playability to the regression model might not be helpful at all.

Interpretation

As with all things statistics, you should take these numbers with a grain of salt. This analysis in particular should be taken with a boatload of salt. Here’s why.

The regression that Excel attempted is a best-fit regression. That means the difference between Modern being the factor with the larger coefficient might not be that different from Legacy being the factor with the larger coefficient.

While we can assume a normal distribution under the Central Limit Theorem despite there only being 21 total observations, it’s not a strong case.

Result(Both):

 

Coefficients

Standard Error

Lower 95%

Upper 95.0%

Intercept

6.696302336

10.45167841

-15.17931198

28.57191665

X Variable 1

27.64720683

85.57048402

-151.4538746

206.7482882

X Variable 2

285.3216566

121.4092381

31.20920081

539.4341125

The lack of observations create a huge variance for the 95% confidence interval, where the true coefficient for X%Modern is likely a number between -$151.45 and $206.75 and X%Legacy is a number between $31.21 and $539.43. We really have no idea if we have anywhere close to the real number!

Conclusion

I would argue that for a given Modern-playable card, its playability in Legacy will be the biggest factor in its price. The conclusion makes intuitive sense. The data set began with cards playable in Modern, and the differences in price can be attributed to how playable those cards are in Legacy. Think [card]Thalia, Guardian of Thraben[/card], which sees minimal play in Modern, but because of its playability in Legacy, has seen its price recently jump from $3 to $7.

Speculation Corner

Will anyone please come up with a better name for this section? Hit me up with your suggestions!

[card]Steam Vents[/card] is already at a 25% spread due to its playability in Modern, and it sees close to zero play in Standard. I would target it in trades and buy into copies if you have additional capital. It’s the third-most-played non-basic land in Modern behind [card]Scalding Tarn[/card] and [card]Misty Rainforest[/card], and there’s always money to be made on the top dogs.

I’ve been calling [card]Grafdigger’s Cage[/card] and I will call it again. By all metrics, the card is massively underpriced. Obviously the supply is what’s stopping the price of the card in its tracks. Short of a ban on [card]Chord of Calling[/card]—that is, a huge metagame shift in Modern—[card]Grafdigger’s Cage[/card] will easily be $10 by next year. The card is also on the top of the list on the thread here, and the Brainstorm Brewery podcast has called the card multiple times. Not many cards on the Modern cards list also see massive Legacy play that isn’t already $10, and the fact it’s already a $20 foil means that it’s not your ordinary sideboard card.

Lastly, [card]Ethersworn Canonist[/card] looks to be a good pickup from a theoretical perspective. It sees cross-format play, and the spread for the MMA copy is only 15%. It’s not a card you would expect because it’s not a sexy card like [card]Thalia, Guardian of Thraben[/card], but it sees slightly less play in Legacy and slightly more play in Modern. People don’t give nearly as much respect to sideboard cards as they should—until all the supply runs dry, that is.

Until next time! Stay liquid and sharp, my friends.

Closing

I’ve provided an honest attempt at using regressions to interpret MTG finance data, and it’s my hope that others who are better equipped and knowledgeable with economics will build on my efforts. I apologize in advance if I’ve made any newbish errors and misinterpreted any part of it—if I only learned anything from my econometrics class! If others would like to combine efforts, I would be happy to offer my help to advance the public’s knowledge of MTG finance trends.

Please see below for the download links to the excel sheets.

Legacy vs. Modern

Pro Tour Born of the Gods: Modern Meta Analysis

Hello, fellow speculators!

It’s the week of Grand Prix Richmond, destined to be the most-attended Constructed tournament ever, and the format is Modern. Registration is already shattering previous records for every past event except Grand Prix Las Vegas, the Modern Masters Limited GP. I don’t know about you, but it seems to me that Modern is getting more hype than ever in recent months.

And the hype translate into higher prices. [card]Scalding Tarn[/card] and [card]Misty Rainforest[/card] hitting $70 on the Star City Games buylist is just the beginning. We can reasonably expect Modern staples to all climb as we draw closer to the Modern PTQ season. Players will need cards, and the demand will keep the prices inflated until the PTQ season is over.

So as players are gearing up their pet decks, their rogue brews, and decks built to the metagame for Grand Prix Richmond, where’s the best place to look for figuring out the new Modern metagame? What better way than to look back to the pro tour that happened just a week ago!

I was really stoked when Wizards of the Coast decided to post the top decklists for the Modern portion of the pro tour at the link here. It’s not something that’s happened for ages for MTGO daily event results, due to WotC fearing that players will use the data to solve the meta.

But now that we do have the data, let’s have some fun with it.

Meta Analysis

Top 50 Most-Played Creatures:

Rank (PT) Rank (MTGO) Deviation Card Name # Dominance

1

1

0

SnapcasterMage

94

21.17%

2

3

1

Tarmogoyf

88

19.82%

3

2

-1

Spellskite

82

18.47%

4

4

0

KitchenFinks

76

17.12%

5

6

1

NobleHierarch

69

15.54%

6

7

1

ScavengingOoze

61

13.74%

7

5

-2

BirdsofParadise

58

13.06%

8

45

37

FulminatorMage

53

11.94%

9

16

7

WildNacatl

52

11.71%

10

8

-2

DeceiverExarch

50

11.26%

11

15

4

VendilionClique

45

10.14%

12

22

10

VoiceofResurgence

42

9.46%

13

9

-4

RestorationAngel

40

9.01%

14

36

22

GoblinGuide

37

8.33%

15

50

35

GladecoverScout

36

8.11%

16

50

34

SlipperyBogle

36

8.11%

17

17

0

Pestermite

35

7.88%

18

27

9

SimianSpiritGuide

32

7.21%

19

50

31

GeistofSaintTraft

31

6.98%

20

19

-1

KirdApe

30

6.76%

21

37

16

DarkConfidant

28

6.31%

22

21

-1

Ghor-ClanRampager

28

6.31%

23

50

27

MonstrousCarabid

28

6.31%

24

50

26

StreetWraith

28

6.31%

25

50

25

WallofRoots

28

6.31%

26

50

24

DeadshotMinotaur

27

6.08%

27

50

23

Shriekmaw

27

6.08%

28

40

12

GoblinElectromancer

26

5.86%

29

50

21

IngotChewer

26

5.86%

30

35

5

MurderousRedcap

23

5.18%

31

25

-6

AvenMindcensor

22

4.95%

32

30

-2

ExperimentOne

22

4.95%

33

50

17

Thrun,theLastTroll

21

4.73%

34

13

-21

ArcboundRavager

20

4.50%

35

44

9

Kiki-Jiki,MirrorBreaker

20

4.50%

36

10

-26

Ornithopter

20

4.50%

37

11

-26

SignalPest

20

4.50%

38

12

-26

VaultSkirge

20

4.50%

39

20

-19

EtchedChampion

19

4.28%

40

50

10

KorSpiritdancer

19

4.28%

41

26

-15

LoamLion

19

4.28%

42

14

-28

SteelOverseer

18

4.05%

43

32

-11

QasaliPridemage

17

3.83%

44

50

6

FaerieMacabre

16

3.60%

45

49

4

Linvala,KeeperofSilence

16

3.60%

46

41

-5

PrimevalTitan

16

3.60%

47

24

-23

Sakura-TribeElder

16

3.60%

48

42

-6

GrimLavamancer

15

3.38%

49

29

-20

Memnite

15

3.38%

50

50

0

PaleRecluse

15

3.38%

Above you can see the top 50 most-played creatures among Modern pro tour decks that earned six wins or better. I compared these stats with the equivalent chart for MTGO events, which can be found on MTGGoldfish.com. The deviation calculates the difference between the rank for MTGGoldfish and the Pro Tour, calculated as the MTGGoldfish ranking number subtracted by the pro tour ranking number. To me, the higher the number, the better it is, because while the number for the pro tour is a static number, the same number on MTGGoldfish is a moving average, meaning that the MTGGoldfish data hasn’t had the time to fully adjust to the new meta.

Here are some interesting tidbits:

  1. Due to the success of [card]Living End[/card] at the pro tour (and also at the recent ChannelFireball 5K Modern event, where two Living Ends decks reached top 8), [card]Fulminator Mage[/card] got a bump from the 45th-most-played card in Modern to the 8th at the pro tour. That’s the biggest jump on the chart. The card is also played in variations of BGx, which also performed well at the pro tour.
  2. [card]Goblin Electromancer[/card] in Storm, [card]Goblin Guide[/card] in Burn, and [card]Gladecover Scout[/card] plus [card]Slippery Bogle[/card] in Bogles alll received a bump from being well-positioned in the meta. [card]Geist of Saint-Traft[/card] was played in a wide variety of successful decks, including but not limited to UWR, Tribal Zoo, and sideboard for Infect(!).
  3. [card]Shriekmaw[/card] saw widespread adoption in BGx, Melira Pod, and Living End. Noteworthy is that [card]Thrun, the Last Troll[/card] also placed in the top 50.
  4. Affinity underperformed compared to previous events, likely due to splash damage that [card]Anger of the Gods[/card] caused. [card]Sakura-Tribe Elder[/card] is the only card related to Scapeshift that made it onto the top 50 chart, and it placed much worse than expected.

Next, moving on to the top 50 most played spells:

