Episode Archives

Caleb Gothberg – Getting L.U.C.K.Y: Money Management, Part 1

The first item on my fearless personal inventory (discussed in my last article) is bad money management. If you are into the financial end of Magic in any way, shape, or form, bad money management should be at the top of your list as well. For most people, myself included, it is something that you learn the hard way. Unfortunately, money management mistakes will always cost you, but unlike play mistakes, these ones hits your wallet. After losing almost my entire collection to bad buying and selling, I think I’m pretty qualified to offer warnings in this department.  I hope that some of you can learn from my mistakes. Let’s get right down to it.

I won’t be able to cover every issue and would be more than happy to answer any individual issues that you may have. Today, we are just going to start with five. There are many more that could be covered, but these are my biggest five that have hindered my personal growth in MTG finance. If there is something you would like covered you can always comment with it or tweet it to me @CalebGothberg

 

Overspending

It is very easy to buy too much, too fast. Starting out, I sold most of my collection and used that money to start buying. I bought every card that someone would sell me. The first time that someone tried to sell me a collection it almost ruined me. My friend, let’s call him Richard, messaged me to let me know that he was looking to liquidate everything that he owned except his decks. Richard had other priorities in his life that he felt (and justifiably so) were more important than having a Magic collection. I was in deep enough that I had to visit a local dealer to turn cardboard to cash. Most of the things that had to be sold were on the way up. Because I needed the money so fast I had absolutely zero walk-away power.  I made about $300 on the collection but probably lost that much in selling what I had. If I wasn’t buying every card someone would sell me, I wouldn’t have had a problem buying that collection.

 

Underspending

 

It is also very possible to underspend. The only way you can make money in Magic is by keeping everything on both ends moving. Finding buying opportunities can be hit and miss. I hit one of those patches very recently. I had a month where I only bought about $200 worth of cards. Guess how much profit I made in that month? Absolutely none. Finally, I had enough and started scouring Craigslist for collections being sold. Just about every single one of those collections were listed for way too much to make enough any profit. I finally found some old posts that hadn’t been removed yet. After meeting with a few of them and trying to make it fair for both sides, a good opportunity finally popped up. He had been trying to sell his collection for quite some time and understood that he wasn’t going to get full price on his cards. The negotiations didn’t go quite as well as I would normally like, but we came to a reasonable point where we could both get what we needed. I had to grind more than I usually like to with a collection, but turned a decent enough profit to justify buying. In the end it was better than not making anything for the month.

There are many ways to go about buying Magic cards. My personal favorite is just working with people I have met through personal networking. They know what I do and understand that we can find something that will accomplish what we are both looking for. When I am in a bind, I will look to places like Craigslist or local trade groups. eBay is another good option that some people use as their primary source of card flow.

Buying High

One of the worst things to a speculator can do is buy a card that has already spiked. Whether it is by misinformation or emotional attachment, it can happen to anyone. For me, this card was [card]Wolfir Silverheart[/card]. I went too far into this card too late. I started buying in at around five dollars. I was into the hype enough at the time that I didn’t realize that it was on a permanent downturn. I held onto all 55 of my copies until rotation hit. I was sure it would see more play despite what the community thought of it. I ended up buylisting them for around fifty eight cents a piece for a net loss of $243.10. Had I not gotten emotionally wrapped up with the card I could have saved myself a couple hundred dollars.

The easiest way to avoid this type of situation is to be involved in the MTG finance community and pay attention to the appropriate forums. Other people with lots of experience are online all the time and are happy to help you out. When doing this, you need to keep in mind who the information is coming from. If the advice is from someone unknown that replied to your Reddit post and it contradicts what @JasonEAlt is saying on his Twitter account, it’s best to side with Jason’s experience. Twitter is a huge resource that I believe is incredibly underutilized. I am not always as active on posting as I should be, but I look at #mtgfinance all the time, as well as Trusted tweets from experienced financiers. If nothing else, you can always just listen to a certain financial podcast that will help you out when it comes to speculating. No matter how you slice it, research is almost always the key.

Selling Low

Have you ever been sitting on a card so long that it almost demands selling? It hasn’t moved from where you bought it so you aren’t losing anything anyway and you would like to have the money for other things. I find myself in this boat way more often than I would like to. Part of this is due to the fact that I have more buying opportunities than I have cash. The other part is I have severe ADD and have a hard time sitting on cards for any period of time. Recently it was [card]Blood Baron of Vizkopa[/card]. I bought into this card in late July and decided to dump them in September. It didn’t appear to have much upward movement being generated and I was starting to get a little skittish about it. I got back what I put into them but then a month later, it finally spiked as I had anticipated. I needed something a little more exciting and lost the chance of doubling my money on this card. It was a solid bet that everyone in the community seemed to be behind. But how do you know when something like this is going to happen?

You can never have 100% certainty in life, but you can get close. Research is usually your key in these situations as well. There will be some cards that will always be a safe bet and all you need is to pay attention to what trusted people are saying. Usually the Brainstorm Brewery podcast provides some pretty sound knowledge on the subject. If you pay attention to the podcast you can already have a leg up on figuring out what’s low and what’s high. There are also sites out there, both free and subscription-based, that have a wealth of information to share with you. In the age of the internet, there are plenty of places to look for this information.

Mixing Personal and Magic Finances

One of the biggest struggles that I have is how much money to put into Magic and how much to take out. For myself, I feel like the less that these two mix, the better. My next article will be on this subject. For now, if you can keep your personal finances separate, you will find yourself  much happier. You never want to put yourself in a situation where your hobby starts to affect your day to day living. That is all that I will say on the subject for now.

Stay tuned to Brainstorm Brewery for other articles that can help you avoid pitfalls that I haven’t covered yet. As always, welcome to the grind.

How do you keep Magic and personal finances straight and what advice would you give to a novice brewist?

All Magic Has a Price – #3 – Accounting for MTG

True Cost:
The lowest amount of real cash needed to acquire a card.

All Magic Has a Price

 

J. Graves
Tampa, FL

faceLogo

Let me know your thoughts at [email protected]
Follow @jwgravesFL

 

About AMHaP

All Magic Has a Price focuses on Magic: The Gathering finance from the player’s point of view. AMHaP discusses the true cost of playing Magic: The Gathering by reviewing strategies to acquire a playable collection of cards for Standard as a returning player, a new player, or a continuing player, and by discussing potential investment opportunities in older formats. AMHaP targets those of us that play casually and competitively on a local level, and AMHaP is written for casually competitive players by a casually competitive player. If one would like further explanation of the viewpoint and scope, please read: All Magic Has a Price Issue #1.

If you would like more information on determining true-cost value, please read: this article.

 

Accounting for MTG

True-Cost Value

I had gone through a divorce, and all my cards were gone. The game I loved was gone.

A couple of years later in 1998, I was driving down the road in Burnsville, Minnesota when I noticed a familiar sign, Magic: The Gathering. My heart fluttered—could it be? Is she back in my life?
Logo
This was when I first found Limited. Oh, what a neat concept. There were new rules, and the stack was all screwy. What do you mean damage on the stack? Yay for [card]Snap[/card]. Packs of Urza’s were selling for $2.75 apiece, and card prices were rising. I am a struggling musician. How can I afford to play this game?
Logo
Playing on the internet, I stumbled upon eBay. eBay was a place to buy cards at a significantly cheaper price than the card shop. Cheaper cards made the game seem less expensive.

I began thinking to myself, Scrye was okay for trading, but if one really wanted to get the most value for the lowest cost, Scrye was not the source to determine value. eBay was. Why would I buy a card for $17.50 from the local shop or other internet retail site, when I could grab it from another MTG player for $9?

I fell in love with Draft the very first time I played in one. At prereleases, I would get the starter pack but  sometimes wouldn’t even play in the event. Instead, I would draft all day long. In those days, there were so many people at prereleases that they felt like Grands Prix. As I began to start winning in Limited, my collection grew.

I watched a couple Type 2 tournaments. Type 2 looked fun. I checked eBay for prices, and I found the prices to be extreme for the previous year’s block. Considering I would only get to play with the cards for another couple of months (except for in Extended), I couldn’t justify buying them.

I determined that I would wait, collect some cards, and play after rotation. I began bidding on eBay, and I bought cards that were low in price but were being played. My collection grew.

I noticed that by playing and winning at Limited, I could add additional value to my collection. In trades, I noticed that if I kept in mind the amount of real cash that it would take to acquire the card, I could add additional value to my collection.

I decided to stop thinking about cards at Scrye prices, and I focused on this new concept I had: true-cost value.

True Cost is the lowest amount of real cash needed to acquire a card.

True-Cost Value = the lowest amount of real cash needed to acquire a card, determined by an averaging the last 10 eBay sold auctions, including shipping, or the low on TCG Player, including shipping.

Whenever I traded, I stayed mindful of the TCV. I bought cards low in true cost and high in Scrye cost to trade. I studied Limited incessantly, because winning sometimes gave me 3-1 value in TCV. I continued buying low-cost, long-useful-life Type 2 cards. This became more fun than playing MTG. When rotation hit, I could play any deck I wanted. I loved it.

True-Cost Value is not going to help one win a PTQ, although it will help build a collection that allows one to attain a competitive deck. For the casual collector/player, which most of us are, TCV will help one to make better decisions as to how to spend a limited MTG budget.

I have never won a PTQ, but I have been a terror at a Friday Night Magic events. Magic: The Gathering can be an expensive game. Whenever possible, one should do his or her best to minimize the real cash needed to acquire cards by keeping in mind the true-cost value.

 

Selling

When one is looking to unload cards due to rotation, trading is superior to selling in retaining true-cost value. When trading, we will not have to worry about card-shop profits or eBay and PayPal fees.

If one cannot trade a card, other options exist. One can sell to the store, one can trade to the store for credit, one can sell on eBay, or one can attempt to sell on Craigslist or to friends.

Using SCG as a reference, selling to the store is an extremely low return. [card]Chandra, Pyromaster[/card] has a SCG buylist price of $8 and Channel Fireball has a buylist price of $10. Copies on eBay are selling for approximately $15.

Trading cards to the card shop, one can receive an additional 20% – 30%, approximately $10.40. The store credit is spent using the retail/SCG price. One is paying an additional 20% – 30% above TCV when using store credit. Store credit is a wash with real cash selling at buylist price, thus making this option almost identical to selling at buylist price.

In order to sell on eBay, one must pay eBay fees and Paypal fees. Paypal fees are, 2.9% + .30 cents. eBay fees include 10% of the total amount of the sale, and there are also fees for listings in excess of 50 per month.

Sunk Cost:
Money already spent and permanently lost.

Logo

Chandra, Pyromaster

Click Here!

For example, Chandra is going for approximately $15 on eBay at the time of this writing. Calculating this by: 15 * 2.9 = .435 cents plus .30 cents, giving us a total of .735 cents, PayPal’s cut. For eBay, 15 * 10% = 1.50 dollars. So the total for eBay and PayPal charges is 2.235. Taking $2.24 from $15 leaves us with $12.76. One would receive $12.76 in TCV. eBay’s and PayPal’s combined fees in this example are 14.9%. If one can not trade the card, Paypal and eBay fees can be considered a sunk cost. My preferred shipping method costs 66 cents for postage, and 4×7 bubble wrap cushioned mailers cost 25 cents a piece.

Craigslist and other classified sites are primarily used to sell collections. Selling individual cards is rarely done, if ever, and doing so would be tedious. If one were looking to sell his or her entire collection, this could be an opportunity to receive 5% to 15% additional real cash than would be offered by the shop selling in bulk.

Unloading cards is not easy, and it seldom feels good. Trading is the best way to retain TCV. If one cannot trade, several options are available. Selling to the card shop, trading to the card shop for store credit, or selling one’s collection on Craigslist are a few of those options. Clearly selling on eBay, even though fees will be incurred, is the best way to sell unwanted or unneeded cards.

For additional information on selling cards, please listen to Jason, Marcel, Corbin, and Ryan on Brainstorm Brewery every Friday.

Logo

Foil Yoked Ox

Click Here!

 

Mail bag #2

AMHaP issue # 2 had a huge response on Reditt this last week. Thanks, you guys, I appreciate the feedback—even if it was critical. For the success of AMHaP and for me, that type of honest direct feedback is a necessity.

I took a beating for suggesting foil [card]Yoked Ox[/card] was worth one dollar in True-Cost Value. I had decided that normally I would not include it in TCV. I looked at the eBay sold auctions. Several foil [card]Yoked Ox[/card]en had been sold recently, and that led to the question: if foil Yoked Ox was selling on eBay, does that explicitly imply that someone wants them? And, if someone wants them enough to buy them, then would not someone want it in trade?

After reconsidering my position and taking into consideration the view point of those on Reddit, I have decided to continue with my position that there is value in foil Yoked Ox.

I also took some guff for suggesting that the point of drafting was to gain value. Please do not “next level” yourself by passing money. Leave the “Pro Pick” to the pros. Why would a Friday Night Magic event player pass a shock land when the entire point of drafting is to win and open a shock land or get store credit to buy a shock land? Take the shock land, smile a little and pass the pack. Honestly at a Friday Night Magic event, if you are pro level player, you should be able to win with one less card, right?

Besides the amazing passion from Reddit, a good discussion on the actual mailbag question was had on BrainstromBrewery.com. Some very good suggestions on buy opportunities were made.

Mail Bag Question #2: What value-priced card available in Theros do you believe will see play over the next 18-20 months?

[card]Soldier of Pantheon[/card] appeared most often. I agree this is a fantastic buy opportunity. [card]Whip of Erobos[/card] was also mentioned. I personally am not sure about this card; however, the source that suggested Whip is a source I trust. I would not be surprised if Whip was in a deck after or before rotation other than mono black. Then there was [card]Fleecmane Lion[/card]. This is by far the most exciting pick up at the moment, in my opinion. A card that costs WG for a 3/3 that becomes hexproof and indestructible seems really good to me. I love aggro. Getting a 3/3 creature for two mana with an upside? That is a win.

Thank you for the feedback guys.

 

Mail bag #3

Selling cards is difficult. Few avenues exist to retain true-cost value.

What other options are there for unloading unwanted cards?

Also, in the Full-Cost Method, one must account for hidden costs. What hidden costs are there in Magic: the Gathering, and what are some ways to lessen those hidden costs?

Lastly, how useful is mtgprice.com in determining values?

Thanks to all the readers of AMHaP. Please leave comments or feed back below. All you need is a name and an email address. If you think I am right, tell me. If you think I am dead wrong, please let me know so you and I can discuss. Thaeyde and CorpT, thanks for the awesome discussion, and I look forward to our next round.

Follow me on the Twitter machine @jwgravesFL

Sander van der Zee – The Value of an Opened Box

Hello and welcome everyone! This is Sander and today we are going to take a look at the viability of turning a box of product into a profitable venture. Or rather, what you have to do to not make it a straight-up loss of value. The price of a sealed box is often more than what any person could hope to get from the singles by opening it. The intrinsic value lies in the wrapper around the box, so to speak. That wrapper represents unknown possibility and the legitimacy of a draft format and thus those will be the biggest selling points of any sealed product. But what happens if someone does open a box of sealed product for the singles?

Magic-The-Gathering-New-Phyrexia-960x600-wide-wallpapers.net

Setting Some Goals

If we want to find out what happens if we place a value on an opened box – and where it can go – we can just make an educated guess, but that’s not what I want to do today. Rather, I have decided to make this a challenge to myself and a learning experience to both me and you, the reader. I have been sitting on a few New Phyrexia booster boxes which I have been selling at a steady pace for 145 euro each ($199) over the past couple of weeks. I am left with five of them and can’t help but wonder how much I could get this box to work for me if I ripped it open, considering the latest speculation and hype price jumps from cards such as [card]Phyrexian Obliterator[/card] and [card]Spellskite[/card].

In order to make this work I need to set goals. I just wrote two entire articles on the topic, so why not put it to work? Let’s turn this into a S.M.A.R.T. goal.

I want to make 145 euro (the value of the box if sold sealed) from selling cards obtained from the cards opened in, or traded with the singles of, a single New Phyrexia booster box before June 21, 2014.

This seems specific, measurable (145 euro),  attainable (the value of a sealed box and the singles within shouldn’t be astronomically far apart), relevant, and time-related (due 6/21/2014).

Rules

Before we launch ourselves head-first into this experiment, let’s discuss rules. In order to measure our progress in a reliable and fair way, we need to know what I can and cannot do.  I’ll sum up the guidelines for you:

  • I can both trade the cards from the box or sell the singles from the box directly.
  • I am not allowed to purchase cards with the money gained from selling the singles.
  • I am allowed to trade at any rate as long as the other trading party considers the deal fair. This means that if the values which we trade by aren’t equal to the actual value but provided by a website that the other party prefers, it is still considered fair.
  • I am not allowed to accept gifts or free cards to help me reach this goal

Note that Magic Card Market works a little different than TCG Player. Whereas TCGPlayer always takes 50 cents plus a 5% commission fee and forces the seller to provide the shipping, Magic Card Market only takes a 5% commission fee and has the customer be responsible for the shipping fee 100% of the time. This means I can actually sell cards for 10 cents and not shoot myself in the foot with a gold bullet every time I sell a crap rare. Now, let’s get to that box!

Cards of Interest

An hour and six sealed pool registrations later…

Here we have it. Six mythics, 30 rares, six foils, and a bunch of commons and uncommons. I have an entire Excel spreadsheet containing each card and the number of copies I have opened, but here I would like to highlight some of the opened rares. The Excel spreadsheet has commentary on every rare as well as some of the commons and uncommons, and might be fun to read for those of you that enjoy bad puns.

Click here for the spreadsheet: NPH

Mythic  (6/6)

[card]Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite[/card]

Elesh Norn, Elesh Vee, [card]Gifts Ungiven[/card] target. This is our most expensive Mythic in the entire box at 13 euro. That doesn’t bode well for us. Luckily, this card is enough in demand for the price to have actually gone up steadily since rotation. It even took me by surprise that is was 13 euro, rather than the seven or eight I was expecting.

[card]Jin-Gitaxias, Core Augur[/card] (2)

The Lord ’o Probes himself, Jin-Gitaxias.  If you thought your opponent resolving an Eldrazi was bad enough for you, this card is an even greater beating on the EDH table than an indestructible, annihilating beast. At 3.50 euro, I consider him to be vastly underrated and underpriced. With a little haggling I could likely get 4.0 to 4.50 euro for him in a trade, so I do not expect to straight-up sell this one immediately. Plus, I have two of them.

[card]Urabrask the Hidden[/card]

Hidden from play, that’s what he was during his life in Standard. At 2.50 euro this is the least influential Praetor, but much akin to his blue brother, this Mythic can be traded away for more than the 2.50 I would get from Magic Card Market. It’s all about finding the right people.

[card]Vorinclex, Voice of Hunger[/card]

Speaking of season’s beatings, this green Grinch sure delivers it. No presents for you while I get double? Sign me up. And at 4.50 euro, this thing is very–no, criminally–undervalued. While I suspect this card to rise once people realize that the Praetors are the new Eldrazi, I will try to hold onto this one for as long as I can in the coming six months. Remember that the rise in value of the Rise of Eldrazi set was followed shortly by the jump in price of the colorless monsters themselves.

[card]Sword of War and Peace[/card]

Ah, the timing is impeccable. No wait, you’re too late. Discarded by the wayside, only to be used in cubes and EDH decks. That said I am absolutely fine either trading or selling this sword at 11 euro. However, the price memory on this card could serve me well if I try to trade it away.

Foils (1/6)

Yes! We got lucky. We really had to get lucky since we didn’t get a [card]Karn Liberated[/card] or [card]Phyrexian Obliterator[/card], but this card makes up for it quite well.

[card]Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite[/card] (FOIL)

A foil Elesh Norn sells for 27.50 euro on Magic Card Market and that bodes pretty well. It’s just under the value of a regular [card]Karn Liberated[/card]. I am certain I won’t be stuck with this one forever, but it may take a little effort to out this one, either by trade or sale.

