Episode Archives

Post Modern

I love Modern because of all the value.

Even though Modern is a format where everything is subject to reprint, in addition to the likely release of more Modern Masters sets, the prices of staples are still low. In the year 2013, [card]Splinter Twin[/card] doubled in the U.S. shortly after doubling in Europe; [card]Chord of Calling[/card], [card]Fulminator Mage[/card], and [card]Horizon Canopy[/card] all more than doubled due not being reprinted; and novel new competitors like [card]Disrupting Shoal[/card] quintupled overnight.

Even fringe cards like [card]Threads of Disloyalty[/card] and [card]Restore Balance[/card] saw a bump just because it’s Modern and it’ll see more and more players as the format becomes more popular. [card]Threads of Disloyalty[/card] jumped 50% just because it was seeing play in two tier-one decks, and [card]Restore Balance[/card] is up 200% since six months ago, even though it sees close to zero competitive play outside of popping up in dailies every now and then.

For Magic financiers, it’s a good idea to play Modern, just like it is to play EDH, another eternal format that has a lot of room for speculation. The value proposition for playing the format is there. If a card has already been hit by a reprint in Modern Masters, you can only expect the value to go up from here. While Legacy has more stability, Modern has more spikes in value due to price corrections. Staying up to date about the Modern meta-game will give you a huge leg up to get to the spikes before the news goes around.

Modern tournaments are also heating up. Grand Prix Antswerp marked the biggest Modern Grand Prix to date with 1601 players, a respectable number even compared to other formats. Being that Modern is an eternal format with cards that don’t rotate, we can only expect the growth rate to accelerate going forward. As players jump on the bandwagon, more and more players will want in on the ride. And unlike Legacy, Modern is a pro tour format, which means that even if Star City Games can ignore the format for the time being, it can’t ignore it forever.

Post Modern: Banned List

Being that we’re getting closer to banned list announcements, I thought I’d take a minute to talk about the topic. It seems to always create controversy no matter what circle I’m in. Wizards of the Coast has more or less consistently banned/unbanned a card in Modern every six months or so, and we’re due for another change in the format.

Originally, I intended to list all the cards that will stay on the banned list no matter what, but the list is so long that it would likely take up the whole article. The banned list is unnecessarily long so that Modern would be protected as a new format, but that gives it space for cards to be unbanned (see [card]Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle[/card]). Let’s talk about other cards that can (and should?) be unbanned.

[card]Ancestral Vision[/card]

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Modern doesn’t have any good cascade cards now that [card]Bloodbraid Elf[/card] is banned. The [card]Shardless Agent[/card] following a [card]Brainstorm[/card] into [card]Ancestral Vision[/card] wombo combo doesn’t exist in Modern. Control in Modern is severely lacking, and UWR Control is currently on its knees due to having bad matchups against all of the tier-one Modern decks except Affinity. Recently, UWR has turned into more of a midrange deck. It runs a variety of creatures because there aren’t enough good cards to make a pure control strategy viable. [card]Ancestral Vision[/card] may be a powerful card, but it doesn’t win the game on its own and it tends to be a dead draw later in the game. It’s also quite slow, because that the earliest it can go off is turn five, while Modern is a turn-four format.

[card]Dread Return[/card]

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Call me crazy, but I can see the argument for [card]Dread Return[/card] being unbanned to really shake up the format. Dredge is non-existent in Modern, in part because [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] is one of the most-played creatures in the format. Three creatures is a lot to sacrifice, and without [card]Narcomoeba[/card] and [card]Bridge from Below[/card], it’s just not happening on a regular basis. I would love to see more variety in Modern, even if it means playing against broken decks.

[card]Golgari Grave-Troll[/card]

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Speaking of Dredge, why not unban the best Dredge creature? While [card]Dread Return[/card] would be a risky unban since it enables more trippy plays, [card]Golgari Grave-Troll[/card] is the safer unban because it’s just an upgrade over the Dredge 5 alternative [card]Stinkweed Imp[/card]. I don’t see this and [card]Dread Return[/card] being unbanned at the same time, but rather one or the other. Because graveyard hate is readily available in Modern now that [card]Rest in Peace[/card], [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card], and [card]Scavenging Ooze[/card] have been introduced to the format, there are plenty of cards to keep graveyard strategies in check.

[card]Wild Nacatl[/card]

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The card that I’m most stoked about the possibility of being unbanned is [card]Wild Nacatl[/card]. It would introduce a Naya Zoo archetype into Modern, an exciting alternative to the only other existing aggro deck in Modern, Affinity. [card]Wild Nacatl[/card] is a card that is strong but not broken, because like all fair creatures, it dies to [card]Lightning Bolt[/card]. The reason that it’s on the banned list is because it limits variety in aggro decks, but being that aggro in Modern is as limited as it already is, I don’t see the reason for it to stay on the banned list.

Kibler

So says the man who shook up MTGO and nearly caused an apocalypse. Could this be another shift of public opinion in the making? Love or hate the guy, apparently Brian Kibler’s opinions are the only ones that matter in the realm of Magic: The Gathering.

Seriously though, it’s not the end of the world if [card]Wild Nacatl[/card] is unbanned. [card]Delver of Secrets[/card] is already a flying [card]Wild Nacatl[/card] once it flips. Are players really in danger of dying to a vanilla 3/3 when [card]Tarmogoyf[/card] is legal in the format?

On the other hand, if none of the graveyard strategies are unbanned in Modern, I can see [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] being banned. On his stream, Craig Wescoe happened to mention the possibility even though he was using [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] for his Naya Burn deck.

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[card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] wrecks deck diversity in Modern. From forcing midrange to go down the BGx route to denying graveyard shenanigans in Modern, [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] is a public enemy. Let’s also not talk about the strange stalemate interaction of having [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] on both sides of the table. Not many decks in Modern can answer a turn-two [card]Liliana of the Veil[/card] or [card]Birthing Pod[/card], which is unfair since Modern lacks a good [card]Force of Will[/card] substitute. [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] is the second-most played creature in Legacy, only recently being dethroned by [card]Stoneforge Mystic[/card].

Once again at GP Prague, [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] led the BGx decks to dominate in 50% of the top 8 finishes. While t’s hard to argue that [card]Deathrite Shamanp[/card] makes BGx an overpowered strategy, it does make for Modern a stale format. On the other hand, banning [card]Deathrite SHaman[/card] would open the door for other midrange strategies like Naya, Bant, or RUG decks like Eternal Command. Because [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] demands a turn-one answer, a ban would give decks more space to have cards other than turn-one removals spells. [card]Path to Exile[/card] would get a significant bump if [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] is not in the format.

Post Modern: Disrupting Shoal

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While the hype has died down on [card]Disrupting Shoal[/card], the TCGplayer mid price has stayed at $10.30 despite having zero copies in Day 2 of GP Prague. What gives?

Simply put, the Mono-Blue Ninja Bear deck is a fun deck. Here is a decklist in case you’ve missed it.

[Deck Title= Ninja Bear Delver] [Creatures] 4 Delver of Secrets 4 Phantasmal Bear 4 Snapcaster Mage 4 Ninja of the Deep Hours [/Creatures] [Spells] 4 Cryptic Command 4 Vapor Snag 4 Remand 4 Disrupting Shoal 4 Serum Visions 4 Gitaxian Probe [/Spells] [Land] 18 Island 2 Mutavault [/Land] [Sideboard] *4 Vedalken Shackles *4 Hibernation *3 Vendilion Clique *2 Hurkyl’s Recall *1 Wurmcoil Engine *1 Echoing Truth [/Sideboard] [/Deck]

How good? I think that after playtesting it for a week, I think it would be fair to say that it has the potential to be a tier-1.5 deck with more tweaking, including a splash for Red.

The deck is consistent in the sense that literally half of the deck’s draws net cards in the form of [card]Remand[/card], [card]Serum Visions[/card], [card]Gitaxian Probe[/card], [card]Ninja of the Deep Hours[/card], [card]Cryptic Command[/card], and [card]Snapcaster Mage[/card]. Promo and foil [card]Gitaxian Probes[/card] are looking good if the deck places well in upcoming GP Prague.

What about [card]Disrupting Shoal[/card]? I don’t think it’s anywhere near the power of [card]Force of Will[/card] because it’s easier to play around, but it does have a place in Modern where a simple play like turn-one [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] or turn-one [card]Expedition Map[/card] can determine the course of a game. In a format where going first is a huge deal, [card]Disrupting Shoal[/card] helps to offset the balance of the tempo gained by going first versus the card advantage by going second. If you’re still holding onto the card, I would advise you try to trade it away, but nevertheless, it’s a fun card to play.

I personally still think that the UR Delver deck that Jeff Hoogland popularized is better than the mono-blue version because it plays [card]Lightning Bolt[/card], the best card in Modern, as opposed to [card]Vapor Snag[/card], a temporary solution to permanent problems. [card]Spellstutter Sprite[/card] has really proven itself to be one of the premier cards in Modern due to its versatility in playing defensive as a control card and aggro as a threat on the table. While all the UR Delver decks that Day 2’d GP Prague were of the [card]Young Pyromancer[/card] variety, I believe that the [card]Spellstutter Sprite[/card] style has the most consistency because of the ability to counter most spells and also flash in threats.

For more talk about Modern, you can follow me on Twitter @fyawm or the MTGFinance subreddit where I post under the same name. Until then, please feel free to discuss the contents of this article in the comments below or on Reddit!

The Financial Five: Multicolored Devotion

I know what you might be thinking. Why talk about multicolored creatures in regard to devotion? High devotion needs to be built up in the first three of four turns, right? You’re not wrong.  All that extra mana can enable a hand-barf, but why not play a powerful creatures earlier than intended?  Even better, what if you could build devotion for two different colors? You can! Some multicolored cards don’t have an aggressive mana cost.  Instead, providing powerful spells to sink you extra mana into can help take advantage of those devotion-boosting permanents you’ve already resolved.obzedat

[card]Obzedat, Ghost Council[/card] ($8)

“Ghost Dad” has been bouncing between from $5-15 since Gatecrash prices settled.  Though he may not see heavy play at the moment, a switch with [card]Blood Baron of Vizkopa[/card] after a meta change can be a quick fix to keep your deck up to speed with the ever-changing Standard format. He works better with [card]Gray Merchant of Asphodel[/card], avoids sorcery-speed removal, and can add two devotion to white or black.   He quickly applies consistent life total swings and will always enjoy riding the [card]Whip of Erebos[/card] (Ghost Ride da Whip!).  Though $8 may seem high, I think you will be glad to have some copies when he falls into favor again.

 

 

polis[card]Polis Crusher[/card] ($.25)

Let’s call this guy my sleeper in the hole.  He may not be good in any playable deck at the moment, but when Wizards of the Coast (WotC) prints a card with protection from the featured card type of the block, the cranial alarm bells should ring. How would you like to block any god (except [card]Thassa, God of the Sea[/card]) throughout the entire block?  [card]Polis Crusher[/card] can block and run past all bestow creatures, and unlike [card]Polukranos, World Eater[/card], cannot be hit by [card]Chained to the Rocks[/card].  I know four mana for a 4/4 is not all that impressive these days, but when a creature has protection from ‘X’ it should be kept in mind.  Pick this guy up as a throw-in at the end of any trade.

varolz[card]Varolz, the Scar-Stripped[/card] ($1.50)

With the printing of the B/G scry land coming to a LGS near you, I think the likelihood of Varolz finding a home is only a matter of time. Bestow creatures provide pump, a creature,  a self sacrifice to Varolz, and a scavenge into a creature of choice. Mana dorks have more purpose and extra value from the graveyard, as does [card]Desecration Demon[/card] after it catches an early removal spell to the face.  In a reanimation shell, engage ‘build your own fatty’ mode until you draw your reanimation spell.  Even a BUG list with [card]Thassa, god of the Sea[/card] can make Varolz or [card]Reaper of the Wild[/card] an unblockable fatty, but with a form of self-protection latched on to each of their tool belts.  This is another speculation that can consistently become a throw-in at the end of an almost equal trade.

Bonus Thought

We all know [card]Boros Reckoner[/card] and [card]Nightveil Specter[/card] will see consistent play through their Standard life.  Both creatures add to your devotion count in a big way. “But Ginger Ale, [card]Prime Speaker Zegana[/card] can only come down on turn five (using [card]Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx[/card] with two mana at four devotion plus two mana of the other color)!” True, but what if I told you I think [card]Prophetic Prism[/card] can enable devotion ramp decks at little to no cost?  Don’t believe me? Let’s change your mind.

prime speaker zegana[card]Prime Speaker Zegana [/card] ($2.50)

This seems like a sweet pickup at the current price tag, especially being from an under-opened expansion (Gatecrash). Zegana combos with a four-power creature to make her a draw-five 5/5 for only six mana.  I mentioned [card]Arbor Colossus[/card] in the last Financial Five as being a worthy speculation target. With [card]Elvish Mystic[/card], [card]Gyre Sage[/card], and [card]Burning-Tree Emissary[/card] (BTE) building early devotion, we already know getting to six mana isn’t hard. But how do we get blue mana? BTE can lead right into a free [card]Prophetic Prism[/card] to set up converting green mana to blue for an easy turn-four Prime Speaker. G/R Nykthos Ramp decks run out of cards if they don’t land [card]Garruk, Caller of Beasts[/card] early enough.  Ramping to Garruk requires a heavy number of creatures to maximize his +1. Prime Speaker lets you keep hitting your land drops as well as your desired tempo or removal spell. Is one strategy better than the other? No, but it is a new way to abuse Nykthos.  Though I could talk about how great his card is for days, know that $2.50 is as low as it will ever be.  A worthy pick up to have in your collection moving forward.

HYPOCRITE ALERT! HYPOCRITE ALERT!

I know I’m suppose to suggest cards that help devotion strategies, but when a strategy become established, a strategy to counteract it must be found.  As speculators, we must stay ahead of the metagame to maximize price increases. This last pick is already a solid card but also has potential to fight popular devotion strategies.

duskmantle seer[card]Duskmantle Seer[/card] ($1.50)

Playing against devotion strategies implies high-costing spells that this wizard could turn into heavy-damage burn spells.  [card]Dimir Charm[/card] can even mess up a recent scry or force them to take a chunk of damage next draw step. Cheap removal in all shapes and sizes, e.g. [card]Cyclonic Rift[/card], [card]Doom Blade[/card], [card]Ultimate Price[/card], [card]Dimir Charm[/card], and [card]Rapid Hybridization[/card], can help minimize the amount of damage you take. Splash white for [card]Azorius Charm[/card] to force their prized high-drop back to the top of their deck or splash green for [card]Abrupt Decay[/card] to take care of small permanents.  Cast a  [card]Thrill-Kill Assassin[/card] to trade or eat an early removal spell to help clear the way for Seer.  A price tag of $1.50 is a crime and I am ready to solve it when the time comes.

 

Final Thoughts

I feel that these picks have high profit potential and are just waiting for a minuscule meta change or one new card to take them to the level WotC intended them to be.  All of these cards have solid synergies (Obzedat + Whip, Varolz + Bestow, Duskmantle + Dimir/Azorius Charm).  Keep your eyes peeled for the new card that could turn your bulky rares/mythics into Standard staples.  Ask [card]Desecration Demon[/card], [card]Pack Rat[/card], [card]Nightveil Specter[/card], and [card]Blood Baron of Vizkopa[/card]. They’ll vouch for me.

 

As always, thanks for reading.

Houston ‘Ginger Ale’ Whitehead
Follow: @TNSGingerAle
Listen: Tap N Sac Podcast (RSS Feed)
Read: TNSGingerAle.com

 

The Township That Could

Modern season is getting closer and closer. People are preparing for Pro Tour Valentia, the big Modern event before the PTQ season starts.  At the PT, we’ll see the world’s best players brewing all manner of new decks that will inspire entire communities to speculate on cards. Competitive players will need to slowly start picking up playsets of Modern cards for their decks. This is an opportune time for me to talk about a card I would consider a great pick-up, both short- and long-term.

Kessig_red

First allow me to tell you something about the way I’ve learned to work in MTG finance. As some of you might know, I wasn’t as knee-deep into finance a year ago from now. I had made some profitable trades, had a good sense of what cards were going to be good and how to grow my collection, but actually profiting from my hobby was not something I considered. Back then I listened to the Brainstorm Brewery podcast “just for fun.” But as I listened, I got more and more drawn into the appeal. Part of that is the joy that I get from watching numbers grow. It’s like gardening, but with numbers.

And because I love seeing my collection and finance account grow, I absolutely despise watching it fall. This causes me to be careful with what I trade for or purchase as “specs.” Hype-driven cards such as [card]Phyrexian Obliterator[/card] or [card]Disrupting Shoal[/card] are known to be mostly artificial price spikes, based on no results or actual demand, and offer very little profit with a high risk. Some opt to gather as many 10-cent rares as they can, hoping one of them becomes a hit. If not, they can just out them all at eight cents each. This is a low-risk investment but with an equally low reward. What I really want to shoot for are the cards that fall into the low-risk, high-reward section. Cards that aren’t going to unexpectedly drop in price (barring influence from Wizards of the Coast through bannings) and only have room to grow, but in a more pronounced fashion than the 10-cent bulk rares. Take a look at the grid I made.

 

Financegrid

 

This matrix gives you a clear demonstration of what I mean regarding risk versus reward. Through a few example cards, you can piece together how any given card will fall into these quadrants. Hopefully this grid will be useful to you, and you can also show it to other people if you ever want to explain how a card can be considered a bad spec based on the risks. But after this long introduction, it is time to get to what I really came for to talk about this week.

Gavony

 

Does this art remind you of something? Some place? A township of sorts? There’s a link between this image and the matrix I showed you earlier. The card that this image depicts falls under that sweet category I spoke of. Low risk, high reward.

[card]Gavony Township[/card]

 

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For a card that you can get around a dollar on TCGplayer or 1.50 euros on MagicCardMarket, this land does a lot of work. It is featured in several prominent decks in Modern, mostly variations of [card]Birthing Pod[/card] decks and green-white decks. Its functionality includes resetting your persist creatures, such as [card]Kitchen Finks[/card] and [card]Murderous Redcap[/card], as well as getting aggressive with your [card]Birds of Paradise[/card] as they quickly grow out of control with +1/+1 counters. And because both of these deck archetypes, which each have several variations, run mana accelerants, the Township activations come earlier and more often. Until, of course, the game has been ended by a bunch of 3/4 [card]Noble Hierarch[/card]s and [card]Birds of Paradise[/card].