Top 50 Most-Played Spells

Rank (PT) Rank (MTGO) Deviation Card Name # Dominance
1 1 0 LightningBolt 217 48.87%
2 2 0 PathtoExile 144 32.43%
3 7 4 LightningHelix 97 21.85%
4 4 0 Thoughtseize 95 21.40%
5 3 -2 SerumVisions 92 20.72%
6 13 7 AngeroftheGods 87 19.59%
7 5 -2 Remand 61 13.74%
8 6 -2 CrypticCommand 56 12.61%
9 8 -1 AncientGrudge 56 12.61%
10 21 11 Grafdigger’sCage 56 12.61%
11 14 3 SplinterTwin 55 12.39%
12 12 0 StonySilence 55 12.39%
13 15 2 BirthingPod 52 11.71%
14 25 11 SleightofHand 52 11.71%
15 23 8 AbruptDecay 49 11.04%
16 20 4 Dismember 49 11.04%
17 10 -7 ManaLeak 49 11.04%
18 27 9 InquisitionofKozilek 39 8.78%
19 26 7 Nature’sClaim 38 8.56%
20 50 30 DaybreakCoronet 36 8.11%
21 50 29 EtherealArmor 36 8.11%
22 50 28 Rancor 36 8.11%
23 11 -12 SpellSnare 36 8.11%
24 50 26 SwanSong 36 8.11%
25 30 5 ChordofCalling 35 7.88%
26 34 8 RestinPeace 35 7.88%
27 50 23 HyenaUmbra 34 7.66%
28 50 22 SpiderUmbra 34 7.66%
29 32 3 LeylineofSanctity 33 7.43%
30 40 10 LilianaoftheVeil 32 7.21%
31 50 19 ViolentOutburst 32 7.21%
32 24 -8 BloodMoon 31 6.98%
33 29 -4 GitaxianProbe 31 6.98%
34 9 -25 RelicofProgenitus 30 6.76%
35 50 15 Batterskull 29 6.53%
36 47 11 Dispel 29 6.53%
37 16 -21 Electrolyze 29 6.53%
38 50 12 DemonicDread 28 6.31%
39 50 11 Manamorphose 28 6.31%
40 50 10 PyreticRitual 28 6.31%
41 50 9 PyromancerAscension 28 6.31%
42 50 8 Negate 27 6.08%
43 50 7 BorosCharm 26 5.86%
44 36 -8 EngineeredExplosives 26 5.86%
45 50 5 DesperateRitual 25 5.63%
46 46 0 LingeringSouls 25 5.63%
47 50 3 Shatterstorm 25 5.63%
48 50 2 BeastWithin 24 5.41%
49 22 -27 Combust 24 5.41%
50 19 -31 MoxOpal 24 5.41%
  1. The biggest winners here are the spells belonging to Bogles, including but not limited to [card]Daybreak Coronet[/card], [card]Ethereal Armor[/card], and [card]Rancor[/card].
  2. A few surprising cards: [card]Grafdigger’s Cage[/card] is now one of the top 10 most-played cards in Modern and 22nd on the Legacy list. [card]Sleight of Hand[/card] saw a surprising amount of play due to Storm, [card]Ad Nauseam[/card], and variations of [card]Splinter Twin[/card] and UR Delver. Theros cards [card]Swan Song[/card] and [card]Anger of the Gods[/card] also made appearances here.
  3. Affinity seem to have underformed once again, with [card]Mox Opal[/card] taking a nose dive in its ranking. The number of [card]Electrolyze[/card] also took a beating due to its weakness against Zoo.
  4. [card]Batterskull[/card] makes its first Modern appearance here. I would expect it to be more prevalent in the future, as lifelink on a 4/4 vigilant body is very relevant in Modern, even if it can’t be cheated out like in Legacy.

Lastly, here are the top 50 most-played lands:

Top 50 Most-Played Lands

Rank (PT) Rank (MTGO) Deviation Card Name # Dominance

1

2

1

MistyRainforest

207

46.62%

2

3

1

ScaldingTarn

197

44.37%

3

1

-2

Island

183

41.22%

4

7

3

VerdantCatacombs

177

39.86%

5

8

3

AridMesa

133

29.95%

6

5

-1

SteamVents

97

21.85%

7

6

-1

Forest

91

20.50%

8

4

-4

Mountain

82

18.47%

9

15

6

RazorvergeThicket

71

15.99%

10

12

2

TempleGarden

71

15.99%

11

11

0

StompingGround

63

14.19%

12

30

18

BlackcleaveCliffs

60

13.51%

13

22

9

OvergrownTomb

52

11.71%

14

27

13

SacredFoundry

50

11.26%

15

23

8

MarshFlats

49

11.04%

16

14

-2

CelestialColonnade

47

10.59%

17

13

-4

SulfurFalls

47

10.59%

18

28

10

HorizonCanopy

43

9.68%

19

16

-3

Swamp

43

9.68%

20

10

-10

TectonicEdge

42

9.46%

21

9

-12

Plains

37

8.33%

22

31

9

BloodCrypt

35

7.88%

23

21

-2

HallowedFountain

35

7.88%

24

20

-4

GavonyTownship

33

7.43%

25

42

17

GroveoftheBurnwillows

29

6.53%

26

17

-9

InkmothNexus

28

6.31%

27

18

-9

DarksteelCitadel

23

5.18%

28

36

8

GodlessShrine

23

5.18%

29

41

12

ShivanReef

22

4.95%

30

19

-11

BlinkmothNexus

20

4.50%

31

26

-5

Mutavault

20

4.50%

32

24

-8

Glimmervoid

18

4.05%

33

50

17

RagingRavine

18

4.05%

34

50

16

DryadArbor

17

3.83%

35

29

-6

BreedingPool

16

3.60%

36

35

-1

Valakut,theMoltenPinnacle

14

3.15%

37

25

-12

GhostQuarter

13

2.93%

38

45

7

TreetopVillage

13

2.93%

39

44

5

WoodlandCemetery

13

2.93%

40

50

10

TwilightMire

12

2.70%

41

33

-8

Urza’sMine

12

2.70%

42

32

-10

Urza’sPowerPlant

12

2.70%

43

34

-9

Urza’sTower

12

2.70%

44

50

6

CopperlineGorge

11

2.48%

45

38

-7

DarkslickShores

10

2.25%

46

50

4

CityofBrass

8

1.80%

47

37

-10

CreepingTarPit

8

1.80%

48

39

-9

GemstoneMine

8

1.80%

49

49

0

RiverofTears

8

1.80%

50

43

-7

SecludedGlen

8

1.80%

  1. Living End takes the spotlight here with [card]Dryad Arbor[/card], [card]Blackcleave Cliffs[/card], and [card]Blood Crypt[/card]. The surprising card here is [card]Raging Ravine[/card], which dropped out of the meta on MTGO but made an appearance here because of [card]Courser of Kruphix[/card] Jund.
  2. [card]Island[/card] is played more than twice as much as the next basic land, [card]Forest[/card]. Unsurprisingly, [card]Arid Mesa[/card] makes a jump here, but it is still far behind [card]Verdant Catacombs[/card].
  3. [card]Razorverge Thicket[/card] is ahead of [card]Blackcleave Cliffs[/card] now that Jund is less good, but if there’s anything that the Pro Tour tells us, it’s that Jund and BGx will still be top-level contenders.

The Decks

Let’s take a look at how the cards being played translated into the winning decks.

Day 1 to Day 2 Field

Archetype Day One %Field Day Two %Field %Change
Affinity

22

6.18%

12

5.24%

-15.20%

Amulet

5

1.40%

4

1.75%

24.37%

Blue Moon

8

2.25%

7

3.06%

36.03%

Bogle

24

6.74%

18

7.86%

16.59%

Burn

15

4.21%

6

2.62%

-37.82%

Faerie

6

1.69%

3

1.31%

-22.27%

Infect

7

1.97%

6

2.62%

33.25%

Jund

27

7.58%

10

4.37%

-42.42%

Kiki Pod

10

2.81%

7

3.06%

8.82%

Living End

14

3.93%

12

5.24%

33.25%

Melira Pod

33

9.27%

21

9.17%

-1.07%

Merfolk

8

2.25%

7

3.06%

36.03%

Scapeshift

14

3.93%

13

5.68%

44.35%

Storm

12

3.37%

9

3.93%

16.59%

Tron

8

2.25%

5

2.18%

-2.84%

Twin

45

12.64%

23

10.04%

-20.54%

UW Control

5

1.40%

3

1.31%

-6.72%

UWR

29

8.15%

19

8.30%

1.85%

Zoo

64

17.98%

44

19.21%

6.88%

Other

30

8.43%

22

9.61%

14.00%

Total

356

100.00%

229

100.00%

0.00%

From day one to day two, the decks that did well against the field are Blue Moon, Living End, Merfolk, and Scapeshift. Let’s dig further.

 Day 2 to 18+ Field

Archetype 18+ Points % Field %Change
Affinity

5

4.50%

-5.78%

Amulet

1

0.90%

-43.47%

Blue Moon

2

1.80%

-35.39%

Bogle

9

8.11%

13.06%

Burn

4

3.60%

50.75%

Faerie

2

1.80%

50.75%

Infect

2

1.80%

-24.62%

Jund

5

4.50%

13.06%

Kiki Pod

1

0.90%

-67.70%

Living End

7

6.31%

31.91%

Melira Pod

12

10.81%

29.21%

Merfolk

3

2.70%

-3.09%

Scapeshift

4

3.60%

-30.42%

Storm

7

6.31%

75.88%

Tron

2

1.80%

-9.55%

Twin

15

13.51%

47.47%

UW Control

1

0.90%

-24.62%

UWR

8

7.21%

-4.79%

Zoo

12

10.81%

-38.33%

Other

9

8.11%

-7.49%

Total

111

100.00%

0.00%

By the time we see the 18+-point decks, those with six or more wins in the Modern portion, the field dramatically shifts. Storm, Burn, Faeries, and Twin pull ahead as the clear winners.

 Day 2 to 20+ Field

Archetype 20+ Points % Field %Change
Affinity

4

6.56%

37.16%

Amulet

0

0.00%

-100.00%

Blue Moon

2

3.28%

17.56%

Bogle

5

8.20%

14.30%

Burn

2

3.28%

37.16%

Faerie

1

1.64%

37.16%

Infect

0

0.00%

-100.00%

Jund

2

3.28%

-17.70%

Kiki Pod

1

1.64%

-41.22%

Living End

2

3.28%

-31.42%

Melira Pod

3

4.92%

-41.22%

Merfolk

1

1.64%

-41.22%

Scapeshift

1

1.64%

-68.35%

Storm

4

6.56%

82.88%

Tron

1

1.64%

-17.70%

Twin

10

16.39%

78.90%

UW Control

1

1.64%

37.16%

UWR

7

11.48%

51.60%

Zoo

8

13.11%

-25.19%

Other

6

9.84%

12.22%

Total

61

100.00%

0.00%

Going beyond that, Storm and Twin remain solid. It’s not until you get near top of the field that UWR begin to gain dominance over the field.

 Day 2 to 22+ Field

Archetype 22+ Points % Field %Change
Affinity

1

2.86%

-40.24%

Amulet

0

0.00%

-100.00%

Blue Moon

1

2.86%

2.45%

Bogle

3

8.57%

19.52%

Burn

2

5.71%

139.05%

Faerie

0

0.00%

-100.00%

Infect

0

0.00%

-100.00%

Jund

1

2.86%

-28.29%

Kiki Pod

1

2.86%

2.45%

Living End

1

2.86%

-40.24%

Melira Pod

3

8.57%

2.45%

Merfolk

1

2.86%

2.45%

Scapeshift

0

0.00%

-100.00%

Storm

3

8.57%

139.05%

Tron

0

0.00%

-100.00%

Twin

6

17.14%

87.08%

UW Control

0

0.00%

-100.00%

UWR

2

5.71%

-24.51%

Zoo

4

11.43%

-34.81%

Other

6

17.14%

95.58%

Total

35

100.00%

0.00%

Last but not least, at the 22+ point mark, Storm and Twin have both absolutely outperformed the field. Burn also makes an appearance here, as expected in a field without [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] for incidental life gain.

At the very top levels, Affinity underperformed, as did Living End, partially due to the decks’ inconsistencies. I would expect future Affinity builds to be more of the burn variant played by Mary Jacobson at the Channel FireBall 5K.