Rare (8/30)

[card]Spellskite[/card]

Here is one of the big hitters. With [card]Spellskite[/card] at 9.50, this will contribute quite a bit towards my goal. Despite being “just” a sideboard card, the demand for this little two-drop is very much present. Luckily, my goal falls within the Modern PTQ season, meaning I should be able to trade or sell this one for probably more than the 9.50 it’s currently worth.

[card]Birthing Pod[/card]

At 5 euro, this is still a sleeper. This card is too cheap. I already have an entire fat pack box full of these and I am sad that this one won’t join it, but instead I will try to use its low price as leverage to get more out of it in a trade.

[card]Phyrexian Metamorph[/card]

EDH and cube all-star. I have never been dissatisfied with a Phyrexian Metamorph in my hand and it’s a shame that this card doesn’t see play in Modern . Perhaps that will change, but at 2.50, this is a cheap card that I should really try to trade away to the EDH crowd for a premium.

[card]Puresteel Paladin[/card] (2)

The enchantress of equipment. There was misplaced hype as far as its price point in Standard at the release of New Phyrexia, but it is loved by the 60-card casual crowd. This is a fine man at 1 euro.

[card]Melira, Sylvok Outcast[/card]

Much like [card]Birthing Pod[/card] and [card]Spellskite[/card], this is an important piece of a Modern deck. I am fine trading this one away at 1.50 euro.

[card]Caged Sun[/card] (2)

Surprisingly enough, this is not as popular as [card]Gauntlet of Power[/card], yet limiting the gain only to yourself should be a huge boost in EDH. I believe this card will rise at some point in the next five years. I advise you to pick them up. 1.25 euro each (Gauntlet is 4).

[card]Myr Superion[/card]

Ubermyr! Were this card German it would have quintupled in price. Now I just need to find a Myr lover who will take it at 0.75 euro.

[card]Unwinding Clock[/card]

One thing about this card you didn’t know: it’s $1.50 on TCG Player. Go check for yourself. On Magic Card Market this thing is only 0.35 euro, but I certainly searched for all my other copies in the crap rare box. If you have any idea why it is so expensive in the U.S., please inform me!

Commons and Uncommons (12 / a whole bunch)

[card]Dispatch[/card]

This thing is still 1 euro. A nice tradeout, but the eternal metagame has to make a real shift if it wants to go up, considering it sees practically no play. Will need to out this to the casual crowd.

[card]Deceiver Exarach[/card] (4)

A staple in the [card]Splinter Twin[/card] combo deck. It also sees play in the Pod and UWR versions as well. 0.35 euro a piece makes for a 1.40 playset.

[card]Mental Misstep[/card] (3)

From 5 euro down to 0.5 euro. I sincerely doubt I can trade or sell these with any ease, although Peasant is a real thing over here and this card is quite good in that format.

[card]Gut Shot[/card]

This is my personal bias but I believe this card is worth mentioning. Any free spell is. This card has already seen play in Legacy and there is little reason it isn’t seeing play in Modern either with the large amount of one toughness creatures reaching from one- to three-drops. Getting an average of two mana ahead in a trade is always satisfying. That said, this thing is currently only 0.20 euro.

[card]Whipflare[/card] (3)

Foils go for around 7, non-foils around 0.20. I suspect a price correction will come in time, at least up to 0.50. This won’t happen within the next six months I would assume, but you never know. I will try to use urgency as a leverage to charge more for these in a trade during Modern events when people are scraping to get their decks together.

[card]Beast Within[/card] (2)

A roleplayer in Modern [card]Living End[/card] and an effect green shouldn’t have according to some people, making it desirable for EDH because green needs more powerful spells. Easy trades for 1 euro.

[card]Noxious Revival[/card] (2)

This thing went up when miracles were released and hasn’t dropped down incredibly much since then. You can still get 0.50 for this free spell, although this is one of the less-powerful ones.

[card]Mindcrank[/card] (2)

This thing. It is more expensive than the price memory serves. At $1.50 on TCG Player and 0.50 euro over here, this thing is a special one.

[card]Gitaxian Probe[/card] (8)

Such a staple. Remember when I said that free spells were good? They are even better if they draw you cards and are blue. Gitaxian Probes go for 1 euro a piece and opening 8 surely helps greatly. One of the reasons to have New Phyrexia is the amount of pure gold you can find in the commons and [card]Gitaxian Probe[/card] is the best of them.

[card]Vapor Snag[/card] (6)

Dreaded in Standard and it still sees some play in Modern, especially now that Travis Woo has been brewing with his [card]Disrupting Shoal[/card] deck (without actual results). It still sees play in Modern Fish so there will be some demand for it at 0.50.

[card]Geth’s Verdict[/card] (7)

Casual all-star and I even run three in my Modern GBw sideboard. It’s good against hexproof and the one damage isn’t irrelevant. At 0.35 euro, this trades especially well with casual people.

[card]Vault Skirge[/card] (8)

Part of the Modern Affinity list and that’s why it is 0.20. The Gateway promo version has hurt the price a little because nearly everyone owns a silly foil copy now.

Total Value and Prospects

After looking up the value of the cards sans the two-cent cards (most commons), I calculated the total value and I was quite surprised. I surpassed the 90 euro I bought the box for!

 

Total value:

€ 120,82

5% commission fee

€ 6,04

Actual value

€ 114,78

Box value

€ 145,00

Profit

-€ 30,22

 

We’re not quite at the 145 yet, though. There is still a 30-euro gap between the current value and my goal. Now it is up to me to close that gap.

In order to get to trading, I need to get out. My local magic community is rather small, no bigger than twenty people. That is not a whole lot of trading opportunity. Going out to Grands Prix isn’t worth it unless they’re in the Netherlands themselves. There is one Grand Prix in Holland this year, however it is not within the timeframe of my goal (Grand Prix Utrecht, August 8 through 10). This means I will have to pursue several minor events around the country and try to trade there, as well as make use of a Dutch Magic trading and community site, Nedermagic.nl. Despite the complications, I am fairly confident I can reach my goal of 30 euro within six months. Maybe we can make even more..

Outro

Well I hope you will enjoy this little challenge! If you want to participate yourself, go ahead! Pick a sealed box, mark down the value of the contents, compare it to the cost of the box, and start trading! Just add your info to the comments below, on the Reddit topic, or email me, and I’ll try to keep everyone updated on each participant’s progress every time I update the article series. You can reach me at [email protected] or @TheMeddlingMage on Twitter.

MtG After Hours #7 – Jason’s a Dick!

This week’s episode goes all the way be to episode 48 of Brainstorm Brewery.  Jason is in an extra salty mood and is mad at everyone, even the people he likes.  Will Corbin figure out how to post the show notes or w the cast fail without any direction.  When does the After Hours stop and the actual podcast begins.  All this and more on this week’s MtG After Hours.

Links to the broken leg injury WARNING it’s nasty:

The WTF Pic
Bench GIF

Another GIF

YouTube Video

7170_10200860353291703_839689636_n

MtG After Hours is basically all the good shit that gets cut on the editing floor. Often while recording a podcast, the banter that’s not being recorded for the show can sometime be better than the actual episode. Get a rare behind the scenes in to the minds of your favorite podcasters, the featured podcast will rotate each week.

Contact Us

Brainstorm Brewerywebsiteemailtwitter

Ryan Bushardemailtwitterfacebookgatheringmagic.com

Corbin Hosleremailtwitterfacebook – quitespeculation.com

Jason E Altemailtwitterfacebookgatheringmagic.com – quitespeculation.com

Marcelemailtwitterfacebook

Andrew Colman- Serum Visions: Wassailing the Holiday Cube

Hello everyone and welcome back to Serum Visions!

 

It’s Christmas, it’s Christmas!

Well, actually, at the time of this writing it’s still Advent, but I went to the Royal Winnipeg ballet doing Tchaikovsky’s The Nutcracker last night and it sure is starting to feel like Christmas. And since I am writing for the future, Merry Christmas!!

Nothing says Christmas in the MTG community like the Holiday Cube. My goodness, I am so happy for twitch.tv. I have been watching so much cube streaming these last few days, it’s silly. I saw DZYL draft some absolute joke decks. There was the classic turn-one [card]Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre[/card] off of a [card]Black Lotus[/card] into [card]Channel[/card] opening hand. But what he didn’t do is play the [card]Karn Liberated[/card] that was also in his hand because it would have opened him up to losing to a turn one [card]Lightning Bolt[/card]. I’m not sure about you, but I would have gone for it! And the other deck that sent his sacred bell dinging (every time something goes his way he dings a bell) was his [card]Crucible of Worlds[/card]/[card]Strip Mine[/card]/[card]Wildfire[/card]/[card]Burning of Xinye[/card]/[card]Tanglewire[/card]/[card]Smokestack[/card]/[card]Rishadan Port[/card]/[card]Maze of Ith[/card] deck. It went 6-0, not even close, except for one close game where he beat a turn-three [card]Blightsteel Colossus[/card]. The deck was absolutely soul crushing. There was not a single bad draw during the whole six games. Merry Christmas.

Okay okay, I just needed to get some ridicupants cube stories out there to help bolster my other series. On to the beer.

This week’s topic is Christmas beer with a special focus on hot beer. Yes, hot beer. I am not talking about beers that have a really high alcohol percentage that have a really hot smell or nose, or even a beer that warms you on the way down. Nope, I am talking about a beer that you enjoy after you have heated it up on the stovetop and ladled into a mug or stein.

I’ll start with a little history, then discuss some of the style, and finish with a recipe, which will be our style of the week!

If I ask you to picture a beer in your mind’s eye, chances are good that you’ll see brown bottle or a can of lager with some condensation dripping down the side. Depending on how much football you watch, you might see some rather attractive females surrounding that beer, but that’s a whole other topic. If we were living a few hundred years ago, you would be instead be picturing a room temperature mug of ale being served to you by a bearded, jolly bartender in a tavern. The advent of lagers and artificial refrigeration contributed to the demise of the hot beer. Here’s how.

Before we had effective sanitation and refrigeration practices, there was a much higher chance of something undesirable getting into beer and giving it an infection, making it taste less than perfect. It’s important to note that infection is not necessarily a bad thing and is often sought for certain types of beers. We also need to know that not all infections are created equal. Some are described as smelling like rhino vomit that has sat in the sun a few hours, and others are not so bad, like lactic, which can give a very clean tart flavor to the beer. If a beer is not infected by the former it can still be very drinkable.

 

Wassailing

Traditional WassailingOne solution (often used in the 1600s) to masking the slightly undesirable flavor was heating and spicing the beer. This is very similar to mulling wine, except you’re using beer. The most popular version of a mulled beer is called Wassail. It’s named after a celebration for the health of the apple trees from Southern England. While doing research for this article, I found that the most popular version of Wassail seems to be Lambswool.  It blends the pulp of six apples into the spiced and heated beer and it creates a beautiful froth on the top of the cup that looks just like the wool of a lamb! However there are many versions of Wassail and it does not seem to have a definitive form. I’ll supply you with the two most popular preparations and you can decide for yourself which one you like best.

 

Recipes

Simple Mulled Beer

Recipes for this are greatly varied but there are some constants.

For the beer, use a brown or strong ale, and make sure it’s more malty than hoppy—this is not the time to embrace your inner hophead. A brown ale or a strong ale will work well. I haven’t seen any Belgian mulled beers so try and keep it American or British. I would look for a beer around 5-6% ABV (or more) with good malt character.

For the spices, use your favorite blend of Christmas spices: Cinnamon sticks for sure, nutmeg, clove, ginger, mace, allspice. The key here is to keep it light and make sure to start with a little and add extra if you’d like to taste them more. A good guide is to try and use around a teaspoon total per pint of whatever spices you decide to use .

Add some sugar—it seems like a tablespoon per pint is a good measure. You can use any type you like: honey, agave, brown sugar, whatever.

You may want some extra booze. Add half an ounce per pint (or more) of spiced rum, whiskey, Irish whiskey, or brandy. You could try gin, but leave vodka out of this one.

Finally, you’ll want s slice of citrus for garnish, either orange or lemon.

Mix everything but the citrus together in a pot. Bring to just below a simmer and take the pot off the heat and let it sit for five minutes. Ladle into a mug, add the slice of citrus, and enjoy!

 

And for the foodies in the crowd…

 

Lambswool Wassail DrinkLambswool

Recipe Ingredients:

1.5 liters (3 x 500ml bottles) of traditional real ale

6 small cooking apples, cored (Granny Smith)

1 nutmeg, freshly grated

1 tsp ground ginger

75g brown sugar

 

1. Roast the 6 apples for an hour at 250 degrees until soft and pulpy—the flesh should peel easily away from the skin.

2. Add the sugar to the bottom of a large pot. Add enough to beer to the bottom of the pan to dissolve the sugar. Try not to splash while stirring.

3. Add spices and the rest of the beer, keeping just below a simmer for a couple minutes.

4. Let rest off the fire for 10 minutes.

5. Separate the pulp from the skins of the apples and and blend the flesh smooth, you want no lumps in the final product.

6. Add the apple purée to the pot and let it steep for 30 minutes. Do not let the beer simmer on the fire at this point.

7. After 30 minutes, whisk vigorously or blend with a hand blender. If you mix long enough, the apple will froth up and look just like lamb’s wool.

8. Ladle it out into a tulip or stein and enjoy.

 

When you make one of these recipes this holiday season, shoot me a pic on Twitter @awcolman. You’re really going to love these drinks, and if you come up with or already have your own version, post it in the comment section because I would love to try some other recipes!

Please keep in mind that when alcohol is warmed it is absorbed into the body considerably faster than normal. Enjoy and drink responsibly. Please please don’t drink and drive this holiday season.

Merry Christmas and as always thanks for hangin’.

Andrew

Brainstorm Brewery #81 – Armchair Speculation

What do you do when a Travis Woo brew does the voodoo that a Woo brew do? That’s one of the questions on everyone’s minds this week as a card in Modern quintuples up overnight. Who’s buying these cards between $2 and $10? Is it a good buy at $10 anticipating $20? Should those of us with copies hold? This is becoming a regular occurrence lately and it’s hard to know what to do but the gang weighs in and substitutes a few better choices to make. Get ready to cringe as Corbin is grievously injured for your amusement and cringe harder when he regales you with how he spent his recovery period. Hear more conspiracy theories about the meaning behind “Born of the Gods” and how multicolored gods might be dealt with. Three quarters of the gang feels out of their depth discussing Magic Online prices, someone is still clicking cookies and it was apparently not certain the cast would even get recorded this time. Strap in for a bumpy ride on your favorite Magic podcast that will have you asking “How many weeks in a row are they going to mention Soldier of the Pantheon?”

  • The cast starts as all good casts do, with a discussion of something silly from Reddit that apparently isn’t as controversial as one of the hosts thought.
  • Pick of the Week is all solid info spanning multiple formats and platforms. It isn’t to be missed.
  • Marcel has a question about what to do about a card that has hit a record high on MTGO. The gang weighs in.
  • Is Disrupting Shoal a Splinter Twin or an Aluren?
  • What is the hashtag #OKinepts for?
  • Seriously, watch this again. You can actually hear a loud metal pinging sound.
  • If you are artistically inclined, the best photoshop or alteration of either the video of “Corbin Hits a Light Pole” or a still frame from it wins a prize. Send entries to [email protected]
  • Want to be part of the Brainstorm Brewery Team? If you can write, edit, photoshop or have a keen eye for design, contact [email protected] to find out how you can join the fastest-growing brand in Magic.

 

Cabe Riseau produced the intro and outro music for Brainstorm Brewery.

 

Contact Us

Brainstorm Brewerywebsiteemailtwitterfacebook

Ryan Bushardemailtwitterfacebookgatheringmagic.com

Corbin Hosleremailtwitterfacebook – quitespeculation.com

Jason E Altemailtwitterfacebookgatheringmagic.com – quitespeculation.com

Marcelemailtwitterfacebook

Kirsin Koch – When Nukes Hit the Commander Playgroup: The Standard Commander Challenge

It is entirely likely that many a Commander playgroup is approaching the final stretch of the arms race to build increasingly powerful decks full of format staples. And why not? Thanks to Eternal players and speculators seeking to offload extra pieces of the Mind Seize deck, there is a massive influx of Commander 2013 product. [card]Command Tower[/card] and [card]Sol Ring[/card] are currently affordable format staples for Commander players. However, as everyone knows, the glory of Magic is the flexibility of its deck building possibilities. As Mark Rosewater so often says, “Restriction breeds creativity.”

Earlier this year, Redditor 956Wulfe asked for deck-building advice regarding a local game store hosting a Standard Commander Challenge. The idea of a limited Commander card pool has been explored in the past. Cassidy Silver last dealt with this type of deck-building challenge when Scars of Mirrodin block was legal, building a Glissa the Traitor deck. Sheldon Menery completely dismissed the Standard Commander format as it lacks long-forgotten cards he likes to play and he feels it’s those cards that are the point of Commander. However, Sheldon’s conclusions arequite franklyvery wrong. A Standard Commander format is an interesting challenge to all player types and inspires worthy exploration and innovation.

A playgroup may wish to try Standard Commander format for any number of reasons. First, Cassidy Silver previously noted that Standard Commander decks are a good way to depower any gaming group that has “launched the nukes.” Second, the limited Standard card pool allows deeper exploration of lesser-played card interactions. Standard Commander decks may generate some of the same surprise factor that Limited players enjoy. Third is the financial factor. If a playgroup is trying to incorporate players who are newer, lack older cards, or scale down card purchasing, Standard Commander encourages a more level footing between the various players in the group. It’s very difficult to be priced out of a format when everyone only needs one of a card and is able to play the same set of cards. Finally, a Standard Commander format also has about the same power level as the Commander 2013 product, encouraging interaction between the two. It is very easy for a player to build a Standard Commander deck out of his draft winnings/table leftovers, a Return to Ravnica-block intro deck, and the local game store’s bulk rare box. A deck like this would be competitive with the decks of players opening brand new Commander 2013 decks.

This four-part series will first cover deck-building highlights such as key cards available for typical strategies. Subsequent articles will discuss sample mono-colored deck lists and highlights, Return to Ravnica guild-colored decklists and highlights, and finally the Gatecrash guilds will be given the same treatment. There will also be some financial suggestions for the Standard player as to cards they may come across while building these decks.

Deck Building Considerations

Tutors

There are a few notable observations to make regarding the current Standard card pool. First, the current Standard Commander format, like many New World Order-designed Standard environments, has a minimal number of tutors, reducing the consistency that Eternal Commander can engender. Of all the available tutors, only black’s [card]Diabolic Tutor[/card] is completely unconditional. If a combo deck actually existed in Standard, the lack of tutors in a singleton format like Commander would make combo decks even more unlikely and aggro, control, and midrange strategies the de facto archetypes. The available tutors currently in Standard are:

Black:
[card]Diabolic Tutor[/card]

The only unconditional tutor. Orzhov, Dimir, Rakdos, Golgari, and mono-black decks will all run this card.

Green:
[card]Gatecreeper Vine[/card]
[card]Lay of the Land[/card]
[card]Seek the Horizon[/card]

Each of green’s tutors are functionally counterable basic landcycling and fairly mediocre with the amount of color fixing and mana ramp available in the format.

Izzet:
[card]Firemind’s Foresight[/card]

[card]Firemind’s Foresight[/card] may cost 5UR, but it gets a combination of cards like [card]Dissolve[/card], [card]Cyclonic Rift[/card], and [card]Blustersquall[/card]. Thanks to the overload mechanic, this is an excellent card for Izzet decks.

Golgari:
[card]Jarad’s Orders[/card]

The ability to both [card]Entomb[/card] and [card]Eladamri’s Call[/card] at the same time will work very well for Golgari.

Artifact:
[card]Ring of Three Wishes[/card]
[card]Traveler’s Amulet[/card]

Any player building for a Standard Commander challenge in today’s Standard should presume that each opponent will be running [card]Ring of Three Wishes[/card]. It’s comparable to a slightly-more-expensive [card]Jayemdae Tome[/card] for decks lacking card draw and is an obvious, extremely-strong multiple-use tutor, especially for control and ramp decks. Lastly, [card]Traveler’s Amulet[/card] functions as a basic landcycling spell for all decks.