[card]Gavony Township[/card] is excellent to pick up simply because of its utility and staying power versus its cost. Picking copies up as filler in trade isn’t hard because Township doesn’t inspire a particularly strong price memory. People think of this as rotated Standard fringe card.

And if that wasn’t enough of a reason to acquire some of these lovely pieces of real estate, just take a look at the Magic Online price. I’ve been picking up my fair share of those online as well.

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Twelve cents. Do you know how easy it is to double your money on a twelve-cent card? Don’t be surprised if you more than quadruple your investment. Before rotation, the card’s price had gone as high as 1.1 tickets, more than nine times as much as it is now. And the card sees more Standard play than it did Modern..

So there you have it. My off-air pick of the week. I know this article was a short one, but that should make up my 2000-word wall of text last time. I would like to know if you found the above matrix to be useful (and it still needs a name!). Also, if you enjoyed the sweet landscape images, you should definitely check out Jung Park’s work and support him by playing the Zendikar basic lands with his artwork. If you want to contact me, you can do so as usual on my mail [email protected] or hit me up on Twitter @TheMeddlingMage.

 

MtG After Hours #9 – EDH World Problems

This week’s episode comes from episode 83 of Brainstorm Brewery with guest host Adam Styborski (@the_stybs).  Jason and Corbin inquire about how to make a fun yet powerful EDH deck.  Corbin gives his reasons for playing Combo elements in his decks.  Jason is still looking to find the perect 75% EDH deck.  Adam see red about a new commander, wishing it would go away is being kind.

MtG After Hours is basically all the good shit that gets cut on the editing floor. Often while recording a podcast, the banter that’s not being recorded for the show can sometime be better than the actual episode. Get a rare behind the scenes in to the minds of your favorite podcasters, the featured podcast will rotate each week.

Contact Us

Brainstorm Brewerywebsiteemailtwitter

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Corbin Hosleremailtwitterfacebook – quitespeculation.com

Jason E Altemailtwitterfacebookgatheringmagic.com – quitespeculation.com

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Weekend Review January 10-12

This weekend marked the first major Modern event of the year: Grand Prix Prague.  As we creep closer and closer to Modern season, Modern staples are beginning to ascend in price almost across the board.  If you don’t believe me, go TCGplayer and search [card]Birthing Pod[/card].  It’s already almost a $10.00 card, and Modern season doesn’t technically start until June.  I will be selling my copies of [card]Birthing Pod[/card] at $10.00 if and when we get there.  While it will very likely climb to higher heights, I am quite content with the profit I’ll be making at that point.  As the guys from the Brainstorm Brewery podcast like to say, “Leave the last ten percent for someone else.”  With that being said, Wizards just announced a new deck product for Modern.  We don’t know what will be printed in the deck, and I won’t speculate on its contents.
Liliana of the Veil Wizards would like to capitalize on some of the Modern hype and this product will assuredly be in high demand despite the MSRP.  I am still
quite bullish on almost all Modern staples, (the more recent the reprint the safer bet).  If you aren’t already, I recommend targeting Modern staples in trades.  Many casual players are still out there who cracked Modern Masters packs in hopes of living the dream and ended up with a handful of Modern playable cards sitting in their trade binders.  A couple of cards that haven’t seen reprint in awhile that I am a little more hesitant to acquire as speculation targets: [card]Remand[/card] and [card]Noble Hierarch[/card].

 

Modern:

Grand Prix Prague 2014 Decklists

I am happy to report that Jund is alive and well.  Four of the top 8 decklists fit the description (at least loosely) of what modern Jund has evolved into following the banning of [card]Bloodbraid Elf[/card].  Meanwhile, not a single copy of [card]Birthing Pod[/card] managed a top 8 finish with one copy in the top 16.  Going into day two, each of the following archetypes, U/W/R midrange, Merfolk, Urza-tron, Splintertwin, and Jund had at least one pilot that remained undefeated.  Birthing-pod strategies are surprisingly missing from that list, but a number of factors may contribute to this and we are only examining the results from a single tournament.  Consider the following decklist:

[deck title=Emanuele Giusti Grand Prix Prague 2014 Top 8 – Modern]

[Creatures]

*4 Dark Confidant
*4 Deathrite Shaman
*1 Olivia Voldaren
*3 Scavenging Ooze
*4 Tarmogoyf

[/Creatures]
[Spells]

*2 Abrupt Decay
*3 Inquisition of Kozilek
*4 Lightning Bolt
*2 Maelstrom Pulse
*2 Terminate
*3 Thoughtseize
*4 Liliana of the Veil
[/Spells]
[Land]
*4 Blackcleave Cliffs
*1 Blood Crypt
*1 Forest
*3 Marsh Flats
*1 Misty Rainforest
*2 Overgrown Tomb
*3 Raging Ravine
*1 Stomping Ground
*2 Swamp
*2 Treetop Village
*4 Verdant Catacombs

[/Land]

[Sideboard]
*2 Ancient Grudge
*2 Grafdigger’s Cage
*2 Jund Charm
*2 Obstinate Baloth
*1 Olivia Voldaren
*2 Slaughter Games
*1 Sword of Light and Shadow
*1 Terminate
*1 Thoughtseize
*1 Thrun, the Last Troll
[/Sideboard]
[/deck]

I would consider this particular Jund decklist relatively “stock” in the sense that there are no big surprises.  Liliana of the Veil is a four of in almost every Jund deck I have seen as of late, and I don’t believe that her current price point reflects her current popularity.  I could easily see price correction moving her price to $50.00 and higher during Modern season.  I saw copies earlier this week as low as $40.00 and she is trending upward as I write.  When did Olivia Voldaren become the four drop of choice in Modern Jund?  She has been showing up in recent MODO daily decklists as well, but I am under the impression that the general population of magic players would not think of this card as an auto-include in Modern Jund.  I might try to target a few copies now in trades as the casual appeal alone for this card can potentially drive its value upward. At less than $5.00 it feels pretty safe.  The versions of Jund splashing white tend toward Ajani Vengeant, and there were numerous copies of this card in a variety of archetypes.
Ajani Vengeant

Standard:

SCG Open Orlando Standard Decks

At the Star City Standard Open in the top 8 there were three copies of Mono-Blue Devotion, one copy of Mono-black, two copies of pseudo-Mono-Black plus [card]Blood Baron[/card] and [card]Sin Collector[/card] (otherwise known as B/W midrange).  Seems about par for the course.  Standard is clearly stagnate. [card]Liliana’s Reaver[/card] did make its way into the 11th place B/G devotion deck that Shawn Ellis ran.  I don’t really see any financial implications for the card, but it did seem like a reasonable card choice both contributing to devotion, strong on offense and defense, and a nice little upside.  I think that the four drop spot isn’t really contested and still belongs to [card]Desecration Demon[/card], but the hand disruption element to an unchecked reaver may be something worth trying out.

Legacy:

SCG Open Orlando Legacy Decks

Yet another unique deck chock-full of answers to the [card]True-Name Nemesis[/card] showed up and took it down this week in BUG Delver.  This deck can proactively fly over [card]True-Name Nemesis[/card], with [card]Delver of Secrets[/card] or [card]Tombstalker[/card] or just kill it.  Not by coincidence we see another three copies of [card]Liliana of the Veil[/card] in this deck.  I see a trend here.  She’s everywhere.  Another card that shows up in the sideboard of the winning BUG list is [card]Grafdigger’s Cage[/card].  This card is also showing up in a number of places, and it’s incredibly versatile, with one or the other clause of text being very relevant in numerous match-ups in Legacy as well as Modern.
With the amount of discussion of True-Name Nemesis being an unfair card as of late, it is quite pleasing to only see four copies throughout two decks in the top 8 of the open this weekend.  The winning list did not have a single copy, and no one archetype had more than one pilot in the top 8.  One could argue that [card]Delver of Secrets[/card] is an archetype in and of itself, but I would argue that it is more of a super-type.  What is clear is that Legacy is incredibly diverse, rewards good play, and would appear to remain rather healthy despite the addition of [card]True-Name Nemesis[/card].

 

 

Paul’s Pre-GP Rundown

You have less than a month to sell your [card]Mutavault[/card]s or trade them away for something insane five minutes before a PTQ starts. This card should be in an event deck soon, and even if it’s not, demand can’t get much higher. There’s no upside left in the card, and it’s time to turn your copies into something else if you haven’t already.

Jan van der Vegt is apparently on the [card]Goryo’s Vengeance[/card]/[card]Through the Breach[/card] deck for GP Prague, but with a five-color manabase to support [card]Fist of Suns[/card] as a third way to cheat in [card]Emrakul, the Aeons Torn[/card] and [card]Griselbrand[/card]. I have no idea if this version of the deck is good, but you can get Fist for under $2 and its casual appeal will help mitigate the risk (it has a 27% spread, though some of this is likely due to potential hype about the deck). I think this is close to a free roll if you’re paying attention this weekend and can cash out before stores update their buy prices should the deck flop.

[card]Primeval Titan[/card] has a 15% spread and is 20 tickets on MTGO. These are both giant signs pointing towards the card going up fairly dramatically in the near future. It’s in some versions of [card]Scapeshift[/card] as well as the fringe [card]Amulet of Vigor[/card] deck. It’s also in the Green Devotion deck everyone has been secretly brewing at 3:00 a.m. I’ll admit I bought in pretty hard on these last week and I still like the price they’re at—between GP Prague and Pro Tour Born of the Gods in the short term, as well as Modern PTQ season coming in a few months, this bet feels hard to lose.

[card]Gemstone Mine[/card] is another interesting pickup. It’s in the [card]Fist of Suns[/card] – [card]Griselbrand[/card] deck I mentioned earlier as well as the [card]Amulet of Vigor[/card] – [card]Primeval Titan[/card] deck. Normally being in two fringe strategies wouldn’t be very interesting, but it also has a 30% spread and lots of demand outside of Modern. I don’t think Mine is an outright buy so much as a trade target, but it’s something to keep an eye out for during the next few weeks when you’re at events.

I cannot keep copies of [card]Cabal Therapy[/card] for more than a day or two. There are 32 total listings on TCGplayer right now and the internet is slowly drying up (Star City Games is completely sold out, for instance). I think this card could hit $20 or more over the course of a day and is a fantastic pick up.

Avacyn Restored is in the middle of a price adjustment. [card]Avacyn, Angel of Hope[/card], [card]Craterhoof Behemoth[/card], and [card]Griselbrand[/card] have seen significant increases over the past few months and I don’t think the set is done experiencing these kind of jumps. I love [card]Cavern of Souls[/card] as a pickup right now—this has real long-term potential to hit $20 or more in a few years with no competitive results, a la [card]Vampire Nocturnus[/card] before the reprint. However, the card also has real legs in Modern and Legacy Merfolk decks, which makes it even more appealing. Cavern isn’t a cash buy right now, but it’s a very solid trade target that I don’t think you can lose on in the long term.

Andrew Shrout continues to show us that green-white is not completely dead in Standard. His results combined with the upcoming G/W temple in Born of the Gods would normally lead me to believe that buying into Standard G/W staples this month is an easy way to turn a profit, but I’m not sold in this case. Take a look at his list:

[deck title= GW Shrout]

[Creatures]

*4 Experiment One

*4 Soldier of the Pantheon

*4 Fleecemane Lion

*2 Skylasher

*4 Voice of Resurgence

*4 Banisher Priest

*4 Boon Satyr

*3 Mistcutter Hydra

[/Creatures]

[Spells]

*4 Advent of the Wurm

*4 Selesnya Charm

[/Spells]

[Land]

*8 Forest

*8 Plains

*3 Selesnya Guildgate

*4 Temple Garden

[/Land]

[Sideboard]

*1 Mistcutter Hydra

*2 Skylasher

*3 Unflinching Courage
*2 Last Breath

*2 Rootborn Defenses

*2 Polukranos, World Eater

*3 Glare of Heresy

[/Sideboard]

[/deck]

That’s 34 rares and mythics. Granted, eight of them are [card]Mistcutter Hydra[/card]s and [card]Skylasher[/card]s, but they could just as easily be [card]Ajani, Caller of the Pride[/card], [card]Loxodon Smiter[/card], or [card]Witchstalker[/card].

With around half the deck being made up of rares and mythics, I think any type of price increase will be spread out among too many cards for anyone to make any money. The lone exception is [card]Advent of the Wurm[/card] because everyone hated Dragon’s Maze, so the relative supply will be much lower. It’s also entirely possible that [card]Lifebane Zombie[/card] is actually the best pickup if we think G/W is going to be good, but it’s almost three times as expensive as Advent, so it has less upside. We can probably wait a bit longer before picking it up.

I invested in [card]Scavenging Ooze[/card] instead of [card]Mutavault[/card] this September. Oops. I like Ooze as a trade acquisition this month, if not an outright buy, while it’s price is so significantly depressed. I don’t think there’s much more time than that to get in because the temples coming in Born of the Gods should help make midrange strategies relevant in Standard again, which is where Ooze is at its best. Don’t get me wrong, [card]Sylvan Caryatid[/card] is the main reason to play Green in midrange strategies and Ooze will probably be riding its coattails, but I don’t think that matters. The promo hurts the ceiling somewhat, but I still think Ooze can hit $12 with broad demand once the format evens out a little.

It’s very interesting that Standard prices haven’t really moved much despite PTQs starting a month ago. At the same time, various older cards have doubled. We all have to learn the pricing patterns of the new PTQ schedule and how the different block structures fit within it. For instance, I’m staying away from all Theros cards until June (right before M15 and during Modern season). We haven’t had a big-small-small block since Scars of Mirrodin, when the playerbase was significantly smaller, and while I don’t know what drafting a set for nine months is going to do with this large a player base, I have a hunch.

Have comments? Please share below.

Andrew Colman – Serum Visions: Sphinx’s Brew-velation

Hello and welcome to Serum Visions everyone

 

It’s been a quiet week in the MTG world it seems. Or maybe I haven’t been paying any attention. I was stretching to come up with a topic that was related to the MTG world and my wife recommend to “just give them a good old history lesson.” I though that was a great idea but it needed to be inspired. I wandered over to the Mother Ship (Daily MTG) and there it was, [card]Black Lotus[/card], as the Card of the Day. That’s the hallmark beginning of the impressive history of our game.

The earliest beer has been a topic of beer scholars for around hundred years. They have found more than 800 paintings on the walls of the pyramids and had temples dedicated to the goddess beer. Home brewing was an everyday occurrence, and existed as sustenance for the people of the time. There were also major breweries alongside microbreweries. There were different styles, ingredients, and regions. So let’s dig in to some fun stuff.

The Gods and Goddess of Beer

As I think we can all remember from elementary school, Egyptians life revolved around the culture’s gods and the stories that surrounded them. Beer was no exception to this rule. It was believed that Dionysus was the inventor of beer. There is a somewhat contradictory story that reads that Dionysus actually fled to Mesopotamia because he was disgusted that the Egyptians enjoyed beer. Take from this what you will, it’s all here to say that the gods and beer were linked right from the beginning. If, however, Dionysus invented beer and somehow humans got a hold of it, we would need to be able to produce more of it. Since we are not gods who can just create things from nothing, we needed a process of making it: brewing. With that process came the goddess Hathor (see statue). She was the “inventress of brewing.” Another name that she carried was “the mistress of intoxication.” The temple that was dedicated to her was aptly named “the place of drunkenness.”  We then have another goddess associated with beer, her name is Menqet. She was often seen with Hathor and carried the name “the goddess who makes beer” and also “overseer of the brewery women.”

The Earliest Home Brew

It is not a surprise, then, that the people who made the beer in this culture were the women. At home the women would have often brewed the beer as it may have been considered a task akin to cooking daily meals. Reasons for this might have been that beer was safer to drink than the water and it was also a source of calories and nutrients. They were not yet using hops to preserve their beer, so this home brewed beer would have been much lower in alcohol content. Therefore, it would not have been able to keep infections at bay for very long. So it would have been consumed very fresh, possibly as soon as the primary fermentation was complete. If the beer is only being made at two to three percent alcohol, it would only take a few days to completely ferment and would need to be consumed within a few days. It seems like it would not be unreasonable to say that they may have been brewing at home two or three times a week.

Glyphs

If you read my Grain to Glass post, you’ll have a good idea how beer makes into your glass. The process used in ancient Egypt, however, has been hotly debated. In the last thirty years, the argument has been distilled down into what we can actually discern from the information that’s left to us. The debate stems from a long artistic interpretation tradition of beer scholars. Scholars took art on the walls of the pyramids and used it to discern ingredients, processes, and other elements of the beer culture in ancient Egypt. These interpretations have led to some misconceptions, but it is now generally agreed that the beer was actually made from bread that had lots of yeast added to it. It was lightly baked and then stomped to break it up much like wine grapes. It would have been put into a large vessel for fermentation, then strained and put into a jar to be sealed for storage or transportation.

Big Business

Wait a second, I just said that these beer would have been made every few days and drunk very quickly. But just like we have big breweries today, there were big breweries back then. Egyptian beer was produced at such high volumes that breweries were able to supply all the local demand as well as leave some left over for export. The most popular beer from Egypt would have been from a city called Pelusium. It was so popular, in fact, in later times it was exported to Rome. Ian Hornesly writes in his book what this exported beer might have looked like.

“The possibility exists that we are looking at an ancient equivalent or our much-exported “India Pale Ale” from the ninetieth century. Beer destined for export must have had some “keeping quality to them, maybe via a herbal addition. Maybe IPA actually signified ‘Imperial Pelusian Ale’ ”

This just goes to show that nothing is new under the sun. If a beer has to travel, it  will need to to last longer. The only way to achieve that is to increase the alcohol content and add a preservative. Maybe a history of IPA will serve us well in the near future. Something else that is not new is that people of all walks of life and time like variety. Egypt was also a big importer of beer. The most popular beer they imported was from an area called Qode from somewhere near Babylonia. This beer is important because it seems to be the first beer that was produced outside of its original region. Hornsely asks if it is the first instance of brewing under license, meaning that the demand was too big for the main brewery to handle so itlicensed the recipe out to other breweries to make up for its shortfall. However, I wonder if this is actually the start of the Anhiseir-Busch beer corporation lineage…

Making a Living

With all of this beer being brewed in Egypt and imported from abroad, you might wonder what it is that they did with it. Or maybe you don’t, drinking it seems like a fairly obvious answer, but that is only part of the story. Beer and bread were actually a means of payment for working certain jobs. One person might be paid four khar (ancient Egyptian unit of measurement) of emmer (a type of wheat) and 1.5 khar of barley per month. This works out to roughly 202 kilograms or 444 pounds of grain per month. The person being paid does not receive this as raw grain, but rather receives it in its processed form of beer and bread. To put this into some perspective, it takes around 10 pounds of grain to make five gallons of 4%-ABV beer. So, 444 pounds of grain will make you 44.4 five-gallon batches of beer. Each five gallon batch of beer yields around 55 bottles, so in the end you end up with 2,420 bottles of beer per month, or 80 per day. There are, however, a great number of caveats to these calculations, not all of which I will be able to discuss here. I’ll mention a couple, though, the first one being that one person’s wage would probably be feeding a whole household. It would also be fair to say that a given household might want some bread during a given month, which would cut down drastically on the amount of beer it would get, especially with a larger family. So after these, and still other, allowances have been made, it’s probably fair to say that a worker would earn about a six pack of beer per day. Not too bad if you ask me.