Interestingly enough, at the top of the field, the section “Other” actually performed very well. The decks under the section that achieved 22+ points are: two Ad Nauseam, two BG Obliterator, one Gifts, and one Jund. BGx variants definitely have a say in the new meta, and if combo becomes more of a factor going forward, which seems likely given the strength of Splinter Twin and Storm, then BGx will establish a strong foothold in the new meta to keep all the combo and shenanigans in check. Faeries will likely fill a similar role, given that it’s strong against combo and control yet weak to aggro.

Ad Nauseam is a rogue deck that is largely not acknowledged on paper, but it’s definitely near or at tier one based on results on MTGO, where it has secured as many daily event spots as the likes of Jund and Scapeshift. The deck can go off at instant speed with [card]Pact of Negation[/card] backup, which a good number of decks just can’t interact with.

Speculation Corner

What’s the point of all the data if it doesn’t point us toward anything?

[card]Grafdigger’s Cage[/card] look to be a strong pickup despite being a sideboard-only card. You can pick it up for less than $2, and it’s already over $3 on MTGO. It’s in the top 10 most-played spells in Modern, which is absolutely insane for a sideboard card. The current spread is only 22%.

I would speculate on the Ad Nauseam deck. [card]Ad Nauseam[/card] is heavily targeted already and foil copies are mostly out of stock, so I wouldn’t touch those. [card]Lotus Bloom[/card] and [card]Angel’s Grace[/card] have both had reprints, but [card]Phyrexian Unlife[/card] is largely untouched. If someone were to speculate on the deck, I would start there.

As powerful as Storm is in the format, I wouldn’t speculate on it at the moment. Everyone points to it as the most powerful deck, ignoring the fact that the successful pilots of Storm, Jon Finkel, Kai Budde, Ari Lax, Tom Martell, and Andrew Shrout, among others, are some of the best at the game and playing the deck. It’s also a deck that’s easy to hate out with sideboard cards like [card]Rest in Peace[/card] or mainboard cards like [card]Thalia, Guardian of Thraben[/card]. The results are reflected at the Channel Fireball Modern 5K: despite the strong showings, Storm did not top eight at the event.

[card]Fulminator Mage[/card] is likely to see a reprint in FTV: Annihilation, but until then, the prices will continue to trend upward. It’s one of the top 10 most-played creatures in Modern, and its strength is backed by Jund, BGx, and Living End, all of which are decks that are still top dogs. I wouldn’t recommend buying into the card, but trading for it seems like a solid option.

[card]Vendilion Clique[/card] and [card]Liliana of the Veil[/card] seem underpriced right now. They both have low spreads, 23% and 26% respectively, and the opportunity to go up. Everyone wants to trade for them on Deckbox, but no one wants to trade them away. A buyout for [card]Vendilion Clique[/card] seem imminent. TCGplayer now has only 59 vendor listings despite the card having three different printings.

[card]Thrun, the Last Troll[/card], is also an option now that Zoo will be less of a factor going forward. Equip any sword to it and go to town! It’s a mythic from a small set, and it’s been at $16 before. The spread is only 18%. It’s rare to ever find spreads that low.

Do you see anything in all the data that I missed? What are your picks from the Pro Tour? Share your specs!

See below for the download links to the excel sheets.

PT Valencia (2014) – Most Played

PT Valencia (2014) – Standings

Shot in the Dark at the New Modern

Buying season for Modern is here. Or long past, as some would like to say, as prices of perceived staples have already quadripled or more.

To say that there has been a cataclysmic shift in the Modern metagame due to the B&R announcements would be an understatement. Modern prices are shooting through the roof as speculation opportunities abound. The pro tour has yet to happen, but players have already begun to make their moves in getting into the archetypes they want to play, or the ones they think will do well.

But as speculators who are reluctant to stay on the sidelines, what are some of the possible changes that we are looking at?

Today, I’ll go over the current players in Modern, the up-and-coming players, and some of the less-playable decks, including guesstimates on what the effect of the banned list update will be. I will also name the speculation opportunities, if any, that may have emerged from the changes.

Affinity

Due to the introduction of [card]Bitterblossom[/card] as a tier-one contender, slower clocks and more attrition-based strategies have become worse in Affinity. [card]Etched Champion[/card] will remain as valid a card as ever, but [card]Thoughtcast[/card] might just be a bit slow. [card]Shrapnel Blast[/card] and [card]Galvanic Blast[/card] are looking like the better meta choice to punish life loss.

Speculation opportunities: I don’t see any real speculation opportunities here.

G/R Tron

Tron takes a huge hit in the new meta, being weak to both Zoo and Faeries. Mainboard [card]Relic of Progenitus[/card] is likely a plus due to the many graveyard strategies that will spawn. At the same time, [card]Pyroclasm[/card] is likely to be replaced by [card]Firespout[/card] because [card]Pyroclasm[/card] misses all of Zoo’s creatures.

Speculation opportunities: [card]Firespout[/card] is likely to be highly relevant in Modern, foil copes are already hovering around $5.

Melira Pod

Some argue that Melira Pod improved through the ban because half of its combo involved the graveyard, while others argued that it was already strong against [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] decks anyway. Either way, Melira looks to contend for tier-one status in the new meta because of key cards like [card]Kitchen Finks[/card] and [card]Voice of Resurgence[/card] that are well positioned against expected strategies.

Speculation opportunities: [card]Birthing Pod[/card] reached $10 earlier in the year, but since then NM copies have fallen back down to $7 on TCGPlayer. [card]Voice of Resurgence[/card] seems great in the new meta, there is no way that foil [card]Voice of Resurgence[/card], a third-set, barely-drafted mythic, should be much lower than foil [card]Snapcaster Mage[/card], a first-set, heavily-drafted rare, if the cards are only one block apart.

Kiki Pod

Unlike Melira Pod, Kiki Pod is not reliant on the graveyard to combo off, although it did benefit from [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] being banned since it still plays [card]Kitchen Finks[/card], [card]Murderous Redcap[/card], and [card]Glen Elendra Archmage[/card]. Not having to replace any cards in the deck is nice, and so is the option to Pod into [card]Magus of the Moon[/card].

Speculation opportunities: [card]Magus of the Moon[/card] looks to be a house against all the poor mana bases in Modern, and it will also prey on Faeries which lacks the [card]Polluted Delta[/card] to fetch for on-color basics. [card]Restoration Angel[/card]’s body will be much more relevant, as will be [card]Voice of Resurgence[/card] in the new Zoo/Faeries meta.

U/R Delver

Jeff Hoogland is optimistic about the future of this deck because of a suite of strong burn spells and the power boost that [card]Snapcaster Mage[/card] received due to the [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] ban. While control is likely to weaken due to the introduction of [card]Bitterblossom[/card], aggro is strengthened, which improves the position of tempo strategies.

Speculation opportunity: [card]Sword of Light and Shadow[/card] may become more relevant in the Modern meta if [card]Bitterblossom[/card] takes over the format, and decks playing it can benefit in mirror matches from the life gain and creature recursion.

Splinter Twin

Splinter Twin remains powerful because it can end the game at will, regardless of how many faeries tokens are on the other side of the board. Because of the boost to [card]Snapcaster Mage[/card], I can see both the tempo and the combo variant being successful.

Speculation opportunity: I am a huge fan of foil [card]Steam Vents[/card] and foil [card]Sulfur Falls[/card] for the long-term, both of which look to be mainstays in the Modern format. The price of [card]Threads of Disloyalty[/card] has already jumped.

B/W Tokens

Tokens is likely to become one of the new tier-one archetypes due to the power of [card]Bitterblossom[/card]. Coupled with cards like [card]Zealous Persecution[/card], [card]Intangible Virtue[/card], and [card]Auriok Champion[/card], the deck is very hard to take down early and will grind out wins over time.

Speculation opportunities: [card]Windbrisk Heights[/card] is way too cheap for a card in Lorwyn that will likely be played as 3-4 of. Do be wary to sell non-foils into any hype as they will most likely to be printed in the Modern Event Deck.

Merfolk

If Corbin Hosler is to be believed, Merfolk is still a viable strategy, although weak to variations of Zoo. [card]Threads of Disloyalty[/card] and [card]Kira, Great Glass-Spinner[/card] are strong out of the board. [card]Master of Waves[/card] will continue to be a powerhouse if left alone, and [card]Aether Vial[/card] is a strong way to get around any form of control.

Speculation opportunities: I think Corbin got them all.

U/W/R Midrange

I don’t like how the deck is positioned against [card]Bitterblossom[/card] decks. This deck relies on the opponent to make the first move, whereas the player with [card]Bitterblossom[/card] in play does not have to do anything to win the game. [card]Geist of Saint Traft[/card] just seems bad against Zoo and Faeries because of its 2/2 body, while [card]Restoration Ange[/card] is just big enough to stop all the creatures in Zoo and play around Faeries.

Speculation opportunities: [card]Restoration Angel[/card] looks to be on the rise due to its relevant body. [card]Geist of Saint Traft[/card] looks to be on the rise because of Bant and Tribal Zoo, although I don’t know how relevant it’ll be in Modern. Promo [card]Lightning Helix[/card] is a good pickup because of how many potential decks will be playing it.

U/W/R Control

As with all decks that cannot end games in a quick fashion, [card]Bitterblossom[/card] is likely to generate enough advantage over time to eventually overrun the other player. Control strategies have not been as successful in Modern due to the vast variety of decks, and I don’t expect the new format to be solved quickly. [card]Wall of Omens[/card] is awesome in the new meta against Zoo and Faeries, though.

Speculation opportunities: [card]Lightning Helix[/card] is critical for stabilizing; the promo version looks like a sure bet to double because the card is likely to be played in multiple decks. [card]Wall of Omens[/card] also has a promo that may be promising if the card becomes more relevant.

Jund/Junk

Losing both the card [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] and the efficacy of [card]Liliana of the Veil[/card] due to [card]Bitterblossom[/card] is a huge blow. That being said, [card]Abrupt Decay[/card] is now the best removal in Modern precisely for the reason that it deals with Faeries, Affinity, Tempo, and Zoo efficiently. [card]Tarmogoyf[/card] will also get a bump in power/toughness now that enchantments are likely to be played in a good number of Modern decks post-board ([card]Blood Moon[/card], [card]Threads of Disloyalty[/card], [card]Bitterblossom[/card]). The archetype is likely to remain a mainstay in Modern, although less dominant at the top tables compared to before the update.

Speculation opportunities: Foil [card]Abrupt Decay[/card] should not be worth less than foil [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] if it sees more play in both Modern and Legacy. Others would argue for [card]Scavenging Ooze[/cad], but if everyone is speculating on them, it’s probably not a good spec.