Mana Acceleration

Ramp decks must have a strong green component. Outside of [card]Chromatic Lantern[/card], [card]Darksteel Ingot[/card], guild Cluestones, guild Keyrunes, and [card]Opaline Unicorn[/card], non-green Standard Commander decks have few options. Green decks can utilize up to twelve additional mana accelerants and/or mana fixers which include:

[card]Axebane Guardian[/card]
[card]Elvish Mystic[/card]
[card]Gyre Sage[/card]
[card]Into the Wilds[/card]
[card]Karametra’s Acolyte[/card]
[card]Mana Bloom[/card]
[card]Manaweft Sliver[/card]
[card]Ordeal of Nylea[/card]
[card]Sylvan Caryatid[/card]
[card]Verdant Haven[/card]
[card]Voyaging Satyr[/card]
[card]Deathrite Shaman[/card]

Obviously Nylea, Selesnya, Simic, Golgari, and Gruul decks will have a very specific advantage over other Standard Commander decks. In addition to these available green cards, don’t be surprised if every deck runs a copy of [card]Burnished Hart[/card] as a colorless substitute for [card]Ranger’s Path[/card] to accelerate or fix mana. Most mono-colored decks will also try to squeeze in [card]Chromatic Lantern[/card] and [card]Darksteel Ingot[/card] for additional mana ramp. All the guild-colored decks will most likely run the appropriate guild Cluestone and Keyrune for additional card draw and battlefield body. Some players will happily note that [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] has some difficulty maintaining its normal mana ramp effectiveness in this format due to lack of fetchlands and mass land destruction.

Financially, [card]Chromatic Lantern[/card] is an excellent foil to pick up for Commander. The card’s relevance despite its comparison to [card]Coalition Relic[/card] is undisputed and will be a staple for years. [card]Burnished Hart[/card] in foil is another card to keep an eye on as a possible Commander staple. The ability to recur [card]Burnished Hart[/card] and immediately fetch out two more lands is very appealing to graveyard recursion decks such as [card]Karador, Ghost Chieftain[/card] or Golgari decks such as [card]Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord[/card].

Card Advantage

Most importantly, card draw is heavily concentrated in blue, black, and green, putting white, red, and Boros decks at quite a disadvantage. Izzet has a superior amount of card draw with [card]Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius[/card] as a Commander and [card]Mercurial Chemister[/card] in the deck. [card]Mercurial Chemister[/card] is a creature that has been showing up more often in Grixis Eternal Commander decks and has proven its worth to both repeatedly draw cards and remove creatures. Simic similarly has lots of options for card draw with [card]Prime Speaker Zegana[/card] being a Commander, but is less abusable than [card]Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius[/card]. (Red is not included on the below list because none of the cards offer consistently pure card advantage.)

Blue:
[card]Bident of Thassa[/card]
[card]Divination[/card]
[card]Inspiration[/card]
[card]Jace, Architect of Thought[/card]
[card]Jace, Memory Adept[/card]
[card]Opportunity[/card]
[card]Ordeal of Thassa[/card]
[card]Prescient Sphinx[/card]
[card]Prognostic Sphinx[/card]
[card]Scroll Thief[/card]
[card]Stealer of Secrets[/card]
[card]Thassa’s Emissary[/card]
[card]Thassa, God of the Sea[/card]
[card]Windreader Sphinx[/card]

As expected, blue will have vanilla draw spells, repeatable draw triggers, and repeatable scrying to find key cards and refill the hand.

Black:
[card]Liliana of the Dark Realms[/card]
[card]Altar’s Reap[/card]
[card]Blood Scrivener[/card]
[card]Dark Prophecy[/card]
[card]Erebos, God of the Dead[/card]
[card]Read the Bones[/card]
[card]Underworld Connections[/card]

Black will have to deal with sacrificing creatures or paying life to draw cards. The trade-off will be frequently worth it. Financially, it may be worth it to try and pick up foil [card]Read the Bones[/card] as a throw-in on trades. The card has been discussed by Vintage players as very playable and is an excellent utility staple for Eternal Commander players.

Green:
[card]Garruk’s Horde[/card]
[card]Garruk, Caller of Beasts[/card]
[card]Nylea’s Presence[/card]
[card]Seek the Horizon[/card]
[card]Warriors’ Lesson[/card]

If green needs to put creatures or lands into hand or is able to do damage with creatures, these are the cards to expect.

Azorious:
[card]Isperia, Supreme Judge[/card]
[card]Righteous Authority[/card]
[card]Sphinx’s Revelation[/card]

Orzhov:
[card]Triad of Fates[/card]

Conditional and slow, [card]Triad of Fates[/card] is a terrible draw engine that opponents can probably dismiss. It’s only included on this list for completeness.

Dimir:
[card]Bane Alley Broker[/card]
[card]Coerced Confession[/card]
[card]Notion Thief[/card]
[card]Pilfered Plans[/card]
[card]Soul Ransom[/card]
[card]Whispering Madness[/card]

For blue and black, most of the Dimir cards are less noteworthy than the straight mono-blue or mono-black cards available. [card]Notion Thief[/card], [card]Pilfered Plans[/card], and [card]Whispering Madness[/card] are the exceptions.

Izzet:
[card]Blast of Genius[/card]
[card]Mercurial Chemister[/card]
[card]Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius[/card]
[card]Steam Augury[/card]
[card]Thoughtflare[/card]

Simic:
[card]Bred for the Hunt[/card]
[card]Give // Take[/card]
[card]Prime Speaker Zegana[/card]
[card]Unexpected Results[/card]
[card]Urban Evolution[/card]
[card]Zameck Guildmage[/card]

Most of the Simic draw spells are conditional on +1/+1 counters or functionally work as cycling. [card]Prime Speaker Zegana[/card] and [card]Urban Evolution[/card] are the exceptions. Both of these cards are excellent pick-ups in foil.

Golgari (repeatable, conditional scrying):
[card]Reaper of the Wilds[/card]

This card’s effect is very unique in Magic, particularly for Golgari colors, and picking up some foil copies as trade throw-ins may be a good idea.

Artifact (repeatable scrying):
[card]Witches’ Eye[/card]

[card]Witches’ Eye[/card] is possibly one of the most interestingly innocuous cards available to a Standard Commander deck. For the sorcery speed cost of {2} and tapping a creature, any deck can scry repeatedly regardless of color. This is as close to [card]Crystal Ball[/card] as a deck builder will find in this environment outside of [card]Thassa, God of the Sea[/card]. Since [card]Crystal Ball[/card] is often called a “budget player’s [card]Sensei’s Divining Top[/card]” by Commander players, this card may have its place in the environment.

Creature Removal

Lastly, creature removal will most likely be one of the most difficult aspects of a Standard Commander challenge. This format is missing many of the more-efficient, non-conditional, flexible, and instant-speed staples and board wipes available in the Eternal card pool. Mass creature removal is mostly the domain of white and blue, making Azorious the most obvious creature and board control guild. Due to the power of the Theros gods, cards that can exile a creature should probably be given “staple” status. A list of possible removal and board wipes in Standard Commander looks like this, but is not a conclusive list:

White:
[card]Angelic Edict[/card]
[card]Angel of Serenity[/card]
[card]Banisher Priest[/card]
[card]Celestial Flare[/card]
[card]Elspeth, Sun’s Champion[/card]
[card]Luminate Primordial[/card]
[card]Spear of Heliod[/card]
[card]Planar Cleansing[/card]
[card]Trostani’s Judgment[/card]

Blue:
[card]Ætherize[/card]
[card]Colossal Whale[/card]
[card]Curse of Swine[/card]
[card]Cyclonic Rift[/card]
[card]Rapid Hybridization[/card]
[card]Sea God’s Revenge[/card]
[card]Voyage’s End[/card]

Black:
[card]Assassin’s Strike[/card]
[card]Doom Blade[/card]
[card]Grisly Spectacle[/card]
[card]Hero’s Downfall[/card]
[card]Keepsake Gorgon[/card]
[card]Launch Party[/card]
[card]Liturgy of Blood[/card]
[card]Shadowborn Demon[/card]
[card]Sip of Hemlock[/card]
[card]Ultimate Price[/card]

Red:
[card]Anger of the Gods[/card]

Azorious:
[card]Azorious Charm[/card]
[card]Detention Sphere[/card]
[card]Supreme Verdict[/card]

Orzhov:
[card]Ashen Rider[/card]
[card]High Priest of Penance[/card]
[card]Merciless Eviction[/card]
[card]Teysa, Envoy of Ghosts[/card]
[card]Triad of Fates[/card]

Boros:
[card]Chained to the Rocks[/card]

Selesnya:
[card]Selesnya Charm[/card]

Dimir:
[card]Far/Away[/card]

Simic:
[card]Simic Charm[/card]

Rakdos:
[card]Dreadbore[/card]

Golgari:
[card]Gaze of Granite[/card]
[card]Putrefy[/card]
[card]Vraska the Unseen[/card]

Colorless:
[card]Ratchet Bomb[/card]
[card]Volatile Rig[/card]

The Mana Base

Decks in a Standard Commander format are quite limited in the number of utility lands and dual lands available. Two of the three types of dual lands (the ten guild Gates and five scrying Temples) must enter the battlefield tapped, further reducing the speed of non-green decks. The third type, shocklands, allow the expected flexibility with loss of life, but have no stereotypical fetchlands to pair with them. The remaining utility lands that are applicable to the format are:

[card]Encroaching Wastes[/card]
[card]Grove of the Guardian[/card]
[card]Mutavault[/card]
[card]Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx[/card]
[card]Rogue’s Passage[/card]
[card]Shimmering Grotto[/card]
[card]Thespian’s Stage[/card]
[card]Transguild Promenade[/card]
[card]Unknown Shores[/card]

A player using [card]Encroaching Wastes[/card] has the possibility to knock an opponent out of a crucial color or utility land at the right time. It is reasonable to assume every deck will be running [card]Encroaching Wastes[/card]. Due to this safe presumption, Standard Commander brewers will probably want avoid running [card]Shimmering Grotto[/card], [card]Thespian’s Stage[/card], [card]Transguild Promenade[/card], and [card]Unknown Shores[/card]. Additionally, [card]Shimmering Grotto[/card] and [card]Unknown Shores[/card] are simply inefficient to use and are unfetchable with [card]Burnished Hart[/card], making them even less desirable. Basic lands are less flexible, but they’re much less complicated in this narrow card pool.

Summation

Notably, Standard Commander is currently missing many stereotypical “enters the battlefield” creatures, exceptionally strong Equipment, and graveyard value recursion. For instance, there is currently no cheap, targeted instant speed removal for white (e.g. [card]Swords to Plowshares[/card], [card]Path to Exile[/card]), blue hard counterspells that cost less than 3 or have “draw a card” text, and flexible noncreature removal (e.g. [card]Acidic Slime[/card]) for green. The Gatecrash Primordial cycle should also have an even larger impact on longer games than they already do in Eternal Commander due to slower game development and lack of efficient board control cards. Additionally, the mana base of each deck will be impacted with the limitation of dual lands and decks run an increased risk of mana issues.

One of the issues that Standard Commander playersparticularly players that power down from Eternal or Modern Standard to this formatwill notice is how noncreature cards are more problematic or impactful without the ability to answer those threats. The Theros indestructible gods will be glaring for players’ inability to react outside of [card]Angelic Edict[/card], [card]Trostani’s Judgment[/card], [card]Fade into Antiquity[/card], [card]Council of the Absolute[/card], [card]Merciless Eviction[/card], or counterspells. Once a Theros god enters the battlefield, the legendary permanent will continually impact the game until it is over.

Interestingly, this Standard Commander card pool has some startling synergies that will be quite entertaining for Johnny-type players and, as previously mentioned, hearken back to Limited drafting strategies and give them extended life. For instance, [card]Trading Post[/card] allows you to recycle [card]Vial of Poison[/card] and [card]Prophetic Prism[/card]. [card]Bubbling Cauldron[/card] turns your creatures into 4/4 Angels with [card]Angelic Accord[/card]. [card]Shadowborn Apostle[/card] tutors for demons. It’s this aspect that make for a very potentially interactive and refreshing format between players that should energize playgroups willing to sleeve up a Standard Commander deck.

Have comments? Please share below!

Anthony Capece – Rare is the New Uncommon

Editor’s note: We here at Brainstorm Brewery are taking the holiday off. Enjoy the below article from earlier this year and have a great holiday!

 

I’d like to discuss the rise in price of Modern staples over the past few years and why I believe that more recently printed Modern staples – [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] and [card]Thoughtseize[/card], for example – might actually be traps.

Let’s start here: “Past performance does not indicate future results.”

It’s one of those nuggets of investing wisdom that you’ve heard a thousand times, but how does it apply to Modern cards? What we’re saying here is that the factors that caused an investment to be good or bad in the past (in this case referring to the huge spike in Modern prices) may or may not remain in place going forward. If they do, we can expect similar results. If they don’t, we can’t. So let’s talk about the factors that contributed $130 [card]Tarmogoyf[/card]s and the like.

First, take a look at what has happened to the Magic: The Gathering player base over the past several years. Hasbro said in their 2012 annual report that the player base stood at 3.3 million, and that Magic had seen 25%+ annual growth in revenues for four years in a row. We can make a few assumptions here, understanding that these numbers are inexact and only intended to put us in the ballpark. If you run 25% growth backward, here is what the player base would have looked like each year (in millions):

 

Players (mil)

2008

Shards of Alara

1.35

2009

Zendikar

1.69

2010

Scars of Mirrodin

2.11

2011

Innistrad

2.64

2012

Return to Ravnica

3.30

Hasbro has already said that 2013 continued on this trajectory, so today we might be looking at something like 4.1 million Magic players. Think about these numbers for a minute. There are 1.5 million players who have picked up the game since Innistrad, which just left Standard. That was almost the entire player base during Zendikar block! If 2014 continues on this pace, we’ll add a million more – staggering.

The next assumption I’m going to make is that Wizards is scaling their print runs according to these increases. Again, it may not be perfect, but I think it’s reasonable to assume that they are printing at least 25%-30% more cards each year to meet the demand from new players. I certainly haven’t heard about a shortage in booster packs.

The supply implications are that there could be three copies of [card]Snapcaster Mage[/card] out there for every two copies of [card]Arid Mesa[/card]. There are two [card]Deathrite Shamans[/card] for every [card]Marsh Flats[/card]. It’s reasonable to think that there will be four copies of Theros [card]Thoughtseize[/card] for every one Lorwyn copy! It’s time to rethink rarity.

As for the spike in Modern cards over the last few years – the demand for Modern right now is based on a player base of four million and the supply of fetchlands is based on a printing for 1.69 million players. So, they are expensive. Simple enough. But the supply of [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card]s is based on a printing for 3.3 million players. Not nearly as expensive. Demand for Magic cards has increased dramatically over the past few years, but so has the supply of new cards. You can’t overlook this if you want to be a successful Magic financier.

Check out this chart to illustrate. Warning – we’re switching to MTGO. I understand that paper is different, but I’m using MTGO to make a point about supply. Looking at mtggoldfish.com, I chose a series of Modern staples – one rare from each block – that all see a similar level of play (dominance ratings of 16-22%) and plotted their prices. These are some of the most played cards in Modern, and the goal here is to fix demand so we can see how supply, on its own, affects price. There is a hole where the Shards staple should be because it doesn’t exist.

chart1

Looks a little bit like the inverse of this graph of the player base, doesn’t it?

chart2

I know some of these cards see play in Legacy and that clouds the picture somewhat, but Legacy has a small effect on MTGO ([card]Stoneforge Mystic[/card] is 1.3 tix and [card]Jace, the Mind Sculptor[/card] is 25% of his paper price). I used the price of [card]Thoughtseize[/card] from just before it was announced in Theros, but all other prices are current. I think the chart illustrates the point very well: Modern staples show a clear downward trend in price online as you move forward in time.

If demand for each of these cards is about the same on MTGO, the differences in price are necessarily caused by supply. There are just way, way more Snapcasters and Deathrites out there than there are [card]Tarmogoyf[/card]s (obviously the Modern Masters reprint added very little supply). I think everyone knows that but I don’t think everyone understands the magnitude and what it means going forward.

Modern staples like [card]Tarmogoyf[/card] and Modern staples like [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] are just not comparable financially. If you are looking at Deathrite and thinking that it will follow [card]Tarmogoyf[/card]’s trajectory because they see similar levels of play in Modern (and Legacy), think again. There could be as many as three Deathrites for each ‘Goyf in existence. We should be comparing [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] to [card]Kitchen Finks[/card] instead.

The Modern player base has quickly outgrown the print runs of Zendikar and sets older. It hasn’t outgrown the print runs of newer sets like Innistrad and Return to Ravnica. But will it?

Let’s go back to what I said at the beginning of this article – past performance does not indicate future results. If you think that Snapcaster and Deathrite are going to follow the same trajectory as [card]Tarmogoyf[/card] and (pre-reprint) [card]Thoughtseize[/card], that means you think that the player base will keep increasing at 25% per year for several more years. That is what caused the initial climb, and that is what will have to happen again for new cards to climb in the same way.

The bad news is that the growth of the player base is going to level off. It’s not a matter of “if” but “when.” No business can grow at 25% annually forever, and Magic is no exception. I don’t know when it will happen, but stringing together four years of 25% growth is already a great feat. I will not be surprised if it continues for another couple of years. I will not be surprised if it cools off next year. I will be surprised if it continues for many more years. That would bring us to ten million players in four years. It would mean adding 2+ million players between years three and four of that run (2017), which was almost the entire player base during Scars of Mirrodin. That is a lot of Magic players.

When (not if) we enter this cooling-off period, the most recent blocks are going to be in massive supply compared to past sets. The player base will not grow fast enough to make them scarce the way Zendikar fetchlands or Future Sight [card]Tarmogoyf[/card]s are scarce today. If you are holding a box of $15 Theros [card]Thoughtseize[/card]s that you are holding for when they go back up to $50, just understand that we need to double the number of Magic players on Earth first. Go ask Jason Alt about bagholders – and try to recruit some new players on the way, because we need them.

Magic financiers spend a lot of time trying to understand demand. We research formats, evaluate cards, and on and on. But that’s only half the equation. If you put the same focus on supply, you realize that we are going to be drowning in Theros cards by the end of the block. It’s going to take years of strong growth for demand to get to the point where [card]Thoughtseize[/card] can recover. After all, it’s probably about as rare as [card]Inquisition of Kozilek[/card] at this point.

There are already hints of the oversupply of more recent sets if you look. Scars of Mirrodin block was printed right in the middle of the player-base explosion. People keep wondering why the Scars fastlands aren’t jumping, even though they see play in Modern. [card]Birthing Pod[/card] is one of the most dominant decks in Modern but you can still buy them for $4 on TCG Player. We keep waiting for the spike, but I no longer look at that as a sure thing. Maybe there are enough [card]Birthing Pod[/card]s to go around. I’ll be watching these cards closely, along with [card]Snapcaster Mage[/card] and [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card], when Modern season hits.

To be clear, I’m not saying that growth is slowing. I’m saying that when it does, whatever the recent sets are at the time will be in huge supply. No matter how much those cards are played in Modern, they will never reach the heights that we have seen in the past.

Now, don’t fret. It doesn’t mean there isn’t money to be made. You may have noticed that I’ve mentioned large-set rares almost exclusively. The mythic rarity certainly changes things, as do small sets and core sets, and of course we can always spec on older cards. I’ll go into more detail on this topic in my next article.

Thanks for reading.

Corbin Hosler – Building a Brand

Editor’s note: We here at Brainstorm Brewery are taking the holiday off. Enjoy the below article from earlier this year and have a great holiday!

 

Today I want to do something a little different. With a Standard metagame that’s offering fewer and fewer opportunities for the next month or two and Modern still a long way off, I’d rather not look at the minutia of Magic finance at the moment.

 

My Story

I know we have a lot of people new to the Magic finance reading this right now, and I know that the whole “Magic finance” thing can be a little intimidating at first. A few days ago I was battling against somebody with my (nearly) foiled out Modern merfolk deck, when he started to ask me the prices of several of the cards. Understandably, he was a little taken aback by some of the answers, like [card]Cursecatcher[/card] at $15 (and sold out at $6 regular on SCG, by the way. Thanks True-Name Nemesis!) or [card]Aether Vial[/card] at $25.