And finally I’ll end with a list of names that the Ancient Egyptians would have called the varying styles of beers.

Dark beer, Sweet Beer, Thick Beer, Iron Beer, Garnished Beer, Friend’s Beer. Beer of the Protector, Beer of Truth, Beer Which Does Not Sour, and Beer of Eternity. I personally want to try the Friend’s Beer and the Beer of Truth, which was drunk by the 12 gods who protected the Shrine of Osiris.

There’s much I have sadly had to leave out, but I’ll have another swing at the ancient Egyptian beer culture one day. Until that day, I’ll leave you with the main resource I used so you can go dig in for yourself if you’d like. The book is called The History of Beer and Brewing by Ian S. Hornsey, Published by the Royal Society of Chemistry in Cambridge, England.

Style of the Week: Wheat Beer/ Hefeweizen

 

Most of the beer, if not all, made in Egypt would have had emmer wheat in it. So if you can find an emmerwheat beer, try that. If not, then go out and try a local offering of a wheat beer! Tasting notes can be found here.

 

As always thanks for hangin’.
Andrew

Ryan Archer – How to Deal With Being a Loser

In every game of Magic, there is a winner and a loser. This is never more evident than playing in the first round of a large tournament. Sure, all of us want to win, but the truth is that some of us will lose that round. In fact, half of us will. That’s a lot of people at even semi-large events. In fact, most everyone in any given tournament will be a loser. Even the guy who places second will feel like a loser because he almost got there (though he shouldn’t, second place is still very good). All this losing can take a toll on the best of us. The trick is to be ready.

Magic is a game of variance. The cards you draw are random. This can lead to the better player losing because his opponent drew better than him. We have all lost to someone when we thought we should have won but instead just drew lands. If you haven’t, keep playing, it will happen to you, and you will hate it. If you want to grind tournaments, you need to be able to handle losing mentally. It’s important to keep your cool, not only in the a current tournament when riding the X-1 bracket, but also in future tournaments.

Tilt

Tilt is that feeling of unnerve that can happen when we make a bad play and get punished, or when our opponent gets lucky, or maybe when we just plain lose. I bet almost everyone has ended a round of Magic and walked over to a friend.

“Get there?”

“No, my opponent was so lucky. I [card]Thoughtseize[/card]d him and took his [card]Supreme Verdict[/card]. He ripped another one the next turn and cast it to kill all my creatures. Then he ripped [card]Elspeth, Sun’s Champion[/card]. He was just so bad. I wish I was as lucky as he was. I hate [card]Supreme Verdict[/card]. I hate Magic.”

On and on and on.

It’s sometimes very hard to lose a game. Maybe you’re playing in a PTQ and your dream is to make the pro tour. Maybe you’re playing in an open and you’re playing for top eight only to have your opponent top deck the one card he needs to win. Overcoming tilt is a very difficult skill to acquire, but it is one you must acquire in order to do well in real tournaments. Here are some things I do to help overcome tilt.

Realize That Sometimes People Get Lucky

Let me say this again: Magic is a game of variance. You can practice every matchup and still lose to only drawing land. It’s just part of the game. Even the dice roll and going first can lead to a huge blowout, and the dice are also random. You just have to deal with it. Understand it. Sometimes you will get lucky, sometimes they will. I bet you don’t agonize over the time you got lucky to win. Though, [card]Thoughtseize[/card] guy above, sure remembers that sting when his opponent got lucky.

I heard somewhere that the best Magic players, I’m talking pro-level players, can only hope to have a win percentage of 70% against a field of good players. That means in a ten round tournament, they had to get lucky twice to make top eight at 9-1. Crazy.

Take a Closer Look at Why You Lost

In my experience, this is the single most-helpful technique you can perform to get better at Magic. It’s very easy to just claim your opponent got lucky, but it’s much more difficult to admit you lost because of you. After every losing match, I like to replay each game over in my head to try to understand what happened. In the game, oftentimes we get tunnel vision and are so sure our opponent will do something based on the plays made so far. Maybe he is playing a control deck and he didn’t cast a removal spell on turn three so you assume he has a [card]Supreme Verdict[/card]. You play the rest of the game assuming he had the card and don’t commit enough to the board out of fear, and eventually you end up losing.

If we think about the match afterwards, it’s easy to pick up on things that we didn’t think about during the games. Maybe during gameplay you didn’t consider that the opponent mulliganned and could have kept a sketchy hand. Maybe he played [card]Divination[/card] on turn three to try to draw his fourth land. Maybe your threats were not big enough to warrant a removal spell. Maybe his plan was to play a [card]Jace, Architect of Thought[/card] to stop your attack. The point is, don’t let one possible play distract you from other potential reasons your opponent is playing a certain way.

The other person in the match to take a look at is yourself. Odds are you didn’t play perfectly. Maybe you made a bad attack, maybe you played your [card]Thoughtseize[/card] too early, maybe you played your creatures in an incorrect order, maybe you forgot a trigger, or maybe you forgot to do something obvious. When you realize that you made a mistake, things will go much better for you if you catch yourself before making that mistake again. But mistakes are not always obvious.

At a recent tournament, I had two bird tokens and a [card]Scion, of Vitu-Ghazi[/card] in play. I had a [card]Boon Satyr[/card] in hand. I wanted to get in as much damage as quickly as possible. He had one untapped mountain. I attacked with the bird tokens and wanted him to shock a bird and in response I would cast the Satyr. When he didn’t cast it I thought the coast was clear so I paid five mana to enchant my 1/1 flyer. He then cast shock in response. Afterwards I realized there was no reason for him to shock the bird and I should have waited. There was a lot more going on, but you get the basic idea.

Reevaluate Mulligans

Another area to improve is your mulliganning skill. Do you mulligan correctly? If not, you may be losing games because of it. You should be aware of what hands you keep against what opponents. One could write a whole article about how to mulligan, and I’m sure someone has, but just be aware that the mistakes could have happened as early as your starting hand.

 

Scion GW Update

For the last few weeks, I have been working on updating the GW list I have been playing. I noticed that a once-good matchup has been moving slowly towards the not-so-good side of the spectrum. Mono-Black Devotion used to be favorable, but a recent change to the list changed things. That move?

[card]Pack Rat[/card]. Times Four. In the Main.

It is very difficult to beat that card when played on turn two. This led to me adding two [card]Last Breath[/card] to the main. [card]Last Breath[/card] is very good at attacking [card]Master of Waves[/card]. I also shifted the deck to be more green to be able to attack through a [card]Blood Baron of Vizkopa[/card]. Here is my most recent list.

[deck title=GW Scion]

[Creatures]

*4 Experiment One

*4 Voice of Resurgence

*4 Fleecemane Lion

*1 Vitu-Ghazi Guildmage

*3 Loxodon Smiter

*4 Boon Satyr

*2 Polukranos, World Eater

*3 Scion of Vitu-Ghazi

[/Creatures]

[Spells]

*4 Selesnya Charm

*2 Last Breath

*1 Ajani, Caller of the Pride

*4 Advent of the Wurm

[/Spells]

[Land]

*4 Selesnya Guildgate

*4 Temple Garden

*7 Plains

*9 Forest

[/Land]

[Sideboard]

*1 Last Breath

*1 Trostani, Selesnya’s Voice

*1 Ratchet Bomb

*1 Pithing Needle

*1 Polukranos, World Eater

*2 Gift of Orzhova

*2 Glare of Heresy

*2 Mistcutter Hydra

*2 Rootborn Defenses

*2 Banisher Priest

[/Sideboard]

[/deck]

I played this list in a PTQ over the weekend and didn’t do so well. In fact, I didn’t win a match. My opponents were just so luc—eh—nevermind. I still like the deck and I will continue to work on it. I’m hoping we get some late Christmas presents in the next set for GW.

Have any tips to keep you from tilting? Have any questions about the changes to my GW decklist? Sound off in the comments. Thanks for reading.

Brainstorm Brewery #82 – 2013 Retrospective

2013 is in our rearview mirrors, and what a year it was. There were a lot of financially-relevant happenings in the year gone by, and the gang reminisces. What happened in 2013, and how can that help us look at 2014? What will we be ready for when history repeats itself? Tune in for a rundown of a year’s worth of financial news and all of your favorite inside gags—as well as the announcement of contest winners. Who baits Jason with a bad chemistry reference? Who is on the receiving end of some computer trash talk? More importantly, who won some fabulous prizes for helping out the cast? Find out the answer to all of these questions and more on an extra-large episode of your favorite Magic podcast that will leave you asking, “Why do they keep talking about Aluren?” This is Brainstorm Brewery.

 

  • StarCityGames had an announcement that impacted the future of Legacy. But how?
  • The banning of Bloodbraid Elf warped Modern.
  • Will players ever want to “pimp out” their Modern decks?
  • How did the increase in Magic Online redemption prices affect redemption?
  • The face of GPs changed this year—in some ways you might not have considered.
  • What do we do with a set like Dragon’s Maze?
  • What does the gang mean by “Aluren?”
  • Mutavault is discussed at length
  • What are the gang’s thoughts on Theros after a while to adjust?
  • What will the economics of From the Vault: Twenty look like in 2014?
  • Commander (2013 Edition) had a big impact. But how?
  • San Diego Comic-Con planeswalkers were a game changer.
  • What was the “MODOpocalypse”?
  • If you didn’t click this link before, don’t click it now.
  • What did Brainstorm Brewery accomplish as a brand in 2013? What does 2014 look like?
  • Shout outs go a bit long
  • Bet you can’t watch it just once.
  • If you are artistically inclined, the best Photoshop or alteration of either the video of Corbin hitting the light pole or a still frame from it wins a prize. Send entries to brainstormbrew at gmail dot com.
  • Want to be part of the Brainstorm Brewery Team? If you can write, stream, or Photoshop, or if you have a keen eye for design, contact altjason17 at gmail dot com to find out how you can join the fastest-growing brand in Magic.

 

Cabe Riseau produced the intro and outro music for Brainstorm Brewery.

 

Contact Us

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DJ Johnson – Getting Value Out of Lesser Commons and Uncommons

I don’t think I would be alone if I said that the MTG finance world is surrounded by a lot of misconceptions, especially as of late. With the recent [card]Splinter Twin[/card] and [card]Phyrexian Obliterator[/card] price spikes, speculators are pointed at maliciously. Casuals and grinders alike believe that those of us who want to make money in Magic are manipulating puppet strings behind the curtain to control the market and initiate price spikes. While this is not an article dedicated to disproving that misconception (the Brainstorm Brewery crew already discussed it in multiple recent episodes of the podcast, and my co-writer Anthony Capece addressed the topic in his incredibly well-written article Anatomy of a Spike), I’d like to bring up a different, less-discussed topic. If you ask most MTG financiers what the most profitable aspect of our game is, I think the most unanimous decision would be collection buying. If you have the cash on hand, buying a collection to piece out and sell can yield far more profits than speculation, value trading, or purchasing singles at FNM for buylist prices to later sell on TCGplayer or eBay.

The misconception is that there are still a lot of people who think that all of the value in a collection is held in the rares and high-dollar cards. While we all want to be the guy who goes to a garage sale and grabs the $50 shoe box of cards with a NM Revised [card]Underground Sea[/card] sticking out of the top, it’s probably not going to happen. It does on occasion, and I’m sure that someone will reply in the comments section about how they just found that exact collection yesterday, but stay with me for the sake of the argument. The objective of this piece is to show you how there can be a lot of value left between the cracks in the form of commons and uncommons, and they don’t even have to be the [card]Imperious Perfect[/card]s or [card]Merrow Reejeerey[/card]s of a collection. Those are common knowledge. We need to go deeper. We need to find the cards that nobody else cares about, the type left on draft tables for free pickings.

Turning Junk to Dollars

Most of these cards won’t be worth selling on eBay or TCGplayer, and it’ll be more effort than it’s worth to find a buyer or trade partner locally. That means we’ll have to resort to buylisting our diamonds in the rough in order to make a profit. I’ve mentioned this before, but there are two tools I like to use to make buylisting a less painful experience than it would otherwise be.

One of those methods is by inputting cards into Trader Tools at mtg.gg (requires an Insider subscription to Quiet Speculation). QS’s buylist aggregator is fast, simple, and removes stores that have a questionable history. You can also add cards to a list within the program and see the exact total of how much you’ll be getting from each store in advance. The downside is that seeing which stores are offering which prices is behind a paywall, so you need to be a QS Insider in order to get full value from Trader Tools.

A free alternative is MTGprice.com. They also have info on multiple buylists, but I have noticed that they omit some of the buylists that Trader Tools shows. If you don’t mind spending a bit more time for a bit more profit, use both. If you want to save even more time, follow my advice and restrict yourself to CardKingdom.com, ABUgames.com, and AdventuresOn.com. TrollandToad.com used to be at the top of my buylisting sites as well, but the amount of time it takes to process an order has steadly increased over the years. If you don’t mind waiting months to get paid, use T+T at your own risk.

While the process can be arduous and boring, it’s still a profitable way to spend an afternoon if you don’t have anything else going on. Turn on the TV, or put some music on, or listen to the latest episode of Brainstorm Brewery. Let’s take a look at some cards that I’ve found in piles of “stripped” commons and uncommons from a collection I bought somewhat recently, none of which are in Standard anymore, and none of these see heavy Modern or Legacy play like the obvious hits of [card]Kitchen Finks[/card], [card]Path to Exile[/card], [card]Brainstorm[/card], or [card]Hymn to Tourach[/card].

The Picks

  • [card]Mind Sculpt[/card] currently has a buylist price of $.19. Yep, casual players really love destroying each others’ decks, especially when they can’t afford Glimpse the Unthinkable, or if they want to play mono blue.
  • [card]Squadron Hawk[/card] only sees play very periodically in Modern Soul Sisters, but if a person needs one, they need a playset. If that person needs a playset, so do the online retailers. That’s why AdventuresOn.com is buying them at $.10. That may not seem like a whole lot, but every economics major in the world will tell you that every little bit counts.
  • [card]Fog Bank[/card] is a casual all-star, as many of my friends who do not play competitively tell me. In a mill deck that needs to not die while getting rid of the opposing 60 cards, [card]Fog Bank[/card] is a cheap blocker that lasts forever as long as the opponent doesn’t have removal. It also commands a price tag of at least a quarter in all of its editions, topping out at a little above $.75 for the original Commander copy.
  • [card]Vapor Snag[/card] is in the new Ninja Bear Delver Whatever deck that Travis Woo has been playing recently, but that hasn’t affected its price at all. The [card]Unsummon[/card] with bite has been buylistable ever since its rotation for quite a lot, as in $.24 to AdventuresOn for the New Phyrexia version. Or you could sell to Cardkingdom for a whopping $.39 for Duel Deck version.
  • [card]Spirit Mantle[/card] is another casual all-star, because giving your guys protection from their guys lets you hit them directly. Auras may get a bad reputation, but removal be damned, the core set version of these are $.43 to ABU Games, and the Planechase versions are $.65 to Card Kingdom.
  • [card]Go for the Throat[/card] rotated a while ago, and it was a valuable uncommon while it was in Standard. That hasn’t changed, and you can still buylist them for $.78 to ABU Games.
  • [card]Unburial Rites[/card] is in the same boat. It rotated, sees no play in Modern or Legacy, but it’s a reanimation spell that doesn’t mind getting dredged away. That earns it a price of $.17 to Adventures On, which adds up quickly if you happen to have a bunch still sitting in a box from previous Standard, like I did.
  • [card]Vampire Nighthawk[/card] is an interesting case. It’s been reprinted to death, but it has three extremely powerful keywords that work well in casual vampire decks, so the reprinted version is still worth quite a bit, up to $.69 each depending on the edition. Compare this to [card]Lingering Souls[/card], which sees even more Constructed play than Nighthawk does, has also been reprinted twice, and has a lower buylist price for both the Duel Deck and the DKA version. This is another great example of how strong a hold casual players have on the MTG market.
  • [card]Geosurge[/card] is something I’m not sure what to make of. It never saw Constructed play as a ritual because of the restrictions on what you can cast with it in addition to it costing RRRR, but it still has a buylist price of up to $.08. I guess casual players enjoy slamming down Shivan Dragon-esque monsters on turn 4 with only a single card, which is fine for both them and us.
  • [card]Rancor[/card] rotated along with [card]Vampire Nighthawk[/card], but the core set version can still buylist for almost $0.50 to Card Kingdom. Built-in aura insurance probably helps with that. It sees occasional play in the Modern Hexproof deck,
  • [card]Full Moon’s Rise[/card] and [card]Moonmist[/card] are worth $.10 and $.05 respectively, probably because people who missed out on Innistrad want to make their werewolf decks. I have long been advocating pulling these out of draft leftovers and piles of bulk that other people don’t care about, and now they’re finally worth something.
  • [card]Triumph of the Hordes[/card] is an extremely powerful [card]Overrun[/card] effect in EDH that can leave your opponent dead when they least expect it, and it can be buylisted for…okay, there are no stores that want it right now. Bear with me though, I’ve died to this thing in EDH more often than I want to admit, and it’s a whole mana cheaper than the original [card]Overrun[/card]. I’m fine with hoarding these somewhere until they’re worth $.15 or so. I don’t advocate going out to buy any, but if you ever go through bulk commons and uncommons looking for gems, there’s not really a downside to setting [card]Triumph of the Hordes[/card] aside.
  • [card]Mask of Avacyn[/card] is currently worth a dime to Adventures On, and I’ve seen it pop up on other buylists for up to $.20 at times. It’s a lot less expensive then [card]Lightning Greaves[/card] for players who want to keep their Commander decks on a light budget, and the power/toughness boost isn’t irrelevant in a format where 21 is a magic number.
  • [card]Palladium Myr[/card] lets any color jump from three to five mana in a single turn, and is a cheaper alternative for those who don’t want to buy [card]Coalition Relic[/card]s. Even though it’s vulnerable to almost all removal, these are a dime a piece to ABU Games.