Scapeshift

[card]Firespout[/card] will likely be main-deckable in the new meta—either that or [card]Anger of the Gods[/card] to wipe out all the [card]Voice of Resurgence[/card]s and [card]Kitchen Finks[/card]. [card]Cavern of Souls[/card] may become more relevant

Speculation opportunities: [card]Boseiju, Who Shelters All[/card], may become the answer to the disruptions in Faeries. The supply is running low

Burn

I daresay that Burn might now be a legitimate tier-one archetype with [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] no longer being a card. Burn is also one of the few strategies that benefits from [card]Bitterblossom[/card] being widely adopted,

Speculation opportunities: Is there ever any speculation opportunity with Burn? Rhetorical question.

Living End

Losing public-enemy [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] bodes well for the deck, but [card]Spellstutter Sprite[/card] and [card]Remand[/card] keeps the deck in check. The fact that other graveyard strategies will rear their heads mean that there will be more sideboard cards dedicated against the graveyard. Based on consistency, the deck will likely be top-tier since it can also beat graveyard hate.

Speculation opportunities: I don’t see any speculation opportunities here.

Naya/Zoo

Domain Zoo is either the smaller version with [card]Kird Ape[/card], [card]Loam Lion[/card], and [card]Wild Nacatl[/card] or the bigger version with [card]Lingering Souls[/card] and/or [card]Geist of Saint Traft[/card]. Personally, I feel that the smaller version is better positioned because it is able to run more burn spells, which will likely be very effective in the new meta because of various cards that cause life loss. Naya is bigger than Zoo, but where it lacks in speed it makes it up in having a greater resilience to [card]Lightning Bolt[/card] and a more stable mana base.

Speculation opportunities: Promo [card]Lightning Helix[/card] appears yet again alongside [card]Voice of Resurgence.

U/R Storm

Storm is likely to make a return due to absence of [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card], which eliminates the need for [card]Lightning Bolt[/card] in the board. As Craig Wescoe said on his stream, Storm is one of Zoo’s worst matchup, and he was playing Small Zoo with a curve that stops at two.

Speculation opportunities: [card]Past in Flames[/card] is a mythic that has yet to make any movement.

Tin Fins

With [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] out of the way, half the enablers are more playable than before.

Speculation opportunities: [card]Goryo’s Vengeance[/card] can reasonably return to its previous peak at $15 and go on to do more if the deck performs well.

Dredgevine

Like it or not, Dredgevine will now be a real archetype, although a shaky one, due to its issues with consistency. While Dredgevine is better positioned against Faeries, Four-Color Gifts is better positioned against Zoo.

Speculation opportunities: Copies of [card]Vengevine[/card] are running low and will spike should the deck see any success, a likely scenario. Another card that is seemingly disappearing into thin air is [card]Bloodghast[/card], which is both a Vampire and a recurring creature.

Four-Color Gifts

Turn-three[card]Gifts Ungiven[/card] into turn-four [card]Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite[/card] is enough to win most games. However, the deck is weak to counter magic and [card]Path to Exile[/card]. Where it loses to disruption, though, it wins against aggro because of the ability to [card]Gifts Ungiven[/card] for four different wrath effects. You can bet that players will be brewing to break this card with insane card advantage, like the [card]Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas[/card] variant seen on Channel Fireball.

Speculation opportunities: [card]Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite[/card] has already risen substantially, but [card]Gifts Ungiven[/card] has remained at its previous level despite a rise on MTGO.

Infect

With Zoo and Faeries being a part of the meta, Infect will change quite a bit and likely run [card]Phyrexian Crusader[/card] in its 60 cards. Whether the deck will survive as an archetype is questionable, although I can see the mono-black version succeeding if Zoo becomes a major player in Modern.

Speculation opportunity: [card]Phyrexian Crusader[/card] seems like an absurd card against both Faeries and Zoo.

TL;DR: Link

Modern Overload

Shifting Metagame

Hello, fellow speculators!

Are you all looking forward to the prerelease this weekend? I know I’m not, as Born of the Gods has close to zero implications for Modern. As if it wasn’t bad enough that the prerelease is on Super Bowl weekend.

What everyone does care about is the upcoming Modern banned and restricted list changes that will be announced roughly a week after this article. The general gist among pros is that [card]Wild Nacatl[/card] and [card]Bitterblossom[/card] are the most likely to be unbanned, while [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] is the most likely to be on the chopping block. Keep in mind that this is nothing more than speculation at this point.

Enough talk about talk about the banned list, though, I’ve already covered the topic extensively in my previous article here. Let’s move on to the main topic of today’s discussion: the MTG finance metgame.

Shifting Metagame

I wanted to cover a topic that I’ve brought up on reddit, and it’s the idea that MTG Finance has a metagame.

What metagame, you say?

The current metagame is to bandwagon-buy cards that are being bought out. For example, one might buy when a card like [card]Summoner’s Egg[/card] is debuted in a Travis Woo brew or when the supply of a card dips below 100 vendor listings on TCGplayer.

Let’s look at the past month’s worth of specs that have spiked to make up the current MTG finance metagame.

Splinter Twin

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[card]Splinter Twin[/card] is a rare from a set released over three years ago. It is played as a four-of in a tier-one Modern deck. The card doubled over the course of a day from $5 to $10 and has stayed stable since, albeit at low supply of vendor listings. Going into Modern season, the card likely still has more room to grow if there’s yet another shortage on the internet.

 

Phyrexian Obliterator

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[card]Phyrexian Obliterator[/card] is a mythic rare from over two years ago that sees play in a popular Modern mono-black devotion brew as a two- or three-of. It is a casual favorite because making an opponent sacrifice permanents is dirty. The card spiked on two occasions, culminating in a doubling of price from about $14 to $28. Prices are falling overall because Mono-Black Devotion isn’t actually a competitive deck.

Genesis Wave

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[card]Genesis Wave[/card] is a rare that is three years old and played in Modern Green Devotion as a four-of win condition. The card also sees a good amount of EDH play according to MetaMox.com. Prices have actually gone up from spike levels of $5 to the current $6, suggesting that the demand for the card is real.

Birthing Pod

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[card]Birthing Pod[/card] is very similar to [card]Splinter Twin[/card] in that it’s a rare played in a tier-one Modern decks as a four-of. Likewise, it doubled from $5 to $10 overnight, albeit the price has given a little. I think this is because there is more supply, given that it’s a two-year-old card as opposed to a three-year-old card like [card]Splinter Twin[/card]. Also like [card]Splinter Twin[/card], there is more growth for the card so long as it’s not banned in Modern.

Summoner’s Egg

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[card]Summoner’s Egg[/card] is getting to the really shady territory in that it’s just seeing play in Travis Woo’s Modern brew as a four-of. Partly due to the price jump that [card]Disrupting Shoal[/card] saw, speculators didn’t want to miss out on another spike and bought the card out. Egg is now a $4 card, up from its previous $0.60 price. I don’t think the card is done dropping from its current price yet, because the deck isn’t any good.

Wurmcoil Engine

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[card]Wurmcoil Engine[/card] is a mythic rare from a set over three years old that is commonly played in Modern Tron as a three- or four-of. It also sees a fair amount of play in EDH. Its price has steadily gone up from under $10 at the beginning of 2013 to the current $23, and the card could go up even further during Modern season.

Coming Out Ahead

I hope that this review has struck a chord. If you want to actually come out ahead in MTG Finance, it’s about the fundamentals, not trying to bandwagon into hype. Just because the card goes up some 600%, like in the case of [card]Summoner’s Egg[/card], doesn’t mean that there’s money to be made. You have to find a buyer for the cards before you can sell.

Based on previous cards, there are some general inferences that can be drawn for future speculating.

  • If you haven’t read my colleague Brainstorm Brewery writer Anthony Capece’s article, Rare is the New Uncommon, I highly recommend reading it here. Mythic rare is a big deal because it is literally half the supply of rares. Even if there isn’t a great demand for a card, like in the case of [card]Phyrexian Obliterator[/card], it will likely at least maintain its price. If it’s a card that is a multi-format staple, like [card]Wurmcoil Engine[/card], there’s no telling where the price will settle.
  • On a similar note, supply reigns supreme over demand. Sure, demand might spike due to a new deck or brew, but demand is fickle. The card that everyone wants today is likely not going to be the card that everyone wants tomorrow. [card]Kami of the Crescent Moon[/card]’s price is going down so slowly because where in the world is someone supposed to find an eight-year-old card that never saw any play?
  • Cards that don’t become staples will go back down, albeit to levels higher than previous price points. [card]Genesis Wave[/card] was a huge deal on the day that it spiked, but how much profit was there to make on a card that sold at $5 at its highest point? Unless you were one of the first onto the card, getting in at the lowest point of $2, there was very little money to be made.
  • Market algorithms are constantly changing. I’m glad to be one of the first to have written about the number of TCG vendor listings as a way to predict future price spikes here. But nowadays cards are constantly flirting with 50 or fewer vendor listings. It’s time to go back to the fundamentals. Find the next gap in demand and supply. Buy into the next undervalued card that no one’s discovered yet and get it for cheap. When the price finally catches up, not due to hype, but actual demand, you’ll know that you made the right call (credit to Jason Alt for the concept). For me, that card is [card]Phyrexian Metamorph[/card] because of its massive EDH appeal and the tight buylist spread, despite seeing close to zero competitive play.

I hope that this article was informative on the most up-to-date info in the MTG finance world. I continue to be intrigued by the ever evolving nature of the metagame, where to think like the average person is to be behind.

Until next time!

Post Modern

I love Modern because of all the value.

Even though Modern is a format where everything is subject to reprint, in addition to the likely release of more Modern Masters sets, the prices of staples are still low. In the year 2013, [card]Splinter Twin[/card] doubled in the U.S. shortly after doubling in Europe; [card]Chord of Calling[/card], [card]Fulminator Mage[/card], and [card]Horizon Canopy[/card] all more than doubled due not being reprinted; and novel new competitors like [card]Disrupting Shoal[/card] quintupled overnight.

Even fringe cards like [card]Threads of Disloyalty[/card] and [card]Restore Balance[/card] saw a bump just because it’s Modern and it’ll see more and more players as the format becomes more popular. [card]Threads of Disloyalty[/card] jumped 50% just because it was seeing play in two tier-one decks, and [card]Restore Balance[/card] is up 200% since six months ago, even though it sees close to zero competitive play outside of popping up in dailies every now and then.

For Magic financiers, it’s a good idea to play Modern, just like it is to play EDH, another eternal format that has a lot of room for speculation. The value proposition for playing the format is there. If a card has already been hit by a reprint in Modern Masters, you can only expect the value to go up from here. While Legacy has more stability, Modern has more spikes in value due to price corrections. Staying up to date about the Modern meta-game will give you a huge leg up to get to the spikes before the news goes around.