While talking about the deck, his friend asked him if he had any plans to foil out his Goblin deck. His response?

“Maybe if I was born into money.”

I let the comment slide, but the first thought that went through my head was that it doesn’t take money, it just takes time and hard work.

I’ve written about it before in several places, but the fact is that I was in his position just a few years ago – a broke college student losing to [card]Baneslayer Angel[/card]s because he couldn’t afford $50 mythics. Playing Magic was hard and keeping up with Magic was even harder.

Fast forward a few years. Today I write Magic finance articles, I co-host a popular podcast that is sponsored, I run a Magic singles store out of my LGS, and I’m able to foil out my merfolk deck without breaking the bank.

 

You Get What You Put In

You cannot have a defeatist attitude about this stuff. Rather than look at my merfolk and lament that you won’t ever get there because you didn’t have the same opportunities I did, make those opportunities yourself. I didn’t sit around being upset that I didn’t play when Power 9 was readily available. Instead, I worked hard and took advantage of good opportunities, to the point where I’ve used money from Magic to buy a fancy fridge as a housewarming gift for my wife as well as her engagement ring.

I know you can’t have a defeatist attitude because I went through that same process. I started just before Shards of Alara and was disappointed that I couldn’t have all those fancy, expensive Lorwyn cards like everyone else. Seeing prices on dual lands made me cry. But like I always advocate, where others see risk, find the opportunity.

I found my opportunity. The first big one was Zendikar fetchlands, and I accumulated more than 100 through trade when they began to bottom out in price.

The saying is opportunity looks a lot like hard work, and it’s absolutely true. I’m in a pretty good place in terms of Magic finance right now, both in terms of the passive income I make from it and the fortunate position I’m in being given a place to write, but it’s taken thousands of hours of work to get here. I think that’s the most important lesson for anyone looking to get into Magic finance, or really whatever else it is that interests you. There is no “easy flip.” No “I have $100, tell me where to put it right now so I have $500 a month from now.” Things aren’t that simple. They take time. They take research and dedication. They take work.

 

Building Your Brand

Most of you already know of this though, right? If you’ve been around the MTG finance game for a while, you certainly do. You know that scouring collections for those 50-cent cards is just as important as predicting the next [card]Nightveil Specter[/card] like we did in this column a few months back. The difference between success and failure in MTG finance and life is made in the margins. If not for those small victories like grinding collections that are more hard work than any particular brilliance, it would be much more difficult to get through the missed calls like [card]Splinterfright[/card] or [card]Master of the Pearl Trident[/card].

But there’s more to it than that, if you want there to be. If you are content just making your money and moving on, that’s fine. But I know that many of us want more than that, and I have something to share on the subject: no one is more important in making that happen than you are.

Let me explain: yes, I’m very lucky that someone I know bought one of the local Magic stores here and yet didn’t want to run a singles business so he hired me to do so. But that’s just the end result, the opportunity, the product of the hard work that went into it.

So what was that work? For me, it was about building a brand: myself. A fair number of local players and dealers in the region know who I am or recognize my name. But everyone recognizes Bernie Madoff’s name too. The important thing is that they recognize what I represent – a small-time dealer who is easy to work with and above all trustworthy.

Someone walked into my shop a few days ago hoping to buy a playset of [card]Green Sun’s Zenith[/card] from me. I had several that are in the mail but hadn’t arrived yet. I started to tell the guy that I didn’t have any for him right then, but then someone from a table next to me handed me his playset to sell. I told him I’d be happy to trade for them or buy them from him, but he just told me to not worry about it and I could replace them when mine came in.

I’ve told stories like this in the past and gotten the typical “must be nice, people are dumb, etc…” responses. Some value traders or grinders just can’t comprehend someone passing up an opportunity to “make value” at any cost. But the fact is we’re all surrounded by generous people like this, you just have to earn that respect.

I can’t offer you a step-by-step roadmap of how to get there, I just know that it’s something I’ve seen far too many people bypass in order to extract maximum value from a situation, whether that’s a trade or a friendly storeowner or whatever.

For me, I try to keep it simple. When I trade I don’t scumbag the other person or lie to them, and I’m as friendly as possible. I’ve met some great friends this way. Likewise, I go out of my way to help other players whenever possible. I freely loan away my cards and I’ll sometimes tell people just to keep stuff later on. I was lucky enough to meet several people who did the same for me when I started, and I want to pass that on.

“Being a good guy” is a great start, but it goes further than that. Here are a few things I consider instrumental to my journey to where I’m at today.

 

  • Creating a Twitter account. Why? Because it gives you access to a bunch of people you wouldn’t have otherwise. One of the best early things that happened to me when I was new to Magic finance and Twitter was getting into a public disagreement with Jonathan Medina over Venser, the Sojourner. He was convinced it was going to be a $40 card a few months out, and I thought it would be below $15. Interacting with a known commodity in the MTG Finance community (and beating him on that bet) was a great start.
  • Asking for a shot. This is absolutely the most important thing. How did I get my start writing Magic finance (for DoublingSeason.com, a short-lived website that was the precursor to any Magic finance site on the internet)? I asked. Then I wrote an article. Then I wrote another. Before too long, I got the hang of it and people kept coming back.
  • Conducting myself professionally. This is something that people overlook simply because they don’t realize how far it extends. I don’t curse on social media and very rarely on the podcast, I don’t speak in slang, I approach every email professionally. Basically, you have to be on your guard to put your best foot forward at all times, because you never know who is reading. And they are reading.
  • Be consistent. Nothing is more important to building a brand than consistency. Good-but-not-great content produced consistently is statistically more important to building a readership than producing something great every two months. You have to be there, week after week, if you want your readers to come back.
  • Staying up-to-date and accessible. I may not love all of Reddit, but I have an account and I try to be active on the forums I enjoy, like the MTGFinance subreddit. I stay active in the Quiet Speculation forums. I go out of my way to give every person I meet or trade with my full attention, and if they ask me for advice I try to give detailed answers instead of blowing people off with a quick response. After all, the very first thing I ever wrote about Magic finance was “It’s about making friendships, not matching dollar signs,” and I firmly believe that to be true.
  • As you’re building your brand, don’t forget where you came from. Think about it in comparison to competitive Magic players. Many people don’t want to go to PTQs because of all the “jerks and rules-lawyers there.” You don’t hear these stories about the pros like Brian Kibler or LSV, you hear them about the mid-level player who’s had a taste of success and is so desperate for more he’s willing to compromise his own ideals to get there. Don’t ever begin to think you’re entitled to something because you wrote an article for a website or because you’re a well-respected player or trader in your area.
  • You’re only as good as your next piece. I’ve made some nice calls in the past and hopefully written some good articles, but remember that there is always someone to whom you have no history at all. They don’t care that you called Stoneforge Mystic two years ago, and they don’t care that you played on the Pro Tour that one time. Don’t forget that.

 

So that’s my spiel. I’m incredibly lucky to be writing to you from a website titled after my own podcast, but there’s been a lot of work that’s gone into it. None of us got here through purely through luck, though there was certainly some of that involved. Jason will try to tell you he hit the lottery by becoming a podcast regular after coming in 10 or so episodes in, but it’s not true. He worked hard to get there and is responsible for many of the steps forward we’ve taken since then. That’s not luck, it’s hard work.

So I’ll leave you with this. What’s your goal in Magic? If you don’t have one, get one. Write it down, write the steps you need to get there, and make it happen. It’s not going to be easy, but it’s worth it. And figure out why you want to reach that goal. Is it to play whatever you want without budget concerns? Is it to make a name for yourself in the Magic community? Everything you want to do is possible, but it’s up to you to get there. Maybe then, when someone comes up to you and looks over your expensive Legacy deck and makes a comment about how they wish they could have the same opportunity, you’ll smile a little because you know just how wrong they are.

A wise man once said that people insist on calling it luck. I still have big goals for my career in Magic. Do they have my name on them? I don’t know. But I’m going to find out.

 

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Jazon – PucaPrelude

Here is the introduction about me. And there it goes!

If you’re reading this, you’re reading to learn more about PucaTrade. During my time as a silent observer of the MTG finance community, I’ve noticed that the site seems either misunderstood or has been wholly misrepresented as a trading tool. Hopefully I’m able to finish this article before the #2 value trader surpasses me (holding steady at #1); I give it a week, maybe less. He moves quickly, and I’d like to have at least SOME credentials when talking about this service. Sadly, I wasn’t able to both write and publish this article before I was surpassed. He is now #1. I guess you should take everything I say with a grain of salt.

Damn you, Newman.

What PucaTrade Is

On the surface, PucaTrade just seems to be a more automated, streamlined means of online trading. And that’s really all it is. What a reveal! PucaTrade is a platform with which you essentially convert your cards into currency (PucaPoints), which you can then offer to other users who have cards you want. It is a mechanism for trading without haggling. It’s very streamlined and automated, and the staff is very good at resolving problems in a timely manner, but I’ll get to the pros and cons later.

PucaTrade has been around since May or June of last year, and started to pick up a little more steam when Chas Andres mentioned it offhand in an article about online trading resources like Trader League and Deckbox and all that. (Incidentally, I was just getting back into the game at this time and this is what got me into Puca.) Membership swelled after Eric and the team garnered a ton of publicity with the Kickstarter, and now that the new website is operational, making want lists completely visible to the trading public, I anticipate membership continuing to climb.

PucaTrade is, for all intents and purposes, a completely free service—sign up, list those cards, send ‘em out, and put 1000 Zendikar full-art lands onto your want list. The team is still smoothing out the different tiers of paid membership, though; as an early PucaPro subscriber, I have been grandfathered in at the old rate, but yearly membership is now either $3.75 or $7.50 a month, depending on how much extra stuff you want to be able to do on the site. Receiving foils is a popular one, for sure, and I’ve taken considerable advantage of being able to receive those. But if you don’t feel like convenience is worth your money, then you can just easily make an old-school have/want list in the PucaTrade forums and work out a deal with someone there for the foils you’re after. (Which, of course, is how “we” did it back in the “old days.”)

Eric Freytag (the man in charge) and his team are, of course, hard at work developing new and interesting reasons to throw money at the site, and I’ll be excited to see what they roll out, but PucaTrade Silver or Uncommon or whatever the heck we’re calling that tier meets my needs perfectly well for the time being. It’s all about evaluating what exactly you want to get out of the site—free is perfectly reasonable for a lot of folks!

What People Seem To Worry About

As an advocate for the site, I try to read every article and discussion on PucaTrade that I come across (though I only occasionally take part in the conversation), and the two major concerns that a lot of people have raised are essentially variations on one question: can I trust this site?

The first common concern is in regards to the site’s stability or longevity: “If I invest my cards, money, and time into PucaTrade, how can I be sure that my investment will be secure or stable?”

There’s a fatalistic short answer to this: as with all investments, you really can’t “be sure.” The development and administration teams could all have a simultaneous heart attack. Some unscrupulous hacker/Magic financier could figure out how to supply himself with all the points he could ever want (though I’m pretty sure that this kind of thing only happens in the movies). PucaTrade is not legally binding the way eBay or TCGPlayer are, and until it reaches a certain size I expect that it will remain nonprofit instead of becoming an actual business.

But faith in an investment plays a significant role in that investment’s stability, and there are an awful lot of people who have placed their faith in this system. Eric puts a great deal of time and effort into maintaining this juggernaut he’s created, and I don’t even think it’d be possible for him to “cut and run” or whatever the conspiracists of the online Magic community worry about. I’m fairly certain that he’s not profiting any more off of PucaTrade than any of its other subscribers, and while I am always going to be a fan of greater transparency on the site’s part, I am willing to trust that Eric and PucaTrade.com aren’t just going to disappear overnight. There are going to be cards to send and people to send you cards on the site for a long while, barring some unprecedented Magic market crash.

The second concern I’ll address has been previously raised in hilarious, inflammatory fashion by certain groups on Twitter. “What if I send a card and it mysteriously disappears in the mail?”

This is frankly always a danger when sending cards to anyone through the mail—and, unlike other trading sites with which I am passively familiar, PucaTrade has not yet implemented a “feedback” system (I’ll probably expand on how one could be implemented and why at a later time). Fortunately, what PucaTrade does have is a dedicated team of administrators who actively engage with users whose cards haven’t been received or who have yet to receive their cards. The team moderates communication between the two traders and sees to it that cases are resolved. Ultimately, the only negative that I’ve experienced with the case resolution system is that sometimes it can tie up your points—which is only really a negative when a card is about to spike or when you really need a card for an upcoming tournament. (Again, there will be stories later.)

As one of the higher-volume traders on PucaTrade, why haven’t people tried to rip me off more? I’ve sent three [card]Jace, the Mind Sculptor[/card]s on PucaTrade successfully, and when I attempted to sell the fourth and final JTMS on eBay, the buyer insisted that I’d sent him a fake. Why can I send high-value items on PucaTrade without worrying that I’m going to get scummed?

My wishy-washy hypothesis is this: PucaTrade is a small and relatively familiar community. I’ve sent cards to the same people and received cards from the same people time and time again—I recognized their names even before Puca Revised started showing names on trades (an important feature that, as ever, I will discuss in detail *later*). We follow each other on Twitter. PucaTrade provides an open environment for healthy communication between users and I anticipate that this helps foster a strange sense of community that, yes, might contribute to the relative lack of scumbaggery on the site. (The small-community nature of Puca also serves an advantage because, though we presently lack a feedback system, someone trying to game the system would become very obvious very quickly to the administrators.)

What PucaTrade Is For

PucaTrade, despite what I see some folks attempting, isn’t really optimized for obtaining piles of cards that have just recently spiked, or for dumping those cards at the peak of their hype. It is not an emergency solution when you need a surprise bit of tech for the PTQ in three days. PucaTrade is a sizable trading community for people who don’t have sizable trading communities available to them.

When I joined PucaTrade last year, I was living in a town of about 1000 with maybe ten to fifteen other Magic players. Our trading group had become fairly incestuous; we had all the cards we wanted from each other and there wasn’t really a lot of back and forth unless someone pulled something crazy—we had to drive to Buffalo or Rochester if we wanted to acquire something new for our Standard decks without spending a lot of money (which, it turns out, was not in abundance for a bunch of undergrads or recent grads living in a farming community).

PucaTrade singlehandedly emptied my binder of (from our perspective) useless EDH staples and turned them into Modern cards—[card]Celestial Colonnade[/card]s, [card]Remand[/card]s, Lorwyn [card]Thoughtseize[/card]s before that horrifying spike. Local trades became much simpler, as well; if I didn’t have the card that they really needed before they’d trade away their [card]Vendilion Clique[/card], I soon would. PucaTrade simultaneously plunged me into the world of Magic finance and my playgroup into the world of Modern.

Admittedly, Puca can be used to grind out some significant value, especially now that the PucaPoint value index has been changed from the ever-popular TCG mid price to an aggregate of price information taken from sources across the internet. Some cards (especially foils) are worth significantly more than they would have been under the old pricing metric; others, such as cards that have recently spiked, older cards, or foil Zendikar full-art lands, are somehow underpriced. Keeping an active knowledge base of what’s over- and under-valued on Puca can let you maximize how much you’re able to get out of the service. That is, if you’re exclusively shooting for monetary value.

A rather amusing trend that’s been cropping up with the advent of value traders subscribing to Puca is this: four or five people will put one or two playsets of a card that has recently spiked on TCG but hasn’t been subsequently updated in the PucaTrade Price Index. Of course, people holding these cards tend to be a bit suspicious, because obviously something is going on if a card that no one really wanted until recently suddenly has 18+ wants on your “Send A Card” page. The person holding the [card]Splinter Twin[/card]s/[card]Griselbrand[/card]s/[card]Spellskite[/card]s pops over to magiccards.info and shazam! Information. The trend is interesting, and I’d be curious to know more about the actual success rate versus how many people are realizing that their cards shot up thanks to five or six people suddenly wanting a bunch of copies.

Regardless of my feelings in regard to the Price Index being somewhat slow to update (and that tiny, vindictive part of me that hopes it suddenly adjusts to the actual market value and catches folks with their pants down), I would ultimately appreciate more transparency regarding the Index. While the TCG mid price can be altered and affected by outside sources, it really is a consistent representation of a card’s going market value. The current PucaTrade price index allowed me to turn six [card]Restoration Angel[/card]s (TCG mid 499 points, PucaPoint value 692 points) into three [card]Griselbrand[/card]s (TCGMid 1499 points, PucaPoint value 1392 points). For those of you who don’t care to do the math, even without [card]Griselbrand[/card]’s recent spike to $18 on TCG, I came away with what was essentially a free [card]Griselbrand[/card]. While I understand that transparency with regards to the index could allow some people to get an edge by making it easier to predict when to send and acquire certain cards, I think that discrepancies highlighted by this trade and others show the need to at least understand from where these point-value assignments are coming.

The long and short of it is: you can grind PucaTrade for value. You can also use it for what (I suspect) was Eric Freytag’s intended purpose in creating the site: to have access to binders that you’d never have otherwise, and to avoid the sharking that unfortunately is a reality in many Magic trading communities. I think what Eric and PucaTrade have done and continue to do is a wonderful service to both the finance community and to the Magic-playing community at large, and I only hope that Puca continues to expand and improve as more and more people sign up and start sending cards.

You can look forward to a primer explaining the very basics of using PucaTrade soon. The primer will be filled with useful information, but also I’ll try to share some of my interesting stories involving PucaTrade along the way. Thanks for reading!

In the meantime, Give and Let Give.

MtG After Hours #6 – Twitter Pissing Contest

This week’s episode is from episode 82 of Brainstorm Brewery.  The Brew Crew discusses the merits of Twitter and dive into the nitty gritty like how much is a fake Russian follower worth?  Jason name-drops Jeff Hoogland again in hopes to ride his coattails.  Ryan comes up with a new hashtag destined to go viral; #OKinepts.  Yes, it’s pure debauchery!

MtG After Hours is basically all the good shit that gets cut on the editing floor. Often while recording a podcast, the banter that’s not being recorded for the show can sometime be better than the actual episode. Get a rare behind the scenes in to the minds of your favorite podcasters, the featured podcast will rotate each week.

Andrew Colman – The Puzzle Box: The Elegance of Gruul

Welcome back to The Puzzle Box!

This week we’re going to be digging into the red and green sections of our cube. Referring to the Gruul clan as elegant is certainly counter-intuitive, if not counter-cultural. But when you break it apart into red and green, and then break those two colors down into what they do at their core, we see they are both elegant. Red takes the shortest path to victory20-0 ASAP, and all the cards serve a similar purpose. The main one is to attack: the red deck want to deal 20 as fast as possible, not play a defensive game. Simple and elegant. Green is not known for its cleverly elegant cards like blue’s [card]Vendilion Clique[/card], but collectively, green comes together. Green’s main focus is to get mana resources out faster and play bigger guysthat’s it: simple and elegant. When you put red and green together, that is when they get confused: one wants [card]Goblin Guide[/card]s, the other wants [card]Terastadon[/card], and apparently only they know how to fight it out. Silly Gruul.

 

There are, however, two cards in this list that do not do that which I stated red’s mission to be, and I think one of them deserves some attention: [card]Wildfire[/card]. It is the lone card in this section that does not go along with the plan of 20-0 ASAP. However, it’s worth its lonely existence because it is a deck in itself. Basically how it goes is, first you pick a [card]Wildfire[/card] and then take green ramp cards, mana rocks, and land destruction spells. When you are able to add in its P3K version, [card]Burning of Xyne[/card], it greatly increases the consistency of the deckit just gets out of hand.  Being able to destroy a board full of creatures and eight lands is just incredible value for six mana.  You’ll also want to keep an eye out for [card]Armageddon[/card] if you end up finding enough mana rocks. The creatures you are looking for in this deck are mana makers and any castable creatures with toughness five or morethis way they don’t get burned up in the fire. The game plan goes as follows: get up to six mana, play your titan or whatever you have that survives the [card]Wildfire[/card], then cast it, hopefully when your opponent has only four lands out. You should ideally be casting [card]Wildfire[/card] on turn four. Then proceed to apply the beats with your [card]Wildfire[/card]-proof creature.