What About Standard Cards?

While these casual cards are always great targets to pick out of bulk, I’m not going to assume that everyone has piles of unsorted commons and uncommons to dig through. For players who primarily deal with Standard cards, there is still hope. There are a lot of gems throughout Return to Ravnica block that you can buylist now to receive a nice sized check in the mail later. While many grinders I know look only for the [card]Magma Jets[/card], [card]Burning-Tree Emissary[/card]s and [card]Boros Charm[/card]s of a set, there is hidden value to be had elsewhere. Let’s see what RTR block brought us:

  • [card]Judge’s Familiar[/card] is up to $.23 on ABU Games from $.18 a couple of weeks ago. I recommend selling these now if you can, as I don’t see Mono-Blue Devotion ever being more powerful than it is now.
  • [card]Rakdos Cackler[/card] is sellable for $0.34 on ABU Games. Like the Familiar, I don’t see Cackler holding value post-rotation. It doesn’t seem to have any casual appeal, so if you have extra copies that you can’t unload elsewhere, this is a great way to get rid of them before they take their leave of Standard. At the very least, it’s a good idea to keep an eye on the price throughout their remaining year.
  • [card]Unflinching Courage[/card] doesn’t see much play at the moment, save for the sideboards of GW aggressive decks, but it’s worth almost a quarter to Adventures On. If you want to squeeze every bit of value out of these possible, I recommend waiting until Born of the Gods comes out with the GW temple. Having access to a non-gate dual land helps the chances for the voice of green white decks to resurge.
  • [card]Wight of Precinct Six[/card] is a Standard staple, and as such…wait, what? Yes, this creature is actually worth money, even though it sees no Standard play. This is a [card]Mind Sculpt[/card]-esque card whose value is sustained by players who want to put the top cards of their opponents’ decks into the graveyard, and then beat face with this guy and [card]Jace’s Phantasm[/card] (who is also worth a good amount of money for a casual uncommon from a recent core set). I wouldn’t be in such a hurry to get rid of these though, as the casual demand won’t fade upon rotation.
  • Interestingly enough, even some commons have value to buylists if their power and demand is high enough. At the time of this writing, you can dump 40 copies of [card]Frostburn Weird[/card] for $.04 each, and 39 copies of [card]Gray Merchant of Asphodel[/card] for $.07 to Adventures On. Prices like that aren’t worth making a buylist cart alone, but they’re a nice way to cover a small percentage of the shipping fees for sending in your cards.

As for the uncommons from Theros, I recommend picking up the ones that see even fringe Constructed play, or ones that you think have potential. When you’re at FNM drafting, here are some targets I recommend scavenging and holding for later if you get the chance:

  • [card]Dissolve[/card] only has a buylist price of $.10 at the moment, but [card]Dissipate[/card] went a lot higher than that in comparison when it was in Standard. you might be able to get $.30 each a year down the road.
  • [card]Nemesis of Mortals[/card] has synergy with the scavenge cards from RTR block, so it might fizzle out after RTR block rotates. People love their graveyard-based decks though, so maybe this will be an uncommon worth buylisting at some point this year.
  • [card]Magma Jet[/card] is only a quarter on the highest buylist, but you can actually just trade these off at a dollar a piece in your binder.
  • [card]Arena Athlete[/card] seems like it could be an all-star in the right hyper aggressive deck, in a [card]Lightning Mauler[/card]-esque role supplemented by [card]Titan’s[/card] Strength and other cheap heroic tricks. That card ended up being buylistable for almost a dollar, and Google Drive thinks “buylistable” is a word without me having to tell it to accept it. Huh.
  • [card]Fanatic of Mogis[/card] already gets a lot of attention for being able to just kill people on turn four, and there are certain grinders out there who ensure that RDW will never die. I can see this guy being sellable for more than the $.07 he’s worth now.
  • [card]Mogis’s Marauder[/card] and [card]Tormented Hero[/card] both currently play a role in a Rakdos aggro deck with [card]Xathrid Necromancer[/card], [card]Rakdos Cackler[/card] and [card]Rakdos Shred-Freak[/card]. Once Theros isn’t a 3x Draft format and supply becomes more limited later in the year, these two black aggressive cards may be able to hold their own at a solid quarter or more. They’ve already proven themselves in Constructed, so I don’t see the downside in putting them aside for later.

Extracting Value

Even though this article wasn’t full of tips to make big money on the next Modern speculation target, I hope it helped at least a few readers look at one of the more unexplored areas of MTG finance. Making money off of Magic isn’t all about rares, and it isn’t all about the obvious hallmark uncommons like [card]Manamorphose[/card], [card]Spell Snare[/card], and [card]Memnite[/card]. The best way to make money is by taking control of a field that nobody else knows about, and this seemed like an area that (at least in my locale) is largely unexplored and ignored. It doesn’t seem like much, but there’s very little effort required, and its a great feeling getting the checks in the mail from stores for taking cards that you had no use for anyway. Thanks a bunch for reading. As always, feel free to leave constructive criticism on either the topic of the article, or any way in which I could improve my writing in general.

Brian Dale – Investing 202: Corbin v.s Ryan, Round 1

Go big or go home. Two wrongs don’t make a right, but three rights do make a left. I am never going to see a merman, ever!

The Dow is up due to speculators. Oil is down due to speculators. These are common phrases in today’s investment  world. One would think that speculators are responsible for everything since the dinosaurs died off.  But with the exception of the rare “London whale,” the markets are moving based on 10,000 different factors and most speculators are just trying to scry the patterns.

A few, like the Brew Crew, put themselves out there as someone who should be followed. Today we are starting with Corbin ” It’s a Merfolk” Hosler versus Ryan “Baby Face” Bushard.   Click the “Hosts” link at the top of this page if you don’t know them. We are only looking at results today.

Before we dig into the results, some context. The Major League Baseball Hall of Fame is filled to the brim with players who failed at bat seven out of every 10 times. The highest-paid hedge funds in 2013 underperformed the markets by almost 20%. Donald Trump has filed for bankruptcy four times.  The bar for success in life is often very low. The expectations, on the other hand, are often very high.  Speculating on MTG cards is the act of guessing the drive and finances of 13 million people at the same time.

On To The Battle

This first round we will compare Corbin versus Ryan from the period starting Nov 1, 2012 going through,April 30th, 2013. During this time, each individual made a different number of calls.  So we are going to pretend like you went out and spent $100 on each and every card they said buy, and by coincidence you sold exactly $100 worth of every card they said to sell (If your are spazzing about the math here, please read Investing 201). Then we divided the profits by the number of trades.  We are going to start with the short-term results:

Ryan’s 30-day returns: 7% per trade

Corbin’s 30-day returns: 26% per trade

Okay, if we stopped here, everybody would be joining the cult of merfolk. Corbin’s average return per trade in the first 30 days was on average more then three times higher then  Ryan’s. Let’s take a look at some of Corbin’s average buy calls:

[card]Tree of Redemption[/card]: $0.50 –> $2.00 (300% profit)
[card]Cryptic Command[/card]: $18.00 –> $12.00 (-33% loss)

Here’s Ryan’s:

[card]Huntmaster of the Fells[/card]: $25 –> $30 (21% profit)
[card]Deathrite Shaman[/card]: $10 –> $14 (40% profit)

Corbin seems to be swinging for the fences, while Ryan is targeting cards with incremental value.  Next, let’s look at some sell calls.

Corbin:

[card]Thundermaw Hellkite[/card]: $30 –> $38  (-26% lost profit)
[card]Hellrider[/card]: $15 –> $6 (+60% added value)

Ryan:

Shock lands: $10.00 –> $9.00 (+10% added value)
[card]Mind Grind[/card]: $3.50 -> $2.50( +28% added value)

Again,  Ryan is going for incremental and Corbin is pointing to left field (I think that should be last baseball reference). Here’s the 30-day final call rates:

Corbin correctly called the direction of a card’s price 35% of the time.

Ryan correctly predicted the direction of a card’s price 37% of the time!

Remember that each card had to move 20% or more before we counted it as a win for each of these guys.

Now, using the assumption that you will hold cards more then 30 days, let’s look at the rest of our time line. Ryan is  more likely to give a target price and to change his opinion when the price changed dramatically. Corbin is more likely to double down. For example, Corbin said to sell [card]Thundermaw Hellkite[/card] at $30 in episode 33 and then picked it again as a sell at $40 in episode 35.

Let’s look at the card values at rotation. Corbin’s returns on picks through rotation were 41% per trade. He made the correct buy/sell calls 56% of the time. Ryan’s returns on picks through rotation were 21% per trade. He made the correct buy/sell calls 62% of the time

Again, Corbin’s returns are stronger, except they are little misleading. If you remove Corbin’s [card]Aven Mindcensor[/card] call ( 300%!), his returns drop to 32% per trade on average.  And 75% of his picks move more then 50% up or down after he picked them, while the Magic universe at large moved less the 20% in any one direction.  In the investment world, we call this a high Beta.

Conclusions

Corbin’s picks during this round were more high-risk, high-reward, while Ryan’s pick were incremental and value-driven.  A gambler (Gordon profile) will more then likely find Ryan’s pick unsatisfying. While an investor (Alex profile) who fears risk more then he desires gains will jettison Corbin’s picks too quickly to realize gains.

Join as next time we pit more Brew Crew members against each other!

Anthony Capece – Going Deep

I am not really one for the called shot in Magic finance. Aside from the fact that there is no accountability whatsoever, I’m not the type to deploy my capital based on one person’s opinion (unless that person is me). I read two or three Magic finance articles each week that use this methodology for specs:

“Card X is $5 right now but it should go to $10 (or some other arbitrary price) in some vaguely defined time frame that we can all agree is in the future. Just look at Card Y for proof and ignore the fact that it is a fundamentally flawed comparison and these cards have nothing in common. For further proof, see the recent increase in price of Card Z, which hindsight bias allows me to say was super obvious even though no one actually saw it coming. Anyway, if Card X catches on in whatever new deck is out there, though I have no reason to believe it will, we could be looking at $20. In closing, I’ll point out that casuals and EDH players will love this card, even though they won’t, making it a can’t-miss spec. Now let’s look at 15 other cards, so that even if I hit on one of the calls in this article, you will have a very slim chance of guessing which one it is.”

It’s impossible to convert a hundred poorly supported opinions into a good Magic finance plan. I won’t invest in anything I don’t feel like I understand very well, so called shots don’t have much value for me.

I’m going to talk about individual cards today, but instead of glossing over two dozen possible specs and tossing out a dollar figure for each, I’m going to dive deep on just a few cards. You will have a good understanding of how I reached my conclusion, so you can decide if you agree or disagree up front and act accordingly. Also, I’ll point out when the analysis is transferrable. If you understand the dynamics of [card]Snapcaster Mage[/card], for example, you really understand the dynamics of the post-rotation large-set Modern-staple rare. That means that [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] and [card]Thoughtseize[/card] are going to fit neatly into the same bucket.

So without further ado:

[card]Snapcaster Mage[/card]

As one of the most played cards in Modern, many financiers were looking forward to nabbing this card at a post-rotation discount. It stayed in a very tight range of $23-24 (all prices TCG Player mid unless otherwise noted) for most of its Standard life and has now dropped to about $19 with signs of leveling off. Snapcaster is a cornerstone creature of Modern, along with [card]Tarmogoyf[/card] and [card]Dark Confidant[/card], and conventional wisdom says that the price will eventually reflect this.

I’m staying away from this card, though. I think most people are falling into the trap of demand-only analysis with Snapcaster. I am in full agreement that Snapcaster will be a key card in Modern going forward, but demand isn’t the story here—the huge supply is. The card may look similar to Bob or ‘Goyf in playability, but the supply is drastically larger and that is going to keep the price down for quite a while. In fact, Snapcaster should not be compared to those cards at all. Take a look back at my article Rare is the New Uncommon for more on this.

Working against Snapcaster is that its Modern playability has been priced in for a long time. It was obvious from day one that it would be a Modern powerhouse, so most Modern players already have their set and aren’t letting go. Look at [card]Restoration Angel[/card] for comparison—it’s also a rare from that block that sees some Modern play, but players are clearly taking a wait-and-see approach with it. Sell it now, buy it back later if you need it. There is no question whether you need Snapcasters to be competitive in Modern, and that is why Resto lost almost 75% of its peak value while Snapcaster took a smaller 20% cut. This is a great card that will always be relevant in Modern, and that’s exactly why it’s priced at $19. There is no post-rotation discount to be found.

Snapcaster’s Modern saturation also severely limits the upside from a demand perspective. You really can’t play Snapcaster in too many more decks than it’s already in. What that means for a financier is that any meta shift in your favor will only bring an incremental price increase. There is no scenario where you double or triple up on Snapcaster any time soon and this is actually a pretty big negative in my eyes. You need some of your specs to hit big to be successful in Magic finance, so investing a bunch of money into something that has zero potential to do so is not usually a good plan. Especially at $19 a pop.

Opportunity cost is one of the most critical concepts in Magic finance. The game is exploding in popularity so virtually anything playable you buy is going to increase in value over time barring reprint. But as I’ve said before, a good Magic financier doesn’t spend his time finding good specs, he spends his time picking great specs out of a sea of good ones. I don’t doubt that you’ll make some money on Snapcaster if you hold it for several years, but I think you can make a whole lot more elsewhere.

At $19, I won’t go near Snapcaster—it’s way too expensive considering how many are out there. It’s a perfectly good time to buy a playset for Modern season, but that is where I would stop. If I had to guess, I’d say it will see a pretty drawn-out bottom and then drift back up into the low-mid $20’s over the next year or 18 months. That’s definitely not worth the huge investment this card would be at $19 per copy. [card]Snapcaster Mage[/card] is very much the prettiest girl at the bar this rotation, and I’m afraid we will have to find our value elsewhere.

As I mentioned above, much of this analysis will apply to [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] and [card]Thoughtseize[/card] when they rotate. I’m more excited about Deathrite because the lack of Standard play is keeping it at a much more reasonable price, and also because Return to Ravnica was on the bench for a while during Gatecrash. [card]Restoration Angel[/card] is similar in some ways. It sees much less Modern play but also comes much cheaper, and there are fewer out there. Like Snapcaster, I think it lacks big upside, but $5 is a lot less than $19 ,so I think it’s a fine spec.

[card]Craterhoof Behemoth[/card] and [card]Entreat the Angels[/card]

For all the same reasons I’m cold on Snapcaster Mage, I am excited about these cards.

These are third-set mythics, so right off the bat there are maybe half as many of each of these cards in existence as there are Snapcasters. Second, they are both under $5 as I write this [Editor’s note: Craterhoof Behemoth has ticked up to $7-8 since Anthony’ submission. Pay attention to this guy!]. That combination of small supply and low price tells me that these cards are powder kegs—if an uptick in demand ignites them, they will explode.

If you go back and look at Scars block, you will see that mythics bottom quickly and even fringe eternal playability (or strong casual playability) is enough to move them to the $7-10 mark a year after rotation. These two cards meet that requirement, both seeing Legacy play, so in the worst case you will be able to trade these away for a small to moderate gain a year from now.

The real seller is the upside, though. Both [card]Craterhoof Behemoth[/card] and [card]Entreat the Angels[/card] are exceptionally powerful and unique cards. Craterhoof is the single best card for a creature-combo kill and Entreat uses a potent mechanic that we may not see for a while due to the mixed reception it received (and the tough flavor fit). These cards are good enough for Modern but priced a notch above bulk. If they hit, the payoff will be big. This is exactly the risk/reward profile I am looking for—minimal downside with a chance to double or triple up within a year if things go well.

[card]Craterhoof Behemoth[/card] is already starting to tick up in paper, and it’s over 10 tix on MTGO. I’d be the first to tell you that a “sure thing” doesn’t exist in Magic finance (or life), but I can say that you won’t find a better candidate for the next spike than this card. Any appearance in a good Modern deck or just another Legacy top eight might be enough.

Entreat is a little more of a sleeper, but I still like it. The main reason that this card doesn’t see Modern play is the lack of card filtering—[card]Sensei’s Divining Top[/card], [card]Ponder[/card], [card]Brainstorm[/card], etc. really make this thing go in Legacy. There is a chance the scry cards in Theros get us there. Would a full set of scry lands plus [card]Magma Jet[/card] be enough to make miracles work in Modern? If not, how many new Modern-playable scry cards would we have to see in Born of the Gods or Journey into Nyx before UWR control with Entreat and [card]Terminus[/card] is viable? It goes without saying that Entreat will spike overnight if they ever unban [card]Ponder[/card] or [card]Preordain[/card] in Modern.

I can’t really say that [card]Craterhoof Behemoth[/card] or [card]Entreat the Angels[/card] will take off in Modern over the next year. I don’t predict demand. What I’m looking for is the risk/reward profile. Even if Entreat or Craterhoof don’t break out, you will probably make as much in the first year as you would have with [card]Snapcaster Mage[/card]. However, these cards come with a very special bonus that Snapcaster doesn’t—enormous upside. You just can’t pass that package up at $5. Heck, third-set mythics don’t even really need to do anything at all to spike to $30 (I’m looking at you, [card]Phyrexian Obliterator[/card]). Both of these cards are better than Obliterator, and they are dirt cheap.

Powerful mythics that get this cheap are always worth looking at. There are others in the Innistrad block that are good buys, although I don’t think they have as much upside. For example, the ship has sailed on Griselbrand.

Well, I’m already at my word cap so it looks like we’re stopping at three specs today. I’ll write more of these columns in the future if the feedback is positive.

Michael Cuevas – Weekend of January 4-5 Review

Over the holiday break, on New Year’s Eve,  I was fortunate enough to get married to a beautiful woman I love very much, who has been supportive and encouraging, and without whom I would not be writing this article.  Nika was the one who suggested that I take the opportunity to write for Brainstorm Brewery when I mentioned the possibility.  She allows me to play and write about Magic: The Gathering and chooses not to [card]Stifle[/Card] my passion for the game. Although she would generally prefer I don’t spend hours on end at my LGS, she understands that it is important to me.  For her love and support I am forever grateful.  If you take away nothing else, my one piece of advice this week is to surround yourself with people who support you in pursuing your passion and are quick to let you know when you are wrong.  I am quite ecstatic to have married my best friend to start 2014 and our life together.