Modern tournaments are also heating up. Grand Prix Antswerp marked the biggest Modern Grand Prix to date with 1601 players, a respectable number even compared to other formats. Being that Modern is an eternal format with cards that don’t rotate, we can only expect the growth rate to accelerate going forward. As players jump on the bandwagon, more and more players will want in on the ride. And unlike Legacy, Modern is a pro tour format, which means that even if Star City Games can ignore the format for the time being, it can’t ignore it forever.

Post Modern: Banned List

Being that we’re getting closer to banned list announcements, I thought I’d take a minute to talk about the topic. It seems to always create controversy no matter what circle I’m in. Wizards of the Coast has more or less consistently banned/unbanned a card in Modern every six months or so, and we’re due for another change in the format.

Originally, I intended to list all the cards that will stay on the banned list no matter what, but the list is so long that it would likely take up the whole article. The banned list is unnecessarily long so that Modern would be protected as a new format, but that gives it space for cards to be unbanned (see [card]Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle[/card]). Let’s talk about other cards that can (and should?) be unbanned.

[card]Ancestral Vision[/card]

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Modern doesn’t have any good cascade cards now that [card]Bloodbraid Elf[/card] is banned. The [card]Shardless Agent[/card] following a [card]Brainstorm[/card] into [card]Ancestral Vision[/card] wombo combo doesn’t exist in Modern. Control in Modern is severely lacking, and UWR Control is currently on its knees due to having bad matchups against all of the tier-one Modern decks except Affinity. Recently, UWR has turned into more of a midrange deck. It runs a variety of creatures because there aren’t enough good cards to make a pure control strategy viable. [card]Ancestral Vision[/card] may be a powerful card, but it doesn’t win the game on its own and it tends to be a dead draw later in the game. It’s also quite slow, because that the earliest it can go off is turn five, while Modern is a turn-four format.

[card]Dread Return[/card]

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Call me crazy, but I can see the argument for [card]Dread Return[/card] being unbanned to really shake up the format. Dredge is non-existent in Modern, in part because [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] is one of the most-played creatures in the format. Three creatures is a lot to sacrifice, and without [card]Narcomoeba[/card] and [card]Bridge from Below[/card], it’s just not happening on a regular basis. I would love to see more variety in Modern, even if it means playing against broken decks.

[card]Golgari Grave-Troll[/card]

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Speaking of Dredge, why not unban the best Dredge creature? While [card]Dread Return[/card] would be a risky unban since it enables more trippy plays, [card]Golgari Grave-Troll[/card] is the safer unban because it’s just an upgrade over the Dredge 5 alternative [card]Stinkweed Imp[/card]. I don’t see this and [card]Dread Return[/card] being unbanned at the same time, but rather one or the other. Because graveyard hate is readily available in Modern now that [card]Rest in Peace[/card], [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card], and [card]Scavenging Ooze[/card] have been introduced to the format, there are plenty of cards to keep graveyard strategies in check.

[card]Wild Nacatl[/card]

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The card that I’m most stoked about the possibility of being unbanned is [card]Wild Nacatl[/card]. It would introduce a Naya Zoo archetype into Modern, an exciting alternative to the only other existing aggro deck in Modern, Affinity. [card]Wild Nacatl[/card] is a card that is strong but not broken, because like all fair creatures, it dies to [card]Lightning Bolt[/card]. The reason that it’s on the banned list is because it limits variety in aggro decks, but being that aggro in Modern is as limited as it already is, I don’t see the reason for it to stay on the banned list.

Kibler

So says the man who shook up MTGO and nearly caused an apocalypse. Could this be another shift of public opinion in the making? Love or hate the guy, apparently Brian Kibler’s opinions are the only ones that matter in the realm of Magic: The Gathering.

Seriously though, it’s not the end of the world if [card]Wild Nacatl[/card] is unbanned. [card]Delver of Secrets[/card] is already a flying [card]Wild Nacatl[/card] once it flips. Are players really in danger of dying to a vanilla 3/3 when [card]Tarmogoyf[/card] is legal in the format?

On the other hand, if none of the graveyard strategies are unbanned in Modern, I can see [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] being banned. On his stream, Craig Wescoe happened to mention the possibility even though he was using [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] for his Naya Burn deck.

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[card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] wrecks deck diversity in Modern. From forcing midrange to go down the BGx route to denying graveyard shenanigans in Modern, [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] is a public enemy. Let’s also not talk about the strange stalemate interaction of having [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] on both sides of the table. Not many decks in Modern can answer a turn-two [card]Liliana of the Veil[/card] or [card]Birthing Pod[/card], which is unfair since Modern lacks a good [card]Force of Will[/card] substitute. [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] is the second-most played creature in Legacy, only recently being dethroned by [card]Stoneforge Mystic[/card].

Once again at GP Prague, [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] led the BGx decks to dominate in 50% of the top 8 finishes. While t’s hard to argue that [card]Deathrite Shamanp[/card] makes BGx an overpowered strategy, it does make for Modern a stale format. On the other hand, banning [card]Deathrite SHaman[/card] would open the door for other midrange strategies like Naya, Bant, or RUG decks like Eternal Command. Because [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] demands a turn-one answer, a ban would give decks more space to have cards other than turn-one removals spells. [card]Path to Exile[/card] would get a significant bump if [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] is not in the format.

Post Modern: Disrupting Shoal

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While the hype has died down on [card]Disrupting Shoal[/card], the TCGplayer mid price has stayed at $10.30 despite having zero copies in Day 2 of GP Prague. What gives?

Simply put, the Mono-Blue Ninja Bear deck is a fun deck. Here is a decklist in case you’ve missed it.

[Deck Title= Ninja Bear Delver] [Creatures] 4 Delver of Secrets 4 Phantasmal Bear 4 Snapcaster Mage 4 Ninja of the Deep Hours [/Creatures] [Spells] 4 Cryptic Command 4 Vapor Snag 4 Remand 4 Disrupting Shoal 4 Serum Visions 4 Gitaxian Probe [/Spells] [Land] 18 Island 2 Mutavault [/Land] [Sideboard] *4 Vedalken Shackles *4 Hibernation *3 Vendilion Clique *2 Hurkyl’s Recall *1 Wurmcoil Engine *1 Echoing Truth [/Sideboard] [/Deck]

How good? I think that after playtesting it for a week, I think it would be fair to say that it has the potential to be a tier-1.5 deck with more tweaking, including a splash for Red.

The deck is consistent in the sense that literally half of the deck’s draws net cards in the form of [card]Remand[/card], [card]Serum Visions[/card], [card]Gitaxian Probe[/card], [card]Ninja of the Deep Hours[/card], [card]Cryptic Command[/card], and [card]Snapcaster Mage[/card]. Promo and foil [card]Gitaxian Probes[/card] are looking good if the deck places well in upcoming GP Prague.

What about [card]Disrupting Shoal[/card]? I don’t think it’s anywhere near the power of [card]Force of Will[/card] because it’s easier to play around, but it does have a place in Modern where a simple play like turn-one [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] or turn-one [card]Expedition Map[/card] can determine the course of a game. In a format where going first is a huge deal, [card]Disrupting Shoal[/card] helps to offset the balance of the tempo gained by going first versus the card advantage by going second. If you’re still holding onto the card, I would advise you try to trade it away, but nevertheless, it’s a fun card to play.

I personally still think that the UR Delver deck that Jeff Hoogland popularized is better than the mono-blue version because it plays [card]Lightning Bolt[/card], the best card in Modern, as opposed to [card]Vapor Snag[/card], a temporary solution to permanent problems. [card]Spellstutter Sprite[/card] has really proven itself to be one of the premier cards in Modern due to its versatility in playing defensive as a control card and aggro as a threat on the table. While all the UR Delver decks that Day 2’d GP Prague were of the [card]Young Pyromancer[/card] variety, I believe that the [card]Spellstutter Sprite[/card] style has the most consistency because of the ability to counter most spells and also flash in threats.

For more talk about Modern, you can follow me on Twitter @fyawm or the MTGFinance subreddit where I post under the same name. Until then, please feel free to discuss the contents of this article in the comments below or on Reddit!

Enmou Gao – Intermediate Speculation

I’ve been getting lucky with specs lately, calling both [card]Threads of Disloyalty[/card] and [card]Splinter Twin[/card], but maybe, just maybe, I’ve figured something out. Many speculators will already know the information in this article, but since information tends to be asymmetrical (in that people don’t always know the same information), I think it will be helpful to many to put down in words some ideas on the process of speculation.

The reason that you want to familiarize with the thought process behind speculation is that it is something literally anyone can do. Think of the below steps as a check list, if you will, that can help to give you a green light on a spec before you have to consult anyone else about it. The best part is that with this information, you’ll be able to convey the spec to fellow financiers so that others can give opinions. You’ll also be able to add to the conversation when other speculators make calls.

But first, a word of clarification. Speculation means different things depending on who you ask.

There’s long-term speculation, which Quiet Speculation-writer Sigmund Ausfresser recommends. This involves buying sealed booster boxes and long-term-outlook cards, like [card]Restoration Angel[/card], [card]Cavern of Souls[/card], and [card]Geist of Saint Traft[/card], that will likely gain 20% or more per year.

Then there’s the bulk speculation that Brainstorm Brewery members Jason Alt, Ryan Bushard, Marcel White, and Corbin Hosler favor. The basic idea is to buy an underpriced card like [card]Desecration Demon[/card] at a near-bulk price, hoping that the card eventually becomes competitively viable as the meta shifts.

Lastly, there is the short-term speculation that will be discussed in the context of this article, which favors a smaller inventory and faster turnover. The idea is to buy in to a card, like [card]Threads of Disloyalty[/card] and [card]Splinter Twin[/card], at the point right before the card takes off.

So how do we get in on the right cards at the right time?

I’ve listed a series of questions to ponder in trying to answer the question. The question of when and on what to speculate is a tremendously difficult question that needs to be broken up into parts.

Question 1: Is the card a staple in a format?

By far, this is the question that narrows down the most number of cards. Yes, some research is required on your part, such as looking up the information on MTGGoldfish, Metamox, MTGTop8, or MTGIndex. I tend to use MTGGoldfish because the data is directly correlated to the results to the Daily Events on MODO, which makes it incredibly up-to-date and a good reflection of the current meta. However, MTGGoldfish is likely to not do a great job for the time being since Daily Events are down until December 11.

The idea behind the question is this: is there a demand for this card? I remember that there was someone on Reddit who had over 7,000 copies of [card]Worldslayer[/card]. However, because no one else wants the card, there is little value to hoarding copies of it (aside from personal value).

Question 2: How many copies are available on TCGPlayer?

Now we get to the supply side of things. I sincerely believe that supply is a greater driver of price than demand, although some level of demand has to exist for the supply to matter. The fact of the matter is that while demand is fickle, supply will more or less be consistent and predictable. You can read more about why supply matters from my previous article here.

The magic number of vendor listings that will pique my interest is 100 or less, including damaged cards and other conditions. You can adjust the exact number based on the circumstances, but once the number of vendor listing goes below 50, you can expect prices will begin spiking.