 

Red is one of the best colors to splash because its removal is so cheap and efficient. This is one of the biggest reasons the mono-red deck does not come together for someone who is trying to draft it. I think it’s worth mentioning that this section only cost $15, because many of the best mono-red cards are common and therefore not expensive. This is very good news for the rest of the cube because we’ll have a little wiggle room in the colorless section. Not only does the colorless section have more cards than the WUBRG section, but its cards are on average more expensive because they can go in every deck.

 

[deck title= The List According to Type]
[1CC Creatures]
Firedrinker Satyr
Grim Lavamancer
Jackal Pup
Mogg Fanatic
Reckless Waif
Stromkirk Noble
[/1CC Creatures]
[2CC Creatures]
Gore-House Chainwalker
Keldon Marauders
Lightning Mauler
Stormblood Berserker
Torch Fiend
[/2CC Creatures]
[3CC Creatures]
Blistering Firecat
Fire Imp
Keldon Vandals
Manic Vandal
[/3CC Creatures]
[4CC Creatures]
Avalanche Riders
Flametongue Kavu
Hellrider
[/4CC Creatures]
[5CC Creatures]
Siege-Gang Commander
[/5CC Creatures]
[6+CC Creatures]
Inferno Titan
[/6+CC Creatures]
[Planeswalker]
Koth of the Hammer
[/Planeswalker]
[Instant]
Fireblast
Burst Lightning
Lightning Bolt
Incinerate
Magma Jet
Searing Spear
Char
Staggershock
[/Instant]
[Sorcery]
Firebolt
Pyroclasm
Arc Lightning
Pillage
Earthquake
Wildfire
[/Sorcery]
[Enchantment]
Sulfuric Vortex
[/Enchantment]
[/deck]

 

[deck title= List According to Cost]
[$2-$2.99]
Koth of the Hammer
[/$2-$2.99]
[$1-$1.99]
Blistering Firecat
Grim Lavamancer
[/$1-$1.99]
[$.50-$.99]
Inferno Titan
Siege-Gang Commander
Firedrinker Satyr
Lightning Bolt
Magma Jet
Hellrider
Stromkirk Noble
[/.50-$.99]
[$.25-$.49]
Fireblast
Earthquake
Sulfuric Vortex
Avalanche Riders
[/.25-$.49]
[$.01-$.24]
Incinerate
Jackal Pup
Keldon Vandals
Manic Vandals
Torch Fiend
Char
Reckless Waif
Fire Imp
Firebolt
Stormblood Berserker
Pillage
Lightning Mauler
Mogg Fanatic
Gore-House Chainwaker
Flametounge Kavu
Searing Spear
Burst Lightning
Pyroclasm
Wildfire
Keldon Marauders
Staggershock
Arc Lightning
[/.01-$.24]
[/deck]

 

Green has a few more options than red, but what it really wants to do is to play [card]Pelakka Wurm[/card] or [card]Terastadon[/card] on turn four or five. Cards like [card]River Boa[/card] are cards that don’t particularly fit inside the core of what this color does, but have a high enough power level on their own to warrant inclusion in smaller lists. Also, finding affordable/powerful green two drops can be a bit difficult. [card]River Boa[/card] ends up being a free win against black decks and provides infinite blockers for when you are setting up the turn when you play your big fatty.

 

Green is also probably the best midrange color in the cube. It has the beefy cards at three mana which you can normally play on turn two with the help of an elf on turn one. Landing a [card]Troll Ascetic[/card]  and being able to untap with it is one of red’s worst nightmares, because if you just keep your regeneration mana up, the red player is going to have a hard time coming up with profitable attacks for the rest of the game. A green midrange deck will almost always be paired with white, red, and/or black to make up for its lack of removal.

 

Again, one of the cards to which I would like to bring attention is a new one from the Commander 2013 set: [card]Curse of Predation[/card]. In the late game, one of the best things to do with your irrelevant or top-decked mana elves is to feed them to a [card]Skullclamp[/card] and rip through your deck finding exactly what you need. I cannot tell you how many times I have top-decked an elf with the clamp on the table and proceeded to draw six cards because I just kept pulling all of my elves and clamping them away. The look you get from your opponent across the table is one of pure disgust! If you aren’t so lucky to pick up the clamp, [card]Curse of Predation[/card] does a great job of getting those mana elves back in business. If I have CoP in my deck I am more than happy to play four elves, because I know I’ll usually have one on turn one, and they wont be the worst top-decks later in the game.

 

Another pet card that I think does not get nearly enough attention in cubes is [card]Kessig Cage Breakers[/card]. When you have this card in your deck, especially if you have a way to go dig it out,  it really changes the way you interact with combat and the game in general. You become more than happy to recklessly push your guys into the combat when it seems like trading is in you opponent’s favor. Or you can feel better about chump blocking with your mana guys because they will create serious value for you later. Combining [card]Skullclamp[/card] with [card]Kessig Cage Breakers[/card] can be absolutely game breaking. I have found that this card is actually better at digging you out of a tough spot than many of the other five-drops we find in the green section.

 

[deck title= The List According to Type]
[1CC Creatures]
Arbor Elf
Fyndhorn Elves
Joraga Treespeaker
Llanowar Elves
[/1CC Creatures]
[2CC Creatures]
Fauna Shaman
River Boa
Sakura-Tribe Elder
Strangleroot Geist
Wall of Blossoms
Wall of Roots
Wild Mongrel
[/2CC Creatures]
[3CC Creatures]
Eternal Witness
Troll Ascetic
Viridian Shaman
Yavimaya Elder
[/3CC Creatures]
[4CC Creatures]
Blastoderm
Phantom Centaur
Wickerbough Elder
[/4CC Creatures]
[5CC Creatures]
Acidic Slime
Kessig Cagebreakers
Thragtusk
Wolfir Silverheart
[/5CC Creatures]
[6+CC Creatures]
Pelakka Wurm
Terastodon
[/6+CC Creatures]
[Instant]
Worldly Tutor
Naturalize
Beast Within
[/Instant]
[Sorcery]
Firebolt
Farseek
Regrowth
Cultivate
*Kodama’s Reach
*Plow Under
*Green Sun’s Zenith
[/Sorcery]
[Enchantment]
Rancor
Awakening Zone
Curse of Predation
[/Enchantment]
[/deck]

[deck title= List According to Cost]
[$3+]
Green Sun’s Zenith
Fauna Shaman
Worldly Tutor
[/$3+]
[$1-$1.99]
Beast Within
Awakening Zone
Thragtusk
Plow Under
[/$1-$1.99]
[$.50-$.99]
Regrowth
Wall of Blossoms
Joraga Treespeaker
Terastadon
Wolfir Silverheart
Rancor
[/.50-$.99]
[$.25-$.49]
Kodama’s Reach
Troll Ascetic
Cultivate
Yavimaya Elder
[/.25-$.49]
[$.01-$.24]
Strangleroot Geist
Llanowar Elves
Phantom Centaur
Blastoderm
Wild Mongrel
Kessig Cage Breakers
Acidic Slime
Farseek
Viridian Shaman
Arbor Elf
River Boa
Naturalize
Pelakka Wurm
Fyndhorn Elves
Wickerbough Elder
Walls of Roots
[/.01-$.24]
[/deck]

 

I have had a request for the spreadsheet that I showed in the article on the white section.  Don’t worry, I will get it all together as a string of images in one of my future installments. What I plan to do is make a Google doc in which you can enter the size of the cube you’d like which will scale all of the numbers to that size. It is worth noting that this is not the formula on how to build a cube, it is just a very solid starting point. With this document you’ll be better able to tweak  you archetypes and make your cube just how you and your playgroup likes it. After all, that’s what this is really all about. So look for that spreadsheet soon.

 

As always, thanks for hangin’.

Andrew

Holiday Cube Original Art Swap

[download id="66"]

Change the art for MODO Holiday Cube back to the original artwork, see the Power 9 in their true glory. This file reverts all “modernized” artwork back to it’s first printing. Truly a beautiful thing. Included as well is a skin to convert modern card frame into older border.

[download id="66"]

Read More

Brainstorm Brewery #80 – Sticking Your Neck Out

The cast turns eighty, which is old enough to drive a car into a farmer’s market and blame it on the floor mat. This episode starts with a bang—do financiers tend to hedge their bets because they’re afraid to be wrong? It doesn’t let up, as the gang goes down a laundry list of finance trends and happenings as well as some discussion of the evolving Standard format. Which price spike this week was a classic Aluren scenario? Who’s going the broadest with his Pick of the Week? What should you do when an old block becomes available for Magic Online Draft? Find out the answer to all these questions and more, including a listener-submitted trade proposal that the gang seems genuinely split on. Join us for another hour of your favorite Magic podcast that will have you asking, “Promo Priest of Titania is worth how much!?” This is Brainstorm Brewery.

 

  • An old sore subject is a good jumping-off point for a discussion about hedging from the finance community. What responsibility does the finance-writing community owe its readership, and what should the readers demand? Are writers too afraid to be wrong? Is it impossible to cover every contingency?
  • A Modern card went up and is already back down again following a brief frenzy seemingly backed by no demand. How do we know if a price spike is the genuine article? What are some quick ways to mentally check yourself at checkout?
  • All roads lead to and from Pick of the Week, as selling tips for TCGplayer, old cards whose prices we thought were set in stone, and the future openness of the Standard format are all discussed. You won’t want to miss a second.
  • A listener sends in a letter proposing a trade. Which side do you want to be on? The gang weighs the pros and cons.
  • Magic Online is seeing Modern Masters Drafts for a limited time. The gang dispenses valuable advice.
  • Is the podcast not enough of a finance fix? Check out the articles at the cast’s own website or spend some time on Reddit so you don’t miss a thing.

 

Cabe Riseau produced the intro and outro music for Brainstorm Brewery.

 

Contact Us

Brainstorm Brewerywebsiteemailtwitterfacebook

Ryan Bushardemailtwitterfacebookgatheringmagic.com

Corbin Hosleremailtwitterfacebook – quitespeculation.com

Jason E Altemailtwitterfacebookgatheringmagic.com – quitespeculation.com

Marcelemailtwitterfacebook

Josh Milliken – Jund: The Villain is Now the Hero

I knew my fascination with Jund was more than just my unwillingness to move on from Innistrad Standard, but over the course of a month I couldn’t even get a winning record at an FNM with it. And then I realized that I was playing terribly because I was simply burned out on Magic and needed a break. No matter how much I wanted to play, I forced myself to not play Magic. Now I’m back, and with Matt Costa’s recent victory with Jund at SCG Providence, I’m in a good position to discuss where Jund should go from here.

This is where I started for with Jund for this Standard season.

[deck title= Jund Midrange by Josh Milliken]

[Creatures]
*4 Sylvan Caryatid
*3 Scavenging Ooze
*4 Reaper of the Wilds
*4 Stormbreath Dragon
[/Creatures]

[Spells]
*1 Abrupt Decay
*2 Magma Jet
*4 Mizzium Mortars
*3 Hero’s Downfall
*3 Read the Bones
*1 Rakdos Keyrune
*1 Whip of Erebos
*2 Chandra Pyromaster
*1 Vraska the Unseen
*2 Rakdos’s Return
[/Spells]

[Land]
*4 Temple of Abandon
*4 Overgrown Tomb
*4 Blood Crypt
*4 Stomping Ground
*3 Rakdos Guildgate
*2 Golgari Guildgate
*1 Gruul Guildgate
*3 Swamp
[/Land]

[Sideboard]
*4 Thoughtseize
*2 Pharika’s Cure
*1 Dreadbore
*2 Golgari Charm
*2 Anger of the Gods
*1 Whip of Erebos
*1 Vraska the Unseen
*2 Sire of Insanity
[/Sideboard]
[/Deck]

As you can see, I was very prepared for aggressive decks, but also kept the flexibility to really go after control decks post sideboard. The biggest issues the deck had included a horrible matchup against WBR midrange and matches that took forever against Esper decks.

Fast forward a month and I hear that someone is tearing it up with Jund at SCG Providence. This didn’t surprise me, given how good the deck should be against the Mono-Blue Devotion and Mono-Black Devotion decks that have been dominating the format. I found myself rooting for Matt to take down the tournament, and was not surprised when he swept through a sea of Mono-Blue decks to win.

[deck title= Jund Midrange by Matt Costa]

[Creatures]
*3 Reaper of the Wilds
*3 Scavenging Ooze
*4 Stormbreath Dragon
*4 Sylvan Caryatid
*2 Polukranos, World Eater
[/Creatures]

[Spells]
*4 Abrupt Decay
*4 Hero’s Downfall
*2 Anger of the Gods
*1 Mizzium Mortars
*2 Rakdos’s Return
*3 Read the Bones
*3 Thoughtseize
[/Spells]

[Land]
*3 Forest
*1 Mountain
*5 Swamp
*4 Blood Crypt
*4 Overgrown Tomb
*4 Stomping Ground
*4 Temple of Abandon
[/Land]

[Sideboard]
*2 Mistcutter Hydra
*1 Sire of Insanity
*2 Underworld Connections
*2 Doom Blade
*2 Golgari Charm
*2 Anger of the Gods
*2 Duress
*1 Rakdos’s Return
*1 Thoughtseize
[/Sideboard]
[/Deck]

The biggest issue I see with Matt’s list is that he’s not running enough sweepers in the main – this is a format dominated by decks that are forced to overextend to win. The other problem is [CARD]Thoughtseize[/CARD] in the main deck with so many decks that push through super quick damage.

With the metagame pushing more and more towards Mono-Blue Devotion, Mono-Black Devotion, and a hint of Esper, this is where I ended up:

[deck title= Jund Midrange by Josh Milliken]

[Creatures]
*3 Scavenging Ooze
*4 Sylvan Caryatid
*2 Polukranos, World Eater
*3 Reaper of the Wilds
*4 Stormbreath Dragon
[/Creatures]

[Spells]
*2 Abrupt Decay
*2 Dreadbore
*3 Mizzium Mortars
*3 Read the Bones
*2 Anger of the Gods
*4 Hero’s Downfall
*1 Whip of Erebos
*2 Rakdos’s Return
[/Spells]

[Land]
*4 Blood Crypt
*4 Overgrown Tomb
*4 Stomping Ground
*4 Temple of Abandon
*3 Rakdos Guildgate
*3 Swamp
*2 Forest
*1 Mountain
[/Land]

[Sideboard]
*4 Thoughtseize
*2 Pharika’s Cure
*1 Mizzium Mortars
*2 Golgari Charm
*2 Underworld Connections
*1 Anger of the Gods
*1 Whip of Erebos
*2 Sire of Insanity
[/Sideboard]
[/DECK]

With [CARD]Pack Rat[/CARD] being a very prevalent threat, my primary sweeper of choice is [CARD]Mizzium Mortars[/CARD], which gives me a turn-two answer but also provides a sweeper that kills [CARD]Gray Merchant of Asphodel[/CARD] and [CARD]Frostburn Weird[/CARD]. Also, with instant speed mattering much less on [CARD]Abrupt Decay[/CARD], I moved toward [CARD]Dreadbore[/CARD] to be able to deal with planeswalkers and [CARD]Desecration Demon[/CARD] more easily. Bringing in [CARD]Whip of Erebos[/CARD] allows me to occasionally race aggro decks while also providing additional threats against Esper.

Sideboarding

Here’s how I would sideboard against the top three decks in the format:

Mono-Blue Devotion

In
2 [Card]Golgari Charm[/Card]
1 [Card]Mizzium Mortars[/Card]
1 [Card]Anger of the Gods[/Card]

Out
1 [Card]Abrupt Decay[/Card]
1 [Card]Whip of Erebos[/Card]
2 [Card]Rakdos’s Return[/Card]

Mono-Black Devotion

In
1 [Card]Mizzium Mortars[/Card]
2 [Card]Underworld Connections[/Card]
1 [Card]Whip of Erebos[/Card]
4 [Card]Thoughtseize[/Card]

Out
2 [Card]Anger of the Gods[/Card]
2 [Card]Polukranos, World Eater[/Card]
3 [Card]Read the Bones[/Card]
1 [Card]Rakdos’s Return[/Card]

Esper Control

In
4 [Card]Thoughtseize[/Card]
2 [Card]Golgari Charm[/Card]
2 [Card]Underworld Connections[/Card]
1 [Card]Whip of Erebos[/Card]
2 [Card]Sire of Insanity[/Card]

Out
2 [Card]Abrupt Decay[/Card]
3 [Card]Scavenging Ooze[/Card]
3 [Card]Mizzium Mortars[/Card]
2 [Card]Anger of the Gods[/Card]
1 [Card]Read the Bones[/Card]

It’s great to be back after what feels like an eternity away from Magic, and I hope to see you all out there in the trenches slinging the cards we all love. If you have any questions or comments please feel free to leave them below and I will try to reply.

Thanks for reading,

Josh Milliken

@joshuamilliken on Twitter

Marc DeArmond – Casually Infinite: 10 Rules for Profit, Part Two

Today, we’re picking up where we left off last time, with rules six through ten of my 10 rules for profit. Check out last week’s post for rules one through five.

Rule #6 – Understand Estimated Value (Don’t Play 4-3-2-2)

When it comes to prizes, the 4-3-2-2 format has the very worst payout for the cost. While it feels like it is a small step up from Swiss, it is actually a step down. In Swiss, three of the four players that lose the first round will get prizes. If you are confident that this won’t be you, then you should be playing 8-4s. In an 8-4, if you get to the finals, you’ll pull down a significant number of packs. If you can’t make it to the finals on a regular basis, you’ll do better in Swiss. There are only 11 prize packs in a 4-3-2-2 as opposed to 12 in both Swiss and 8-4. If you’re good enough to get into the top 50%, you’re better off competing over 12 packs than 11.

It is the Limited community’s hope that someday 4-3-2-2s will become 5-3-2-2s (we now see this in Constructed queues), which would be awesome. But until this happens, friends don’t let friends play 4-3-2-2s. Each time you do, you are giving up about .37 tix. This means that instead of paying 11 tix to play you’re paying 11.37 tix. It adds up the more you play, but the most important reason not to play 4-3-2-2s is that if people stop playing, WOTC will have to make the prize structure worth it – some day.

Rule #7 – Selling Cards in Multiples is Easier

With the exception of really expensive cards, playsets of cards worth .25 to four tix are far easier to sell than single cards. A player looking for an [card]Imposing Sovereign[/card] is more likely to need four. Many would rather pay six tix for the playset than try to work out deals with multiple dealers to end up paying 1.25 tix each. After all, if you pay 1.25 from four different bots, it will end up costing you eight tix and you’ll be stuck with .75 credit at four different stores. Better to buy and sell in multiples. It tends to take less time and draw more interest from buyers. Plus, if someone needs one of a card you’re selling as a playset, they are still likely to contact you.

Selling multiples also gives you more control over the price of your cards. If I’m trying to sell off my playset of [card]Heliod, God of the Sun[/card], I can price the cards at 2.5 each by selling the set for 10 tix, or I can set the price at 2.75 and sell the set for 11 tix. If I’m trying to sell cards individually, my only real options are two or three tix, because trying to work out trades for .25 tix can be a real pain.

Rule #8 – Understand How Bots Work

The MTGO classfied ads are filled with a large number of automated stores called bots. Most bots offer buying, selling, and trading functions. If you purchase a card worth .5 tix, a bot will save your leftover credit for a later purchase or to pay you back on a future sale. I’ve learned the hard way that .25 tix in credit stored on four different bots is not the same thing as having a ticket in your hand.

It is important to pay attention to how much you’re paying a bot for a card. Bots will sometimes price cards at odd numbers like 1.002, .667, or .502 tix. This means if you want to purchase cards, even multiples from them, you’ll end up having to pay an additional ticket and get something like .992 credit. Sometimes this isn’t a big deal, as you can spin off a handful of commons to make up the difference. But sometimes the “great deal” you just found ends up costing you more than you intended to pay. If you’re purchasing at prices like this, you’re better off doing so at more established stores such as MTGO Traders or Supernova Bots, because you’re likely to find a good use for the credit.