Standard

SCG Open Indianapolis Standard Decks

This weekend was the first of the new year, and also brought us the first Star City Open of 2014.  The weekend was marked by yet another victory for Mono-Black Devotion.  I find it quite telling that  Owen Turtenwald showed up running a decklist full of four-ofs.  There wasn’t any new “tech” or any dramatic changes from the typical build.  He just showed up with the biggest, baddest deck in the format and won the tournament.  Not all that exciting.  But the mono-black list itself isn’t all that exciting, or complicated to play. It just wins games.

Mono-black runs four copies of [card]Mutavault[/card], as do many of the other top-tier decks in the format. As discussed on this past week’s Brainstorm Brewery podcast, [card]Mutavault[/card]’s outlandish price right now reflects its prevalence in the format.  It’s also quite a powerful card in its own right. However, its price is likely unstable, and I doubt seriously that [card]Mutavault[/card] can maintain this price point for its entire run in Standard.  It was printed as a rare, not a mythic.  I think that unless you are actively playing every copy of [card]Mutavault[/card] you own, you need to dump them.  I am only referring to non-foil, non-full art copies.  Foil copies of M14 [card]Mutavault[/card] are only $20 lower now than the Morningtide foils were before the reprint.

Mr. Andrew Shrout showed up to the Indianapolis open with a decklist that varied in a few notable ways from the decklist we saw him run at the Las Vegas Invitational last month.  It seems that he has modified his creature suite, lowering his curve and eliminating the need for [card]Elvish Mystic[/card]. He added four copies of [card]Soldier of the Pantheon[/card] and is now running a full eight one-drops.  The deck is also slightly less pre-boarded for blue decks, running fewer [card]Mistcutter Hydra[/card]s and fewer [card]Skylasher[/card]s in the main deck.  Shrout also moved the copy of [card]Last Breath[/card] from the mainboard to the sideboard.  While some of these choices were metagame calls, I think the list Shrout chose to run this weekend is overall a better build against an unknown metagame.  With the manabase for this deck getting better, look for it to continue to be a contender following the release of Born of the Gods.

Every week, it seems like there’s a group of players who show up with a new brew. This week those players were Brian Braun-Duin and Chris VanMeter.  Inspired by Keisuke Sato’s decklist from GP Shizuoka, BBD and CVM ran a GR Monsters list stacked with planeswalkers and the [card]Flesh // Blood[/card] tech that Brad Nelson previously championed.  This deck is resilient to the current metagame of control-based strategies because it runs eight main-deck planeswalkers and two in the sideboard.  As VanMeter suggests, I feel that [card]Xenagos, the Reveler[/card] is underrated right now.  At the current price point, it’s likely a safe acquisition.

Legacy

SCG Open Indianapolis Legacy Decks

Delver remained quite relevant this weekend. Only one RUG Delver pilot managed a top-eight finish, but several UWR Delver decks were in the mix.  I think it’s safe to say that at this juncture, UWR is the better deck against an unknown field of Legacy players.  [card]True-Name Nemesis[/card] is more effective in a shell that has access to [card]Stoneforge Mystic[/card] and equipment.  Specifically, [card]Umezawa’s Jitte[/card].

The new year also brought us a spike in the price of [card]Stoneforge Mystic[/card].  The kor artificer began a price spike with foil copies disappearing first, followed by non-foil copies.  This feels to me like a permanent price shift, rather than one of the more fleeting price changes that we have seen in recent months.  While the card may still see some price settling, I imagine there will be a new floor for copies of Stoneforge, although perhaps slightly lower than the $27 we see NM copies moving for at the moment, but $25 [card]Stoneforge Mystic[/card] is likely here to stay.

One of the most interesting decks from this weekend is the Jund Depths list that bullied all the other fair decks to a first-place finish.  [card]True-Name Nemesis[/card] has put [card]Diabolic Edict[/card] effects at a premium in Legacy.  I personally prefer my decks to win faster than paint dries, but this deck showed that it is quite viable.  It is unclear how this deck manages to beat traditional combo decks and it is likely quite weak in those types of match-ups.  The “Depths” portion of the deck’s namesake comes from the [card]Dark Depths[/Card] and [card]Thespian’s Stage[/card] combo.  While [card]Thespian’s Stage[/card] isn’t exactly a new speculation target, this card could pick up quite quickly in value as applications for the card continue to be found and created.  [card]Thespian’s Stage[/card] is an interesting target, because at 65 cents a piece, it has almost reached bulk-rare status.  No one is paying much attention to this card at the moment, and it can be acquired in large quantities for a relatively small amount of money.  While this card may never be anything but a bulk rare, the long-term potential for it is quite high.

When selecting speculation targets for the long-term, one should look for a card that provides a unique effect that will only get better as the card pools for eternal formats grow. [card]Thespian’s Stage[/card] fits this definition, and has already begun creeping into the Legacy format in decks such as Lands and Twelve-Post. This weekend, the card showed its efficacy in combination with [card]Dark Depths[/card].

It is quite exciting to see the Legacy metagame contort to answer the presence of a card like [card]True-Name Nemesis[/card].  While this card initially seemed too good, and many [Card]Ponder[/card]ed whether or not it should be banned altogether, it appears that we have only begun to scratch the surface of what decks might come to the fore-front.

Have thoughts on this weekend’s events or my picks here? Please share in the comments below!

Long-Term Plans – Building to Your Playgroup

Hey everyone!  Sorry for the hiatus. I hope everyone enjoyed their holidays.  I have been debating a lot of the future of this column and I’m writing a mini-article to bring the series up in the new year.

What’s changing, you ask?  I will be making the articles more poll-driven, with multiple per article to help shape the deck, as well as including some caveats for the inclusion of some cards in certain playgroups.   The goal is to have a deck built mostly by the community and I want to involve everyone as much as possible in the process!

How Competitive is Your Playgroup?

Today, I want to discuss the different ways to approach Commander from a playgroup perspective.  A lot of people have different views on how Commander should be played (French rules, don’t be a dick, etc.), but it’s important to match your deck’s competitiveness with those of the people you play with.  A lot of people play Commander as a more casual format for gunslinging fatties and generally just having a good, stress-free time.  Other people are coming just to win.  They are the kinds of guys that will play [card]Azusa, Lost but Seeking[/card] with [card]Crucible of Worlds[/card] and [card]Strip Mine[/card]. Some groups have a bunch of people playing Commander pre-cons straight out of the box.  You need to find the sweet spot to maximize the enjoyment of everyone at the table, because in the end, you can’t play Commander with a bunch of people that don’t have fun.

Figuring out how competitive your playgroup is is the key to having fun playing Commander.  There are a number of things you should consider when determining how people want to play the game.  The most obvious is the choice of Commander. Some Commanders are generally just much more abusive than others and consequently lead to much more competitive decks.  [card]Azusa, Lost but Seeking[/card], [card]Sharuum the Hegemon[/card], and [card]Niv-Mizzet, the Firemind[/card] are some of the more competitive Commanders.

Another thing to consider is what kind of spells they are playing.  Are the blue decks loaded with counterspells?  Is anyone playing Eldrazi? How synergistic are the spells that they are playing with their general?  Is the Sharuum player playing a [card]Mindslaver[/card]?

The last thing I look for is how much mana denial and acceleration they are playing.  Generally speaking, most players would rather play more acceleration and not much mana denial.  Only the highest tier of competitive players will end up playing cards like [card]Armageddon[/card] or recurring [card]Wasteland[/card]s and [card]Strip Mine[/card]s, and then you should be ready to fight to keep your mana.

I generally rate decks on a scale of 1 to 5 to determine how I should approach playing with that group.

1.  Precons:  They may not be homemade, but the power level of most of the cards is pretty low and the decks are pretty fair. Due to the fact that the decklists are readily available and you may know most of the cards in them, I think they are the lowest power level on the totem pole.

2. Rough Home Brews:  These are usually first-iteration decks that probably don’t have a mana curve and have a lot of pretty bad niche cards that haven’t been cut yet.  Many cards may be acting as filler while more expensive and powerful cards are purchased.

3. More Refined Brews:  These decks are usually third- or fourth-iteration decks that have fewer useless cards and better mana curves.  Most of the power cards are included unless they are very niche. These decks are a bit more competitive.

4. Final Version:  These decks are the last iteration of building and are when people usually start foiling them out.  They’ve committed to the card choices and have the most powerful versions of all spells to win.

5. Ultra Competitive: These decks are piloted in tournaments and personally I think ruin all the fun of Commander.  The only difference between Final Versions and Ultra Competitive is that Ultra Competitive decks include large amounts of mana denial.  I am a supporter of players being able to cast spells and having an interactive game.  Losing a game to a well-timed mana-denial spell is just the worst.

Matching your deck’s amount of “trying” is really important to get the most enjoyment out of playing Commander. Making sure you aren’t causing anyone to not have fun is imperative.

[poll id=”6″]

[poll id=”7″]

MtG After Hours #8 – Slick Pub Talk

This week’s episode comes from to episode 67 of Brainstorm Brewery with guest hosts Slick Jagger (@SlickJager) & Motyka (@mmotyka).  Come listen to the brainstorming process behind the beer that Motyka is creating for the podcast. The debut of Brainstorm Brewery’s Black IPA will happen at #GPMontreal this March!  Come learn a thing or two on this weeks After Hours!

MtG After Hours is basically all the good shit that gets cut on the editing floor. Often while recording a podcast, the banter that’s not being recorded for the show can sometime be better than the actual episode. Get a rare behind the scenes in to the minds of your favorite podcasters, the featured podcast will rotate each week.

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Andrew Colman – The Puzzle Box: Real Traditional Brown Section

Welcome to the Puzzle Box, everyone!

It has been an awesome Christmas season! Lots of family and food and beer. I’m lucky that my brother was the one to introduce me to Magic. I bring my cube and  we always fire couple of quick drafts after everyone has tired of each other. There was lots of watching the holiday cube while eating  Oma’s short bread and drinking some lambswool. Hope you had as much fun as I did!

We are coming to the end of our Puzzle Box building—we’ve got colorless this week and multicolored next week. I have seen a bunch of cool ideas from people on Twitter and in the comments section here on Brainstorm Brewery suggesting ways to continue with this series while sticking to the budget-yet-powerful theme. I had grand ideas of doing a “Pack to Puzzle Box” a la FMN Hero. But realistically, I’ve got school coming up again, then I’ll be heading to Europe for six weeks. From there I’ll be flying back and landing in Toronto, where I’ll engage in a three-year master’s degree at Trinity College at the University of Toronto.  All of this is to say that I don’t think I’ll have enough time to dedicate to getting out on a regular-enough basis to make that project worth while. Maybe after I’ve settled into a routine in Toronto and found a good  MTG scene I’ll engage in the “Pack to Puzzle Box Mission.” Or if I hear enough screams from the crowd maybe I’ll give it a shot. Lucky for me, chances of that are slim.

I’ll put it out again, if anyone out there knows where the good MTG scene in Toronto is,  please let me know.

Puzzle Box Artifact Section Ho!

I’ll start by saying it’s a good thing that we had some extra money from the red section left over. There was no way that this section could be $25. First of all, we’ve got more cards than the WUBRG sections and artifacts are inherently more expensive because they go in every deck everywhere ever.

The size of this cube is going to be really exciting for many reasons, but the colorless section is one that I am particularly looking forward to playing. Because we don’t have lots of the really broken stuff like the Mirrodin swords, Umezawa’s Friendship Ruiner ([card]Umezawa’s Jitte[/card]), or [card] Batterskull[/card], it means that underrated artifacts like [card]Zuran Orb[/card] , [card]Ankh of Mishra[/card], and [card]Mortar Pod[/card] will not be snap excluded from the a slot in a deck by the Jitte and will get some more regular play.

Luckily for us, there are some artifacts that are indeed very broken that do get to be included because of their banned status in most sanctioned formats. We get to include a card that could arguably be included in an extended list of the powered cards of Magic, the mentioned-in-previous-installments [card]Skullclamp[/card]. Also, [card]Tangle Wire[/card] is another of those absolutely backbreaking cards that we get to add to this list. If you have never resolved a [card]Tangle Wire[/card], let me take you through it.  You play it for three mana with four counters on it. You pass the turn and at the beginning of your opponents upkeep they have to tap four permanents. Your opponent probably does nothing and passes the turn, and at the beginning of your upkeep you remove a counter and tap three permanents, one of which is [card]Tangle Wire[/card], so only two pertinent cards. You pass and your opponent taps three permanents for a total of seven so far. You remove a counter and tap [card]Tangle Wire[/card] and one other permanent for a total of three relevant ones. On your opponent’s upkeep, he taps two more bringing his total to nine. On your turn remove a counter, tap only [card]Tangle Wire[/card], and go on with life. They tap their last permanent bringing the total number of permanents they had to tap to ten while you only tapped three.

[card]Bonehoard[/card] was an artifact that was tested out in many cubes when it was spoiled, but unfortunately, it ended up not being good enough for the very high-power cubes. Fortunately for us, our environment is not as powered and I think [card]Bonehoard[/card] will benefit from that. It should be made better by another fringy inclusion in [card]Mortar Pod[/card]. [card]Mogg Fanatic[/card] and its black version, [card]Fume Spitter[/card], are amazing cards and [card]Mortar Pod[/card] turns all of your outclassed creatures into a Mogg Fanatic. Green deck with lots of mana dorks that have outlasted their usefulness will turn into an extra few damage or spot removal for any X/1 creatures.

One of the concerns that I had at first was the [card]Tinker[/card] target count—I was one short of what I felt was optimal. With only two, [card]Sundering Titan[/card] and [card]Myr Battlesphere[/card], I did some digging and found [card]Steel Hellkite[/card]. A 5/5 flyer with with a conditional [card]Engineered Explosives[/card] is certainly no [card]Blightsteel Colossus[/card], but If you curve into it on turn three with a [card]Tinker[/card], you should be able to wipe most of their board the next turn and lock them out of the game. Of course, if you have a [card]Wurmcoil Engine[/card] or Colossus feel free to swap it out.

 

[deck title= Colorless List According to Type]
[Mana Artifacts]
Everflowing Chalice
Coldsteel Heart
Mind Stone
Darksteel Ingot
Worn Powerstone
[/Mana Artifacts]

[Equipment]
Bonesplitter
Trusty Machete
Skullclamp
Mortarpod
Grafted Wargear
Loxodon Warhammer
Bonehoard
[/Equipment]

[Utility Artifacts]
Zuran Orb
Black Vise
Pithing Needle
Ankh of Mishra
Ratchet Bomb
Crystal Ball
Mimic Vat
Tangle Wire
Icy Manipulator
Nevinyrral’s Disk
[/Utility Artifacts]

[Creatures]
Squee, Goblin Nabob
Perilous Myr
Phyrexian Revoker
Lodestone Golem
Masticore
Molten-Tail Masticore
Solemn Simulacrum
Precursor Golem
Steel Hellkite
Triskelion
Myr Battlesphere
Sundering Titan
[/Creatures]

[Land]
City of Brass
Evolving Wilds
Terramorphic Expanse
Grand Coliseum
Mishra’s Factory
[/Land]

[Other]
Noxious Revival
[/Other]
[/deck]

[deck title= List According to Cost]
[$3+]
Nevinyrral’s Disk
City of Brass
[/$3+]

[$2-$2.99]
Solemn Simulacrum
Skullclamp
[/$2-$2.99]

[$1-$1.99]
Grand Coliseum
Mishra’s Factory
Tangle Wire
Mimic Vat
[/$1-$1.99]

[$.50-$.99]
Pithing Needle
Masticore
Sundering Titan
Grafted Wargear
Coldsteel Heart
Squee, Goblin Nabob
Ratchet Bomb
Phyrexian Revoker
Warn Powerstone
[/.50-$.99]

[$.25-$.49]
Lodestone Golem
Ankh of Mishra
Molten-Tail Masticore
Everflowing Chalice
Myr Battlesphere
Steel Hellkite
Noxious Revival
Loxodon Warhammer
[/.25-$.49]

[$.01-$.24]
Icy Manipulator
Bonehoard
Triskelion
Black Vise
Zuran Orb
Crystal Ball
Mortarpod
Perilous Myr
Precursor Golem
Mind Stone
Evolving Wilds
Darksteel Ingot
Terramorphic Expanse
Trusty Machete
Bonesplitter
[/.01-$.24]
[/deck]

 

A couple of colored inclusions that you’ll notice in this list are [card]Squee, Goblin Nabob[/card] and [card]Noxious Revival[/card]. Squee just does a great many colorless things. One of my favorites is pitching him to [card]Fauna Shaman[/card] or [card]Masticore[/card] forever and ever. He’s one of the best [card]Skullclamp[/card] or [card]Mortarpod[/card] targets. If you use your imagination, Squee will be on your side! As for [card]Noxious Revival[/card], [card]Regrowth[/card] is good, and the fact that this only goes on top of you library is negated by the fact that it is free and instant speed. When you get miracles in your cube, they get way better in your opening hand when you have [card]Noxious Revival[/card] in your deck. And if need be, you can blank your opponent’s draw step by putting something useless from his graveyard on top of his library as well.

 

Remember, shoot me some more ideas on what you’d like to see in this column going forward, either here or on Twitter @awcolman, and I’ll do my best to oblige.

As always, thanks for hangin’.

Andrew

Brian Dale – Investing 201: Tracking

Investing 201: Tracking

Buy low sell, high. Double down when the dealer shows a six. Never get involved in a land war in Asia, but only slightly less well known is this—always track your progress. Ahahahahahaha…..haha…..ha………….

In today’s world of investing, the media will all too often glorify a wild call that went right. A hedge-fund manager can make dozens of bad investments, but if he calls the surprise fall of a major company, then he becomes the hero of Wall Street. In fact, unless it’s a high-profile individual, the media almost never tracks results. This leads many investors to jump on a bandwagon with three flat tires (or the Wild West equivalent).

This leads us to where we are now.

You are looking for ways to improve your MTG finance skills. You are learning the ropes and listening to Brainstorm Brewery (if not, then you can’t be very serious about it).  The Brew Crew each have thriving business interests and MTG finance cred in the community. And while they each track their own investments, this is the first time that they are taking the steps to review their podcast picks and share the results with the readers.