If there are multiple printings of the card, the supply is more complicated. For the most part, different arts will have similar prices, although that’s not always the case (see [card]Thoughtseize[/card]). Cards with multiple printings generally aren’t good spec targets except for the long-term.

On a similar vein, if a card’s lowest TCG shipped price is close to its TCG mid price, it’s also a positive signal for trades because you’ll be getting close to complete value for your trades. Being able to sell a card at close to its TCG mid price is attractive because it means that card is that much more liquid.

Question 3: Are copies sold out on other major online vendor websites?

Another way to gauge supply is to check the number of copies available at other websites. This is key to determining that it’s not just a few people deciding to buy out TCG Player. The biggest vendor is, of course, Star City Games, but others, like eBay, Amazon, Card Kingdom, Channel Fireball, Troll and Toad, and Cool Stuff Inc., are also good indicators. The key question to answer here is whether the spec is real or just a localized fluke.

Question 4: What is the current spread for the card?

Perhaps the easiest question of the bunch, you can go on MTG.GG to access Quiet Speculation’s free tool showing TCG mid prices and the highest buylist prices. The lower the spread, the better, and if it’s 0 or negative, bingo! Ideally, you want a card that the dealers are noticing, as well. If dealers are also interested in the card, it bodes well for lowering the supply of low-priced copies on the market, eventually raising the overall price.

Question 5: What is the MTGO price for the card?

While not necessarily a driver of physical prices, MTGO prices can be telling about the true competitive demand for a card in question. Do keep in mind that mythics tend to be overvalued on MTGO and rares undervalued due to redemption. With these factors in mind, when a rare is much higher on MTGO than its paper version and is played competitively, it may be ready for a price hike (see [card]Fulminator Mage[/card]). However, because of the difference in casual markets between MTGO and the paper game, the price correlation isn’t always going to exist.

Question 6: What do I do with all the information?

Like with all decisions, you weigh the costs and benefits. The cost you already know: it is the current price of the card plus shipping. The benefit is a weighted average between the spec hitting and not hitting, the chances of those respective scenarios, and the monetary value/trade value that can be gained in each scenario.  Remember, not all of your specs will hit, and certainly not at the time that you predict. However, by answering these questions correctly, your spec is more likely to hit quickly.

Post Modern

There hasn’t been any talk about shock lands for a while, so I thought I’d necro the shock land discussion!

To me, the shock lands have been following the projected prices. I may or may not be right, but I think I have the right idea.

[card]Blood Crypt[/card], [card]Hallowed Fountain[/card], [card]Overgrown Tomb[/card], [card]Steam Vents[/card], and [card]Temple Garden[/card] will likely see price increases come February or March, while [card]Breeding Pool[/card], [card]Godless Shrine[/card], [card]Sacred Foundry[/card], [card]Stomping Ground[/card], and [card]Watery Grave[/card] have likely already passed their high points.

Please see the graphs below for examples.

Woodland Cemetery

[card]Woodland Cemetery[/card] reached its highest point about a month after its Return to Ravnica equivalent, [card]Overgrown Tomb[/card], was printed.

Sulfur Falls

[card]Sufur Falls[/card] reached its peak right as its Return to Ravnica equivalent, [card]Steam Vents[/card], was released.

Isolated Chapel

Do you see the pattern yet? [card]Isolated Chapel[/card] was at its zenith right after its Gatecrash equivalent, [card]Godless Shrine[/card], entered the market.

Clifftop Retreat

One more for good measure! [card]Clifftop Retreat[/card] was at its highest price point about a month after its Gatecrash equivalent, [card]Sacred Foundry[/card] was available.

Hinterland Harbor

Here’s a black sheep. [card]Hinterland Harbor[/card] never went anywhere, and I’m guessing that’s because Simic as a color combination was never all that competitive in Standard.

Takeaways

The color of the lands available in Standard is very important. Not only does it heavily sway which color combinations are played, but it also affects the prices of available lands.

Being that the color combination of scry lands in Theros are Boros, Dimir, Gruul, Orzhov, and Simic, we can reasonably expect that shock land equivalents have already passed their peaks.

On the other hand, the scry lands that are yet to be released, Azorius, Izzet, Golgari, Rakdos, and Selesnya, may have a short span to reach new heights. I do have my doubts about [card]Steam Vents[/card], a card that has found a home in Modern more than Standard. Of the rest, I am most bullish on [card]Overgrown Tomb[/card] because of the controlling nature of the color combination ([card]Blood Crypt[/card] is more aggressive), the lack of reprints ([card]Hallowed Fountain[/card] was reprinted in the Theros event deck), and the cheaper current price ([card]Temple Garden[/card] is about $1.50 more on TCG).

Something else to note is that the prices of shock lands were invariably tied to the Innistrad buddy land equivalents. [card]Steam Vents[/card] never took off just as [card]Sulfur Falls[/card] never reached the heights that [card]Isolated Chapel[/card], [card]Clifftop Retreat[/card], and [card]Woodland Cemetery[/card] reached. However, I wouldn’t expect this trend to continue, given that scry lands favor more controlling strategies, whereas shock lands favor more aggressive strategies (buddy lands being somewhere in between).

Lastly, I would not recommend buying into [card]Overgrown Tomb[/card] because the expected gain may not be enough to make a profit. Trading is a good plan now that players have loosened their grips on shock lands. Card prices will likely have bottomed in December and January, so this will be the last chance to get in before Standard season is in full swing.

Thank you for reading this article, I hope that it was informative. Please comment below or on the article’s thread on Reddit that will be posted soon under “Spec’s Corner.” You can find me on Twitter @fyawm.

The Recession

Author’s Foreword

Due to the news of Premier Events returning to MTGO, the main premise of the article, that the MTGO market may not yet be at its bottom, has become outdated. Certain parts of the article have been rewritten to fit with the new information. However, I feel that the thrust of the article, that the fundamental problems of MTGO’s platform structure have not been resolved and that the market will be bearish in the long term, still stands.

The Stock Market

I first started speculating in the stock market freshman year of college during the 2008-2009 stock market crash.

Here is a graph of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA or Dow 30) over the period from August 1, 2008, to October 31, 2008, which was around the period that I first started speculating.

graph1

A quick introduction to the index used to create this graph. The Dow 30 is a stock market index that keeps track of 30 blue-chip stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

You can see that there is a sharp drop of 25% over the course of a month from mid-September to mid-October. This isn’t your average day stock market that moves 1-2% up or down every day. After the crash, however, you can see the stocks beginning to stabilize by October.

The market crashed because the fundamentals for the stock market were lacking. Financial instruments backing mortgages were expected to continue an unreal rate of increase in value because houses were exponentially growing in value. When the housing market crashed, the value of these assets plummeted. To give you an idea, Citigroup, one of the largest bank holding companies in the US, lost over $27.7 billion in the year 2008. Without the US government to back up the giant bank through TARP and other regulatory programs, the third-largest bank in the US would most likely have gone bankrupt.

There are a lot of other things that happen during a bear market (bear because a bear mauls downwards, as opposed to bull markets because a bull thrusts its horns up).

  1. In a bear market, volatility goes way up because no one knows where the market is going. Volatility is defined as the variation of price of a financial instrument over time. Because any point in a bear market could be the turning point or just another point where the prices are ready to tank more, speculators tend to overreact to the changes in price from day to day.
  2. No one knows when a recession will end. This point is key as to why the sell offs continue in a recession. Prices go up and down without any regard for fundamentals of a stock’s value. To avoid being stuck with a stock that is diving in prices, shareholders exit their positions, adding to the already-depressed levels.
  3. This third point is huge. Recessions are the best opportunities to pick up on underpriced stocks, especially on stocks with good fundamentals and strong balance sheets/income statements. More on this point later.

So what happened next? Did the stock market stabilize like at the tail end of the graph?

graph2

Here is another graph of the Dow 30 over the period of October 31, 2008, to May 1, 2009, continuing from where we left off on the last graph.

The market continued to plunge over the course of another five months, reaching its lowest point on March 9, 2009, at 6,547, down from the highest point in 2007 of 14,164, or more than a 50% loss. Just because there was a previous drop and a stabilization doesn’t mean that trend will continue going forward.

Keep in mind that these aren’t your average stocks but the most conservative, the cream-of-the-crop stocks (e.g., Exxon Mobil, McDonald’s, Nike, Microsoft, Coca-Cola, etc.). The market can be unpredictable at times, and it’s difficult to tell where the turning points are.

The MTGO Market

I will now bring the article back to MTGO. My point isn’t to say that the sky is falling and that everyone should sell all their cards on MTGO and hide their tickets under a couch. What I’m trying to convey is that there is a real possibility that we haven’t seen the worst yet.  Even though the Premier Events will be back, the MTGO program being used is still as broken as ever.

There are a number of similarities between the stock market crash and the current market condition of MTGO. The fundamentals are lacking for both markets. MTGO is a terrible excuse of a program for the number of players throwing money at it. There is also a high degree of uncertainty about where the light at the end of the tunnel is, especially given that Wizards of the Coast doesn’t have a good track record in dealing with the software side of things.

However, I believe the other side has some very good reasons as to why it may be a good time to be buying in.

Here are what I believe are the points in favor that the worst has passed:

  1. Prices have depreciated enough from the previous level that even if prices drop further, you’ll still get cards at a discount. You might lose, but you probably won’t lose a whole lot.
  2. Prices seem to have become more stable over the past week now that we are past the initial sell-offs, most particularly due to the effects of redemption creating a price floor.
  3. Wizards of the Coast cannot leave PTQs and the Magic Online Championship Series down for too long because of the loss of potential profits.

I believe that the bearish outlook will continue as platform issues have yet to be resolved, although the near term will be bullish because of the incoming demand since Premier Events will be back.

  1. I highly recommend reading the articles from Hipsters of the Coast (see article here) and toordeforce (see article here). As it stands, the estimate for the downtime is anywhere from four to six months, and it may take up to three years for next version of MTGO to be available. The longer the systems are down, the more likely it is that card prices will go down further because fewer players will be playing the game.
  2. The central issue that there is only one master server for the multiple servers that are running the games. Until this key architectural flaw can be worked around, the delay and lag and time outs on MTGO will be here to stay. MTGO Version 4.0 has been around for more than a year and is expected to replace the current MTGO Version 3.0, yet there has been little progress in improving MTGO Version 4.0.
  3. There is a very careful balance between letting the servers go down for upgrades/redo’s and further agitating players because of the instability of the current servers. Wizards is in a tough spot because both neither option is pretty. Change in MTGO is long overdue, but change isn’t going to be easy for a program on which hundreds of thousands of players are depending.

Whatever you decide to do with your MTGO cards, please do so with the fundamentals of MTGO in mind. The truth of the matter is that MTGO hasn’t been fixed yet and the root architectural problem is still unresolved. Whether Wizards announced that Premier Events to be back for revenue reasons or because the system is better now, there will come a time when the system will be down again.