Don’t forget to add any bot that owes you credit as a buddy. I don’t know how many times I’ve traded with a random bot and found credit I’d forgotten about. It is also probably worth keeping a log of how much credit bots owe you. Once you start trading with bots, it’s almost impossible to get your credit down to zero. If I find myself close to a full ticket in value on a bot I’ll generally open up my entire collection as tradeable and see if there’s anything I can let go for a couple cents to bring the balance up and get a ticket.

If you ever have a full ticket in credit, take a ticket instead of leaving the credit. Also, be weary of bots with good prices and no tickets available to trade. It doesn’t matter if you get 25 credits for a 10-ticket card if the bot charges one credit for commons.

Rule #9 – Learn What Bulk Means

Bulk rares on MTGO generally cost around .05 tix, but can only be sold for around .01. Sometimes bulk rares will take off and gain some value, but these are the exceptions. This means that you can put together a very playable non-net deck for just a couple of tix. But those values won’t go anywhere – most of the time. When they do, you’ll see massive profits, but this can be very difficult to predict. I suggest listening to Marcel and the other guys on the Brainstorm Brewery Podcast for ideas about what bulk rares have the potential to go off. But otherwise, be very careful about dropping money into bulk rares.

Rule #10 – Set a Goal

Having a goal really helps you reach for something. As a school teacher, I’ve noted that nothing drives a student to success as much as when he sets his own goals and then strives to reach them. My first goal on MTGO was to get enough money to play in a Draft. I started with an initial two tix, two packs, and a handful of mostly-worthless cards. To make a Draft happen, I needed to turn my starting set into another pack. With only two tickets this was a significant challenge. Some of the first trades I made included buying copies of Magic 2011 [card]Time Spiral[/card] for .9 tix from one bot and selling them for one ticket to another bot. The first bot had enough available that I was able to gain a ticket through buying and selling 10 copies of [card]Time Spiral[/card].

After I played in a few Drafts, I decided to set a new goal. I wanted a full set of Magic 2012. The idea of paying $5 for a full set of cards sounded great to me. So I began to work toward this goal. It took me over a year to complete, but without spending any additional cash, I was able to put together an entire set of Magic 2012 for redemption. After completing this set, I took a break.

My next goal was formed when I saw a Facebook post that my best friend and first Magic opponent from middle school, David Guskin, was the lead developer for Magic 2014. Given our history, I felt like I owed it to him to play the set that he could call his. I could see a number of elements included in the set that reminded me of how we used to play back in the day, so I decided I wanted to build a complete set. This was just before the prerelease and I had a glorious two tix in my account. I set the goal of playing a release sealed queue at a 26-ticket entry fee. It took me a couple weeks, but by selling off uncommons and commons, as well as buying and selling rare lands, I was able to get the tickets together. I managed to place second in the one I played. All in all, 26 tickets bought me a [card]Liliana of the Dark Realms[/card], an [card]Imposing Sovereign[/card], and a [card]Witchstalker[/card], as well as eight packs of M14. I was on my way to my goal.

When you have a goal, you have a reason to come back. By having something left incomplete, you will be drawn to return. If you don’t have a goal, you won’t have anything to do at a given time. Maybe you want to create a cool EDH deck or make your current one all foil. Maybe you want a playset of a 30-ticket card or you want to move in on that new Standard deck. Setting goals is what drives us to better ourselves. I can’t tell you what a good goal for you will be, but I know that without one you are much more likely to quit.

Conclusion

Many of these rules will surely end up with their own post at some future point, going into further detail of why and how they are best observed. However, rule #1 (pennies matter, don’t give them up) is the most important and will be a running theme in all my articles. In order to play infinitely, you can’t look at .5 tix and consider it nothing. It is half a ticket, 1/7th of a pack, 1/25th of a draft. If you can squeeze .33 tix out of a trade three times, it is money in the bank. Use these rules to help you play smarter and eek out an edge. Playing infinitely is all about not giving up free money and taking every advantage you can get.

Have comments? Please post below!

DJ Johnson – Trading to Your Outs

Hello again! For those of you who took the time to read my last article and still bothered to click on the link to my second piece, I thank you. I hope I was able to share enough information to make it worth your while. If you’re just jumping on this article series (if you can call it a “series”…I don’t even have a cool name for it), you can read my last piece here.

Last time, I mentioned that I would be discussing your “outs” to make the most out of every card you own. To some of us MTG financiers (someone really needs to come up with a better name for those of us who dabble in the MTG finance market), the things I’m about to list are common knowledge, but I hope that everyone reading this learns something. Either way, I’d greatly appreciate any constructive criticism or feedback on my writing to help me improve the reading experience for you.

Somewhere in your Magic lifetime, a friend may have walked up to you after you scooped up your cards in the face of overwhelming odds and told you that you still had “outs.” This means that, no matter how small a chance, there was a sequence of events that could have followed that ended with you pulling an amazing comeback and taking the game for yourself. Barring situations where you concede to save time on the round clock, it’s generally correct to play the game until your possible outs approach as close to zero as possible.

This philosophy of playing to your “outs” applies to the financial world of Magic as well. If you picked up [card]Master of Waves[/card] at $12 in the middle of its massive spike before the Pro Tour, then you were probably happy when it proceeded to climb as high as $25. However, if you didn’t get rid of them immediately, then you were gradually less happy as it progressively dropped back down to $12 where it is now. If you have all of the knowledge in the world of when a card will spike in price, that doesn’t help you at all unless you can actively get rid of it (unless your goal is to just get cards cheaply for decks, making Magic less expensive to play competitively). Let’s discuss a few “outs” you can use to get value out of your cards when they hit that sweet spot on the top of the price graph.

1. Trading:

This is the most obvious method. Trading off cards that have spiked (i.e. [card]Hero’s Downfall[/card]) to Standard FNM players for sleepers looking to spike soon (i.e.[card]Inkmoth Nexus[/card] and [card]Birthing Pod[/card]. How are these not $10 yet?) is a good way to continuously increase the invisible value of your binder and make connections with your local community. The downside is that you don’t see any actual cash return by solely doing this. As much as we wish they did, Magic cards don’t pay the rent, or help towards gas and hotel costs when traveling to events. However, trading is a good way to get full retail value for cards, considering most people trade at TCG average or SCG.

If you plan on trading a lot, it’s important to remember to see as many binders as possible. I know that I am personally guilty of only going to a very small LGS because it’s five minutes away from where I live. After a while, trading can get quite stale. Take advantage of opportunities to broaden your connections, and you’ll meet many new players who need your cards!

1.5. Pucatrade:

Pucatrade.com is a website that just recently came out of beta and is now in revised (ha). You put up a list of cards you have for trade and send them to people who have that card on their want list. When the recipient confirms he or she got the card, you receive the cards’ value in “PucaPoints.” Once you’ve accumulated some points, you put cards on your own want list, and people can send you those cards in exchange for your PucaPoints. Unfortunately, there are some features that are behind a paywall, so if you’re looking for things like foil cards, e-mail notifications, or an advanced search feature, there’s a subscription fee involved.

Personally, I’ve had great success using the site to trade off cards that are hard to move in my local area (getting $72 in trade for a [card]Rishadan Port[/card] and $90 for a [card]Polluted Delta[/card] seems fine, especially when there is nobody else in my local area who plays Legacy). I can save these points to get other cards for speculating or foils for my EDH decks. It’s also a good way for players who don’t have high-dollar cards to slowly trade smaller cards into bigger ones little by little. If you don’t care about special features and just want to trade, the site is free to use, so I highly recommend trying it out regardless of if you can afford the paid benefits. Just take Nick Becvar ‘s word for it, he’s certainly using it to his advantage to speculate on targets such as Forced Fruition, foil Griselbrand, and foil ZEN basics.

bevcarpuca

Also, if you’re not following Becvar on Twitter, you should be. He’s often ahead of the curve on price spikes, and is good at pointing out cards with stupidly low spreads (the difference between the highest buy price and the average sell price). You can find him @Becvar, because he’s probably the only person in the world with that last name [Ed. Note: except possibly for his dad].

2. eBay and TCG Player:

I’m going to lump both of these outlets together because they are very similar. I have personally sold very little on eBay but am max level on TCG Player. Both websites provide a solid way to turn your collection into cash (well, money directly deposited into your bank account, but you get the point). From here on out, when I refer to eBay, I am talking about BIN (Buy it Now) listings and not auctions. Here are some benefits and downsides to each site, so you can figure out which works best for you.

  • Cost to list: eBay’s listings are free initially, but cost an insertion fee once you pass 50 listings in a month. Listing a card on TCG Player is free no matter what. If you plan on selling more than 50 items in a month, but don’t want to set up an official eBay store, then TCG Player might be better for you. You don’t want to eat the costs for putting up items that may not even sell, and that will happen on eBay.

  • Fees: TCG Player’s fee for selling a card is 11% + $.50 per order, not taking shipping into account. eBay’s fees are 12.9% of your sale (10% goes to eBay, 2.9% goes to PayPal), also not including shipping. Given these fees, it is more cost-efficient to sell cheaper cards on eBay, and more expensive cards on TCG Player. I believe that the tipping point for being better to sell on TCG Player is approximately $26.00 for a listing (my math skills are really bad, and that may or may not be correct. Feel free to correct me).

  • Time to list: Multiple friends of mine who sell on eBay (including Brainstorm Brewery’s own Jason Alt, @JasonEAlt on Twitter. If you’re not following him, you have me honestly astounded) have informed me that it takes much longer to list cards on eBay. One of the reasons is that eBay will no longer accept stock pictures of cards from Gatherer, so you would have to take the picture yourself and upload it. Doing that for every listing takes much more time. As financiers, we all know: time is money.

  • Extra options: eBay gives you the option to pay $50 and become an “eBay store”, which grants access to lower fees and more free listings. This is obviously a benefit if you would have otherwise spent over $50 in fees while selling on eBay.

  • Navigation: The storefront on TCG Player is extremely easy to navigate and is very user-friendly. For example: when listing a card, TCG Player will bring up the current lowest price + shipping per card, per listing. This is very helpful when trying to match the lowest price to ensure your card sells quickly.

In the end, it’s up to you to take these pros and cons and figure out which of these sites is right for you. The nice thing is that neither service requires you to take much time out of your day. Just a few clicks on a computer or phone, and a few minutes to package and ship.

To me, it appears that TCG Player is a better out if you want to get rid of higher-valued cards at a slower pace, especially if you don’t have much time. eBay looks to be your better option if you plan on doing a much higher volume of sales and have more time on your hands to spend listing items.

3. Social Media

Most of you reading this article (if I have a readerbase large enough that the word “most” can mean two or three, I’ll be overjoyed) probably have a Facebook, or some other form of social media. Making an Excel spreadsheet of the cards you have for sale and slapping it onto the page of your local Facebook MTG group can net you a surprising number of sales (don’t have a local Facebook MTG group? Make one. It’s an excellent way to keep in touch with everyone you regularly play or trade with, and allows you to contact all of them at once).

You can list cards for the TCG low, or a certain percentage under the average, and still make more money then listing on eBay or TCG, because you won’t have to deal with fees, shipping, or supplies like toploaders, sleeves, printer ink, and envelopes. This is personally my favorite way to sell cards. You can almost always meet face-to-face to check condition of cards, you build a reputation as an honest seller, and both parties have the opportunity to negotiate. If my [card]Hero’s Downfall[/card]s aren’t selling on TCGplayer at $13.00, and I list them on my spreadsheet that I’m selling them at $11, I’ll probably take $10 if someone asks, considering the highest buylist price right now is $8.00.

3.5. Craigslist:

Craigslist doesn’t have to be the land of $300 shoeboxes of Ice Age commons. In addition to Facebook, posting reasonably-priced singles on Craigslist might bring players out of the woodwork. I’ve also heard that this is a good place to unload bulk commons and uncommons for anywhere from $8-$10 per thousand, where most retail stores will only give you $5 per thousand. This also beats dragging massive amounts of bulk to larger events, or eating shipping costs by sending it to stores in the mail.

4. Sell for your LGS:

This option will be feasible for fewer readers then the previous three, but I feel the need to mention it because it is a huge boon to the community if you can pull it off. I have lived in two cities in the past three years where the LGS was unable to sell MTG singles. While you do need a larger collection to attempt this, it’s an option to offer a deal with your LGS owner: if they can provide you with the space to sell cards, then they can take a cut of your profits. Even if they don’t have a spare glass display case, you can generally find those on Craigslist for only a couple hundred dollars, a cost you might be able to split with the LGS.

If you’re a regular FNM goer, this doesn’t have to be much more effort than you already put into MTG finance. Just restock the case when you stop by as you normally would. Selling cards out of a display case also gives you an opportunity to get cards for buylist prices.

5. Buylists:

I have to admit, I cringe at the word “buylist” sometimes. To a lot of players, buylisting means getting rid of cards at much lower than full value, taking hours to fill an online shopping cart, sort the cards in the correct set order, and then waiting forever to get paid, only for the store to reduce your payment because they felt that the cards were not up to their standards of NM. Sometimes these things can indeed happen.

Buylisting is my least favorite part of making money off of Magic, but sometimes it can be a necessary evil. Buylisting copies of [card]Dark Confidant[/card], [card]Snapcaster Mage[/card], and other liquid staples generally isn’t the correct play, but where else are you going to get someone to pay you the TCG mid price of $.50 for each of your [card]Judge’s Familiar[/card]s or [card]Selesnya Charm[/card]s? This is where buylisting comes in handy, especially if you tend to purchase a lot of collections, since you probably have a lot of playable commons and uncommons around.

Since buylisting is so boring and time-consuming (well, at least for me. If you actually enjoy the process, you might be able to market yourself off to lazier financiers such as myself), some noble paragons from the MTG finance heavens have created tools to help us quickly determine which stores have the highest buylist prices. Quiet Speculation’s Trader Tools, a wonderful little program found at mtg.gg, lets you search for the highest buylist price of any card. If you want to see which store is offering that price, though, you’ll have to subscribe to become an Insider at the site, which grants a bunch of other neat features. MTG Price also offers a buylist aggregator on its website, so you can figure out exactly to which store you should send your 10+ copies of [card]Exsanguinate[/card]. Each program has some stores that the other doesn’t, so using both can secure you maximum value. In my experience, Card Kingdom, ABU Games, Adventures On, and Troll and Toad consistently have the highest buy prices and process orders quickly.

Now You Know Your Outs

I hope that at least some of this information was new to everyone, because it’s a goal of mine as a writer to make sure that readers walk away with something new every piece. I know that this article could be improved, so please use the comment section below. Have constructive criticism as to outlets left out? Care to critique the content of the article itself? Here’s your chance. I want to learn from my readers as much as you do from me. Also, I’m looking to name my column, and am very open to ideas. Thanks for reading!

Michael Cuevas – Weekend Recap 12/13-12/15

 

My name is Michael Cuevas, and like many other players, I remember playing Magic: the Gathering, as a young kid.  I also remember giving my collection away around the age of 14 because cool kids weren’t supposed to play magic; wow do I regret that decision. I am 27 now, and a couple of years ago, due to a bit of nostalgia, and a coupon that came in the mail from my LGS, I decided to buy a few booster packs. Remember kids, the first one is always free. I then played a couple of FNMs with a white weenie pre-con from the Innistrad block, which of course snowballed into me picking up the game again.

Building a collection of Magic cards can be a daunting task and can be very expensive no matter what kind of budget you are working with.  It is equally frustrating when the cards you purchase lose their value within mere months.  I learned very quickly how to parlay the value of my cards from one standard rotation to the next, and through that process, became quite involved with the financial aspect of the game.  Following the release of Return to Ravnica, I began a “pack to power” project, with a pack a friend had decided had  no value and gave to me. [card]Wild Beastmaster[/card] was the rare.  The only card of note was a [card]Selesnya charm[/card], which became a [card]Lingering Souls[/card], which started the chain of trades.  Around nine months later, I finished my project, trading the contents of my binder for a Beta [card]Time Twister [/card]with moderate play.  (Full disclosure, the twister’s border was inked by a previous owner to cover the wear on the whitening edges, but I still consider this a success.)  I’ve also spent some time traveling to magic events across the Midwest.

Through my experience, I will look to provide insight into which cards are poised to move based on tournament results.  The purpose of this column, will be to recap the events of the weekend, point out cards on the move, and identify emerging archetypes.  This weekend in particular was choc-full of magic events, with both the Star City open and invitational events taking place in Las Vegas.

The safe bet this weekend in standard was once again Mono-black devotion which was the deck of choice for both Timothy Rivera, the Standard Open champion, and Maxwell Brown, the Invitational champ.  Both players moved to four mainboard copies of [card]Pack Rat[/card].  This is something that Mono-black has been trending toward, and something that Haibing Hu had done last week in his Mono Black list he Top 8’d with at Grand Prix Dallas/Fort Worth.  In the finals of the invitational, Max Brown was quite dominant, not dropping a single game throughout the Top 8. Despite the Mono-black deck’s dominance this weekend, Standard has been quite diverse as of late.

Consider Jim Davis’ Naya Devotion decklist.   He was able to pilot this list to a 7-1 record through the standard portion of the tournament, a record that no mono-black pilot was able to match.  This deck ran two copies of [card]Mindsparker[/card];  not a card that has seen a lot of attention at the top tables, but one can see how this card can be effective in this shell, and the 3/2 first strike with upside can be an effective clock on its own.  This deck also has access to [card]Domri Rade[/card], [card]Chandra, Pyromaster[/card] and [card]Xenagos, the Reveler[/card].  Chandra’s first two abilities are very powerful, and as demonstrated by the price spike this card made earlier this year, I am not the only one who feels that this card has the potential to dominate the standard format.  The planeswalkers that this Naya deck presents are resilient threats in a removal-heavy format.  The premise of the Naya devotion deck is essentially the same as the R/W devotion list, and as many players were packing the R/W, this Naya list could potentially just be better suited to the meta-game that has developed.

Andrew Shrout brought a unique take on the G/W aggro archetype to the invitational this weekend.  His build seems like an effective way to combat the Esper, U/W control, and the Mono-blue decklists that made up a larger part of the meta-game at the invitational.  This deck is pre-boarded for basically any blue deck with 4 [card]Skylasher[/card], and 4 [card]Mistcutter Hydra[/card] in the mainboard.  [card]Skylasher[/card] currently is a bulk rare.  With the U/W and the G/W scry land seeing print in the next set, smoothing out the mana for the U/W control list, as well as the G/W creature based decks that would be interested in the ‘lasher, this could be a relevant threat.  At bulk rare prices, [card]Skylasher[/card] can’t go any lower.  At any rate, I like the idea of acquiring a few extra playsets of the cards that are staples in the G/W archetype.  TCG is listing [card]Advent of the Wurm[/card] at $2.71 with shipping included, copies of [card]Fleecemane Lion[/card] can be picked up at $2.73, and [card]Boon Satyr[/card] at $2.34.  I don’t necessarily advocate buying these cards in cash, but these are cards I am targeting out of trade binders.  When a new set is released, aggressive decks are often successful in the first few weeks, and this is when I would be looking to see the G/W cards see a spike in their values.  Shrout’s deck was also innovative in that it had a transformational sideboard to where it could become a pseudo-hexproof deck.  Capitalizing on the same enchantment, [card]Unflinching Courage[/card] that was quite popular before the last rotation.  This transformational strategy was likely quite useful in matchups against other aggressive strategies.

[card]Ratchet Bomb[/card] made an appearance as a 3-of in the sideboard of Gregory Hatch’s Mono-blue decklist.  [card]Ratchet Bomb[/card] answers a vast number of threats, and frees threats from [card]Detention Sphere[/card].  In a recent article, Reid Duke identified [card]Ratchet Bomb[/card] as a “hidden gem” of standard.  I tend to agree and have been baffled why this card hasn’t seen more attention.  Copies can be picked up for $1.49 on TCGplayer.  On its versatility alone, [card]Ratchet Bomb[/card] is probably a safe trade target, and it may see more attention if the aforementioned G/W aggro strategies are token based, or adapt Shrout’s hexproof approach.