Methodology

Valuing

Every MTG financier purchases from different sites and trades for different values.  Some pick up a copy of a card at FNM, others buy 100 deep from TCG Player. However, most sites move up and down together over time.  So while the difference between TCG Player and Star City Games makes a difference for a single trade, for our tracking purposes all that matters is that we use the same source and the same investment amount for each trade. We are also using retail prices without accounting for commissions, fees, or buy-listing. We are assuming the retail value of the cards is the value of your portfolio.

Investing

In order to keep the high-value cards from overshadowing the cheaper cards, we will be “investing” $100 into each pick, buying two $50 cards or 10 $10 cards. This will sometimes lead to odd card amounts. For example, we would need 22.22 of a $4.50 card. You might be thinking, you can’t buy .22 of a card! Don’t freak out. The percentages scale just fine. “What about sales?” you ask. “You can’t profit from selling!”

On the contrary: If you sell a $100 card for cash, and then it drops to $1, your cash value is 100 times more than if you had done nothing. Also, if you know a way to short-sell magic cards, please call me ASAP!

Timing

Unless a ‘Crew member specifically mentions a change in opinion or an initial target price, we are assuming that you held onto or avoided the card based on the original recommendations. To that end, there will be two time-frames examined: the 30 days following the recommendation and the value of the card at rotation. Why rotation? Two reasons:

1. Standard card values are directly affected.

2. In this batch, rotation is at least six months following the Brew Crew pick.

Measuring Performance

There are many ways to measure performance. You could list total right and wrong. But what if someone is right 51% of the time, but all the bad picks drop 90%? What if someone is wrong 75% of the time but their wins are all 1000% gainers? Here’s the plan: we will be listing the Brew Crew’s win/loss percentages and their total combined returns. So, a 50% gain on card A and a -25% loss on card B will result in a portfolio gain of 25% and a win loss of 50/50.  Also, due to market inefficiency and transaction cost, any moves under +/-20% are considered “flat performers” for our purposes.

Results

Every person who plays Magic has a little MTG finance in them. Much like the player psychographics made famous by Mark Rosewater (Timmy, Johnny, Spike) there are also MTG finance psychographics: Alex and Gordon. Alex is the guy who, as a kid during Alpha, lost a little value when he traded his extra Mox for 10 awesome creatures to finish his collection.  Gordon (greed is good) Gecco is the guy who offers you buylist prices for your cards and SCG prices for his. More on these guys later.

Please remember these results are from a short time frame—a season if you like. Every season will have different challenges and timing.

Here are some teasers to whet your appetite:

  • Which Brew Crew member had a better season average than the Baseball Hall of Fame hitter Hugh Duffy?
  • Which Brew Crew member did in six months what Wall Street titans couldn’t do in 12?
  • Which Brew Crew member offered three trades on one podcast that EACH returned over 90% in under six months?

Stay tuned for future installments to see how the Crew members did on their picks!

 

Remember when we asked podcast listeners to volunteer to listen to old Brainstorm Brewery episodes and to tell us what our picks of the week were and what we said to do? Well, the data is in and Brian Dale has analyzed it and above is the introduction to his series where he will present the data and help you figure out which kind of investor you are and whose opinion you find yourself agreeing with more. Is one of the ‘Crew under or over-performing consistently? Are all four members making a net profit with their picks? The most important component of MTG Finance is accountability, and this series looks to keep the ‘Crew on their toestheir picks will be scrutinized. What’s going to come out? That’s half the fun! On behalf of Brainstorm Brewery, I would like to extend our heartfelt thanks to everyone who volunteered to mine our old episodes for this data. We hope when you see how it’s presented in this series you will agree it was worth it. – Jason Alt

Caleb Gothberg – Getting L.U.C.K.Y: Money Management, Part 1

The first item on my fearless personal inventory (discussed in my last article) is bad money management. If you are into the financial end of Magic in any way, shape, or form, bad money management should be at the top of your list as well. For most people, myself included, it is something that you learn the hard way. Unfortunately, money management mistakes will always cost you, but unlike play mistakes, these ones hits your wallet. After losing almost my entire collection to bad buying and selling, I think I’m pretty qualified to offer warnings in this department.  I hope that some of you can learn from my mistakes. Let’s get right down to it.

I won’t be able to cover every issue and would be more than happy to answer any individual issues that you may have. Today, we are just going to start with five. There are many more that could be covered, but these are my biggest five that have hindered my personal growth in MTG finance. If there is something you would like covered you can always comment with it or tweet it to me @CalebGothberg

 

Overspending

It is very easy to buy too much, too fast. Starting out, I sold most of my collection and used that money to start buying. I bought every card that someone would sell me. The first time that someone tried to sell me a collection it almost ruined me. My friend, let’s call him Richard, messaged me to let me know that he was looking to liquidate everything that he owned except his decks. Richard had other priorities in his life that he felt (and justifiably so) were more important than having a Magic collection. I was in deep enough that I had to visit a local dealer to turn cardboard to cash. Most of the things that had to be sold were on the way up. Because I needed the money so fast I had absolutely zero walk-away power.  I made about $300 on the collection but probably lost that much in selling what I had. If I wasn’t buying every card someone would sell me, I wouldn’t have had a problem buying that collection.

 

Underspending

 

It is also very possible to underspend. The only way you can make money in Magic is by keeping everything on both ends moving. Finding buying opportunities can be hit and miss. I hit one of those patches very recently. I had a month where I only bought about $200 worth of cards. Guess how much profit I made in that month? Absolutely none. Finally, I had enough and started scouring Craigslist for collections being sold. Just about every single one of those collections were listed for way too much to make enough any profit. I finally found some old posts that hadn’t been removed yet. After meeting with a few of them and trying to make it fair for both sides, a good opportunity finally popped up. He had been trying to sell his collection for quite some time and understood that he wasn’t going to get full price on his cards. The negotiations didn’t go quite as well as I would normally like, but we came to a reasonable point where we could both get what we needed. I had to grind more than I usually like to with a collection, but turned a decent enough profit to justify buying. In the end it was better than not making anything for the month.

There are many ways to go about buying Magic cards. My personal favorite is just working with people I have met through personal networking. They know what I do and understand that we can find something that will accomplish what we are both looking for. When I am in a bind, I will look to places like Craigslist or local trade groups. eBay is another good option that some people use as their primary source of card flow.

Buying High

One of the worst things to a speculator can do is buy a card that has already spiked. Whether it is by misinformation or emotional attachment, it can happen to anyone. For me, this card was [card]Wolfir Silverheart[/card]. I went too far into this card too late. I started buying in at around five dollars. I was into the hype enough at the time that I didn’t realize that it was on a permanent downturn. I held onto all 55 of my copies until rotation hit. I was sure it would see more play despite what the community thought of it. I ended up buylisting them for around fifty eight cents a piece for a net loss of $243.10. Had I not gotten emotionally wrapped up with the card I could have saved myself a couple hundred dollars.

The easiest way to avoid this type of situation is to be involved in the MTG finance community and pay attention to the appropriate forums. Other people with lots of experience are online all the time and are happy to help you out. When doing this, you need to keep in mind who the information is coming from. If the advice is from someone unknown that replied to your Reddit post and it contradicts what @JasonEAlt is saying on his Twitter account, it’s best to side with Jason’s experience. Twitter is a huge resource that I believe is incredibly underutilized. I am not always as active on posting as I should be, but I look at #mtgfinance all the time, as well as Trusted tweets from experienced financiers. If nothing else, you can always just listen to a certain financial podcast that will help you out when it comes to speculating. No matter how you slice it, research is almost always the key.

Selling Low

Have you ever been sitting on a card so long that it almost demands selling? It hasn’t moved from where you bought it so you aren’t losing anything anyway and you would like to have the money for other things. I find myself in this boat way more often than I would like to. Part of this is due to the fact that I have more buying opportunities than I have cash. The other part is I have severe ADD and have a hard time sitting on cards for any period of time. Recently it was [card]Blood Baron of Vizkopa[/card]. I bought into this card in late July and decided to dump them in September. It didn’t appear to have much upward movement being generated and I was starting to get a little skittish about it. I got back what I put into them but then a month later, it finally spiked as I had anticipated. I needed something a little more exciting and lost the chance of doubling my money on this card. It was a solid bet that everyone in the community seemed to be behind. But how do you know when something like this is going to happen?

You can never have 100% certainty in life, but you can get close. Research is usually your key in these situations as well. There will be some cards that will always be a safe bet and all you need is to pay attention to what trusted people are saying. Usually the Brainstorm Brewery podcast provides some pretty sound knowledge on the subject. If you pay attention to the podcast you can already have a leg up on figuring out what’s low and what’s high. There are also sites out there, both free and subscription-based, that have a wealth of information to share with you. In the age of the internet, there are plenty of places to look for this information.

Mixing Personal and Magic Finances

One of the biggest struggles that I have is how much money to put into Magic and how much to take out. For myself, I feel like the less that these two mix, the better. My next article will be on this subject. For now, if you can keep your personal finances separate, you will find yourself  much happier. You never want to put yourself in a situation where your hobby starts to affect your day to day living. That is all that I will say on the subject for now.

Stay tuned to Brainstorm Brewery for other articles that can help you avoid pitfalls that I haven’t covered yet. As always, welcome to the grind.

How do you keep Magic and personal finances straight and what advice would you give to a novice brewist?

All Magic Has a Price – #3 – Accounting for MTG

True Cost:
The lowest amount of real cash needed to acquire a card.

All Magic Has a Price

 

J. Graves
Tampa, FL

faceLogo

Let me know your thoughts at [email protected]
Follow @jwgravesFL

 

About AMHaP

All Magic Has a Price focuses on Magic: The Gathering finance from the player’s point of view. AMHaP discusses the true cost of playing Magic: The Gathering by reviewing strategies to acquire a playable collection of cards for Standard as a returning player, a new player, or a continuing player, and by discussing potential investment opportunities in older formats. AMHaP targets those of us that play casually and competitively on a local level, and AMHaP is written for casually competitive players by a casually competitive player. If one would like further explanation of the viewpoint and scope, please read: All Magic Has a Price Issue #1.

If you would like more information on determining true-cost value, please read: this article.

 

Accounting for MTG

True-Cost Value

I had gone through a divorce, and all my cards were gone. The game I loved was gone.

A couple of years later in 1998, I was driving down the road in Burnsville, Minnesota when I noticed a familiar sign, Magic: The Gathering. My heart fluttered—could it be? Is she back in my life?
Logo
This was when I first found Limited. Oh, what a neat concept. There were new rules, and the stack was all screwy. What do you mean damage on the stack? Yay for [card]Snap[/card]. Packs of Urza’s were selling for $2.75 apiece, and card prices were rising. I am a struggling musician. How can I afford to play this game?
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Playing on the internet, I stumbled upon eBay. eBay was a place to buy cards at a significantly cheaper price than the card shop. Cheaper cards made the game seem less expensive.

I began thinking to myself, Scrye was okay for trading, but if one really wanted to get the most value for the lowest cost, Scrye was not the source to determine value. eBay was. Why would I buy a card for $17.50 from the local shop or other internet retail site, when I could grab it from another MTG player for $9?

I fell in love with Draft the very first time I played in one. At prereleases, I would get the starter pack but  sometimes wouldn’t even play in the event. Instead, I would draft all day long. In those days, there were so many people at prereleases that they felt like Grands Prix. As I began to start winning in Limited, my collection grew.

I watched a couple Type 2 tournaments. Type 2 looked fun. I checked eBay for prices, and I found the prices to be extreme for the previous year’s block. Considering I would only get to play with the cards for another couple of months (except for in Extended), I couldn’t justify buying them.

I determined that I would wait, collect some cards, and play after rotation. I began bidding on eBay, and I bought cards that were low in price but were being played. My collection grew.

I noticed that by playing and winning at Limited, I could add additional value to my collection. In trades, I noticed that if I kept in mind the amount of real cash that it would take to acquire the card, I could add additional value to my collection.

I decided to stop thinking about cards at Scrye prices, and I focused on this new concept I had: true-cost value.

True Cost is the lowest amount of real cash needed to acquire a card.

True-Cost Value = the lowest amount of real cash needed to acquire a card, determined by an averaging the last 10 eBay sold auctions, including shipping, or the low on TCG Player, including shipping.

Whenever I traded, I stayed mindful of the TCV. I bought cards low in true cost and high in Scrye cost to trade. I studied Limited incessantly, because winning sometimes gave me 3-1 value in TCV. I continued buying low-cost, long-useful-life Type 2 cards. This became more fun than playing MTG. When rotation hit, I could play any deck I wanted. I loved it.

True-Cost Value is not going to help one win a PTQ, although it will help build a collection that allows one to attain a competitive deck. For the casual collector/player, which most of us are, TCV will help one to make better decisions as to how to spend a limited MTG budget.

I have never won a PTQ, but I have been a terror at a Friday Night Magic events. Magic: The Gathering can be an expensive game. Whenever possible, one should do his or her best to minimize the real cash needed to acquire cards by keeping in mind the true-cost value.

 

Selling

When one is looking to unload cards due to rotation, trading is superior to selling in retaining true-cost value. When trading, we will not have to worry about card-shop profits or eBay and PayPal fees.

If one cannot trade a card, other options exist. One can sell to the store, one can trade to the store for credit, one can sell on eBay, or one can attempt to sell on Craigslist or to friends.

Using SCG as a reference, selling to the store is an extremely low return. [card]Chandra, Pyromaster[/card] has a SCG buylist price of $8 and Channel Fireball has a buylist price of $10. Copies on eBay are selling for approximately $15.

Trading cards to the card shop, one can receive an additional 20% – 30%, approximately $10.40. The store credit is spent using the retail/SCG price. One is paying an additional 20% – 30% above TCV when using store credit. Store credit is a wash with real cash selling at buylist price, thus making this option almost identical to selling at buylist price.

In order to sell on eBay, one must pay eBay fees and Paypal fees. Paypal fees are, 2.9% + .30 cents. eBay fees include 10% of the total amount of the sale, and there are also fees for listings in excess of 50 per month.

Sunk Cost:
Money already spent and permanently lost.

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Chandra, Pyromaster

Click Here!

For example, Chandra is going for approximately $15 on eBay at the time of this writing. Calculating this by: 15 * 2.9 = .435 cents plus .30 cents, giving us a total of .735 cents, PayPal’s cut. For eBay, 15 * 10% = 1.50 dollars. So the total for eBay and PayPal charges is 2.235. Taking $2.24 from $15 leaves us with $12.76. One would receive $12.76 in TCV. eBay’s and PayPal’s combined fees in this example are 14.9%. If one can not trade the card, Paypal and eBay fees can be considered a sunk cost. My preferred shipping method costs 66 cents for postage, and 4×7 bubble wrap cushioned mailers cost 25 cents a piece.

Craigslist and other classified sites are primarily used to sell collections. Selling individual cards is rarely done, if ever, and doing so would be tedious. If one were looking to sell his or her entire collection, this could be an opportunity to receive 5% to 15% additional real cash than would be offered by the shop selling in bulk.

Unloading cards is not easy, and it seldom feels good. Trading is the best way to retain TCV. If one cannot trade, several options are available. Selling to the card shop, trading to the card shop for store credit, or selling one’s collection on Craigslist are a few of those options. Clearly selling on eBay, even though fees will be incurred, is the best way to sell unwanted or unneeded cards.

For additional information on selling cards, please listen to Jason, Marcel, Corbin, and Ryan on Brainstorm Brewery every Friday.

Logo

Foil Yoked Ox

Click Here!

 

Mail bag #2

AMHaP issue # 2 had a huge response on Reditt this last week. Thanks, you guys, I appreciate the feedback—even if it was critical. For the success of AMHaP and for me, that type of honest direct feedback is a necessity.

I took a beating for suggesting foil [card]Yoked Ox[/card] was worth one dollar in True-Cost Value. I had decided that normally I would not include it in TCV. I looked at the eBay sold auctions. Several foil [card]Yoked Ox[/card]en had been sold recently, and that led to the question: if foil Yoked Ox was selling on eBay, does that explicitly imply that someone wants them? And, if someone wants them enough to buy them, then would not someone want it in trade?

After reconsidering my position and taking into consideration the view point of those on Reddit, I have decided to continue with my position that there is value in foil Yoked Ox.

I also took some guff for suggesting that the point of drafting was to gain value. Please do not “next level” yourself by passing money. Leave the “Pro Pick” to the pros. Why would a Friday Night Magic event player pass a shock land when the entire point of drafting is to win and open a shock land or get store credit to buy a shock land? Take the shock land, smile a little and pass the pack. Honestly at a Friday Night Magic event, if you are pro level player, you should be able to win with one less card, right?

Besides the amazing passion from Reddit, a good discussion on the actual mailbag question was had on BrainstromBrewery.com. Some very good suggestions on buy opportunities were made.

Mail Bag Question #2: What value-priced card available in Theros do you believe will see play over the next 18-20 months?

[card]Soldier of Pantheon[/card] appeared most often. I agree this is a fantastic buy opportunity. [card]Whip of Erobos[/card] was also mentioned. I personally am not sure about this card; however, the source that suggested Whip is a source I trust. I would not be surprised if Whip was in a deck after or before rotation other than mono black. Then there was [card]Fleecmane Lion[/card]. This is by far the most exciting pick up at the moment, in my opinion. A card that costs WG for a 3/3 that becomes hexproof and indestructible seems really good to me. I love aggro. Getting a 3/3 creature for two mana with an upside? That is a win.

Thank you for the feedback guys.

 

Mail bag #3

Selling cards is difficult. Few avenues exist to retain true-cost value.

What other options are there for unloading unwanted cards?

Also, in the Full-Cost Method, one must account for hidden costs. What hidden costs are there in Magic: the Gathering, and what are some ways to lessen those hidden costs?

Lastly, how useful is mtgprice.com in determining values?

Thanks to all the readers of AMHaP. Please leave comments or feed back below. All you need is a name and an email address. If you think I am right, tell me. If you think I am dead wrong, please let me know so you and I can discuss. Thaeyde and CorpT, thanks for the awesome discussion, and I look forward to our next round.

Follow me on the Twitter machine @jwgravesFL

Sander van der Zee – The Value of an Opened Box

Hello and welcome everyone! This is Sander and today we are going to take a look at the viability of turning a box of product into a profitable venture. Or rather, what you have to do to not make it a straight-up loss of value. The price of a sealed box is often more than what any person could hope to get from the singles by opening it. The intrinsic value lies in the wrapper around the box, so to speak. That wrapper represents unknown possibility and the legitimacy of a draft format and thus those will be the biggest selling points of any sealed product. But what happens if someone does open a box of sealed product for the singles?