Thank you for reading article, I hope that it was informative. You can find me on Twitter @fyawm

Enmou Gao – Inventory Turnover

Inventory Turnover

One of the topics that is often discussed in MTG is liquidity. Liquidity is the degree to which an asset or security can be bought or sold in the market without affecting the asset price. All things equal, it is better to speculate on cards that have higher liquidity because more liquid cards are easier to move.

But that’s not the whole story. There is another related economic term that I don’t see finance writers talking about and that is inventory turnover. Inventory turnover is the ratio of how many times an inventory is sold and replaced over a period.

The gist of it is this: how many good specs can you find over a period of time to maximize value gained over that time?

Let’s jump into a real life example.

Back when M14 was still fresh, I saw potential in the card [card]Scavenging Ooze[/card]. [card]Scavenging Ooze[/card] quickly became the most played card in Standard and started showing up as three- or four-of in Modern Jund lists. I saw the next [card]Snapcaster Mage[/card].

2013-11-08 21.13.43

I bought not one but TWO playsets of foil [card]Scavenging Ooze[/card] at $24.00 each ($96 per playset), thinking that I was ahead of the game. Funnily enough, it first rose to $30 on eBay during the period before rotation, until rotation hit and the price dropped like a rock to the current sub-$20 price. This spec makes me cringe because of how greedy and wrong I was.

Here’s another real life example.

I had a chance to get into a discussion point with Sigmund Ausfresser, one of the writers at Quiet Speculation.

You can view the tweets?here.

The question was one of his specs, [card]Restoration Angel[/card]. I have immense respect for the guy and for his writing, but as a fellow speculator, I cannot help but point out my view when I disagree with a spec.

Here’s a third example just to really get the idea across.

On the MTGFinance subreddit, someone mentioned the possibility of speculating on the currently-unplayed [card]Ral Zarek[/card], the planeswalker from Dragon’s Maze. In all honesty, I like the spec a lot. The card is unlikely to see a reprint anytime soon after dodging the Duel Deck bullet and being a mythic from the third set, the supply is capped to say the least (see [card]Voice of Resurgence[/card]). There is at least a probable case that an Izzet god will be printed in Born of the Gods based on the description of the god Keranos, and Ral Zarek seems like a natural fit for devotion with the ability to untap [card]Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx[/card].

You can view the thread here.

Where did we all go wrong?

The question is not whether the specs are good or not, all the specs are great and have reasonable upside (well, maybe except my [card]Scavenging Ooze[/card] spec). Before going deep into a spec, the question we want to ask ourselves is this: Is this the spec that is most appropriate for the current time frame? That is to say, is the card that I am buying/trading into the lowest that it is likely to be, and is it also the card with the most likely upside in the near future?

In the case of my foil [card]Scavenging Ooze[/card]s, not only was I wrong about the timing of the card, but I was also wrong about the trajectory of the card. My understanding of Standard was lacking and so was my view of eternal formats, where Scavenging Ooze is now being played as a two-of in most Jund lists.

As for the case with Sig, I 100% agree with him that [card]Restoration Angel[/card] is a great card to have, but the question is whether it will go up anytime in the near future. There are currently 200+ copies sitting on TCGPlayer just between the prices of $4.99 and $5.00 alone, not counting the copies that are even lower and the 200+ listings on eBay. My best guess is that it will take at least a year for the prices to budge upward, and the prices are likely to continue to go down during that time. If vendors want to sell their copies, they will have to lower their prices from the current TCG average of $5.00.

Back to the example in the MTGFinance subreddit. [card]Ral Zarek[/card] is a great spec with a good amount of upside, but the question is the time frame. There are currently no competitive decks playing the Izzet planeswalker, and I don’t foresee it being a thing before Born of the Gods when the Izzet scry land may be released. That gives us another two months or so for the card to drop before spiking.

Now you might be thinking, “Well, tough guy, great job criticizing everyone’s specs. What about a spec that actually works?”

Great question! Segues sure are easier when you’re talking to yourself.

Post Modern

I would like to introduce Post Modern, a segment where I (surprise!) post about the Modern format. I’m hoping to have a pick every article, subject to changes within the Modern metagame.

download

Ask and you shall receive.

The last few weekends have been incredibly exciting for Modern players, from GP Antswerp, the largest Modern GP to date, to the TCG 50K which featured a total of seven rounds of Modern. Live coverage of a format is the best way to garner attention and attract more players, especially for a format as explosive yet unexplored as Modern. Patrick Dickmann piloted Tempo Twin and won GP Antswerp, a great way to demonstrate that BGx does not have a stranglehold on all of Modern as naysayers would like to believe. There is plenty of space for new innovation, as we saw on the weekend of the TCG 50K where Brad Nelson showed up with a UB Merfolk Devotion deck that crushed Jund on camera. There yonder was a sweet brew if I ever saw one.

Did you know that the two decks that I just mentioned share a common spec? It’s not [card]Misty Rainforest[/card], [card]Scalding Tarn[/card], or [card]Vendilion Clique[/card].

Not sure yet?

The card that I’m talking about is [card]Threads of Disloyalty[/card], played as a three-of in UB Merfolk Devotion and as a two-of in the sideboard of Tempo Twin.

In an environment where [card]Abrupt Decay[/card] is becoming less prevalent because of decks that make it a dead card, [card]Threads of Disloyalty[/card] is increasingly becoming the answer to midrange. The card is incredibly powerful in Modern because it is able to hit most of the field, including all five of the top five most-played creatures in Modern (based on MTGGoldfish: [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card], [card]Spellskite[/card], [card]Tarmogoyf[/card], [card]Dark Confidant[/card], and [card]Snapcaster Mage[/card]). At worst [card]Threads of Disloyalty[/card] is a 1 for 1, and if the opponent has no answers, it is effectively a 2 for 1. Gaining control of an enemy [card]Tarmogoyf[/card] can be game changing.

[card]Threads of Disloyalty[/card] recently spiked from $12 to $16 on MTGO, while paper copies have yet to follow suit, still resting at $6. At time of publication, there is a 25% spread, with Card Kingdom paying $4.60 on copies of the card.

The supply is extremely limited being that it comes from Betrayers of Kamigawa, the second set of the Champions of Kamigawa block. There are currently only 58 vendor listings on TCG, a point that is low enough for a fast buyout. To give perspective, there are currently 176 vendor listings for [card]Chord of Calling[/card].

I believe that this spec is poised to double sometime over the next six months, barring a reprint, and now is the lowest point for the card.

Comments on the spec? Needs more lolcat? Join me next time for more specs and talk about Modern! Hope to see you then.

Enmou Gao – Intro to Speculation

The Intro:

So it looks like I’m keeping my position after blundering on a key term in my last article and asking Jason to eat a shoe. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, let’s keep it that way :)

A short belated introduction, my name is Tim Enmou Gao and I graduated last year with an undergraduate degree in economics and accounting. I picked up Magic again after a ten-year hiatus and went straight to Modern. I am a Modernophile at heart and prefer to play tempo decks. I am currently playing Jeff Hoogland’s UR Spellstutter deck.

Today, I wanted to cover the topic of speculation.

What is a speculation? A speculation is by definition a conjecture, there are no 100% speculations in Magic because Wizards of the Coast can at any moment make a new announcement. However, that doesn’t mean that all speculations are made equal.

I believe that experience is the best teacher, so I’ll be going over my first experience speculating. I hope that you’ll be able to find some value in reading the article.

 

The Deck:

Image

I first had the idea speculating on [card]Restore Balance[/card] deck in July this year after seeing the deck 4-0/3-1 on a couple Modern Daily Events within a week. Being that the deck didn’t really make any sense by looking at it, I started play testing a [card]Restore Balance[/card] deck on TappedOut.net because as with all things Modern, I wanted to figure out how the deck worked.

Let me explain.

Image (4)Image (3)Image (5)

By casting [card]Violent Outburst[/card], [card]Ardent Plea[/card], or [card]Demonic Dread[/card], the deck can effectively cascade into its key card, [card]Restore Balance[/card]. The deck runs a redundant number of cascade spells because it usually doesn’t run any innate draw or search mechanics. Casting a Modern-legal [card]Balance[/card] isn’t a big deal, but there are ways for the [card]Restore Balance[/card] deck to abuse the [card]Balance[/card] effect.

Image (2)

First and foremost, suspending a [card]Greater Gargadon[/card] before cascading into [card]Restore Balance[/card] adds an [card]Armageddon[/card] to the [card]Wrath of God[/card] effect! You can sacrifice all your lands to make your opponent sacrifice all his/her land while [card]Restore Balance[/card] is on the stack.

But it gets even better.

Image (6)Image (8)Image (9)

By having a hand of cheap suspend creatures, we can add on a [card]Mind Sludge[/card] discard effect to our third-turn [card]Wrath of God[/card]-plus-[card]Armageddon[/card]. [card]Simian Spirit Guide[/card] lets us play it out even faster and makes the opponent discard more cards.

The deck finishes by powering through with its many suspend creatures, usually with [card]Beast Within[/card] backup, because all its creatures are larger than the 3/3. By this point, the opponent should have few if any cards, few if any lands, and practically no board presence.

 

The Factors:

After playtesting the deck for about a week, I knew that there was no way that [card]Restore Balance[/card] is a $0.50 card when it had the potential to be the most powerful spell in Modern. Here are some other attributes going for the deck:

  1. The deck does not rely on the graveyard, any specific type of permanent, and there are currently no hate cards in the Modern meta that are widely played (i.e., [card]Ethersworn Canonist[/card], [card]Rule of Law[/card]). I didn’t realize this until a few days into playtesting and finally giving up the Borderpost version in favor of being free from hate cards.
  2. There is a close to zero chance of a reprint because Modern Masters, the last set in a while to have the the Suspend mechanic, skipped over the card. Suspend is largely an unpopular mechanic for Wizards because it is confusing for newer players.
  3. There is a Johnny element to this deck. It is fun to “go off” and wipe out the opponent’s lands, creatures, and hand, after which your suspend creature takes over the board. Total devastation is the name of the game.

There are a few other reasons why I felt that [card]Restore Balance[/card] was a spec that can reasonably hit.

  1. At the time, [card]Living End[/card] had recently risen in popularity because of GP Kansas City, where the [card]Living End[/card] deck reached second place. In terms of the main combo, the decks were very similar. However, whereas Living End was a $10 card at the time, Restore Balance was only $0.50.
  2. Theros was the next set to be released, and it was rumored to be based around enchantments. [card]Restore Balance[/card] is also the only deck in Modern that can play [card]Idyllic Tutor[/card] as a way to find [card]Ardent Plea[/card] to cascade, and it was conceivable that Theros would provide better 3CMC enchantment-tutor targets.
  3. I began to see copies on the internet disappearing at the $0.50 price point, and it was clear to me that I wasn’t the only who saw the opportunity to go deep. This was an opportunity for me to experience speculating first hand.