We also saw a lot of Legacy this weekend.  Likely as a nod to [card]True-Name Nemesis[/card], Jund made a resurgence this weekend.  Jund packs several answers to the mini-[card]Progenitus[/card] and is a potent strategy in its own right.  The problem with Jund is that it is weaker to combo strategies, and many players who wish to ignore [card]True-Name Nemesis[/card] outright have moved to combo strategies.  That didn’t stop two of the players who made the cut to top 8 at the invitational from piloting the deck successfully through the legacy portion of the tournament.  Notably, [card]Deathrite Shaman[/card] is a four-of in Jund, Elves, and Esper Death-Blade lists. That’s just legacy.  It also sees a ton of play in Modern in some of the most successful archetypes, and it’s still standard legal.

Max Brown, the eventual winner of the invitational decided to run Omni-tell this weekend, and proclaimed that part of the allure of the deck was the lack of following that it had.  I think this is the deck’s appeal over the Sneak and Show version.  It is of note that Brian Braun-Duin utilized [card]Ashen Rider[/card] out of the sideboard in his Sneak and Show list.  This is an adaptation that many are making in their sideboards to combat the sneak and show strategy.  [card]Ashen Rider[/card] has nearly reached bulk mythic prices, and is poised to see as much attention as [card]Angel of Despair[/card] from competitive players.  What is curious to me is whether the driving force behind [card]Angel of Despair[/card]’s value is due to competitive play, or rather, due to its casual appeal.  Either way, picking up [card]Ashen Rider[/card]s at their current value in trade is likely a safe long-term play.  It is probable that you can get these as throw-ins in trades from disinterested players.

The Legacy open maintained the trend we saw earlier in the weekend with two copies of Jund in the top 8.  I think it is very telling when a grizzled RUG Delver veteran, such as Jacob Wilson moves away from playing RUG, and opts for a different deck.  Moving to the top 4 of the Legacy open, three of the four players were on a Delver variant.  One of Jund’s best matchups is RUG Delver.  RUG generally has very few ways to create card advantage, and Jund will simply one for one with them gaining card advantage at every turn.  Facing down three Delver players, I felt that this was Jund’s tournament to lose.  Ultimately the Jund player, Cory Teran, fell to Jacob Wilson in the finals.  I think Jund at least for now, is the format’s answer to [card]True-Name Nemesis[/card].

I can imagine a day where players opt to play [card]Geist of Saint Traft[/card] over [card]True-name nemesis[/card] because the former doesn’t die to [card]Golgari Charm[/card].  The Legacy meta-game is shifting due to [card]True-Name Nemesis[/card], and the full impact of the card on the format is likely yet to be seen.

I am very excited at the opportunity that the gang from Brainstorm Brewery has presented me in bringing you a synopsis of the action from the weekend, and giving some insight in what cards are trending.  I look forward to feedback from readers and providing more analysis to you in the upcoming weeks.

 

[poll id=”5″]

Houston Whitehead – The Financial Five: Mono-Colored Devotion

When you were younger, did you and your friends ever race up the stairwell at school? “Race you to the top, Jimmy!”  Well, I was the freakishly tall kid that could climb two stairs per step and could beat even the fastest one-step-at-a-time friends. That freakishly tall kid is devotion.  This new Theros mechanic has created not only a new way to play but a new way to build decks.  Now you can accelerate your mana while also playing creatures that matter.  All your opponent can do is throw marbles (i.e. removal spells) up the stairs and hope you fall on your face, or at least force you to take one step at a time like everyone else.  My point is that devotion is here to stay.  Sometimes you ramp up a nut draw (three stairs at a time) and sometimes your opponent can keep your devotion under three to force fair play (one stair at a time).

devotion

Devotion has also transformed the CMC (converted mana cost) category in card evaluation.  We all wanted to play [card]Phyrexian Obliterator[/card], but many times the mana cost just couldn’t justify hedging the mana base that far for a single card. Now the mana cost is less of a restriction and more of a perk, giving life to four, five, and six drops that come down one or two turns early without the hassle of mana rocks (Cluestones, [card]Chromatic Lantern[/card]) or mana dorks ([card]Elvish Mystic[/card], [card]Sylvan Caryatid[/card]).

We have all seen the price spike of cards like [card]Boros Reckoner[/card], [card]Nightveil Specter[/card], [card]Pack Rat[/card], [card]Lifebane Zombie[/card], and [card]Tidebinder Mage[/card], partially due to their utility of keeping devotion high. I’ve picked five cards from most of the color wheel that could see a similar jump with the release of Born of the Gods and forward.

[card]Hammer of Purphoros[/card] ($1)

hammer of pIt still blows my mind that this card is sitting at a dollar.  Everyone seems to currently be hyped up on the Mono-Black Devotion train. This just makes me picture [card]Purphoros, God of the Forge[/card] sitting in the corner hitting nails into a wooden 2 x 4. Turn 2 [card]Ash Zealot[/card], T3 [card]Burning-Tree Emissary[/card] + [card]Hammer of Purphoros[/card] + [card]Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx[/card] = Early smoke/food/restroom break.  Giving haste to all your top decks and making extra lands into 3/3’s lets red decks do what they usually can’t: win through a flood.  I call my mono-red devotion deck “Moses said so,” because not even a sea can stand in the way of these devoted red creatures. I know it’s a rare from one of the largest selling sets in Magic: The Gathering history, but trust me when I say, cards get hard to come by when the next set comes out.

[card]Heliod, God of the Sun[/card] ($5)

heliodThis card need a solid two-drop (CMC WW, of course) for consistent success in competitive play. Ramping out tokens with the extra mana may not increase devotion, but playing just enough creatures to keep devotion at five or six can apply pressure while also preparing for a post-board sweeper hand vomit.   The card has a $5 price tag, the cheapest of the first five gods. Picking up three for yourself and three to trade off later could set you up for some quick profits.  As a mythic and a poster child of the Theros set, all it takes is a two or three copies in a top-eight list to set up a profitable dump.

[card]Arbor Colossus[/card] ($1)

arbor colossusGGG and 2 colorless has never been so easy to cast as in this two-color-or-less format.  A 6/6 creature with reach that can swat down anything in the skies of Standard AND shoots down a flier next turn! What’s not to love? This, my friends, is not a dollar rare.  Nothing about this card should place it in the box of bulk rares you put in a shoe box under your bed.  If curving out into odd CMCs (3, 5, 7) is a goal for green decks in future Standard, this guy will be first in line.  Pick up as many of this monster as you can, as long as you don’t make [card]Polukranos, World Eater[/card] (aka Pocahontas, World Eater) jealous.  That guy knows how to fight….

[card]Boon Satyr[/card] ($3)

boon satyrI like to think of this guy as a five-turn clock with an upside.  This card is a beast and when I started picking copies up it was sitting at a dollar.  It is now up to $3 but still has potential to rise.  Knowing this is an enchantment-based block, any efficient bestow creatures or powerful enchantment amplifiers can crank his potential up another notch.  [card]Ethereal Armor[/card] is already a built-in combo!  He trades with almost every creature on the ground and makes every control player cry when he survives a [card]Supreme Verdict[/card] (when bestowed of course).  I can see, at minimum, a price double to $6 in the near future.

[card]Nighthowler[/card] ($.50)

nighthowler promoWith the G/B scry land coming to a pack near you, I see [card]Nighthowler[/card] being a part of a tier-one self-mill strategy.  I know cards like this have been printed in the past, but the bestow ability could give this card the playability it needs to break into Standard.  [card]Commune with the Gods[/card] and [card]Grisly Salvage[/card] both help you grow his power and toughness, and one at instant speed.  Even scrying off the new G/B scry dual land or a [card]Reaper of the Wilds[/card] trigger could increase the consistency of your “build your own fattie.” Honestly, you could probably trade the lint in your belly button for this guy right now.  All it takes is a playable two- or three-drop trampler to give [card]Nighthowler[/card] a chance to show howl hard he can punch.

Final Thoughts

Sadly, many of the black and blue devotion playables have saturated Top 8’s enough recently to create a higher demand and price.  Keep an eye on these staples when these strategies fall out of favor and drop to a reasonable level.  With so many more cards yet to spoil in future expansions, there’s a good chance those strategies will eventually be reincarnated to fight the future metas.

Houston ‘Ginger Ale’ Whitehead
Follow: @TNSGingerAle
Listen: Tap N Sac Podcast (RSS Feed)
Read: TNSGingerAle.com

MtG After Hours #5 – Technologically Inept

This weeks episode is from episode 81 of Brainstorm Brewery.  Listen to Ryan moan and groan his way to publishing his first article on BrainstormBrewery.com. See he has submitted articles before, but doesn’t understand the work involve on the next step.  It doesn’t sound like much, but it is quite the hilarious experience.

MtG After Hours is basically all the good shit that gets cut on the editing floor. Often while recording a podcast, the banter that’s not being recorded for the show can sometime be better than the actual episode. Get a rare behind the scenes in to the minds of your favorite podcasters, the featured podcast will rotate each week.

Andrew Colman – Serum Visions: Pro Tour – Brews of the Gods

Welcome back to Serum Visions everyone!

It’s been a busy time in the craft beer/home brew world of my home town, Winnipeg. We recently had the inaugural Half Pints Pro-Am Brew Challenge  (both professional and amateur brewers can enter), hosted by our local home-brew club, the Winnipeg Brew Bombers (WBB), named after our CFL football team, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. The competition was a monumental success! It had just over 400 entries, which is amazing for a first-time competition. The WBB brought in all the best judges from Western Canada and they had nothing but great things to say about the how the event was run. The winning brew was a spruce-tip-infused beer by a brewer from Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. I would describe it as a rogue beer, bringing up images of John Loucks winning a PTQ with a rogue [card]Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker[/card] build, but there is a popular brewery called Rogue from Oregon and this brewer does not work for it.

I decided to write on this topic this week because I was encouraged to enter the competition by the Vice President of WBB (@Phillips_Global). I heard about the event when it was originally announced, but I wasn’t too concerned about entering. It seemed like every person I knew was asking me if I was going to enter, and I responded to all, “No, that’s not why I brew beer.” But eventually I was convinced, and after having gone through the process and the excitement of it all, let me tell you, I’ll be mailing my beer across the country to enter other brew contests. What’s so cool about it? Let me explain with an MTG metaphor.

Making your beer is like building a deck. The first time you build one, you’re probably going to end up with an 86-card pile that runs triple-red costed spells that you think are good because you’ve got three Mountains in the pile! This is similar to what my first beer was like, an absolute disaster. (Incidentally, my first deck was a precon, the M11 blue starter with a foil [card]Stormtide Leviathan[/card], and it’s still probably my favorite deck ever.)

Once you learn enough about brewing, you’ll start making beer that people will happily drink and enjoy. This is like FNM – it’s fun and enjoyable, but it doesn’t mean you’re good enough to compete at a GP. Before this competition, this is where I was at in the beer-making world.

Since I hadn’t really planned on entering a beer, I entered one already in the brewing process that had just started carbonating in the bottle. It was meant to be a Cascadian dark ale, or black IPA, but my friend and I were a bit tipsy by the time we were adding the final water to the carboy and we added two extra liters. So It went from being a CDA to a dark version of an APA. That’s not all bad though, because it meant we had two liters more beer! It was, however, detrimental for my grading in the competition. I’ll explain the mechanics of how a beer judging goes so you’ll understand why.

How Beer is Judged

The whole process starts out with an organization called the BJCP, Beer Judge Certification Program. This is basically the equivalent of Magic’s DCI. The BJCP trains judges and there are different levels of judges depending on experience. One neat thing is that a judge can enter a competition in which he or she is judging, meaning a judge can make his beer and drink it too! So what the BJCP has done is set out a document called the BJCP Style Guide that describes each type of beer that will be judged. There are are 23 main categories and most of those have subcategories. You can find a link to the style guide here.

Here’s an example of how one would classify a Guinness:

13A. Dry Stout (which incidentally is the style of the week. Read these notes and then go check out some local versions and see how they stand up to the BJCP)

Aroma: Coffee-like roasted barley and roasted malt aromas are prominent; may have slight chocolate, cocoa, and/or grainy secondary notes. Esters medium-low to none. No diacetyl. Hop aroma low to none.

Appearance: Jet black to deep brown with garnet highlights in color. Can be opaque (if not, it should be clear). A thick, creamy, long-lasting, tan- to brown-colored head is characteristic.

Flavor: Moderate roasted, grainy sharpness, optionally with light to moderate acidic sourness, and medium to high hop bitterness. Dry, coffee-like finish from roasted grains. May have a bittersweet or unsweetened chocolate character in the palate, lasting into the finish. Balancing factors may include some creaminess, medium-low to no fruitiness, and medium to no hop flavour. No diacetyl.

Mouthfeel: Medium-light to medium-full body, with a creamy character. Low to moderate carbonation. For the high-hop bitterness and significant proportion of dark grains present, this beer is remarkably smooth. The perception of body can be affected by the overall gravity with smaller beers being lighter in body. May have a light astringency from the roasted grains, although harshness is undesirable.

Overall Impression: A very dark, roasty, bitter, creamy ale.

Vital Statistics:                         OG: 1.036 – 1.050 (original gravity/sugar content)

IBUs: 30 – 45  (bitterness)    FG: 1.007 – 1.011 (final sugar content)

SRM: 25 – 40  (colour)           ABV: 4 – 5% (alcohol by volume)

 

This is only half of the style guide, but for the sake of word count, it’s the “important half.”

Judges go through years of training to understand what each beer descriptor means so that they can objectively judge a beer on its merits rather than on how much they enjoy it. Each judge is assigned a style for a judging session, and each style is assigned to at least three judges. So, every beer will be tasted by three judges who will all score the beer individually. They get served the beer in a small, clear plastic cup with one to two ounces of beer per sample. If they were judging a Guinness, they would consider how it compares to the other entries with regards to aroma, appearance, flavor, and mouthfeel, finishing with an overall impression. Each of these categories is assigned a certain amount of points and you get a final score out of 50. The judges need to be within seven points of each other – if they are more than seven points apart, they discuss the beer and then adjust their scores. However, considering all three judges scored me at 19/50, I am pretty confident in their objectivity and accuracy!

Each category and subcategory has a first, second, and third place beer, and the winning brewers receive medals. The event culminates with the award for the first, second, and third place best-of-show beers.

So How Did It Go?

There was one gentleman there who is basically the Reid Duke of the Canadian home-brewing scene – there was actually one category where he won all three medals. I stopped counting how many medals he won somewhere after ten. A home brewer like this will end up entering 15+ beers and just shoot to win as many as he can. Last year he was named by the BJCP as the winningest brewer in the country!

So, if you’ll recall, I topped up my beer with two liters too much water. What does this do to a beer? It [card]goblin grenade[/card]s it so far out of its category it’s note even funny. In fact, it’s down right depressing. The beer is good – I have gotten lots of compliments on it from a couple of proper beer snobs – but it was just not to style. Therefore, it couldn’t possibly score very well. I have come to describing it like this: “I entered a good pink painting into red painting contest.” It just had no chance.

There is a light at the end of this tunnel though! This is beer, not Magic, and beer falls into the grocery line of my budget. If Magic did too, I’d be playing in GPs, but my wife and I wouldn’t be eating. I certainly plan on entering more competitions, but next time I’ll do it proper. And I’m gonna win!

Thanks for hangin’.

Andrew

Ryan Bushard – Toronto: A Story of Charity and Chill

At the beginning of this month I took a road trip with my fellow co-host, Jason Alt, to the great land of Canada for Grand Prix Toronto.  Both of us went into the weekend planning on hanging out with friends rather than concentrating on selling and trading.  Overall, that goal was achieved and I was not disappointed with the result.  I was able to see people with whom I would normally only have internet contact, and I also participated in one of the cooler events I have ever had the pleasure to attend.

We left Friday and managed our way into town after hitting the border with relative ease early in the evening.  We found our way to the site but had a tough time finding anyone, so we got out of there quickly, ending up with a relatively quiet night of Commander and relaxation.  Refreshed and ready, the next day we got back to the convention center just in time for the start of round one…at noon (yes, you read correctly). Glad to not be one of those unfortunate souls in the extended main event, I shuffled around and sold some cards and caught up with my friends among the dealers.

After I made what money I needed, I headed over to find Jason, knowing that he was working at the charity event that was being held in the hall.  After I finally tracked him down, I found myself spending the rest of the day behind the booth gun slinging and chatting with fans and friends alike.  I had a great time and want to publicly thank everyone involved.

I was jamming every format all day and became particularly fond of some of Jason’s Commander decks, specifically [card]Mayael of the Anima[/card].  Participants could donate $2 for the chance to win a pack of Theros, or they could choose to donate more for a chance at some larger prizes.  Tons of people were behind planning this event, but spearheading was Ryan Abcede.  Beyond his masterminding, Matty Studios, Derf, Jason, Scotty Mac, and I spent a large chunk of our day behind the table getting our game on. I always love helping a good cause, so I was stoked to see how busy we were all weekend. Again, thanks to anyone who made it to the booth.

If you were not able to make the event and are still interested in donating, here is the link to do so.  Gamers playing for a good cause has always been a big deal for me and I really hope to see these types of events continue in the future.

Beyond the event itself, the weekend was very enjoyable – with the exception of the return border crossing.  When we came back into America, we stopped to turn our plastic back to paper and in the process took an 8.5% hit, which did not reflect our experience on the way in.  I was more than disgruntled to lose $100+ on the transaction, but what can you do?

A trip to Canada comes with the usual fries and gravy, but this time we also managed to find ourselves in a steakhouse with Matty Studios, Derf, Jason, and Ryan.  Fun was had by all and I was given a heckling for my Vorthos view of the upcoming year.  The steaks were great and the company was welcome, but I was glad to be home after all was said and done.  I spent the majority of the weekend with friends and hanging out with the walking form of sarcasm that is Jason, meaning I got little in the way of buying or selling done, but I did have a few sweet pickups including an artist proof [card]Underground Sea[/card] that has not been blemished by the ink of a pen.  Beyond that, I found a few more JSS [card]Elvish Champion[/card]s that I so love to pick up, as well as two German Commander decks. Eventually, Jason dragged me out of the hall to keep me from expending more.

I want to thank everyone again who made it out and for all of the companies and individuals that made the charity even work – smoother than the main event, I might add. Here’s some of the prizes that were donated:

Anonymous Donations by Local Players

[card]Scrubland[/card]

[card]Abrupt Decay[/card] (Foil)

[card]Grindstone[/card]

[card]Keiga, the Tide Star[/card] (Foil)

Worlds Collide

$400 worth of merchandise (added to raffle)

Cardboard Classic Games

EDH Bundle (highlights were foil [card]Arcum Dagson[/card] and a regular [card]Avacyn, Angel of Hope[/card], plus a box of their pins made out of cards and packs)

Various Judges

Two copies of Mind Seize, Commander 2013 (added to raffle)

Judge foils:

[card]Bribery[/card]

[card]Sword of Light and Shadow[/card]

[card]Genesis[/card]

[card]Crucible of Worlds[/card]

[card]Command Tower[/card]

Artist Donations

Custom sketch art playmat – Noah Bradley

Signed prints: [card]Black Lotus[/card], [card]Time Walk[/card], [card]Sword of Fire and Ice[/card], [card]Sword of Light and Shadow[/card]

Luis Scott-Vargas

Foil LSV tokens, signed by the man himself!

Box of returned stolen goods that were not claimed
HairyT, Westcan Events, and Bulldog Games

Provided booster packs for the spell slinging

20131130_212411

20131130_212001

20131130_210920

 

20131130_203229

 

20131130_204434

20131130_210704

20131130_210647

There were some awesome prizes avaiable, and I saw tons of people walk away with not just a prize, but a story that made their weekend. I personally enjoyed crushing a particular gentleman with a full foil combo deck who expected to crush a lowly podcaster. Instead, he was met with a [card]Worldspine Wurm[/card] strapped up with a [card]Bear Umbra[/card] which found an [card]It That Betrays[/card] to seal his fate on turn six.  Nothing makes me happier than crushing people who can pick a single card from their deck that is worth more than the entirety of mine.