Magic-The-Gathering-New-Phyrexia-960x600-wide-wallpapers.net

Setting Some Goals

If we want to find out what happens if we place a value on an opened box – and where it can go – we can just make an educated guess, but that’s not what I want to do today. Rather, I have decided to make this a challenge to myself and a learning experience to both me and you, the reader. I have been sitting on a few New Phyrexia booster boxes which I have been selling at a steady pace for 145 euro each ($199) over the past couple of weeks. I am left with five of them and can’t help but wonder how much I could get this box to work for me if I ripped it open, considering the latest speculation and hype price jumps from cards such as [card]Phyrexian Obliterator[/card] and [card]Spellskite[/card].

In order to make this work I need to set goals. I just wrote two entire articles on the topic, so why not put it to work? Let’s turn this into a S.M.A.R.T. goal.

I want to make 145 euro (the value of the box if sold sealed) from selling cards obtained from the cards opened in, or traded with the singles of, a single New Phyrexia booster box before June 21, 2014.

This seems specific, measurable (145 euro),  attainable (the value of a sealed box and the singles within shouldn’t be astronomically far apart), relevant, and time-related (due 6/21/2014).

Rules

Before we launch ourselves head-first into this experiment, let’s discuss rules. In order to measure our progress in a reliable and fair way, we need to know what I can and cannot do.  I’ll sum up the guidelines for you:

  • I can both trade the cards from the box or sell the singles from the box directly.
  • I am not allowed to purchase cards with the money gained from selling the singles.
  • I am allowed to trade at any rate as long as the other trading party considers the deal fair. This means that if the values which we trade by aren’t equal to the actual value but provided by a website that the other party prefers, it is still considered fair.
  • I am not allowed to accept gifts or free cards to help me reach this goal

Note that Magic Card Market works a little different than TCG Player. Whereas TCGPlayer always takes 50 cents plus a 5% commission fee and forces the seller to provide the shipping, Magic Card Market only takes a 5% commission fee and has the customer be responsible for the shipping fee 100% of the time. This means I can actually sell cards for 10 cents and not shoot myself in the foot with a gold bullet every time I sell a crap rare. Now, let’s get to that box!

Cards of Interest

An hour and six sealed pool registrations later…

Here we have it. Six mythics, 30 rares, six foils, and a bunch of commons and uncommons. I have an entire Excel spreadsheet containing each card and the number of copies I have opened, but here I would like to highlight some of the opened rares. The Excel spreadsheet has commentary on every rare as well as some of the commons and uncommons, and might be fun to read for those of you that enjoy bad puns.

Click here for the spreadsheet: NPH

Mythic  (6/6)

[card]Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite[/card]

Elesh Norn, Elesh Vee, [card]Gifts Ungiven[/card] target. This is our most expensive Mythic in the entire box at 13 euro. That doesn’t bode well for us. Luckily, this card is enough in demand for the price to have actually gone up steadily since rotation. It even took me by surprise that is was 13 euro, rather than the seven or eight I was expecting.

[card]Jin-Gitaxias, Core Augur[/card] (2)

The Lord ’o Probes himself, Jin-Gitaxias.  If you thought your opponent resolving an Eldrazi was bad enough for you, this card is an even greater beating on the EDH table than an indestructible, annihilating beast. At 3.50 euro, I consider him to be vastly underrated and underpriced. With a little haggling I could likely get 4.0 to 4.50 euro for him in a trade, so I do not expect to straight-up sell this one immediately. Plus, I have two of them.

[card]Urabrask the Hidden[/card]

Hidden from play, that’s what he was during his life in Standard. At 2.50 euro this is the least influential Praetor, but much akin to his blue brother, this Mythic can be traded away for more than the 2.50 I would get from Magic Card Market. It’s all about finding the right people.

[card]Vorinclex, Voice of Hunger[/card]

Speaking of season’s beatings, this green Grinch sure delivers it. No presents for you while I get double? Sign me up. And at 4.50 euro, this thing is very–no, criminally–undervalued. While I suspect this card to rise once people realize that the Praetors are the new Eldrazi, I will try to hold onto this one for as long as I can in the coming six months. Remember that the rise in value of the Rise of Eldrazi set was followed shortly by the jump in price of the colorless monsters themselves.

[card]Sword of War and Peace[/card]

Ah, the timing is impeccable. No wait, you’re too late. Discarded by the wayside, only to be used in cubes and EDH decks. That said I am absolutely fine either trading or selling this sword at 11 euro. However, the price memory on this card could serve me well if I try to trade it away.

Foils (1/6)

Yes! We got lucky. We really had to get lucky since we didn’t get a [card]Karn Liberated[/card] or [card]Phyrexian Obliterator[/card], but this card makes up for it quite well.

[card]Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite[/card] (FOIL)

A foil Elesh Norn sells for 27.50 euro on Magic Card Market and that bodes pretty well. It’s just under the value of a regular [card]Karn Liberated[/card]. I am certain I won’t be stuck with this one forever, but it may take a little effort to out this one, either by trade or sale.

Rare (8/30)

[card]Spellskite[/card]

Here is one of the big hitters. With [card]Spellskite[/card] at 9.50, this will contribute quite a bit towards my goal. Despite being “just” a sideboard card, the demand for this little two-drop is very much present. Luckily, my goal falls within the Modern PTQ season, meaning I should be able to trade or sell this one for probably more than the 9.50 it’s currently worth.

[card]Birthing Pod[/card]

At 5 euro, this is still a sleeper. This card is too cheap. I already have an entire fat pack box full of these and I am sad that this one won’t join it, but instead I will try to use its low price as leverage to get more out of it in a trade.

[card]Phyrexian Metamorph[/card]

EDH and cube all-star. I have never been dissatisfied with a Phyrexian Metamorph in my hand and it’s a shame that this card doesn’t see play in Modern . Perhaps that will change, but at 2.50, this is a cheap card that I should really try to trade away to the EDH crowd for a premium.

[card]Puresteel Paladin[/card] (2)

The enchantress of equipment. There was misplaced hype as far as its price point in Standard at the release of New Phyrexia, but it is loved by the 60-card casual crowd. This is a fine man at 1 euro.

[card]Melira, Sylvok Outcast[/card]

Much like [card]Birthing Pod[/card] and [card]Spellskite[/card], this is an important piece of a Modern deck. I am fine trading this one away at 1.50 euro.

[card]Caged Sun[/card] (2)

Surprisingly enough, this is not as popular as [card]Gauntlet of Power[/card], yet limiting the gain only to yourself should be a huge boost in EDH. I believe this card will rise at some point in the next five years. I advise you to pick them up. 1.25 euro each (Gauntlet is 4).

[card]Myr Superion[/card]

Ubermyr! Were this card German it would have quintupled in price. Now I just need to find a Myr lover who will take it at 0.75 euro.

[card]Unwinding Clock[/card]

One thing about this card you didn’t know: it’s $1.50 on TCG Player. Go check for yourself. On Magic Card Market this thing is only 0.35 euro, but I certainly searched for all my other copies in the crap rare box. If you have any idea why it is so expensive in the U.S., please inform me!

Commons and Uncommons (12 / a whole bunch)

[card]Dispatch[/card]

This thing is still 1 euro. A nice tradeout, but the eternal metagame has to make a real shift if it wants to go up, considering it sees practically no play. Will need to out this to the casual crowd.

[card]Deceiver Exarach[/card] (4)

A staple in the [card]Splinter Twin[/card] combo deck. It also sees play in the Pod and UWR versions as well. 0.35 euro a piece makes for a 1.40 playset.

[card]Mental Misstep[/card] (3)

From 5 euro down to 0.5 euro. I sincerely doubt I can trade or sell these with any ease, although Peasant is a real thing over here and this card is quite good in that format.

[card]Gut Shot[/card]

This is my personal bias but I believe this card is worth mentioning. Any free spell is. This card has already seen play in Legacy and there is little reason it isn’t seeing play in Modern either with the large amount of one toughness creatures reaching from one- to three-drops. Getting an average of two mana ahead in a trade is always satisfying. That said, this thing is currently only 0.20 euro.

[card]Whipflare[/card] (3)

Foils go for around 7, non-foils around 0.20. I suspect a price correction will come in time, at least up to 0.50. This won’t happen within the next six months I would assume, but you never know. I will try to use urgency as a leverage to charge more for these in a trade during Modern events when people are scraping to get their decks together.

[card]Beast Within[/card] (2)

A roleplayer in Modern [card]Living End[/card] and an effect green shouldn’t have according to some people, making it desirable for EDH because green needs more powerful spells. Easy trades for 1 euro.

[card]Noxious Revival[/card] (2)

This thing went up when miracles were released and hasn’t dropped down incredibly much since then. You can still get 0.50 for this free spell, although this is one of the less-powerful ones.

[card]Mindcrank[/card] (2)

This thing. It is more expensive than the price memory serves. At $1.50 on TCG Player and 0.50 euro over here, this thing is a special one.

[card]Gitaxian Probe[/card] (8)

Such a staple. Remember when I said that free spells were good? They are even better if they draw you cards and are blue. Gitaxian Probes go for 1 euro a piece and opening 8 surely helps greatly. One of the reasons to have New Phyrexia is the amount of pure gold you can find in the commons and [card]Gitaxian Probe[/card] is the best of them.

[card]Vapor Snag[/card] (6)

Dreaded in Standard and it still sees some play in Modern, especially now that Travis Woo has been brewing with his [card]Disrupting Shoal[/card] deck (without actual results). It still sees play in Modern Fish so there will be some demand for it at 0.50.

[card]Geth’s Verdict[/card] (7)

Casual all-star and I even run three in my Modern GBw sideboard. It’s good against hexproof and the one damage isn’t irrelevant. At 0.35 euro, this trades especially well with casual people.

[card]Vault Skirge[/card] (8)

Part of the Modern Affinity list and that’s why it is 0.20. The Gateway promo version has hurt the price a little because nearly everyone owns a silly foil copy now.

Total Value and Prospects

After looking up the value of the cards sans the two-cent cards (most commons), I calculated the total value and I was quite surprised. I surpassed the 90 euro I bought the box for!

 

Total value:

€ 120,82

5% commission fee

€ 6,04

Actual value

€ 114,78

Box value

€ 145,00

Profit

-€ 30,22

 

We’re not quite at the 145 yet, though. There is still a 30-euro gap between the current value and my goal. Now it is up to me to close that gap.

In order to get to trading, I need to get out. My local magic community is rather small, no bigger than twenty people. That is not a whole lot of trading opportunity. Going out to Grands Prix isn’t worth it unless they’re in the Netherlands themselves. There is one Grand Prix in Holland this year, however it is not within the timeframe of my goal (Grand Prix Utrecht, August 8 through 10). This means I will have to pursue several minor events around the country and try to trade there, as well as make use of a Dutch Magic trading and community site, Nedermagic.nl. Despite the complications, I am fairly confident I can reach my goal of 30 euro within six months. Maybe we can make even more..

Outro

Well I hope you will enjoy this little challenge! If you want to participate yourself, go ahead! Pick a sealed box, mark down the value of the contents, compare it to the cost of the box, and start trading! Just add your info to the comments below, on the Reddit topic, or email me, and I’ll try to keep everyone updated on each participant’s progress every time I update the article series. You can reach me at [email protected] or @TheMeddlingMage on Twitter.

MtG After Hours #7 – Jason’s a Dick!

This week’s episode goes all the way be to episode 48 of Brainstorm Brewery.  Jason is in an extra salty mood and is mad at everyone, even the people he likes.  Will Corbin figure out how to post the show notes or w the cast fail without any direction.  When does the After Hours stop and the actual podcast begins.  All this and more on this week’s MtG After Hours.

Links to the broken leg injury WARNING it’s nasty:

The WTF Pic
Bench GIF

Another GIF

YouTube Video

7170_10200860353291703_839689636_n

MtG After Hours is basically all the good shit that gets cut on the editing floor. Often while recording a podcast, the banter that’s not being recorded for the show can sometime be better than the actual episode. Get a rare behind the scenes in to the minds of your favorite podcasters, the featured podcast will rotate each week.

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Andrew Colman- Serum Visions: Wassailing the Holiday Cube

Hello everyone and welcome back to Serum Visions!

 

It’s Christmas, it’s Christmas!

Well, actually, at the time of this writing it’s still Advent, but I went to the Royal Winnipeg ballet doing Tchaikovsky’s The Nutcracker last night and it sure is starting to feel like Christmas. And since I am writing for the future, Merry Christmas!!

Nothing says Christmas in the MTG community like the Holiday Cube. My goodness, I am so happy for twitch.tv. I have been watching so much cube streaming these last few days, it’s silly. I saw DZYL draft some absolute joke decks. There was the classic turn-one [card]Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre[/card] off of a [card]Black Lotus[/card] into [card]Channel[/card] opening hand. But what he didn’t do is play the [card]Karn Liberated[/card] that was also in his hand because it would have opened him up to losing to a turn one [card]Lightning Bolt[/card]. I’m not sure about you, but I would have gone for it! And the other deck that sent his sacred bell dinging (every time something goes his way he dings a bell) was his [card]Crucible of Worlds[/card]/[card]Strip Mine[/card]/[card]Wildfire[/card]/[card]Burning of Xinye[/card]/[card]Tanglewire[/card]/[card]Smokestack[/card]/[card]Rishadan Port[/card]/[card]Maze of Ith[/card] deck. It went 6-0, not even close, except for one close game where he beat a turn-three [card]Blightsteel Colossus[/card]. The deck was absolutely soul crushing. There was not a single bad draw during the whole six games. Merry Christmas.

Okay okay, I just needed to get some ridicupants cube stories out there to help bolster my other series. On to the beer.

This week’s topic is Christmas beer with a special focus on hot beer. Yes, hot beer. I am not talking about beers that have a really high alcohol percentage that have a really hot smell or nose, or even a beer that warms you on the way down. Nope, I am talking about a beer that you enjoy after you have heated it up on the stovetop and ladled into a mug or stein.

I’ll start with a little history, then discuss some of the style, and finish with a recipe, which will be our style of the week!

If I ask you to picture a beer in your mind’s eye, chances are good that you’ll see brown bottle or a can of lager with some condensation dripping down the side. Depending on how much football you watch, you might see some rather attractive females surrounding that beer, but that’s a whole other topic. If we were living a few hundred years ago, you would be instead be picturing a room temperature mug of ale being served to you by a bearded, jolly bartender in a tavern. The advent of lagers and artificial refrigeration contributed to the demise of the hot beer. Here’s how.

Before we had effective sanitation and refrigeration practices, there was a much higher chance of something undesirable getting into beer and giving it an infection, making it taste less than perfect. It’s important to note that infection is not necessarily a bad thing and is often sought for certain types of beers. We also need to know that not all infections are created equal. Some are described as smelling like rhino vomit that has sat in the sun a few hours, and others are not so bad, like lactic, which can give a very clean tart flavor to the beer. If a beer is not infected by the former it can still be very drinkable.

 

Wassailing

Traditional WassailingOne solution (often used in the 1600s) to masking the slightly undesirable flavor was heating and spicing the beer. This is very similar to mulling wine, except you’re using beer. The most popular version of a mulled beer is called Wassail. It’s named after a celebration for the health of the apple trees from Southern England. While doing research for this article, I found that the most popular version of Wassail seems to be Lambswool.  It blends the pulp of six apples into the spiced and heated beer and it creates a beautiful froth on the top of the cup that looks just like the wool of a lamb! However there are many versions of Wassail and it does not seem to have a definitive form. I’ll supply you with the two most popular preparations and you can decide for yourself which one you like best.

 

Recipes

Simple Mulled Beer

Recipes for this are greatly varied but there are some constants.

For the beer, use a brown or strong ale, and make sure it’s more malty than hoppy—this is not the time to embrace your inner hophead. A brown ale or a strong ale will work well. I haven’t seen any Belgian mulled beers so try and keep it American or British. I would look for a beer around 5-6% ABV (or more) with good malt character.

For the spices, use your favorite blend of Christmas spices: Cinnamon sticks for sure, nutmeg, clove, ginger, mace, allspice. The key here is to keep it light and make sure to start with a little and add extra if you’d like to taste them more. A good guide is to try and use around a teaspoon total per pint of whatever spices you decide to use .

Add some sugar—it seems like a tablespoon per pint is a good measure. You can use any type you like: honey, agave, brown sugar, whatever.

You may want some extra booze. Add half an ounce per pint (or more) of spiced rum, whiskey, Irish whiskey, or brandy. You could try gin, but leave vodka out of this one.

Finally, you’ll want s slice of citrus for garnish, either orange or lemon.

Mix everything but the citrus together in a pot. Bring to just below a simmer and take the pot off the heat and let it sit for five minutes. Ladle into a mug, add the slice of citrus, and enjoy!

 

And for the foodies in the crowd…

 

Lambswool Wassail DrinkLambswool

Recipe Ingredients:

1.5 liters (3 x 500ml bottles) of traditional real ale

6 small cooking apples, cored (Granny Smith)

1 nutmeg, freshly grated

1 tsp ground ginger

75g brown sugar

 

1. Roast the 6 apples for an hour at 250 degrees until soft and pulpy—the flesh should peel easily away from the skin.

2. Add the sugar to the bottom of a large pot. Add enough to beer to the bottom of the pan to dissolve the sugar. Try not to splash while stirring.

3. Add spices and the rest of the beer, keeping just below a simmer for a couple minutes.

4. Let rest off the fire for 10 minutes.

5. Separate the pulp from the skins of the apples and and blend the flesh smooth, you want no lumps in the final product.

6. Add the apple purée to the pot and let it steep for 30 minutes. Do not let the beer simmer on the fire at this point.

7. After 30 minutes, whisk vigorously or blend with a hand blender. If you mix long enough, the apple will froth up and look just like lamb’s wool.

8. Ladle it out into a tulip or stein and enjoy.

 

When you make one of these recipes this holiday season, shoot me a pic on Twitter @awcolman. You’re really going to love these drinks, and if you come up with or already have your own version, post it in the comment section because I would love to try some other recipes!

Please keep in mind that when alcohol is warmed it is absorbed into the body considerably faster than normal. Enjoy and drink responsibly. Please please don’t drink and drive this holiday season.