It should come as no surprise that I also have a number of caveats with any spec. The following is a list of reasoning that it might not be the right the spec for me.

  1. I haven’t hit a spec before, and the question was whether I wanted to throw over $100 on a single card that has no real precedent. That’s a lot of money to potentially throw away.
  2. The weakness of the [card]Restore Balance[/card] deck is that it folds to consistency and discard. If it becomes a deck, it would be the one and only five color Modern deck. There is no precedent of a five-color combo deck, as redundant as its cards may be.
  3. With a good amount of playtesting, the deck loses to early discard, and its manabase is not always going to get there no matter how many all color lands it runs. Consistency is an issue in larger tournaments that have more rounds, and it could very well be that [card]Restore Balance[/card] would never be a competitive deck.

 

The Actions:

With all these factors in mind, I’ve decided to go as reasonably deep into the spec as I can, because I am reasonably confident that the price isn’t going to be any cheaper and the card has great upside. In my first round of buying I went about 100 cards deep, which came out to be about $60 at $0.60 each after shipping.

On the same night, I contacted Jason Alt with a full list of reasons why I think the spec could hit and what he thought about the spec. It felt far-fetched that a pro financier would respond to a random Redditor, but I thought it was worth a shot. I was pleasantly surprised when he quickly responded affirming the spec. Here are a few quotes of what he wrote:

“If you bought restore balance at $0.60 you almost can’t lose.”

“It seems like the card keeps popping up. You’re doing everything I’d do and your thought process seems solid. I can’t find any fault. Take a chance on this. Go a little deeper.”

“You are confident in this spec – enough to buy 100 copies before even running it by me. I take it you’ve never hit before and that’s why you’re reluctant. Go deep. You can lose, but you can’t lose TOO much and if you hit, this card could be a few bucks on a buylist.”

I then stayed up another hour and bought some 75 more copies of the card, culminating in an average price of $0.62. Amazing things happen when you hear what you want to hear!

 

The Present:

Today, the median TCG price is $1.64, down from $1.78 from about a week ago. Prices have risen over the past few months and show no signs of stopping from doing so.

So far, I’ve sold a playset on eBay for $10.06 and another 51 cards off a buylist for $1.15 each for a total of $58.65. Not even remotely close to amazing, but I’m happy about my first spec!

RestoreBalance

I currently hold another 120 copies, averaging at $0.37 per copy, so I’m quite certain I’m in the money for this spec.

 

The Takeaway:

  1. Do your homework. This is the foremost factor for how you can hit a spec. While you can’t have a spec that will hit 100% of the time, you can do your best to make sure that the chances are as good as you’re willing to risk.
  2. The old adage stands, “Buy low, sell high.” Find a card that you believe is underpriced, preferably bulk or close to bulk, and go as deep as you reasonably can. You can lose, but you can’t lose too much, and the potential for upside is worth the risk.
  3. Keep track of all your cards, prices, copies, in an Excel file to know where you are. I can’t imagine trying to figure out whether I’m losing, breaking even, or making money on a spec without keeping track.

20131031_220145

I wish I can figure out which vendor sent me this “NM” copy…

Lastly, here’s another excerpt from Jason because all you readers obviously don’t get enough of him from just his weekly Quietly Speculation Alticle. All the value!

“One technique if the price goes up and you don’t know whether it will go up again is to sell enough copies at the first bump that you break even, then you hold the rest. If they go up more, it’s all profit. If they go down, it’s still all profit. If they stay the same – guess what! Profit. Breaking even as early as possible is the single most important lesson I can teach for your first spec.”

 

Thanks for reading!

Enmou (Tim) Gao

@TimEnGao on Twitter

Enmou Gao – Limited Supply

Limited Supply

Introduction

One of the oddballs in recent times has been how chase M14 Mythics have more or less maintained their prices despite seeing close to zero competitive play. There have been a few theories in response to this new trend, one being that casuals have started taking up more Magic. Ryan Bushard wrote an article about the phenomenon where casuals in addition to competitive players have begun to shape the prices of cards here:

But I don’t think that’s the whole story. One of the newer concepts in economics is that to a small degree, supply affects demand. The most relevant example here is the case of San Diego Comic Con Black on Black Planeswalkers. Without even any original demand for the product, because players know that the card is extremely limited in supply, the demand goes up. Players who aren’t normally collectors will want to get in for cheap. This effect is closely related to the concept of anchoring, which is the value that people tie to cards that may imperceptibly affect the value even though the prices themselves may not be in line with reality.

Theory

The net effect is simple. Because supply is down, which in turn increases demand (albeit by a small amount), price shoots way up.

Going forward, I think we’ll see other sets with relatively small prints where the key cards, because of a more limited supply, have a real chance to go up much higher than expected just because of the supply.

Application

To apply the example, I would argue that one of the biggest spec target for current times to be cards from FTV 20 and other limited releases. The supply limit is real deal here, partially because people who end up with boxes don’t want to open it up. Why open the box when the box can easily double in price five years from now? Even if the cards go up in value, because a sealed box is worth more than an opened box, players have an incentive to keep it sealed.

Looking closely at the 20 FTV cards, the FTV 20 card that the least number of vendor listings is [card]Gilded Lotus[/card], lower than [card]Jace, the Mindsculptor[/card]. On TCGPlayer, the card is already at a supply that is about half of other FTV 20 cards at 35 vendor listings selling copies ([card]Jace, the Mindsculptor[/card] at 58, [card]Hymn to Tourach[/card] at 66, [card]Swords to Plowshares[/card] at 60, and [card]Dark Ritual[/card] at 72). The example obviously doesn’t hold perfectly because for some of the cards like [card]Chainer’s Edict[/card], there are only 48 vendor listings selling copies, but each vendor listing has more copies.

[card]Gilded Lotus[/card]

GildedLotus(mtgstocks)

I would argue that [card]Gilded Lotus[/card] is the card in FTV 20 with the most growth potential for the following reasons:

1. EDH is the real deal in driving prices, and foil just makes it sweeter. Gilded Lotus is and will be one of the top played EDH cards, it is currently the 14th most played card in EDH based on metamox.com

2. The new art is by far the best. I forgot who said it, but the picture is actually a “gilded lotus” (for those who are English illiterate like myself, gilded means covered in gold paint). I also doubt that the art will see a reprint anytime soon because other FTV cards with new art have not.

3. I distinctly remember a tweet that Jason tweeted about his wife wanting a foil Gilded Lotus #CreatedAMonster I have no idea why I remember this or why this is even listed as a reason. :)

[card]Strip Mine[/card]

StripMine(mtgstocks)

Strip Mine from FTV Exiled (released in August 28th, 2009) is the card that most resembles Gilded Lotus. It’s a new art that is sweet on a card that is primarily played in EDH at 681 copies based on metamox, and I estimate that the supply of non-FTV version is about the same based on the number of eBay listings (221 total for Gilded Lotus and 209 otal for Strip Mine). However, you can see that the FTV Strip Mine has doubled up year over year and shows no signs of stopping from doing so.

4th(blacklotusproject)

On the other hand, the prices of the 4th Strip Mine, at 131 vendor listings currently, has remained largely stagnant over the three years since the release of FTV Realms. The difference in art, the new and only foil, and the low supply are the contributing factors.

Antiquities(blacklotusproject)

(Data for Antiquities [card]Strip Mine[/card] is unavailable from the Black Lotus Project)

Likewise, the black bordered Antiquities [card]Strip Mine[/card] has also stagnated over the past year due to the larger supply. While there are no vendor listings on TCG, there are 93 listings on eBay for Antiquities [card]Strip Mine[/card], 63 for 4th Edition, versus 4 for FTV.

I’ve acquired 14 copies of [card]Gilded Lotus[/card] at $4.50 each after shipping and have traded for 2 more copies. I’ll be actively trying to trade for more as the prices have already bottomed. Just as a side note, if people think that [card]Chromatic Lantern[/card] at 693 times used in EDH decks, [card]Thespian’s Stage[/card] at 330 times, and [card]Vesuva[/card] at 393 times are good bets, then [card]Gilded Lotus[/card] at 697 times used is probably a safe bet too (data based on metamox.com) especially considering the shortage in supply AND the new art.

[card]Jace, the Mind Sculptor[/card]

JacetheMindSculptor(mtgstocks)

Because of the limit in supply, another card that great potential, as obvious as it may be, is [card]Jace, the Mind Sculptor[/card]. Since Starcity has chosen to double down on having Legacy Sunday on all its weekend tournaments in 2014, Legacy will likely continue gaining popularity in the upcoming years. Jace is the 12th most played spell in Legacy and is also widely played in any EDH deck containing blue, making it a multi-format all-star.

Is this the bottom of the card? I don’t know. In the stock market, a general advice is to not try to catch a falling knife. You don’t want to be that guy buying in too early because it’s easier to buy into an upswing. But it’s definitely worth keeping a watch on the value of a sealed FTV 20 and also the price of [card]Jace, the Mind Sculptor[/card].

For reference, here a couple of the past FTV cards that are widely played in multiple formats:

[card]Grove of the Burnwillows[/card]

GroveoftheBurnwillows(mtgstocks)

FTV Realms was released in August 31st 2012, a year before FTV 20. Since then, [card]Grove of the Burnwillows[/card] has more than doubled in price. There are currently two listings on the card, the FS set at 48 vendor listings and the FTV Realms at 19 vendor listings. [card]Grove of the Burnwillows[/card] is the 30th most played land in Modern and also 20th most played land in Legacy [card]Punishing Fire[/card] combo.

[card]Sensei’s Divining Top[/card]

Sensei'sDiviningTop(mtgstocks)

One of the most ridiculously played cards, SDT is the 10th most played spell in Legacy and the 7th most played card in EDH at 881 copies. FTV Exiled is from a set in 2009, so prices have gone up since then. You can bet that even though its original printing was an uncommon, that the FTV card price will continue to shoot up even though there are 152 vendor listings for the CHK one AND the artwork is the same between the new and the old.

Conclusion

I hope that I’ve made my case that supply can be a real driver in card prices as long as there is a demand. Cards in FTV are in particular worth looking at because the supply is already known to be artificially low, and the demand will be based on the eternal formats that the cards see play in. The same can also be said for Judge Promos, as well as Full Art Promos and other special items. Sometimes, it doesn’t matter how many printings of the other versions of the card there are. Promo textless [card]Lightning Bolt[/card], the most common card in Modern by far and the 9th most common spell in Legacy, will always have a market even if the common [card]Lightning Bolts[/card] are at $1 each.

 

EDIT: As RichJMoney has noted, Grove of the Burnwillows has a different art and frame between the Future Sight and the FTV: Exiled prints.