I can’t wait for a runback with this awesome crowd in Montreal come the beginning of next year, but until then, Toronto is in the books and I am back in this frigid state that might as well be Canada.  My next article will likely involve some gaps in memory as the guys are insisting that we will not be sober for the majority of the weekend.  Thanks for reading and if you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter or in the comment section below.

 

Ryan Bushard

@CryppleCommand

 

Marc DeArmond – Casually Infinite: 10 Rules for Profit, Part One

Below are the 10 rules that I follow to be able to play infinitely on Magic Online. Many of these rules will probably garner their own articles to fully explain the reasoning behind them and how I enact them. But the first step is to give tips that will help you to stop making decisions that work against you. If you’ve already made bad choices before you have even entered a queue, you’re going to have a rough road ahead of you. Avoid the blunders and follow the rules below, even if you have extra cash to throw around.

Rule #1 – Pennies Matter, Don’t Give Them Up

I play Magic, I collect Magic, I trade and sell Magic, and I think about Magic as a hobby. I much prefer when my hobbies don’t cost me money or, better yet, make me money. However, I’m not in the business of Magic. I’m not trying to cover the cost of a vacation with my Magic cards (again). I enjoy getting good deals, spinning them around for tickets, and building my collection without throwing more money at it. I’m a school teacher with a house, a wife, and two kids. I just don’t have a lot of money to spend on my hobbies.

This is not how many people play Magic. Some people look at $15 and see that as a totally fair price to spend for a night of drafting. I’d actually agree that $15 is indeed a pretty good price for a night’s entertainment – if I find myself off my island for a Limited release event, I’d love to give it a try. However, I do live on an island and I don’t want to spend $15 every time I want to draft in order to keep up my game. I’d rather spend some time working good deals and try to make the 15 tix I need to play.

I get more thrills from making a good trade than I do from winning a casual game. So if the option is between trading and playing without a prize, I’d rather trade. If you’re one of those players for whom money isn’t really a factor with regards to playing Magic, then we approach the game very differently. While much of what I say is still relevant to managing your collection, it probably isn’t worth 30 minutes of trading for you to come out two or four tix ahead. But for me, that’s my definition of a good time.

Rule #2 – Never Buy Booster Packs from the Store

Booster packs from the store cost retail price – $3.99. Living in Washington, I pay tax on that, too. Almost every bot seller will sell boosters for less than retail price in tickets. If you’re going to pay cash, buy tickets and then buy packs from bots. Boosters can easily fall under three tix for many sets, especially core sets and third sets in a block. If you can save almost $1 per booster by buying from a bot in tickets, you should never buy from the store.

It is also important to realize that when playing Limited events, there are multiple options for entry fees. You can pay with tickets or product plus tickets. Never pay in just tickets unless it is an event with no other options (like a prerelease, Sealed release event, or some flashback queues). Entering a Draft queue costs either 14 tix or three boosters plus two tix. If you buy the boosters for three tix each, it will only cost you a total of 11 tix to enter the draft. In a case like this, you’ve saved yourself three tix before you even started playing. Even if the boosters are just down to 3.66, you’re still saving yourself a ticket by buying from bots instead of the store.

Rule #3 – Don’t Open Your Booster Packs

Just opening your packs instead of playing them in Limited is a terrible idea. Current sets will occasionally reach the point where you can expect 1.5 tix of value from opening a pack. Considering you bought that pack for around three tix (not $3.99 from the store), you’re probably going to lose at least 1.5 tix of value by opening the booster. Also, packs that sell for three tix are generally worth less than one ticket in average value once opened. In general, you can expect to lose about two tix in value whenever you open a pack. That is, unless you open it in a queue.

Playing Limited queues of any type provides much better returns than just opening a pack. Playing a Swiss Draft (the easiest to get prizes), costs two tix and three packs. You still get to open three packs. However, those two additional tickets give you a good chance of winning more packs, which can be turned into more tickets. In Swiss, you play three games no matter what (unless you drop). Winning one game gives you one pack, two games gives you two packs, and three games gives you three packs. Only one person who enters a Swiss Draft will lose all three games and get no packs. So unless you’re that person, you’ll come out ahead by playing in a Draft. You may even win three packs, essentially paying two tix for three packs in addition to whatever you opened in the packs you drafted. Playing in a Swiss Limited queue is a far better option than just opening your packs.

Rule #4 – This Isn’t Paper

The MTGO economy doesn’t function like the paper Magic economy. Price fluctuations happen more quickly, bulk rares are worth much less, and some things that are rare in paper aren’t necessarily as rare online. In contrast with Limited print runs in paper, there is often infinite product available on MTGO. While a paper product may sell out before it ever hits the shelves, it may be available for months online, allowing for many more copies to be in circulation. Older sets can show up as a flashback queues in MTGO, allowing for more packs to be introduced to the market years after the set has gone out of print.

Redemption also plays a big part of card value online. Full sets can be redeemed for paper cards up to two years after the initial period following a set’s release. When redemption goes live, a large flood of cards moves out of MTGO and into the paper market. This can cause cards to spike when redemption goes live (and people are trying to complete their sets) or after redemption (when so many cards were redeemed that there may now be a shortage online). After two years, cards approaching the redemption cutoff tend to rise in value only to drop shortly afterwards. However, post redemption, valuable cards are likely to rise if they have a home in Modern. Some sets are not redeemable but this doesn’t mean they have no value. Also, Wizards recently raised set redemption prices from $5 to $25. It’s not entirely clear what this will do to the market, but it doesn’t seem to have thrown anything too far out of whack.

Overall, the paper market tends to lag behind the MTGO market. It is important to realize the effect this has. Cards seeing play during pro tour weekends will jump within hours, not days or weeks. Also, the MTGO market has immediate transactions between all players. You buy the card, you get it right away. Not within a week, not within a few weeks. Sellers can’t cancel orders, and once you’ve sold a card, you immediately get the tickets.

Rule #5 – Rare Draft

I actually stopped playing Draft in favor of Sealed because of this particular topic, but if you’re going to play non-phantom Drafts, you need to come up with a price point for rare drafting. When you rare draft you pick a card that is worth tickets instead of a card that goes in your deck. For example, back in a Magic 2012 Draft, in the third pack I picked a [card]Garruk, Primal Hunter[/card] without another green card in my deck. While I’d never try to move into green during the third pack for a 2GGG-cost card, the fact that it was worth 15 tix meant that it would pay for my entire Draft. I could have grabbed the [card]Doom Blade[/card] instead, but it wasn’t going to make as much of a difference as grabbing the 15-ticket planeswalker. By taking Garruk, I made sure that even if I lost the entire Draft, I’d still come out a couple of tickets ahead.

Finding your own price is important and comparing the cards you’d draft instead of the rare card also matters. For me, I’ll always grab a card that’s worth three tix or more. After the first pick of a pack, I’ll pretty much always grab a one-ticket card rather than let it pass. Once things get down to 10+ picks, I’ll generally grab an uncommon over commons that I won’t play, simply because I can sell it to a bulk buyer for .01 or .02 tix. There’s more danger rare drafting in larger tournaments and even in 8-4 Drafts than in Swiss. But regardless of what queue you’re drafting in, you need to know your price points and card values for the set(s) you’re drafting.

 

That’s all for this time. Join me next week for part two, where I will detail steps six through ten.

Enmou Gao – Intermediate Speculation

I’ve been getting lucky with specs lately, calling both [card]Threads of Disloyalty[/card] and [card]Splinter Twin[/card], but maybe, just maybe, I’ve figured something out. Many speculators will already know the information in this article, but since information tends to be asymmetrical (in that people don’t always know the same information), I think it will be helpful to many to put down in words some ideas on the process of speculation.

The reason that you want to familiarize with the thought process behind speculation is that it is something literally anyone can do. Think of the below steps as a check list, if you will, that can help to give you a green light on a spec before you have to consult anyone else about it. The best part is that with this information, you’ll be able to convey the spec to fellow financiers so that others can give opinions. You’ll also be able to add to the conversation when other speculators make calls.

But first, a word of clarification. Speculation means different things depending on who you ask.

There’s long-term speculation, which Quiet Speculation-writer Sigmund Ausfresser recommends. This involves buying sealed booster boxes and long-term-outlook cards, like [card]Restoration Angel[/card], [card]Cavern of Souls[/card], and [card]Geist of Saint Traft[/card], that will likely gain 20% or more per year.

Then there’s the bulk speculation that Brainstorm Brewery members Jason Alt, Ryan Bushard, Marcel White, and Corbin Hosler favor. The basic idea is to buy an underpriced card like [card]Desecration Demon[/card] at a near-bulk price, hoping that the card eventually becomes competitively viable as the meta shifts.

Lastly, there is the short-term speculation that will be discussed in the context of this article, which favors a smaller inventory and faster turnover. The idea is to buy in to a card, like [card]Threads of Disloyalty[/card] and [card]Splinter Twin[/card], at the point right before the card takes off.

So how do we get in on the right cards at the right time?

I’ve listed a series of questions to ponder in trying to answer the question. The question of when and on what to speculate is a tremendously difficult question that needs to be broken up into parts.

Question 1: Is the card a staple in a format?

By far, this is the question that narrows down the most number of cards. Yes, some research is required on your part, such as looking up the information on MTGGoldfish, Metamox, MTGTop8, or MTGIndex. I tend to use MTGGoldfish because the data is directly correlated to the results to the Daily Events on MODO, which makes it incredibly up-to-date and a good reflection of the current meta. However, MTGGoldfish is likely to not do a great job for the time being since Daily Events are down until December 11.

The idea behind the question is this: is there a demand for this card? I remember that there was someone on Reddit who had over 7,000 copies of [card]Worldslayer[/card]. However, because no one else wants the card, there is little value to hoarding copies of it (aside from personal value).

Question 2: How many copies are available on TCGPlayer?

Now we get to the supply side of things. I sincerely believe that supply is a greater driver of price than demand, although some level of demand has to exist for the supply to matter. The fact of the matter is that while demand is fickle, supply will more or less be consistent and predictable. You can read more about why supply matters from my previous article here.

The magic number of vendor listings that will pique my interest is 100 or less, including damaged cards and other conditions. You can adjust the exact number based on the circumstances, but once the number of vendor listing goes below 50, you can expect prices will begin spiking.

If there are multiple printings of the card, the supply is more complicated. For the most part, different arts will have similar prices, although that’s not always the case (see [card]Thoughtseize[/card]). Cards with multiple printings generally aren’t good spec targets except for the long-term.

On a similar vein, if a card’s lowest TCG shipped price is close to its TCG mid price, it’s also a positive signal for trades because you’ll be getting close to complete value for your trades. Being able to sell a card at close to its TCG mid price is attractive because it means that card is that much more liquid.

Question 3: Are copies sold out on other major online vendor websites?

Another way to gauge supply is to check the number of copies available at other websites. This is key to determining that it’s not just a few people deciding to buy out TCG Player. The biggest vendor is, of course, Star City Games, but others, like eBay, Amazon, Card Kingdom, Channel Fireball, Troll and Toad, and Cool Stuff Inc., are also good indicators. The key question to answer here is whether the spec is real or just a localized fluke.

Question 4: What is the current spread for the card?

Perhaps the easiest question of the bunch, you can go on MTG.GG to access Quiet Speculation’s free tool showing TCG mid prices and the highest buylist prices. The lower the spread, the better, and if it’s 0 or negative, bingo! Ideally, you want a card that the dealers are noticing, as well. If dealers are also interested in the card, it bodes well for lowering the supply of low-priced copies on the market, eventually raising the overall price.

Question 5: What is the MTGO price for the card?

While not necessarily a driver of physical prices, MTGO prices can be telling about the true competitive demand for a card in question. Do keep in mind that mythics tend to be overvalued on MTGO and rares undervalued due to redemption. With these factors in mind, when a rare is much higher on MTGO than its paper version and is played competitively, it may be ready for a price hike (see [card]Fulminator Mage[/card]). However, because of the difference in casual markets between MTGO and the paper game, the price correlation isn’t always going to exist.

Question 6: What do I do with all the information?

Like with all decisions, you weigh the costs and benefits. The cost you already know: it is the current price of the card plus shipping. The benefit is a weighted average between the spec hitting and not hitting, the chances of those respective scenarios, and the monetary value/trade value that can be gained in each scenario.  Remember, not all of your specs will hit, and certainly not at the time that you predict. However, by answering these questions correctly, your spec is more likely to hit quickly.

Post Modern

There hasn’t been any talk about shock lands for a while, so I thought I’d necro the shock land discussion!

To me, the shock lands have been following the projected prices. I may or may not be right, but I think I have the right idea.

[card]Blood Crypt[/card], [card]Hallowed Fountain[/card], [card]Overgrown Tomb[/card], [card]Steam Vents[/card], and [card]Temple Garden[/card] will likely see price increases come February or March, while [card]Breeding Pool[/card], [card]Godless Shrine[/card], [card]Sacred Foundry[/card], [card]Stomping Ground[/card], and [card]Watery Grave[/card] have likely already passed their high points.

Please see the graphs below for examples.

Woodland Cemetery

[card]Woodland Cemetery[/card] reached its highest point about a month after its Return to Ravnica equivalent, [card]Overgrown Tomb[/card], was printed.

Sulfur Falls

[card]Sufur Falls[/card] reached its peak right as its Return to Ravnica equivalent, [card]Steam Vents[/card], was released.

Isolated Chapel

Do you see the pattern yet? [card]Isolated Chapel[/card] was at its zenith right after its Gatecrash equivalent, [card]Godless Shrine[/card], entered the market.

Clifftop Retreat

One more for good measure! [card]Clifftop Retreat[/card] was at its highest price point about a month after its Gatecrash equivalent, [card]Sacred Foundry[/card] was available.

Hinterland Harbor

Here’s a black sheep. [card]Hinterland Harbor[/card] never went anywhere, and I’m guessing that’s because Simic as a color combination was never all that competitive in Standard.

Takeaways

The color of the lands available in Standard is very important. Not only does it heavily sway which color combinations are played, but it also affects the prices of available lands.

Being that the color combination of scry lands in Theros are Boros, Dimir, Gruul, Orzhov, and Simic, we can reasonably expect that shock land equivalents have already passed their peaks.

On the other hand, the scry lands that are yet to be released, Azorius, Izzet, Golgari, Rakdos, and Selesnya, may have a short span to reach new heights. I do have my doubts about [card]Steam Vents[/card], a card that has found a home in Modern more than Standard. Of the rest, I am most bullish on [card]Overgrown Tomb[/card] because of the controlling nature of the color combination ([card]Blood Crypt[/card] is more aggressive), the lack of reprints ([card]Hallowed Fountain[/card] was reprinted in the Theros event deck), and the cheaper current price ([card]Temple Garden[/card] is about $1.50 more on TCG).

Something else to note is that the prices of shock lands were invariably tied to the Innistrad buddy land equivalents. [card]Steam Vents[/card] never took off just as [card]Sulfur Falls[/card] never reached the heights that [card]Isolated Chapel[/card], [card]Clifftop Retreat[/card], and [card]Woodland Cemetery[/card] reached. However, I wouldn’t expect this trend to continue, given that scry lands favor more controlling strategies, whereas shock lands favor more aggressive strategies (buddy lands being somewhere in between).

Lastly, I would not recommend buying into [card]Overgrown Tomb[/card] because the expected gain may not be enough to make a profit. Trading is a good plan now that players have loosened their grips on shock lands. Card prices will likely have bottomed in December and January, so this will be the last chance to get in before Standard season is in full swing.

Thank you for reading this article, I hope that it was informative. Please comment below or on the article’s thread on Reddit that will be posted soon under “Spec’s Corner.” You can find me on Twitter @fyawm.

Sander van der Zee – Setting Your Goals, Part 2 (Electric Boogaloo)


Last week, I started discussing the importance of goals in your life. These principles apply to almost everything, even the act of playing and trading Magic: The Gathering. I talked about determining what is important to you in life, basing your long-term goals around it, and how to formulate them in a SMART way (Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Relevant and Time-related). Now it is time to pick up where we left off and polish your newfound goal-making skills with some finishing touches.

Make It Postive

You’ve done your brainstorming and have managed to narrow down your goals and made them SMART. It’s easy for humans to focus on the bad side of things. It’s in our nature to emphasize the negative situations in our lives and that leads us to formulate our goals the same way. Stating a goal in a positive fashion, however, helps your commitment to the goal. Rather than looking at it as if you are pulling yourself out of a bad situation, you can experience your goal as a way to grow towards a greater version of yourself.

186_wildfield

Incremental Goals

Once you’ve decided on your long-term goals, it’s time to cut them down into smaller, more grokkable steps. Having hard-to-achieve long-term goals can be intimidating. If you have decided that your goal is to accumulate $2500 by flipping [card]Birthing Pod[/card]s within the next five years, you need to set some incremental goals to get there. Setting smaller goals that are directly related to your long-term goal help you maintain your focus and allow you to adjust your strategy.

Rather than shoot for highly-visible community positions such as streaming or podcasting professionally, I knew I had to take it slow. Going from zero to hero doesn’t come naturally and certainly can’t be expected in one week. When I decided to contribute to my community on a more local level, I knew that it was just a way to grow. A stepping stone, and at the same time, a measurable checkpoint. Had I just kept my eye on the greater goal at the top, I would have just given up. Even thinking about all the work that had to be done was overwhelming. But determining the steps that had to be taken to help out as tournament organizer was a lot easier for me to do. After I managed that, I made my next goal to become a valuable member of the Brainstorm Brewery team. And look where I am now.

Keeping Track

If you formulated your goal following the SMART ruleset, then there is really no excuse not to track your progress. Remember that M stands for measurable and T for time-related. If we want to sell $2500 worth of [card]Birthing Pod[/card]s within five years, we know exactly where we have to be at every moment along the way.

You could set a goal where you want to have $125 from your [card]Birthing Pod[/card] sales after three months. After those three months, you can check if you have met your goal, and if not, adjust accordingly. If you’re short on sales, you might want to reconsider the way you’re trying to sell your product or the price at which you buy in. If these variables are hard or impossible to change, then your last resort is to adjust your goal, either by decreasing the amount of dollars you want to earn or increasing the amount of time you give yourself.

Knowing where you are and where you need to be gives you a clear view of what has to be done to get from point A to point B. If you have no roads, how will you ever arrive in Rome? Take note of what you have to do to get to your main goal and then do the same for your incremental goals. You will find it gets a lot easier to move along toward your destination!

Purely from a financial perspective, it is wise to always keep track of whatever you buy and sell, whether you’re setting goals or not. The [card]Birthind Pod[/card] example above is a very simplistic goal. It doesn’t consider anything aside from the money earned over time as you sell copies of [card]Birthing Pod[/card]. That’s neither complicated nor elaborate. More realistically, you probably have many different cards in stock that you intend to sell and each might be part of a goal you’re trying to set.

I recommend using Excel spreadsheet to keep track of every transaction you make. Whenever you buy something, write down how much you paid. And whenever you sell something, mark that down, too. You can get fancy and incorporate other information in your bookkeeping, but that’s up to you. Having this information available to you lets you quickly see how far you are in meeting your goals, but also shows how effective you are. If you don’t do this already, I can only suggest you start now.

faiths-reward

Rewarding Your Progress

Reaching your goals may take a while, and sometimes they can end up on the backburner along the way. It’s common for people to become demotivated just because of the sheer amount of work that has to be done to reach a larger goal. It’s not wrong to reward yourself for reaching milestones on your way toward your goals! Treat yourself to something nice every time you reach one. Not only does it keep you motivated, it also gives you the opportunity to look back at what you’ve learned, and sometimes just taking a moment to think about that is a reward in and of itself.

You’ve Done It!

After all this hard work, you are well on your way towards reaching the top, or wherever you intend to go! Keeping these steps in mind will truly help you on any part of your life, even playing Magic.

Do you have stories to tell about reaching your goals or what you are currently doing to reach one? Don’t shy away, tell us in the comments!  You can always contact me on Twitter @TheMeddlingMage or by email at [email protected].