Merry Christmas and as always thanks for hangin’.

Andrew

Brainstorm Brewery #81 – Armchair Speculation

What do you do when a Travis Woo brew does the voodoo that a Woo brew do? That’s one of the questions on everyone’s minds this week as a card in Modern quintuples up overnight. Who’s buying these cards between $2 and $10? Is it a good buy at $10 anticipating $20? Should those of us with copies hold? This is becoming a regular occurrence lately and it’s hard to know what to do but the gang weighs in and substitutes a few better choices to make. Get ready to cringe as Corbin is grievously injured for your amusement and cringe harder when he regales you with how he spent his recovery period. Hear more conspiracy theories about the meaning behind “Born of the Gods” and how multicolored gods might be dealt with. Three quarters of the gang feels out of their depth discussing Magic Online prices, someone is still clicking cookies and it was apparently not certain the cast would even get recorded this time. Strap in for a bumpy ride on your favorite Magic podcast that will have you asking “How many weeks in a row are they going to mention Soldier of the Pantheon?”

  • The cast starts as all good casts do, with a discussion of something silly from Reddit that apparently isn’t as controversial as one of the hosts thought.
  • Pick of the Week is all solid info spanning multiple formats and platforms. It isn’t to be missed.
  • Marcel has a question about what to do about a card that has hit a record high on MTGO. The gang weighs in.
  • Is Disrupting Shoal a Splinter Twin or an Aluren?
  • What is the hashtag #OKinepts for?
  • Seriously, watch this again. You can actually hear a loud metal pinging sound.
  • If you are artistically inclined, the best photoshop or alteration of either the video of “Corbin Hits a Light Pole” or a still frame from it wins a prize. Send entries to [email protected]
  • Want to be part of the Brainstorm Brewery Team? If you can write, edit, photoshop or have a keen eye for design, contact [email protected] to find out how you can join the fastest-growing brand in Magic.

 

Cabe Riseau produced the intro and outro music for Brainstorm Brewery.

 

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Kirsin Koch – When Nukes Hit the Commander Playgroup: The Standard Commander Challenge

It is entirely likely that many a Commander playgroup is approaching the final stretch of the arms race to build increasingly powerful decks full of format staples. And why not? Thanks to Eternal players and speculators seeking to offload extra pieces of the Mind Seize deck, there is a massive influx of Commander 2013 product. [card]Command Tower[/card] and [card]Sol Ring[/card] are currently affordable format staples for Commander players. However, as everyone knows, the glory of Magic is the flexibility of its deck building possibilities. As Mark Rosewater so often says, “Restriction breeds creativity.”

Earlier this year, Redditor 956Wulfe asked for deck-building advice regarding a local game store hosting a Standard Commander Challenge. The idea of a limited Commander card pool has been explored in the past. Cassidy Silver last dealt with this type of deck-building challenge when Scars of Mirrodin block was legal, building a Glissa the Traitor deck. Sheldon Menery completely dismissed the Standard Commander format as it lacks long-forgotten cards he likes to play and he feels it’s those cards that are the point of Commander. However, Sheldon’s conclusions arequite franklyvery wrong. A Standard Commander format is an interesting challenge to all player types and inspires worthy exploration and innovation.

A playgroup may wish to try Standard Commander format for any number of reasons. First, Cassidy Silver previously noted that Standard Commander decks are a good way to depower any gaming group that has “launched the nukes.” Second, the limited Standard card pool allows deeper exploration of lesser-played card interactions. Standard Commander decks may generate some of the same surprise factor that Limited players enjoy. Third is the financial factor. If a playgroup is trying to incorporate players who are newer, lack older cards, or scale down card purchasing, Standard Commander encourages a more level footing between the various players in the group. It’s very difficult to be priced out of a format when everyone only needs one of a card and is able to play the same set of cards. Finally, a Standard Commander format also has about the same power level as the Commander 2013 product, encouraging interaction between the two. It is very easy for a player to build a Standard Commander deck out of his draft winnings/table leftovers, a Return to Ravnica-block intro deck, and the local game store’s bulk rare box. A deck like this would be competitive with the decks of players opening brand new Commander 2013 decks.

This four-part series will first cover deck-building highlights such as key cards available for typical strategies. Subsequent articles will discuss sample mono-colored deck lists and highlights, Return to Ravnica guild-colored decklists and highlights, and finally the Gatecrash guilds will be given the same treatment. There will also be some financial suggestions for the Standard player as to cards they may come across while building these decks.

Deck Building Considerations

Tutors

There are a few notable observations to make regarding the current Standard card pool. First, the current Standard Commander format, like many New World Order-designed Standard environments, has a minimal number of tutors, reducing the consistency that Eternal Commander can engender. Of all the available tutors, only black’s [card]Diabolic Tutor[/card] is completely unconditional. If a combo deck actually existed in Standard, the lack of tutors in a singleton format like Commander would make combo decks even more unlikely and aggro, control, and midrange strategies the de facto archetypes. The available tutors currently in Standard are:

Black:
[card]Diabolic Tutor[/card]

The only unconditional tutor. Orzhov, Dimir, Rakdos, Golgari, and mono-black decks will all run this card.

Green:
[card]Gatecreeper Vine[/card]
[card]Lay of the Land[/card]
[card]Seek the Horizon[/card]

Each of green’s tutors are functionally counterable basic landcycling and fairly mediocre with the amount of color fixing and mana ramp available in the format.

Izzet:
[card]Firemind’s Foresight[/card]

[card]Firemind’s Foresight[/card] may cost 5UR, but it gets a combination of cards like [card]Dissolve[/card], [card]Cyclonic Rift[/card], and [card]Blustersquall[/card]. Thanks to the overload mechanic, this is an excellent card for Izzet decks.

Golgari:
[card]Jarad’s Orders[/card]

The ability to both [card]Entomb[/card] and [card]Eladamri’s Call[/card] at the same time will work very well for Golgari.

Artifact:
[card]Ring of Three Wishes[/card]
[card]Traveler’s Amulet[/card]

Any player building for a Standard Commander challenge in today’s Standard should presume that each opponent will be running [card]Ring of Three Wishes[/card]. It’s comparable to a slightly-more-expensive [card]Jayemdae Tome[/card] for decks lacking card draw and is an obvious, extremely-strong multiple-use tutor, especially for control and ramp decks. Lastly, [card]Traveler’s Amulet[/card] functions as a basic landcycling spell for all decks.

Mana Acceleration

Ramp decks must have a strong green component. Outside of [card]Chromatic Lantern[/card], [card]Darksteel Ingot[/card], guild Cluestones, guild Keyrunes, and [card]Opaline Unicorn[/card], non-green Standard Commander decks have few options. Green decks can utilize up to twelve additional mana accelerants and/or mana fixers which include:

[card]Axebane Guardian[/card]
[card]Elvish Mystic[/card]
[card]Gyre Sage[/card]
[card]Into the Wilds[/card]
[card]Karametra’s Acolyte[/card]
[card]Mana Bloom[/card]
[card]Manaweft Sliver[/card]
[card]Ordeal of Nylea[/card]
[card]Sylvan Caryatid[/card]
[card]Verdant Haven[/card]
[card]Voyaging Satyr[/card]
[card]Deathrite Shaman[/card]

Obviously Nylea, Selesnya, Simic, Golgari, and Gruul decks will have a very specific advantage over other Standard Commander decks. In addition to these available green cards, don’t be surprised if every deck runs a copy of [card]Burnished Hart[/card] as a colorless substitute for [card]Ranger’s Path[/card] to accelerate or fix mana. Most mono-colored decks will also try to squeeze in [card]Chromatic Lantern[/card] and [card]Darksteel Ingot[/card] for additional mana ramp. All the guild-colored decks will most likely run the appropriate guild Cluestone and Keyrune for additional card draw and battlefield body. Some players will happily note that [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] has some difficulty maintaining its normal mana ramp effectiveness in this format due to lack of fetchlands and mass land destruction.

Financially, [card]Chromatic Lantern[/card] is an excellent foil to pick up for Commander. The card’s relevance despite its comparison to [card]Coalition Relic[/card] is undisputed and will be a staple for years. [card]Burnished Hart[/card] in foil is another card to keep an eye on as a possible Commander staple. The ability to recur [card]Burnished Hart[/card] and immediately fetch out two more lands is very appealing to graveyard recursion decks such as [card]Karador, Ghost Chieftain[/card] or Golgari decks such as [card]Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord[/card].

Card Advantage

Most importantly, card draw is heavily concentrated in blue, black, and green, putting white, red, and Boros decks at quite a disadvantage. Izzet has a superior amount of card draw with [card]Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius[/card] as a Commander and [card]Mercurial Chemister[/card] in the deck. [card]Mercurial Chemister[/card] is a creature that has been showing up more often in Grixis Eternal Commander decks and has proven its worth to both repeatedly draw cards and remove creatures. Simic similarly has lots of options for card draw with [card]Prime Speaker Zegana[/card] being a Commander, but is less abusable than [card]Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius[/card]. (Red is not included on the below list because none of the cards offer consistently pure card advantage.)

Blue:
[card]Bident of Thassa[/card]
[card]Divination[/card]
[card]Inspiration[/card]
[card]Jace, Architect of Thought[/card]
[card]Jace, Memory Adept[/card]
[card]Opportunity[/card]
[card]Ordeal of Thassa[/card]
[card]Prescient Sphinx[/card]
[card]Prognostic Sphinx[/card]
[card]Scroll Thief[/card]
[card]Stealer of Secrets[/card]
[card]Thassa’s Emissary[/card]
[card]Thassa, God of the Sea[/card]
[card]Windreader Sphinx[/card]

As expected, blue will have vanilla draw spells, repeatable draw triggers, and repeatable scrying to find key cards and refill the hand.

Black:
[card]Liliana of the Dark Realms[/card]
[card]Altar’s Reap[/card]
[card]Blood Scrivener[/card]
[card]Dark Prophecy[/card]
[card]Erebos, God of the Dead[/card]
[card]Read the Bones[/card]
[card]Underworld Connections[/card]

Black will have to deal with sacrificing creatures or paying life to draw cards. The trade-off will be frequently worth it. Financially, it may be worth it to try and pick up foil [card]Read the Bones[/card] as a throw-in on trades. The card has been discussed by Vintage players as very playable and is an excellent utility staple for Eternal Commander players.

Green:
[card]Garruk’s Horde[/card]
[card]Garruk, Caller of Beasts[/card]
[card]Nylea’s Presence[/card]
[card]Seek the Horizon[/card]
[card]Warriors’ Lesson[/card]

If green needs to put creatures or lands into hand or is able to do damage with creatures, these are the cards to expect.

Azorious:
[card]Isperia, Supreme Judge[/card]
[card]Righteous Authority[/card]
[card]Sphinx’s Revelation[/card]

Orzhov:
[card]Triad of Fates[/card]

Conditional and slow, [card]Triad of Fates[/card] is a terrible draw engine that opponents can probably dismiss. It’s only included on this list for completeness.

Dimir:
[card]Bane Alley Broker[/card]
[card]Coerced Confession[/card]
[card]Notion Thief[/card]
[card]Pilfered Plans[/card]
[card]Soul Ransom[/card]
[card]Whispering Madness[/card]

For blue and black, most of the Dimir cards are less noteworthy than the straight mono-blue or mono-black cards available. [card]Notion Thief[/card], [card]Pilfered Plans[/card], and [card]Whispering Madness[/card] are the exceptions.

Izzet:
[card]Blast of Genius[/card]
[card]Mercurial Chemister[/card]
[card]Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius[/card]
[card]Steam Augury[/card]
[card]Thoughtflare[/card]

Simic:
[card]Bred for the Hunt[/card]
[card]Give // Take[/card]
[card]Prime Speaker Zegana[/card]
[card]Unexpected Results[/card]
[card]Urban Evolution[/card]
[card]Zameck Guildmage[/card]

Most of the Simic draw spells are conditional on +1/+1 counters or functionally work as cycling. [card]Prime Speaker Zegana[/card] and [card]Urban Evolution[/card] are the exceptions. Both of these cards are excellent pick-ups in foil.

Golgari (repeatable, conditional scrying):
[card]Reaper of the Wilds[/card]

This card’s effect is very unique in Magic, particularly for Golgari colors, and picking up some foil copies as trade throw-ins may be a good idea.

Artifact (repeatable scrying):
[card]Witches’ Eye[/card]

[card]Witches’ Eye[/card] is possibly one of the most interestingly innocuous cards available to a Standard Commander deck. For the sorcery speed cost of {2} and tapping a creature, any deck can scry repeatedly regardless of color. This is as close to [card]Crystal Ball[/card] as a deck builder will find in this environment outside of [card]Thassa, God of the Sea[/card]. Since [card]Crystal Ball[/card] is often called a “budget player’s [card]Sensei’s Divining Top[/card]” by Commander players, this card may have its place in the environment.

Creature Removal

Lastly, creature removal will most likely be one of the most difficult aspects of a Standard Commander challenge. This format is missing many of the more-efficient, non-conditional, flexible, and instant-speed staples and board wipes available in the Eternal card pool. Mass creature removal is mostly the domain of white and blue, making Azorious the most obvious creature and board control guild. Due to the power of the Theros gods, cards that can exile a creature should probably be given “staple” status. A list of possible removal and board wipes in Standard Commander looks like this, but is not a conclusive list:

White:
[card]Angelic Edict[/card]
[card]Angel of Serenity[/card]
[card]Banisher Priest[/card]
[card]Celestial Flare[/card]
[card]Elspeth, Sun’s Champion[/card]
[card]Luminate Primordial[/card]
[card]Spear of Heliod[/card]
[card]Planar Cleansing[/card]
[card]Trostani’s Judgment[/card]

Blue:
[card]Ætherize[/card]
[card]Colossal Whale[/card]
[card]Curse of Swine[/card]
[card]Cyclonic Rift[/card]
[card]Rapid Hybridization[/card]
[card]Sea God’s Revenge[/card]
[card]Voyage’s End[/card]

Black:
[card]Assassin’s Strike[/card]
[card]Doom Blade[/card]
[card]Grisly Spectacle[/card]
[card]Hero’s Downfall[/card]
[card]Keepsake Gorgon[/card]
[card]Launch Party[/card]
[card]Liturgy of Blood[/card]
[card]Shadowborn Demon[/card]
[card]Sip of Hemlock[/card]
[card]Ultimate Price[/card]

Red:
[card]Anger of the Gods[/card]

Azorious:
[card]Azorious Charm[/card]
[card]Detention Sphere[/card]
[card]Supreme Verdict[/card]

Orzhov:
[card]Ashen Rider[/card]
[card]High Priest of Penance[/card]
[card]Merciless Eviction[/card]
[card]Teysa, Envoy of Ghosts[/card]
[card]Triad of Fates[/card]

Boros:
[card]Chained to the Rocks[/card]

Selesnya:
[card]Selesnya Charm[/card]

Dimir:
[card]Far/Away[/card]

Simic:
[card]Simic Charm[/card]

Rakdos:
[card]Dreadbore[/card]

Golgari:
[card]Gaze of Granite[/card]
[card]Putrefy[/card]
[card]Vraska the Unseen[/card]

Colorless:
[card]Ratchet Bomb[/card]
[card]Volatile Rig[/card]

The Mana Base

Decks in a Standard Commander format are quite limited in the number of utility lands and dual lands available. Two of the three types of dual lands (the ten guild Gates and five scrying Temples) must enter the battlefield tapped, further reducing the speed of non-green decks. The third type, shocklands, allow the expected flexibility with loss of life, but have no stereotypical fetchlands to pair with them. The remaining utility lands that are applicable to the format are:

[card]Encroaching Wastes[/card]
[card]Grove of the Guardian[/card]
[card]Mutavault[/card]
[card]Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx[/card]
[card]Rogue’s Passage[/card]
[card]Shimmering Grotto[/card]
[card]Thespian’s Stage[/card]
[card]Transguild Promenade[/card]
[card]Unknown Shores[/card]

A player using [card]Encroaching Wastes[/card] has the possibility to knock an opponent out of a crucial color or utility land at the right time. It is reasonable to assume every deck will be running [card]Encroaching Wastes[/card]. Due to this safe presumption, Standard Commander brewers will probably want avoid running [card]Shimmering Grotto[/card], [card]Thespian’s Stage[/card], [card]Transguild Promenade[/card], and [card]Unknown Shores[/card]. Additionally, [card]Shimmering Grotto[/card] and [card]Unknown Shores[/card] are simply inefficient to use and are unfetchable with [card]Burnished Hart[/card], making them even less desirable. Basic lands are less flexible, but they’re much less complicated in this narrow card pool.

Summation

Notably, Standard Commander is currently missing many stereotypical “enters the battlefield” creatures, exceptionally strong Equipment, and graveyard value recursion. For instance, there is currently no cheap, targeted instant speed removal for white (e.g. [card]Swords to Plowshares[/card], [card]Path to Exile[/card]), blue hard counterspells that cost less than 3 or have “draw a card” text, and flexible noncreature removal (e.g. [card]Acidic Slime[/card]) for green. The Gatecrash Primordial cycle should also have an even larger impact on longer games than they already do in Eternal Commander due to slower game development and lack of efficient board control cards. Additionally, the mana base of each deck will be impacted with the limitation of dual lands and decks run an increased risk of mana issues.

One of the issues that Standard Commander playersparticularly players that power down from Eternal or Modern Standard to this formatwill notice is how noncreature cards are more problematic or impactful without the ability to answer those threats. The Theros indestructible gods will be glaring for players’ inability to react outside of [card]Angelic Edict[/card], [card]Trostani’s Judgment[/card], [card]Fade into Antiquity[/card], [card]Council of the Absolute[/card], [card]Merciless Eviction[/card], or counterspells. Once a Theros god enters the battlefield, the legendary permanent will continually impact the game until it is over.

Interestingly, this Standard Commander card pool has some startling synergies that will be quite entertaining for Johnny-type players and, as previously mentioned, hearken back to Limited drafting strategies and give them extended life. For instance, [card]Trading Post[/card] allows you to recycle [card]Vial of Poison[/card] and [card]Prophetic Prism[/card]. [card]Bubbling Cauldron[/card] turns your creatures into 4/4 Angels with [card]Angelic Accord[/card]. [card]Shadowborn Apostle[/card] tutors for demons. It’s this aspect that make for a very potentially interactive and refreshing format between players that should energize playgroups willing to sleeve up a Standard Commander deck.

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